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United States2294 Posts
On July 03 2010 10:59 L wrote: Roleblocker acts during the night. We have 24 hours to talk about this. You are right, so I guess I would say if the RB has to leave before it is resolved go with this plan. Otherwise, wait it out until we are sure on what is the best plan. | ||
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We are forecasting our move. If I was mafia I would love that, because the only way it would work is if one of the three was the day 1 pick. Worse yet, we wouldn't know which it was till day 3. so we are trading 3 nights of RB for at most 1 mafia. As the GF, I know that I can recruit anyone besides those 3 players for the next 3 nights and they definitely won't be role blocked. We are kind of saying, hey GF these three players you can't recruit, but feel free to grab anyone else. I might be missing something, but it just seems to useful for the mafia to know that far in advance who we are after. With the first plan we are telegraphing our move, but only 1 day in advance and we know the result the next day. They won't know who our day 2 pick is going to be so they can't be certain it isn't one of the 2 mafia members they chose. sorry, thought of this as I went for my day[9] snack and decided to post it to see if I was off track on this. | ||
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 Headed to be night all, catch up 2morrow. | ||
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In case of claim conflict, I see no viable plan to counter so except good old hard method of analytical scumhunting. This and luck seems to be the only real choices we have. Keep in mid though we can double lynch if needed. I had forgot the GF has to lives so hoping the mafia kill him isn't going to be helpful. The one defense I see against the mafia claiming to be DT is that they don't know who the GF is. they could be giving us the GF without realizing it. And I doubt the GF would attempt that since he would be targeted by the real DT the next night for sure. | ||
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I am headed to bed, I have read through the posts but will do so again and write up my thoughts as I am off tomorrow from work. | ||
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This is working on the assumption of 1 of each role, there could be more or less but I will take it as an average. of the 20 people we have 9 roles (2 anti-town) we also have 4 mason/lovers that may or may not overlap. if we do role claims we can expect ~11 townies and 7 blue roles when claiming. PROs - Mafia will be forced to blend and decide what roles to use, will probably need to claim later so as not draw attention to themselves. Will allow us to better direct blue roles Cons - Blues killed, blues recruited, some characters made useless (veteran and mad hatter to a degree), no way to confirm roles It is a risky play. If we net the GF first round then it would be worth it, but we don't have that assurance making this a big risk/reward play. I am a new player, but in this style of game no one has much experience. This makes it difficult because we can't look back and say well roleclaiming day 2 has been successful or failed. This applies to all of our plans. I think the big thing is to decide if a plan is useful or not. Currently due to the confusion the only real plan that is in use is the 1 mason roleclaim. The reason that worked is only 1 person (the mason) had to be on board for it to work. The issue with plans comes back again to not having a definitive way of deciding if a plan is good or bad. This is equally true of the mafia, which is why it is hard to find scum tells since they don't know if the plan is good for them or not. The GF doesn't know which is better either or which will make him less likely to be caught. Right now if we lynch 1 tonight and 2 the next 2 nights we have just over 1/3 chances of getting the GF. Now besides that we also have the blues, which means that a lot of the game is up to chance. If a plan doesn't give us better odds or more information than no plan then it is obviously a bad plan. Looking at the role claim Idea, it hurts the odds, but gives us more information. Since we can't verify that information, I have to think that it isn't worth the cost. | ||
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On July 06 2010 06:25 Hesmyrr wrote: Another concern of mine is that today's deadline is July 06 11:05, namely five hours from now. In order for this mass role-claim plan to be effective we need to have enough time for ALL people to claim, then organize the mess and confusion to specifically target unclear Townies; thus I propose an alternative: We mass-claim tomorrow immediately after the day begins, and vote for double lynch consecutively for two days. I know effectiveness of mass claim in this setup decreases over time, but I think this provision is necessary since partial claiming by select number of townies right before the day is about to end (followed by recruitable night) is kinda bad. I rather have one investigation off rather than none anyway. I have to leave at 7:10 so voting for Abenson. My reasoning is that, like some have said, he is confusing Townie and his probability of being godfather is just as equal as anyone else. Since I expect the game to reach critical point on d3 with all the mass claims, I rather take mysterious Joker card out of the deck before that time arrives. I agree with waiting, though I will leave it up to more experienced minds on if we should role claim tomorrow. | ||
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Thanks! | ||
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On July 06 2010 12:32 Divinek wrote: i started out coroner Thanks,that is interesting I wonder what if any other double roles we have.... | ||
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On July 07 2010 06:25 YellowInk wrote: BM if I find out you are town this game I'm going to ::headdesk:: To try to get town on track, is there anything we need to discuss tonight? I don't think there is unless there are still people on the roleclaim plan. Then I must dispel your notions. I kind of like the role claim plan, it seems that we are enter a do or die situation and this may be our last chance. If we don't get the GF or are very lucky with lynchs/blocks I don't see how we can fix things after tomorrow night. Of course I am a new player and may be missing something, don't you think it needs done before it is too late? | ||
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On July 07 2010 12:23 youngminii wrote: Lol okay in light of what just happened, I suggest the following strategy: We are fairly sure that I'm Detective and that citi.zen is GF. There is reasonable evidence that it is so. There is also the scumminess of BM's posts (why would he defend citi.zen after his blatant error?). He also tells DT to claim when I've already claimed. So, here's what I think. Jailer should jail me. I'll check BM. Roleblocker should block YI or some other person that people think is scum. That way, we can check BM and YI at once. I for one don't think YI is scum. I think BM might be scum. I think there's enough evidence to prove that I am really a DT and that citi.zen is a liar. I don't want to be roleblocked simply because that is wasting a DT check. I just wanted to point out I think this post lends credibility to youngminii's claim. 1. He hasn't been called on being the DT yet (except by the person he pointed out and that was obviously a false claim) The only way I see this working correctly is if he was the DT and was recruited last night since he would know it was unlikely to be a counter claim. 2. In this post he doesn't push for a double lynch. I think the mafia would need to utilize this play to force a double lynch to make it viable. Without it they are sacrificing 2 mafia for little gain. Would it make sense for us to ask if there are any other coroners, even if unlikely, that they pop tonight? | ||
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also, sorry if my previous post was confusing, I was trying to say that Young was most likely town since he didn't call for double lynch and not suggesting we should double lynch. Also for your list Chezinu, I believe zeks said Abenson was Townie so he should be green, not blue.... well unless lovers means blue in which case I should just shut up  / | ||
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sorry Zeks my apologies! You are the mason, I had you confused with Divinek the lover who claimed and said Abenson was the other part of the pair. | ||
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