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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 13:45 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 12:14 LSB wrote:On January 11 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote: ##Aidnai
An easy choice. If hes not mafia, then fishball's speculation loses some cred, and it would seem mroe likely he picked traitor (still waiting for layoff to post his reasons why), but if aidnai is red, there could be easy scum lynches in that little pack. It's an opportunity on 1st lynch. Doesn't happen all that often. This doesn't sound like analysis Bum. It sounds like the good old "we can get information from this lynch! yay!" I want to warn people that it is incredibly easy to misread Aidnai as scum. I used him in Harry Potter to divert the lynch. I didn't realize he had played before. And I've posted my thoughts on him. Even so, The fact that he has played a game before doesn't change my opinions on him. But on the note of Copy cat taking traitor, that could be a problem. Aidnai has claimed he is vanilla from picking traitor, which means one is in the top 8. Although if a traitor is pressured he will claim he is vanilla to cause confusion. So I will present scenarios. Lynching vs Not LynchingWe lynch Aidnai 1. Aidnai is traitor. Role goes to Copy Cat, and we assume it was picked. We CPR him. --a) Copycat is killed. No more CC but no more traitors. All other blue roles are in tact as well. --b) Mafia use KP on Copycat, both recruiting him and protecting him from CPR (I believe). While this seems ideal for scum, they waste a KP as we proceed to lynch copycat. We essentially get a free night without mafia's KP, which is the most dangerous. No reason not to CPR him. 2. Aidnai is town. Traitor exists in top 8, copy cat does not get role. Same situation except we have no control over it. We will have to figure this out when we come to this. 3. Aidnai is mafia.  We do not lynch Aidnai. 1. Don't lynch anyone. Traitor among us. This would be a fine description of a god awful town. 2. Lynch someone else. --a) Top 8. Assume one of them there is the traitor. ---- They are not. Strong role dies most likely. Traitor gets pat on the back from mafia and they go out for ice cream. ---- They are. Impressive town. --b) Not top 8. Traitor still there... I believe lynching aidnai is the best option.
umm bum? Your analysis is nice and all, but you might wanna reread the thread
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 13:50 LSB wrote: Umm... I don't know if LOR actualy claimed that he picked traitor
Maybe you missed this?
On January 11 2011 13:05 LayOffRage wrote:My reasoning is that I attempted to pick the traitor role and it was already gone. so someone above my draft pick took it. If you read earlier fishball refused to pick any of the suggested roles which made me think he was most likely the one who took my role. I was very sadface 
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 13:55 Kenpachi wrote:we dont.
Jackal stated that he intended to follow the LSB plan and select copy cat. Do you guys not trust his claim?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 15:10 aidnai wrote: As for lynching LayOffRage, thing is, he can be a pretty decent scumhunter, and he's active, and he claimed green. I don't see why he needs to die before we even get a read on the players in the top 8. And fishball is almost certainly not the traitor.
Excuse my ignorance, but who is LayOffRange/how do you know?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 16:12 aidnai wrote: you're very clever jimbo. Surely you can think of some explanation where I'm still telling the truth despite your excellent sleuthing? And no, I'm not giving you any hints or talking about this any further.
If you won't address Jumbo, then how about enlightening myself instead?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 16:18 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 16:12 aidnai wrote: you're very clever jimbo. Surely you can think of some explanation where I'm still telling the truth despite your excellent sleuthing? And no, I'm not giving you any hints or talking about this any further.
EBWOP If you won't address Jimbo, then how about enlightening myself instead? 
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I suggest the real copy cat come forward with an explanation of your selection (Kenpachi?). Jackal58 could be another possible role cop target to verify he is not lying. We need to know where the copy cat lies so if you don't want to claim now, then you will probably get yourself killed the moment you are discovered.
aidnai is acting rather scummy and still hasn't addressed my request. With the possibility of a vanilla lynch and a MIA CC, I would feel safer lynching him. The absence of quality of posts and activity from LoR is suspicious as well, however.
##Vote aidnai
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 07:08 Kenpachi wrote: also, im curious to know how the hell im scummy this game?
On January 11 2011 13:55 Kenpachi wrote:we dont.
This infers that you didn't take CC since you don't know where it is. Are you denying that you are the CC? If you did select CC, could you please explain why you decided to secretly obtain it?
Also, by not selecting JOAT, if you are scum, then it allows your scum buddy further down the list to snatch it anonymously. Could you explain how this was a pro-town decision?
aidnai I will unvote you if you agree to the following conditions:
1) You use your witch role night one 2) You post the targets in the thread before the day post and allow the town to select who to save.
Even this does not clear your alignment, but either way it would benefit the town.
##unvote aidnai ##vote layoffrage
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 08:57 Kenpachi wrote: not scummy.. dunno but it seemed like he was testing out the plan to see what happens. Also, if im CC, why the fuck you lynch me? Are you 100% certain RoL is Traitor or something? i didnt see that yet.
So you confirm CC? Could you explain you decision making process when misleading the town on the location of the role?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 09:00 Kenpachi wrote: another thing id like to mention is that if im not CC, my role would go over to the real CC. For all you know, the CC might not even be in the top 8 (or is it 4)
Are you threatening the town with the hidden CC by not admitting you have it?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 09:05 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2011 09:03 kitaman27 wrote:On January 12 2011 09:00 Kenpachi wrote: another thing id like to mention is that if im not CC, my role would go over to the real CC. For all you know, the CC might not even be in the top 8 (or is it 4) Are you threatening the town with the hidden CC by not admitting you have it? No Im giving you heads up that you cant eliminate possibilities when anything can happen
So you believe it benefits the town to not know where the CC is by not telling us whether or not you selected it?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 09:07 Kenpachi wrote: Im okay with dying at night. please feel free to roleblock me and kill me at night because you do not want the CC to get my role.
So you confirm you did not select CC?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 09:07 LayOffRage wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2011 04:36 Fishball wrote:On January 12 2011 04:28 Barundar wrote:Ah thats why you all want to kill him? Honestly don't see why he is scum just beceause he tells us about a traitor further up the draft, and accuses fishball. But hey, I'm not exactly a RoL expert...  I mean, this post alone should ring a bell. LoR only has 48 posts, and is an "experienced" player huh. On January 11 2011 22:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Heading off to work and won't be back tonight, but LoR is the safest lynch target for today. Out of myself, fishball and him we are most likely the three most experienced players, and I know i'm town, which means at least one of fishball and him is most likely red. Out of those two, LoR has given the most reasons as why he is most likely a better lynch target.
But LoR being RoL has nothing to do with "us" wanting to kill him. Right now, only Bum and me have stated our reasons why we should lynch LoR. The majority is jumping on the aidnai train. Meh, since everyone knows who I am already there is no advantage to me using this name anymore. If you want to kill me before I decide to do anything credible then do it. You have all seen how I play in normal games. I will do analysis and you can try to find holes if you want and I will argue and find candidates. Since my AKA isn't hitting I will explain my reasoning in full detail. I figured if I did this earlier on it would let off that I was smurfing but since 90% of the game already knows its fine. deconduo Kenpachi kitaman27 Barundar Jackal58 Fishball Amber[Light] CubEdIn these are the players ahead of me in the draft list. One of them IS the traitor. Out of them here is how I will break it down. Kenpachi, Deconduo, Kitaman, Barndar. jackal58 and to a lessor extent cubedln are new guys and if you have the option to choose a role, traitor a non power role definitely isn't high on that list for new guys. Its really hard to play and I was looking for a fun challenge. I knew it would be harder to take the hit and get converted if I wasn't on my normal account so I was going to have to try even harder. I will also say that the above mentioned players aren't generally too crazy of people like what you would expect Chezinu to do. If Chezinu was on that list and even pandain I wouldn't feel confident calling fishball as the traitor. Now for the last two we just have Amber[LighT] and Fishball. Amber is more of a linear player as well not too crazy and if hes town he would choose a powerful town role imo. Fishball however I think is a very likely pick for the person who stole my traitor role. Fishball uses a variety of play styles to avoid establishing any pattern of play, he also never takes games fully serious so he is inherently a very difficult person to read. Fishball also blatantly said he wasn't going to follow the plan the town had been considering. If he was town aligned he probably knew he could pick the traitor role and the odds of someone else picking it were extremely low, especially high up on the draft order. Unfortunately for him I chose to pick it too which meant I narrowed the traitor down to 8 players whose play styles I was familiar with and could make an assessment call on it. If I actually got the traitor role the last thing I would of done was claim that I didn't get the role. It would lead to the exact wifom shit that is happening now of if I am lying and really got it or not and might confuse people for a little while. While if I just played chaotically and did faulty huge analysis I would likely screw with the town and draw a hit for attempting to be productive. So I think Fishball has to be the traitor. If you want to kill me to prove that I am being true feel free to do it. But everyone in this game knows that I could be useful if I was left alive and that they are taking care of the mafia's work.
Your vote on Fishball indicates that you wish to lynch the traitor day one. With the copy cat in play, could you indicate how that is a protown decision?
Also, to those abstaining, since this is a majority lynch, not voting makes you appear even more scummy that usual. Please take a stand.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 10:32 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2011 09:08 Fishball wrote:On January 12 2011 09:05 Divinek wrote: aw balls i really wanted to vote for aid and now he claims a role like that? wahhh
voting rage seems like a terrible idea if no one is helping him out to stay alive indirectly or otherwise...very unlikely for a mafia to go down so easily day 1. I mean yeah they hardly ever go down day 1 at all, but if they votes start piling up and shit doesnt start flying odds are we got the wrong chap.
oh and lookie me i got a role too, yay despite being so low.
hm didnt say anything about no voting for yourself so ill do that for now, id almost rather just throw a dart at the board for my vote since that's less inclined to slander or manipulation but i suppose it's better to actually end up with a meaningful one, until then
##vote divinek Sup Mafia. im keeping this post saved away somewhere for whenever i do manage to flip and you're wrong :D unless of course you're mafia which would be funnnnnnny, but i dont think you are...yet! but i can see why you would think that i am tehehe eh eh hm.
You stated that you pick was likely to be an honesty check. Given the fact that you received a role does that indicate that someone is lying?
On January 12 2011 09:07 Kenpachi wrote: Im okay with dying at night. please feel free to roleblock me and kill me at night because you do not want the CC to get my role.
You claim to have a really important role, yet you are fine with dying? lol?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 13:02 CubEdIn wrote:Oh please. Nobody's gonna change anything with 1-2 votes. They need to switch 4 votes to Kenpachi to change the lynch. Not gonna happen. 
Its majority lynch so no one gets lynched unless someone wants to change their vote to RoL.
Who wants to step up? I know I wouldn't pass up an opportunity to yell "hammer time"
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 12 2011 13:16 LSB wrote: I'm cool with deconduo killing LayoffRage
Why not now? Same result, except it gives the town an extra kp, no?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
@aidnai, have you agreed to post your witch results in the thread before making a selection of who to save? This helps confirm that you are indeed the witch since you wouldn't be able to identify both the mafia targets and the SK target without it and allows the town to select the best candidate to save.
@LSB, relying on roles rather than analysis? You know better than that, don't you? I'm not sure why I would be considered murkey, with the exception of the traitor plausibility which I can confirm tomorrow. I wouldn't mind a medic on myself and deconduo considering a MIA copycat with an extra kp would be extremely dangerous.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 13 2011 06:22 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2011 05:55 GGQ wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong, but we still don't know where the copy-cat is, do we?
Jackal58 claims he picked it and didn't get it. Deconduo claims he is CPR doc. Kenpachi claims he is neither JOAT nor CC but something he hasn't revealed. Kitaman's post above implied that he took vigi as LSB's plan had set for him to take. I don't think Barundar revealed whether he took Bullet Bill or not, but he claimed to not be CC.
So what does this mean? Someone is certainly lying. Why would someone lie about not having taken CC if they are town? I can only think that they must be mafia, having passed over their role to steal CC and allow a scumbuddy down the list to take their assigned role. Or possibly it's jackal58 who is the mafia, trying to get us to kill our top 4 roles. Either way, someone among our top 5 in the draft order is a liar. If I were Mafia it would have been in my best interest to claim the CC and not create any turmoil whether I received that role or not. I am vanilla townie. That fact gives us a 25% chance of lynching a red. I still think Kenpachi is the red. He lied for no apparent reason.
Or you could be a traitor which gives you an excuse for not having a role and causes one of the top four to take a hit.
No one has really mentioned who the role blocker should target. Jackal might be a decent choice if you don't have a candidate who you think is scummier. It wouldn't interfere with any pro-town roles if he is vanilla and it allows us to confirm the identity of the role blocker. (Amber?)
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I would guess Jackal is the town kp. At worst its a vanilla loss.
Looks like a role snipe/guaranteed hits.
Barundar likely has the best role Divinek is probably the most experienced player from the list.
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