EPTGodfather Mafia - Page 5
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On July 07 2010 13:13 YellowInk wrote: The town plan in summary: Do not roleclaim Lynch citi.zen Roleblock youngminii Jail youngminii No coroner usage Detectives spy on whomever you think is most likely to be godfather besides citi.zen ** Mad Hatter bomb Bill Murray Ignore Bill Murray's posts Scratch your head at Chezinu Smile if you're town, this game is probably about to end in victory ** This is because we want to plan for our worst case scenario - the 10% I alluded to earlier. If youngminii is playing us and he is in cahoots with citi.zen, we're still on godfather hunt. If citi.zen is really the godfather, we practically can't lose.+ Show Spoiler [Why we can't lose] + youngminii will get to keep getting to DT people and the mafia won't be able to target their hits effectively. After 2-3 nights following, if he hasn't found any scum, youngminii will give us a list of confirmed townies that he'll reveal which will ensure our victory even if he gets killed. We'll be able to mop up with a double lynch endgame. All of this is even assuming we have no other roles in the game besides 1 jailer and youngminii as our DT. I'm sure we have much more than this. Just want to say, nothing has changed since this plan, and it seems like the best. The one modification being talked about is if we should RB youngmini. I think both methods are about even. I am 99% sure he is town, so leaving it off him so we can get an extra check in while RBing someone else makes sense. Other than that caveat, only the second item on the list is currently passed. I would recomend all blues follow this revised plan. | ||
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If there is no kill then suspicion falls on youngminii If there is a kill then most likely we need to keep youngminii jailed and start systematically DTing /RBing suspected mafia. Now our RB died, and it is such a powerful role I highly doubt we had 2, but maybe the dream catcher caught it. | ||
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My early #1 thought was that YellowInk could be the recruit as well, but assuming Ace followed the RB plan and RBed YI then they wouldn't have gotten the kill (which they did). of course he could have been recruited later, but his actions haven't seemed to change so I doubt it. | ||
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On July 10 2010 12:29 DCLXVI wrote: where is darth? I think he was the mafia target. | ||
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On July 10 2010 22:54 zeks wrote: i would've had to be RBed to be recruited in which case i would've had to get RBed by the roleblocker and recruited the same night note that both the roleblocker and GF have no way of communicating with each other The roleblocker is dead as well (night 2 I believe) so the % chance of this happening is so low I think it is worth the gamble (we can have DT verify it later if needed). since it would have had to happen night 1 or 2, and if the plan was followed night 1 YI was Rbed there is ~ a 1/200 chance that it could have occurred. | ||
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My only worry is that he might be a high priority target for the mafia Thoughts? | ||
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On July 12 2010 09:27 DCLXVI wrote: Bye YI  one less active, productive poster congrats town I don't know if we even deserve to win anymore. Very lucky DT check won us the game (hopefully) Dont forget the modkill of the traitor/mafia as well. | ||
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On July 12 2010 11:17 Chezinu wrote: Hit List Updated: 2. 3. 5. BloodyC0bbler 18. 19. rastaban You guys are really good at this game. You are doing great! If this is accurate I am all for a double lynch of Myself and BC. I need to double check to make sure that it makes sense though. | ||
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On July 12 2010 21:33 zeks wrote: maybe AFJ planned to be modkilled so the bomb would go off? :S dunno kinda gay w/e if so that would be a hilarious play. getting some extra kills in. | ||
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That gives us this list 1. Chezinu - Dream Catcher/Hatter No counter claim ~75% confirmed 4. zeks - Mason (No counter claim - confirmed) 5. Thegilaboy (BloodyC0bbler) - Townie/Mafia 7. Bill Murray - Jailer/ Vet (DT confirmed) 10. DCLXVI - Townie/Mafia 11. Hesmyrr - jailed by BM 2 nights in a row (N1 recruit possibility but very slim statistically 95% confirmed if BM is town) 12. youngminii - DT (No counter claim, gave us GF - confirmed) 19. rastaban - Townie/Mafia Possibles: 5. Thegilaboy (BloodyC0bbler) - Townie/Mafia 10. DCLXVI - Townie/Mafia 19. rastaban - Townie/Mafia If DT checks BC as is the plan then if he is town we can double lynch DC and myself, if he is red then we get a confirmed mafia and can decide if it is better to go for a double lynch and and investigate the last one or not. If BM Jails YoungMini then we are guaranteed at least these 2 DT checks so we should be fine. I think this is pretty much the plan everyone is already stating so I am not realy adding much I just wanted to fact check it and make sure that it works out. If I was wrong and DCLXVI is confirmed then this should be even quicker. | ||
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worst case right now is 5/2 after night kill, I think we got one mafia with the 3 that just died so probably 6/1 we have to kill at least 1 mafia tomorrow if we didn't get 1 tonight. lets say worse case, that chez is mafia after 2x lynch tomorrow we would have 4/1 and then 3/1 after night kill. which would be enough to hang Chez if we were wrong about him. The only way this doesn't work is if zekz, BM, youngminii, are the goons. If that is so then we probably have already lost. | ||
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I think the plan can still work as long as we get vote 2x lynch tomorrow. worse case say you hang me and C and D are mafia you would have 4-2, and then 3-2 the next day after night kills. execute both of them and it should be a win (plus you could DT someone else as well just in case.) We just have to make sure that the double lynch goes through. | ||
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5 are left tomorrow: youngminii, zeks, DCLXVI, BM DTed: BloodyC0bbler They can then lynch BC if he is mafia. once again the only way it should fail is if Young is a goon. The plan seems solid. | ||
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On July 13 2010 03:24 Bill Murray wrote: don't know why people are saying hesmyrr is 95% or something. he could have been recruited night 0 statistically, the odds of him being recruited on night 0 are 1/19. 1/19 = just a fraction over 5% which means he had a 94.xxx% chance of not being recruited. We also know that L was recruited either night 1 or night 0, if L was night 0 then there is a 100% chance he wasn't recruited. so he either 100% townie or 95% townie, if you combine those you actually get an even higher chance he is townie. Now of course based on his playstyle and citizens recruit methods that number could change due to personal preference, but statistically speaking these numbers are right. | ||
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Chance he was recruited: 1/19 = 5.263% Chance he is townie 18/19 = 94.74% because 1 out of 19 people were recruited meaning 18 ot of 19 people were townie then I think we should still be wary, but 94.74% are the kind of odds I like. | ||
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On July 13 2010 04:23 zeks wrote: If we analyze L's posting behaviour we should be able to tell whether he got recruited 0 or 1. If we come to a conclusion that he was recruited at night 1 we lynch Hesmyrr. Wait so BM is vet + jk? The problem is that L was traitor, so regardless of when he was recruited his posts should have had the same agenda, the winning of the mafia. BM is most likely JK, or someone out there is. I think he is claiming vet sometimes to confuse the mafia from targeting him. We know he is blue so that should be good enough, if he is jk then the vet is probably hidden, if he is vet then jk is still hidden. as long as the jk keeps youngminii alive to night we should have a town win regardless of if, they his the jk tonight. | ||
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