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On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that.
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On October 09 2010 09:37 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. If you really don't think we can get two mafia by then....you don't have much faith in town lol. I think we can. We already have like 5 suspects, albeit I haven't yet analyzed the more expierenced players as of now. I think we'll snatch at least 2 of them.
It's not that I don't have faith in us. It's just that there's some luck involved. The ideal situation would be for us to advance in this game without relying on luck. When we open up the question of Double Lynching we give the mafia a chance to control us. Also, 5 suspects doesn't equate to 5 mafia. This seems like a big chance we're discussing.
Why hasn't anyone else come out and explained why they are silent on this issue? This affects the entire game and I want to hear what some of the quiet players are thinking. It's like we're forgetting that we're having a conversation where everyone can read and manipulate.
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I set my alarm so I could wake up before Day 2 ended and I went and checked the voting thread. I noticed that 4 players haven't put their votes in!! SINiquity, XeliN, kane]deth[ and cSc
There's no way that all 4 of you are mafia. DON'T GET MODKILLED! VOTE!!!!!! Remember even if you vote for or against Double Lynching it doesn't count as your lynch vote.
You still need to vote! If you guys lose the game for us tonight I am going to freak out.
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On October 09 2010 12:02 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 11:54 kingjames01 wrote:
I set my alarm so I could wake up before Day 2 ended and I went and checked the voting thread. I noticed that 4 players haven't put their votes in!! SINiquity, XeliN, kane]deth[ and cSc
There's no way that all 4 of you are mafia. DON'T GET MODKILLED! VOTE!!!!!! Remember even if you vote for or against Double Lynching it doesn't count as your lynch vote.
You still need to vote! If you guys lose the game for us tonight I am going to freak out. cSc is the only one who hasn't voted yet. Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 11:48 SiNiquity wrote:On October 09 2010 11:41 LSB wrote:On September 08 2010 13:30 BrownBear wrote:
2 Double Lynches remaining Interesting... Anyways, why not use one now, we got a good plan to go with for BM Wait. So we're double lynching just to lynch BM "for free" tomorrow? That's why I voted for double lynch. See this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=37#733
So does any vote count? For some reason, I'm interpreting the rules to mean that every player must vote someone to be lynched. In addition to that vote, every player may vote for a double lynch to be used the next day. Can we get a ruling on that?
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On October 09 2010 12:07 kane]deth[ wrote:
I had voted for Double Lynch already, as we would be able to lynch BM.
You are still allowed and should exercise your right to vote for someone to be lynched tonight.
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I think that we're all missing something. There are a lot of players lurking in the background and just getting by with a minimal amount of posts. I've gone EVERY player and worked out the number of total posts and when they were made.
Okay, now you'll have to try to bear with me. I originally compiled this in gedit but TL doesn't like adding extra white space so I had to take a screen shot.
+ Show Spoiler +In the picture above you can see the number of posts sub-divided into which period of play the posts were made in. The columns are divided as follows: PLAYER | PREGAME | DAY 1 | NIGHT 1 | DAY 2 | NIGHT 2 | DAY 3 | TOTAL | TOTAL - PREGAME
What you will notice is that there are several players who are only posting just enough to escape detection without having to stick their necks out. No one analyzes them because they do not say anything that is too suspicious.
From the compilation illustrated above, I'd like to propose that we look into players with very few posts and haven't been investigated yet. My criteria is anyone who is still in the game with fewer than 20 posts in-game. By scrutinizing and compelling these players to post will increase our chances to flush out any mafia hiding in the shadows.
These include:
- SouthRawrea (17)
- Amber[LighT] (14)
- kane]deth[ (9)
- RebirthOfLeGenD (1) - Replaced kane]deth[ and then subsequently replaced by kane]deth[
- NukeTheBunnys (19)
- Crisis_ (17)
- drag_ (8)
- CynanMachae (14)
- meeple (13)
- kingjames01 (20) - I included myself so that it was fair.
- ghrur (9)
Anyway, these guys should be posting. Why are they hiding and why are we allowing them to hide while we go after other players? From what I'm seeing, these guys come in and out of the game, point a few fingers and we waste a day at a time going in circles. The lease we can do is draw them out and make them justify their actions.
There are probably more conclusions that we can draw from the data that I compiled above. Feel free to dig through it and try to find more patterns.
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Okay, so after making that previous post, I went back through the thread with the intention of extraction each and every post made in-game by the players from the short list above.
I wanted to cross-reference their votes made in the other thread so that I could look for inconsistencies and patterns, complete with timelines and personal comments. I started in numerical order as dictated in the OP and I was typing this all up in a text editor but I just have to share with you something.
SouthRawrea is either a very bad Town or a very bad Mafia. Let's examine his 17 posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 05 2010 09:29 SouthRawrea wrote:
This game:
There are several differences in this setup than regular mafia games in case you can't be bothered to read the role descriptions.
1) Detective must wait until Night 2 for investigation which is frankly not helpful as it is 1 less report overall per detective.
2) Vigilante gets their shot or bat back if they overlap with mafia. Not a huge deal as an overlap isn't that likely.
3) Godfather can fake Village Idiot. Frankly as some have stated before this may be a bit OP and is a very good reason for Vigilante to save their bat.
4) Roleblocker now cannot block someone twice in a row which make DT claiming a little more viable especially once mafia loses a KP.
5) Mafia can practically save a KP for the next day while the poisoner is still alive.
Three huge things to watch out for
1) Like stated earlier, the Vigilante must not shoot until we get a Village Idiot report as it is the only way of safely killing a potential Village Idiot/Godfather as town.
2) Mafia can continuously use poison from any point in the game and have on of their players claim hit Veteran. The mafia will then be able to unleash 3 NK at any one night from that point onwards while having 1 NK the night before the claim and 2 NK for every night in between. This can be dangerous if town is too trusting of the hit claim and/or forgets about the 3 NK.
Ex: Night 2 : 1 poison 1 shot
Day 2: 1 death, mafia claims hit
Night 3: 1 poison 1 shot
Day 3: 2 deaths
Night 4 1 poison 1 shot
Day 4: 2 deaths
Night 5: 2 shot
Day 5: 3 deaths
3) Finally in a Lylo situation with Village idiot still alive, mafia can have a joint-win with the Village Idiot by lynching him. This will result in the day ending with both the Village Idiot and the Mafia's win requirements being fulfilled. (VI gets lynched and mafia # = town #)
Comment: This post reiterates content from the OP with commentary and ways the mechanics will come into play. There is no stance taken on how Day 1's lynch should take place. Overall a very shallow post. Note that SouthRawrea advocates saving the Vigilante to use against the Village Idiot. My question is what takes preference, killing a Red or the VI?
+ Show Spoiler +On October 05 2010 11:27 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 10:55 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Anyway, no. DT if you find a red bloke, I want you to build an argument for why he is mafia. Tell us what he is/is not doing that is/is not helping to town. I want you to lay into him. Be relentless. Don't pull no fucking punches. If his mama's a tramp, I want you to let us know. Shiaaaaaaat.
So ignore this kid's advice. It's weak sauce. -___-
Quiet people often get sniped by mafia toooooo. (Unless Radfield/Ace/L are playing)
Eh...Kinda got the Village idiot post. It was pretty smart thinking with Village Idiot/Mafia win....So we do gotta be careful, cuz if village idiot is down to last 3 "Hai I'm VI, lynch me!!" Mafia just have to wait for him to vote for himself. Lol. I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. I'm going to assume that last part was directed to me. This kind of situation was common on the site I used to go on and made the Village Idiot all that more dangerous. This reinforces the reasoning that I had for saving the vig shot until we're sure that we've got either the idiot or the GF.
Comment: Seems to be a passive-aggressive push for the Blues to come out of hiding. The Medic should not be "one of the quiet folk" or the mafia will know who he is. The Detective has to be a "proactive townie". Again, he says to save the Vigilante but adds that the Godfather should also be considered a good hit. How do we identify the Godfather anyway? Could be well-intentioned advice; I'm not sure. Supports ~OpZ~.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 05 2010 21:48 SouthRawrea wrote:Woot no joint wins!  )))
Comment: No substance. Expresses happiness over the ruling that VI cannot share wins. Consistent with above post.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.
We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.
Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/
What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet.
Comment: Wants inactive players to be more active. Does not support lynching inactives this early in the game. Supports voting randoms. Is neutral to NukeTheBunnys.
October 06 2010 05:07. (07:53 remaining Day 1) ##Vote Divinek
Justification: None provided. I don't understand this vote. I just checked and SouthRawrea is the only other person to have voted for Divinek including retracted votes. Was Divinek chosen randomly, then? Or is there some other reason?
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 05:46 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 05:28 Divinek wrote:On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.
We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.
Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/
What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet. you're resorting to random voting with 6 hours left in the day? -_-;;;;;;;; cord worm i dont understand the system you're proposing, should everyone roll a random number? that'd be retarded, should everyone do it and then the person who gets the most similar RNGS be lynched? that's also bad because mafia can manipulate that. Even trying to scum hunt on very little information is alot better than being able to vote WITHOUT having to justify it, this is the way a scum would want to vote. we get NOTHING from today if everyone just RNG's their vote. But if you have to justify what you're doing (all be it most people would be like ' he's inactive lols' ) it gives you something to go off of, something to compare to future instances, some SUBSTANCE. If people are making small shitty posts to justify their votes, and then not removing them when the person is like HEY GUYS im here, and we should do this this and this. Then they look bad. But if they do this with your system you can just go LOL SRY I RNG'D. Or are you gonna re rng everytime someone speaks up? -___- it's a terrible system I know your play from many games south so i wont try to go too insane from one little thing like this but cmon man. That's not how RNG works usually. A couple people will RNG rolls and the town will bandwagon  . Derp. Sorry my head wasn't all there when I was typing up that post.
Comment: Divinek points out that SouthRawrea does not justify his vote and assumes it was random. SouthRawrea says that random votes start bandwagons.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 09:45 SouthRawrea wrote:
Err BM he wasn't in TL Mafia XXX... ? I'd also like to hear more about the smurf thing :O.
Comment: Indicates he does not know the smurf's aka.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 11:20 SouthRawrea wrote:
It's funny because I remember who pro is and I'm going to leave pro be.
Comment: Indicates he does know the smurf's aka. I don't understand.
October 06 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 1) Protactinium is lynched.
Comment: The day finishes and he never switched his vote from Divinek who he "randomly" chose.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 21:46 SouthRawrea wrote:
I lol'd so so soooo hard.
Comment: No substance. Inanity.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 22:06 SouthRawrea wrote:
Hey Happy.. the game is still on .. reaad.
Comment: No substance. Also, ironic since Happy.fairytail was modkilled and replaced. "reaad"
October 07 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Night 1) bumatlarge and Infundibulum are killed.
Comment: No direct link between these three players.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 09 2010 07:00 SouthRawrea wrote:AH forgot about this game totally with getting my haircut and preparing for other stuff and what not :/. Strangely enough I find myself agreeing with BM's take on Happy.fairytail and BC. I'm going to completely ignore the Role PM controversy (with the whole TOWN vs CITIZEN thing) as even if it wasn't a miscommunication, in my opinion BM comes out on top simply because it is slightly suspicious. I would like to say this, I've been pretty inactive this day but I find that Misder's posts during day 1 have been consistent with not wanting to lynch without reasons. Eventually he gradually admits that he wouldn't want to lynch an inactive but votes for Xelin and then switches to Opz because he was inactive as well. This to me screams timid town role behaviour rather than mafia simply because his votes aren't quite bandwagonesque. In this case I believe that NuketheBunnys if mafia. Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 00:12 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
Wow spam much.
Right now I'm thinking Bill is either A. a second village idiot, or B. mafia trying to hide behind the fear of a second village idiot. Its very tempting to vote for him regardless just to get the spam to stop. I really don't understand why he is bragging about convincing everyone(myself included) to vote for the village idiot. Hurrr I made us lose on the first day Im a good player Hurrrrrrrr.
It's pretty unlikely for there to be a second village idiot so it seems that NuketheBunnys is implicitly stating that Bill is mafia. The reason why I picked this out is because one of the easiest posts for mafia to make that seems like content is giving an opinion on someone's role. (ex: He just seems like mafia to me.
As for the role PM's I think people are just trying to confuse everyone. Even if some one is helping brown bear host, I seriously doubt that he would send out half the role PMs, and some one else would send out the other half. I think anyone(read: Opz) claiming that their PM was not sent by brownbear is very suspicious. Im not going to get nitpicking about the town/townie distinction as they are commonly interchangeable.
He's unclear here about who these people are that are trying to confuse "everyone". However he seems to unknowingly (?) agree with Bill Murray that BloodyC0bbler's PM was highly suspicious yet clearly as shown elsewhere, he dislikes the way Bill Murray comes about with this information (ex:spam) which is highly understandable.
My next step is to go reread the past 7 pages completely ignoring everything Bill said and see if it makes any more sense. Then again maybe I should go back and point out the inconsistencies in his spam as Im sure I could find quite a few
Most likely an empty promise to read back but what troubles me is the fact that he's going to ignore Bill Murray's posts even though he thinks that Bill Murray is either VI or Mafia. If he was either of these would someone rather not do a post analysis? This is strange behaviour as the entire goal of mafia is to lynch the mafia but he says that he MIGHT go back and read BM's posts. Just an inconsistency I found that once again points to wanting to fit in with the town and perhaps get by to the next day undetected.
Comment: Explains inactivity. Will ignore PM controversy. However, the PM controversy makes BC look suspicious. Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives on Day 1. Inconsistent with above. Claims NukeThe Bunnys is mafia. I just read the rest of the post and his logic for this claim very tenuous. Nuke is mafia because he opposes Bill Murray. Also, insinuates that NukeTheBunnys makes "empty promises". Opposes Happy.fairytail/BloodyC0bbler. Supports Bill Murray. Supports Misder. Opposes NukeTheBunnys.
October 09 2010 07:01. (05:59 remaining Day 2) ##Vote NukeTheBunnys
Justification: NukeTheBunnys opposed Bill Murray
October 09 2010 07:27. (05:33 remaining Day 2) ##Vote Double Lynch
Justification: None provided
+ Show Spoiler +On October 09 2010 08:31 SouthRawrea wrote:I was actually pleased that NuketheBunnys made that post and then I read it. >.> Think of analysis like an English essay. The point of it is not to summarize but to prove a point. :/ A couple ways to improve this is to perhaps cut out some one liners or group them all together and provide your point for them altogether. An example of what you could've done is instead of saying "buddies up with xelin even more", you could've tried to indicate a connection between the two and went over a handful of their posts in relation to each other (When doing this just look to see if there is anything that shows an obvious connection between the two). If this is horrible advice I'm sorry but I'm pretty sure that it's good advice . You did provide a conclusion at the end which was essential but it'd be nice if you could link it all together.
Comment: Here SouthRawrea supports NukeTheBunnys post? Then proceeds to disparage his arguments because they do not prove a point? Will investigate more. Okay, I just looked up the post. It is a very detailed look into Bill Murray's behaviour in the game. I think that the evidence provided paints a very convincing picture. Why does SouthRawrea not comment on the validity of the arguments rather than the structure of the post? Also, why doesn't he quote this post so we know what he's talking about? Finally, he doesn't retract his earlier insult about delivering on "empty promises". Opposes NukeTheBunnys.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 09 2010 08:46 SouthRawrea wrote:
I can answer #1 for you Kingjames: Usually it's safer to maintain a worst case scenario mindset until we get a bit more insight into whether or not there is a roleblocker. (ex: roleblocked claim)
Comment: This was an answer to my question about why Pandain assumes the presence of the RoleBlocker. Satisfactory and illuminating.
October 09 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 2) Misder is lynched.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 05:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
Hey people that voted Misder, I'm checking you out.
Comment: Empty and completely unnecessary threat. I'm sure anyone who is innocent will do the same thing. Supports Misder (who is dead).
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote:Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU. Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea. People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me. Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 17:07 XeliN wrote:
Dr claiming there is nothing of value whatsoever to be gleaned from the earlier PM discussions due to the fact it has now been revealed that 2 types were sent is false imo. Using them as a basis for argument may have flaws but the idea that they lack any merit whatsoever is not true. In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory.
Comment: Publicly states he wants to break the rules. Implies that he does not have the ability to PM. I don't understand the "Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods". Lists the players who voted for Misder during the previous day and their justifications. Only provides a link to Pandain and summarizes the rest in his own words. Of the 6 voters, only Pandain has a good reason apparently. Expresses intent to investigate drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica and/or XeliN. Will keep an eye out for this. For good measure, he accuses (without justification) BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory. Suggests that he might die overnight. Supports Pandain. Opposes drag_. Opposes LSB. Opposes DoctorHelvetica. and/or Opposes XeliN. Opposes BloodyC0bbler. Opposes kingjames01. Opposes infinitestory.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 10:53 SouthRawrea wrote::D I'm glad you could consolidate your posts. No hard feelings? I actually think I screwed the ctrl+f thing that one time while searching. It began the search part way through. Sorry about that. It wasa genuine mistake. I was going back through what I searched through just to make sure everything was right and yeah you did express suspicion. I'm in no way clearing you though .
Comment: I think he is referring to DoctorHelvetica's response. Very slimy and takes back his earlier statement about DrH's lack of justification for voting Misder. This seems suspicious. Is neutral to DoctorHelvetica.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 10:55 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 10:51 LSB wrote:Just saying, I voted for Misder a lot earlier than Pandian did.... o.o + Show Spoiler +On October 08 2010 06:23 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 04:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Also I need to put pressure on Misder again.
You're not getting away with being inactive this time buddy. Where is the evidence for your original accusations? Why did you fingerpoint and run away? Why did you fingerpoint, call out other players for not backing up their accusations, then go inactive without backing up your accusations?
I might have changed my vote to Xelin for the time being but you're still under fire here. Glad to. Okay, First of all, I did a quick read through. There is no Opz - Misder connection. + Show Spoiler +Then suddenly misder posts this... On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote:
Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN. ... What? Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 13:03 Misder wrote:On October 05 2010 12:47 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'd rather you post your suspects now Mr. Misder?
What if mafia slay you at night?
=/ I think I rather wait. First, my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence. Plus, I'm still looking at different play styles from previous games. Second, this way, the mafia doesn't know whether I'm right or wrong, so if they really are scared, they're going to have to kill me If you guys really want, I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1. Which reminds me, how do we decide which inactive to lynch? I made this mistake last game, I fingerpointed when I was mafia. The problem was that I didn't have that good of an argument to start off with. I just did a "I'm pretty sure that they are mafia" Misder, can you elaborate for us who do you think is scummy? I know you mentioned Infun, but your analysis was shaky and wrong. On October 09 2010 11:18 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead. Well this is what I had a while ago, but I never posted "~Opz~ Ok, I’m looking at him from the perspective of Mafia XXX, the most recent normal game. In this game ~Opz~ was tracker. I guess this isn’t the most amazing analysis, and most people also act differently from a green townie and a blue, but I’ll try. In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on. On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days... He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers." So my analysis of him before was when he was a blue role, pretty much irrelevant... I didn't look back at games even older, when I should have. When I actually looked at him more in dept than my intuition and one day of the game where he was blue, I've come to a conclusion that ~Opz~ is most likely town. This is his quote from Mafia XXIII where he was actually townie. On July 18 2010 15:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:On July 18 2010 08:12 Jayme wrote:On July 18 2010 08:03 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
RNG lynch is dumb because you have more of a chance to land on a townie, and then he could be a helpful townie.
if we lynch an inactive we're killing someone who probably would not have helped us anyway
however, i don't want to lynch someone that would just get modkilled since that's obviously a waste.
Bill, how many votes can someone miss before they get zapped? As far as I know they can't miss any votes at all. We have more of a chance to land on a townie with any day 1 method we choose simply due to the fact that there are 24 townies and 6 mafia...there is no way of avoiding this. As a matter of fact I would say we have a better chance of hitting a good red player through RNG because I mean...who's to say that this "good townie" isn't just a red being a good townie. I understand lynching an inactive is killing someone who wouldn't have helped anyway but you're still doing just that...just about guaranteeing a green lynch which is completely pointless. As I said before I'm willing to go with either, there isn't much we could do. The issue I see with RNG is verifying if it's actually RNG. Actually....I'm done for this....Let me read a little more and we'll see who I want to die.... Also, I'm tired of these idiotic plans. We can pm. Dt, check someone PM them, pass turn, check someone PM them and the other person, pass turn. Quit playing like idiots and realize the benefits of having PMs....Nubby ass mafioso. And go back and look at games with PM's day one, no body does anything that day... The best thing I could say is everyone Roleclaim to me, and lynch me today...Or wait til tomorrow and do it. I'd inform of match ups, over counts, and die out as proof. How does that sound? I can send the PM out, and inform before death of everyone who doesn't respond, over counts of roles, ect. ect. I could be checked night one if that would be a problem, (wouldn't recommend organized multi checking though) and lynched day 2. Even if I was god father, god father would be out and too many blues to snipe with a list of roles and over claims. *yawn* But I don't really wanna die too bad, or abuse how easy this game could be. ~Opz~ has a condescending tone this mafia game, just like he does in this game. When I was reading through his posts in XXIII, its mostly yelling at people. Also, I believe that he is town because of he said that Artanis wrote Townie on his PM. If he was mafia, he wouldn't make such a huge claim. As for BM, I believe that he is VI. BM spammed most of Mafia XXX also, and he was ninja then. Question, what is the point of using an important vig shot on a supposed VI? Can't we just not lynch the VI and be done with? Or are we just afraid that then, mafia members can pose as VI and not get lynched? So question: Can't the mafia not kill BM if they believe that BM is not VI? Also, if BM is VI and tomorrow we double lynch him, don't we also lose? We're are depending on the mafia for this lynch to work, and I don't really like it. Also, mafia wouldn't be killing who they believe to be townies, and BM is definitely not playing like he is blue This analysis is junk and you know it is too. I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot. Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you. And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment. Who knows, maybe Pandian is right The double lynch questionDouble lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result) We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day. VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred I voted for him because his analysis was junk. Turns out I was wrong about him :S Other junky posts were available at the time . I just felt you didn't have as good of a raisin bran muffin. (reason)
Comment: LSB defends his vote and SouthRawrea implies that LSB should have chosen someone else.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 11:01 SouthRawrea wrote:
EBWOP: Sorry for triple post but post 1 is directed toward DrH and Post 2 at LSB
Comment: No substance. Confirms that his previous two posts were directed at DoctorHelvetica and LSB as I thought.
October 10 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Night 2) Pandain is killed.
Conclusion
- Casts vote on Day 1 without justification
- Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon"
- Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives
- Implies he does not know the smurf but in the following post says he remembers who the smurf is
- Accuses NukeTheBunnys of being mafia since he opposes Bill Murray
- When NukeTheBunnys replies, SouthRawrea dismisses all arguments by saying it's not in an essay form. Calls it "good advice".
- After Misder is lynched and revealed to be Town, SouthRawrea quickly aligns himself and makes an empty threat
- SouthRawrea publicly aligns himself to Pandain citing that he was the only one with a good "raisin bran muffin"
- In the same post SouthRawrea accuses drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica, and/or XeliN, BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory
- Suggests that he might be a target that night
- 2 hours and 15 minutes later Pandain is killed
- No post since
Together in one place, these posts paint SouthRawrea into a very small corner. I propose that the town takes action. I want SouthRawrea to explain himself.
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However, I want to raise the issue of Double Lynch again. Amber[LighT], SiNiquity and I expressed our doubts about voting to exercise our right to Double Lynch. Instead we were met with assurances that we would gather enough information before the vote to justify using it.
Okay... So, what information did we get? Seriously, we have less than a day left and we're going to be lynching two players, quite possibly two innocents. What did we learn? What is our plan? So far all I've heard is that we can learn from a Medic save, a Detective role check, the lynch and any mafia hits.
DID WE ACTUALLY LEARN ANYTHING???
The only new information is
- Misder was Green (fact) and
- ~OpZ~ claimed to be hit (unconfirmed).
On October 11 2010 07:52 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Can someone explain to me why we voted for a double lynch? I could have sworn we were going to get this insane amount of information, yet from what it seems we're still running around with our heads cut off.
Like what the hell happened yesterday? The day seemed pretty cut and dry. Vote Xelin and then see if mafia touches BM. Was this plan not sound? Then someone suggested a double lynch. I wasn't keen on the idea of doing this, and I vocally said going for a double lynch so early was a terrible idea.
So now we didn't lynch Xelin, but instead went for someone who wasn't even being discussed until the last 12 hours of the day (since I checked frequently up until then). What seems to be the plan? Where does Xelin sit on the list? BM? Did we just forget about them.
For the second lynch, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today. I'm kinda in his boat right now... for the double lynch I mean. It doesn't seem like we have any solid suspects, although I don't share his "You guys shat in your bed, so now you gotta lie in it" mentality. So instead of whining, I'm gonna do some analysis... I really disagree with caring about Opz claim... there's no reason to atm... he's been pretty vocal about everything, so if he's red then it will eventually be his downfall and hopefully lead to his comrades... I'm treating him as town, but with a close watch... Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 09:04 Pandain wrote:
Mmmm in case I die I leave to you my last thoughts:
3. Bill Murray
5. SouthRawrea
6. Amber[LighT]
8. Divinek-albeit I do have suscpcions
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
13.~OpZ~
14.DoctorHelvetica
15.infinitestory
17.Happy.fairytail BloodyC0bbler
18.NukeTheBunnys
19.Crisis_
20.drag_
21.CynanMachae :p
22.meeple
23.kingjames01
24.ghrur
Pandain left us his list... not saying its right, and it very well might not be... but we know its genuine town-aligned and not there to lead us down some wrong track. I'm not sure why he felt his life was in danger... but being a prominent player I'm sure had something to do with it... Yraghhh... alright... I'll do an analysis on Crisis_ and why I think he's probably mafia but for now I need to play euchre and drink beer with my opa... I was planning on doing the analysis now... but hell I'm not gonna turn that down...
Do not disregard ~OpZ~'s claim! I believe his claim. Based on his play thus far, I have no reason to doubt him. How can we make it safe for him to explain what happened? We need the information. It's just about the only new piece of information that we can use to make a good decision tonight.
Finally, the other thing that people keep saying is that we can use the second lynch to get rid of Bill Murray. Do you guys even realize that the Double Lynch vote just barely passed with the minimum necessary amount of votes? Did you guys notice that Bill Murray cast one of those votes? If he knew he was going to be lynched, why would he support it? He could have retracted his vote and he'd be safe. Does he want to be lynched? Maybe there really is another Village Idiot in the game. It would be consistent with the way he's played this game. DO NOT LYNCH BILL MURRAY WITHOUT A DETECTIVE CHECK.
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Oops, we also learned Pandain was Green and dumb-ass, lazy cSc (who has yet to come and apologize for being mod-killed) was a Veteran.
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I apologize if I'm out of line but it's so frustrating when I put in so much time and effort into playing my first game and then it gets all screwed up with a modkilled Blue.
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SouthRawrea's explanation for his posts have satisfied me for the moment. However, that leaves me still with the problem of finding two people to vote for.
I still think CynanMachae is mafia. Otherwise he would have voted to save himself. He seemed to predict the bandwagon of Protactinium before it happened. This is the all the proof that I need to declare CynanMachae mafia.
Amber[LighT], you support the lynching of a "almost confirmed" Blue. If you have can find any proof or can present a good argument that he is deceiving us then present it. Otherwise it seems like you're attempting to finish off a botched hit.
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On October 12 2010 07:17 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I didn't bring up Opz as a suspect because I think absolutely 100% he is lying. I want people to think about EVERYTHING that's going on. It's posts like yours (Opz) which quickly drown in this game because people are so caught up in hypothetical nonsense. We want to focus on how the game progresses day by day, yet the minute someone dares to challenge what someone says the town is in uproar because it's just preposterous. Are you guys aware that this game is entirely based upon deceit? You must be at least a little bit suspicious. Does that mean lynch Opz? No! It means think about everything that's presented. Then we won't waste double lynches like this.
On October 12 2010 07:20 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Just looked at the vote tally if I die tonight this town is more stupid than I originally thought, and this mafia team is very well established. How I went from not even having a mention to beating someone in votes to a person who should have died yesterday is beyond my own comprehension.
Amber[LighT], you haven't presented anything that we can take to be SOLID evidence against ~OpZ~. If it's just a hunch, then that's not a lot to go on...
On October 12 2010 07:17 Amber[LighT] wrote:
This won't end well if I get lynched
On October 12 2010 07:20 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Maybe my outlandish and ridiculous statements will be taken more seriously.
Are you soft-claiming Blue?? What is it that you're trying to say? At the very least, who are your suspects?
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On October 12 2010 07:58 ghrur wrote:
Also, I'm inactive because I'm in 11th grade with the PSAT coming up. I kind of want to get National Merit Scholar Seminfinalist so I'm trying to spend as much time as I can studying for it. Therefore, sorry if I'm not active. I need to study. >_<
Hey, no we can respect that! =) That's a really great goal to strive for. Good luck with your exams! Just make sure to log your votes so you don't get modkilled!
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On October 15 2010 12:12 SiNiquity wrote:
w/e. my gut says BC. He's too strong a player (from the way everyone's treating him anyway, I only played in one other game with him) to be making the mistakes he has: ignored dr. h analysis / my response despite alluding to it in his post (the "I'm not perfect bit" after I railed on DrH, probably overly so, for messing up some things), redoes analysis half-assed, some stupid shit in there like "wtf perspective?" and pads his post with tons of quotes. Then ignores my response to his analysis entirely (yet ironically complains that people ignore him when he posts) and continues to name drop me as a lynch candidate all over the place. There's also the mafia hitting every strong player (opz, LSB, infundi, bum, pandain and even BM) but somehow BC's still alive. Divinek too, despite playing a seemingly very pro-town game. After so many mislynches I'm very distrustful of the huge lead South has had this entire day. So I'm going with my gut, because this lynch feels like every other lynch this game. And those haven't gone so well.
Well, I agree with you that we need to get an explanation about the mafia's connections to the bandwagons, I don't agree with you about BloodyC0bbler. In your post above, you could replace the name BC with any other name from this game and it would still be true. It seems like you're just trying to find a reason to cast a vote. We're pretty much all in the same place now as no one is sure about the identities of the Red players...
Anyways, I'm going to vote for CynanMachae again. I've been voting for him and I want the town to examine my logic. Since not very many people seem to think he's suspicious maybe I didn't present my case well enough. IF anyone can defend his actions, then I'll look somewhere else for the next vote. However, I STILL think he stands out as the best shot we have to catch a Red. Then we can dig through his history in this game to find his fellow Reds.
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Where the hell are NukeTheBunnys, kane]deth[, and Crisis_???
VOTE, DAMN IT! You're going to lose us the game!!
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It's possible that all 3 modkills are mafia...
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Three detectives? I've only seen 1 so far, Crisis_...
Who are the other 2?
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On October 15 2010 14:52 CynanMachae wrote:Me and DrH, but that's if DrH wasn't the godfather and I got unlucky << @inf well at least you protected one hit
How did you know infinitestory was the medic???
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Never mind, I see, you were the detective and you checked him... hehe.
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Why didn't Crisis_ claim?? That would have put you guys back in the game. Since everyone was suspicious of BC anyway, it would have been an easy lynch. We (mafia) wouldn't have been able to save him. We were discussing the possibility of trying to save him but I think that would have put us all at risk...
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/AygC7.jpg)
