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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On January 19 2011 11:52 Ace wrote: By the way remember there are currently 12 players alive right now. and depending on the 4 night kills town loses. It comes down to if we want to let mafia or sk win. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On January 19 2011 11:57 Kenpachi wrote: I feel so doomed with only 12 people alive. the KP against town is strong as hell and at this rate, we would lose tomorrow. Kita before you die, you should take down pigsquirrel. I think the next in line would be BC and kita. the 3rd KP would probably kill me or Jimbo. I would assume that the surviving player of these lucky 4 will be mafia. If town wants to win, kita will shoot bum. Plain and simple. town can lynch pig/decon/halpo at their leisure. sk may or may not shoot one of them, but if amber followed my plan he roleblocked halpo. IE bum is the cpr (provided sk doesn't have the role). Halpo is then parity, decon is cc and pig just showed hes red / pod. kita shoots bum, mafia loses a kp, if kita gets shot like we think he will, thats two kp a night gone, leaving town ahead to lynch the mafia / sk and win this game. IT hinges on offing a kp in tonights hits though. IF sk was nice he would shoot halpo, and kita would shoot bum, but chances are kita will shoot at me again, mafia off two townies and sk coin clips on offing a townie / a red. | ||
aidnai
United States1159 Posts
- Haplo is CPR? - Mafia and SK doubled up on someone? - Someone survived the third hit? Kita did you take another hit? Even if we hit a KP role, I don't think that stops their hit from going through. And yes, Kita is pretty much doomed, but his shot should still go through. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
as for stopping their hits from going through? the plan was to drop their kp last night bum would die and flip cpr, or halpo would be blocked and if kp dropped he was cpr. pig as we can see was mafia pod. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On January 19 2011 12:53 aidnai wrote: Can our two information roles claim what they found last night? ....... parity cop is red, rolecop isn't rolecop its cpr doctor. or the sk is cpr doctor, regardless bum/halpo are red. Their claims would mean nothing. | ||
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HaploPaithan
United States100 Posts
This puts Jimbo and Bum as town and Pigsquirrel as Scum obviously. Right now it would seem that it is 7/4/1. BC has picked out myself, bum, pigsquirrel and deconduo as the 4 scum. If i had to guess, I'd figure that Jumbo also agrees with him. If that is the case then scum will lose without the help of the SK. If i were scum, i certainly wouldn't be relying on the SK to help me win. It would be much better to wait a day and then use PoD. Scum had no guarentee about who Kita would kill. It seemed likely that kita would potentially target Bum or Deconduo last night. This seems like a big gamble and not worth waiting another night or 2 to reveal the PoD. It would have required no roleblock on the CPR, no protections on their targets, and for Kita to not hit one of us. I think we should be looking elsewhere. I'm looking at BC pretty heavily here. He is using a scare tactic of scum outright winning if we don't do as he says. This isn't really the case. We know for sure who a scum is, pigsquirrel. Yet he doesn't want to use the town's only KP on a guaranteed scum hit. He also considers Deconduo to be a scum, yet again isn't pushing for his death. Instead he wants to kill off Bum with the town KP and is hoping that the SK will kill off myself. The 2 players on his list least likely to be scum. If town and SK KP are used tonight to kill off Townies, then the game will go 3/4/1. Pretty much cementing a mafia win. We need to watch out for this. Other players that are potentially scum could include Misder, Beaneather, Aidnai, or Kenpachi. Though my personal opinion is that Aidnai is a town who is being swayed by BC. I will agree that Deconduo is probably scum. So if anything we should be playing it safe and killing off pigsquirrel or deconduo. Perhaps SK will help us, perhaps not. I'd personally say to kill Pigsquirrel tonight in hopes that Deconduo is actually the SK. Deconduo tomorrow. Sorry if this post is a mess. Took awhile to write and I don't like the way it turned out. But hopefully you guys understand what I'm trying to say. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On January 19 2011 13:22 HaploPaithan wrote: I was not roleblocked last night. So it must have been bum who was. I viewed pigsquirrel last night and got the result different. I was hoping to determine if he was scum or not based on the view. Then lynch tomorrow so they wouldn't use PoD. Too bad they used it already. This puts Jimbo and Bum as town and Pigsquirrel as Scum obviously. Right now it would seem that it is 7/4/1. BC has picked out myself, bum, pigsquirrel and deconduo as the 4 scum. If i had to guess, I'd figure that Jumbo also agrees with him. If that is the case then scum will lose without the help of the SK. If i were scum, i certainly wouldn't be relying on the SK to help me win. It would be much better to wait a day and then use PoD. Scum had no guarentee about who Kita would kill. It seemed likely that kita would potentially target Bum or Deconduo last night. This seems like a big gamble and not worth waiting another night or 2 to reveal the PoD. It would have required no roleblock on the CPR, no protections on their targets, and for Kita to not hit one of us. I think we should be looking elsewhere. I'm looking at BC pretty heavily here. He is using a scare tactic of scum outright winning if we don't do as he says. This isn't really the case. We know for sure who a scum is, pigsquirrel. Yet he doesn't want to use the town's only KP on a guaranteed scum hit. He also considers Deconduo to be a scum, yet again isn't pushing for his death. Instead he wants to kill off Bum with the town KP and is hoping that the SK will kill off myself. The 2 players on his list least likely to be scum. If town and SK KP are used tonight to kill off Townies, then the game will go 3/4/1. Pretty much cementing a mafia win. We need to watch out for this. Other players that are potentially scum could include Misder, Beaneather, Aidnai, or Kenpachi. Though my personal opinion is that Aidnai is a town who is being swayed by BC. I will agree that Deconduo is probably scum. So if anything we should be playing it safe and killing off pigsquirrel or deconduo. Perhaps SK will help us, perhaps not. I'd personally say to kill Pigsquirrel tonight in hopes that Deconduo is actually the SK. Deconduo tomorrow. Sorry if this post is a mess. Took awhile to write and I don't like the way it turned out. But hopefully you guys understand what I'm trying to say. Hi, im the resident asshole, posting logically is something I have done overall all game. Now, lets break your post down. BC has picked out myself, bum, pigsquirrel and deconduo as the 4 scum. If i had to guess, I'd figure that Jumbo also agrees with him. If that is the case then scum will lose without the help of the SK. Now lets look at the numbers. 7v4v1 Tonight mafia hits two players. 5v4v1 sk hits town 4v4v1 town hits mafia 4v3v1 Now, if town doesn't kill cpr in the red that dies it comes down to a lynch. Lets say town lynches a mafia 4v2v1 IF town misses cpr again 2v2v1 SK shoots a town 1v2v1 mafia controls vote basically, sk lynched mafia wins, town lynched sk wins. TOWN can't win if sk helps mafia Town vig will not live past its one hit as well. now lets start over 7v4v1 Town hits mafia sk hits mafia 7v2v1 mafia hits x2 town 5v2v1 Now, in this position, SK will not shoot a mafia as he will lose. Town must now lynch cpr mafia (lets say it does for this part). 5v1v1 mafia shoots town sk shoots town 3v1v1 Town lynches mafia 3v0v1 sk hits town 2v0v1 town lynches sk town win. IF town misses the cpr mafia in its lynching above 5v1v1 mafia x2 hits town sk hits town 2v1v1 town cannot win, mafia or sk win based off lynch. Mafia can win without SK helping them, town cannot win without sk helping them. Your logic is fundamentally incorrect. Next, kenpachi and aidnai are essentially confirmed. AS much as kita annoys the fuck out of me for shooting at me, he is confirmed almost 90%. Eiii is confirmed town based on red sniping his role (sup halpo). There are 4 confirmed of the 7 town players. My actions at this point should have put me on that list, makes 5. Now, whos left, jimbo, misder, bum, decon, beneather, halpo, and pig. Of this list, we know decon is red, as is pig. 2 red jimbo misder, bum, beneather, halpo. of these 5, we know 2 are red, 1 is sk. Bum said he was going to follow the town plan, as did halpo, both did not. Both have sat back and lurked the thread "actively reading" yet not being helpful or participating. They also both have "investigative roles" that have all been used on players who have claimed/alignment been clearly displayed before they posted, ie faked results. This makes bum and halpo the last two reds. jimbo, misder, beneather, 2 town, 1 sk. OF the three of them, beneather and jimbo could possibly be the sk, I don't believe misder is, as well, his play style just screams his regular play as town. You now push that i don't want town to off the confirmed reds. GUESS what. Unless the red cpr doctor dies, town cannot win. Period. You can say its a mafia move, but unless the mafia cpr dies, the town loses. The numbers show it. Now obviously above the mafia could fail to hit a townie and shoot the sk keeping one townie alive longer, but the numbers show if all kp goes through. Town has to play a perfect game, or it loses, and it needs the sk to help to do it. By posting that the scum needs the sk to win just proves my point that you are red. Since you explicitly state decon and pig are obviously red, then link yourself to bum as "the two most unlikely reds" while posting the most scum filled post you have posted so far you just revealed your entire team to the town, while attempting very poorly to bus me. You also post your list of "scum" who include 2 confirmed townies, and two more confirmed town. Cool thanks. With your information beneather, aidnai, kenpachi, and misder are not mafia. We know kita is town, and we know based on your role steal/"checks" aidnai is not mafia, and based on actions we know jimbo and and I aren't mafia. You confirmed your entire team, and now all we have to do is analyze the sk. Ok town, if you refuse to see everything now, I honestly don't know what else it will take. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
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HaploPaithan
United States100 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On January 19 2011 14:03 HaploPaithan wrote: I'll respond to this in the morning/afternoon when I have more time to think. I'm tired and need to sleep. IE "ill respond to this when my team figures out how to respond to it" | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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JimboSilvers
United Kingdom167 Posts
Anyway, what are you guys thinking? Shooting obvious town over near confirmed mafia is just abominable play. Its quite obvious BC and I are both town at this point, but nobody seems to listen to either of us and decides its a smart idea to shoot BC? Twice? Congratz. As BC kindly pointed out, all the mafia are out in the open. So instead of shooting obvious townies, please shoot mafia, k? | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 19 2011 15:22 aidnai wrote: So, where the hell is everyone? Deconduo has been MIA since he hammered fishball, bumatlarge hasn't posted for two days, Misder is damn near 24 hours (again), Jimbo posted one time since he got back from his weekend and it's already been a day since that post, and beneather disappeard again too! I'm sorry. I'm sure you missed me a lot  Though, I don't really have much to say, cause I'm of split opinion. All I have to say is that kita needs to hit CPR tonight cause hes probably going to die tonight. And that the best course of action for the SK is to help town because of all this confusion. Mafia knows who their scum mates are, meaning that in the endgame, they are likely to be much more organized than town (esp. in the state we are in now). If SK targets town, mafia will basically be more likely to lynch SK just due to plain probability. If SK targets mafia on the otherhand, town still doesn't know who the mafia are or the SK, and there is still confusion. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
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Pigsquirrel
United States615 Posts
On January 19 2011 15:23 JimboSilvers wrote: Wow pigsquirrel is mafia? I was leaning more toward aidnai before given how he "randomly" saved Haplo when Barundar was clearly a better prot target. Glad I at least surprised somebody. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 19 2011 13:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Hi, im the resident asshole, posting logically is something I have done overall all game. Now, lets break your post down. BC has picked out myself, bum, pigsquirrel and deconduo as the 4 scum. If i had to guess, I'd figure that Jumbo also agrees with him. If that is the case then scum will lose without the help of the SK. Now lets look at the numbers. 7v4v1 Tonight mafia hits two players. 5v4v1 sk hits town 4v4v1 town hits mafia 4v3v1 Now, if town doesn't kill cpr in the red that dies it comes down to a lynch. Lets say town lynches a mafia 4v2v1 IF town misses cpr again 2v2v1 SK shoots a town 1v2v1 mafia controls vote basically, sk lynched mafia wins, town lynched sk wins. TOWN can't win if sk helps mafia Town vig will not live past its one hit as well. now lets start over 7v4v1 Town hits mafia sk hits mafia 7v2v1 mafia hits x2 town 5v2v1 Now, in this position, SK will not shoot a mafia as he will lose. Town must now lynch cpr mafia (lets say it does for this part). 5v1v1 mafia shoots town sk shoots town 3v1v1 Town lynches mafia 3v0v1 sk hits town 2v0v1 town lynches sk town win. IF town misses the cpr mafia in its lynching above 5v1v1 mafia x2 hits town sk hits town 2v1v1 town cannot win, mafia or sk win based off lynch. Mafia can win without SK helping them, town cannot win without sk helping them. Your logic is fundamentally incorrect. Next, kenpachi and aidnai are essentially confirmed. AS much as kita annoys the fuck out of me for shooting at me, he is confirmed almost 90%. Eiii is confirmed town based on red sniping his role (sup halpo). There are 4 confirmed of the 7 town players. My actions at this point should have put me on that list, makes 5. Now, whos left, jimbo, misder, bum, decon, beneather, halpo, and pig. Of this list, we know decon is red, as is pig. 2 red jimbo misder, bum, beneather, halpo. of these 5, we know 2 are red, 1 is sk. Bum said he was going to follow the town plan, as did halpo, both did not. Both have sat back and lurked the thread "actively reading" yet not being helpful or participating. They also both have "investigative roles" that have all been used on players who have claimed/alignment been clearly displayed before they posted, ie faked results. This makes bum and halpo the last two reds. jimbo, misder, beneather, 2 town, 1 sk. OF the three of them, beneather and jimbo could possibly be the sk, I don't believe misder is, as well, his play style just screams his regular play as town. You now push that i don't want town to off the confirmed reds. GUESS what. Unless the red cpr doctor dies, town cannot win. Period. You can say its a mafia move, but unless the mafia cpr dies, the town loses. The numbers show it. Now obviously above the mafia could fail to hit a townie and shoot the sk keeping one townie alive longer, but the numbers show if all kp goes through. Town has to play a perfect game, or it loses, and it needs the sk to help to do it. By posting that the scum needs the sk to win just proves my point that you are red. Since you explicitly state decon and pig are obviously red, then link yourself to bum as "the two most unlikely reds" while posting the most scum filled post you have posted so far you just revealed your entire team to the town, while attempting very poorly to bus me. You also post your list of "scum" who include 2 confirmed townies, and two more confirmed town. Cool thanks. With your information beneather, aidnai, kenpachi, and misder are not mafia. We know kita is town, and we know based on your role steal/"checks" aidnai is not mafia, and based on actions we know jimbo and and I aren't mafia. You confirmed your entire team, and now all we have to do is analyze the sk. Ok town, if you refuse to see everything now, I honestly don't know what else it will take. Thanks for the compliment? You also forgot to say that you might be one of the possibilities. I still think you're SK. | ||
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