TL Mafia XXII

On April 22 2010 03:43 BrownBear wrote:
Ok. Wow. Reading this was intense, and this is far far deeper and more elaborate than any Mafia game I've ever played before (although, like Korynne, I've never played on a forum before, so maybe that has something to do with it.) That said, here goes, with a little mini-analysis of what seems to be the biggest story of the last 20 pages or so: Ace vs Caller.

I find the Caller bandwagon to be slightly weird. It seems that people have jumped on the caller bandwagon largely due to this post by Ace:

+ Show Spoiler +

...although Caller really hasn't helped his cause much by being BM about it. However, the only real proof we have that Ace is his word, plus an (easily fakeable) pm from flamewheel. Of course, he still could easily be a detective, as he said, but then that begs the question: why did the Mafia not kill him on night 1, and go for Radfield instead? I have not seen any evidence that the Mafia knew somehow that Radfield was a detective - except, of course, for another post by Ace:

+ Show Spoiler +

...which doesnt exactly implicate Radfield as a detective, but... it's just very very strange to me.

It's not really enough for me to stick my neck out for Caller, as he's pretty obviously today's pincushion, and honestly, people have been lynched in Mafia games for less that this. However, it does make me suspicious, so here's my recommendation:

Lynch Caller today, and see what his role was. If he does turn out to be scum, then I hereby retract all the nasty horrible things I said about Ace in this post, with my most humble apologies. However, if he's innocent... I for one will be targeting the guy who seems most responsible for his death.

Now to prepare to have my argument cut to shreds

On April 23 2010 03:31 BrownBear wrote:



Eh, so it goes. I'm not really going to try to pretend I knew what was going on in his head.

So, having looked at the required reading, here goes in terms of analysis:

BloodyC0bbler:
Started the game offering a lot of advice to new players, and specifically telling medics NOT to protect him, Ace, or Caller. With Caller out, that leaves him and Ace that the medics are NOT supposed to protect. That, to me, is kinda suspect. If you analyze it on the surface, it's a totally selfless move that makes him look townie, but honestly, why even bother making that move? He could have just as easily said nothing about whether the medic protects him or not, and it wouldn't have been suspicious at all. Plus, now, with it having been pretty much established that Ace is DT, having medics not protect him is just silly. On the other side, to be fair, BC probaby had no clue Ace was a DT when he made that post, so it's not entirely damning evidence, it's just minorly suspect.

Gives some more early game advice, drops into some oneliners, then starts a bandwagon on RoL, then jumps off immediately once it gets rolling. What? He claims its under the pretense that he's starting wagons on inactive players. As this is my first time playing, I don't know if this is actually a legitimate strategy, but, hey, y'know, whatever. He then follows up with some decent analysis of random people's posts, which all seem to end in confirming them red. Kind of odd that he yells at meeple for doing nothing but confirming people red, while at the same time pointing the FoS at many people himself - the only difference is he mixes it up by also adding advice to newbies/random oneline comments. So... I feel something's off here.

I am pretty sure he's not Townie, based off the fact that he seems to have a clear agenda here, and he's picking people who I don't think are mafia, and accusing them to be red. But at the same time, he's also (so far) working by himself, and doesn't seem to be anti-town so much as he is anti-specific people. Thus, I'm going to call Assassin.

RebirthOfLegenD

Not nearly as active as BC, but that could mean anything, he claims he's been very busy. Most of his posts are 1-3 liners, with the exception of some longer defense posts. What I don't like is that ok, he has accused BC of mafia, but he presents NO evidence besides "rolecheck confirmed LOL". I fail to see anywhere where he claims to be a DT, or have any rolechecks whatsoever, so if someone could point me to that that would be greatly appreciated. Beyond that, he doesn't seem to be taking the game very seriously, his posts have little to no analysis, and he appears to have given up on the town. All this points to SCUM

Bill Murray

I will analyze Bill Murray in a little bit, as I have class now and there's a lot of reading to go through.

On April 25 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote:
To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping.

And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over.

Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too.

So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late.

So to begin, Bill Murray

Early on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue.

(correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis).

Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red.

calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again)

Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray.

After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there.

So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town.

On April 26 2010 14:06 BrownBear wrote:


As an addendum, I would also say that even if my analysis is false and he isn't scum, he's done nothing helpful for the town at all (not even analysis), so... the only downside is one less Townie, I suppose. And that's a worst-case scenario. I'm still sticking to my guns that he's Mafia.

And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine.

On April 26 2010 23:07 BrownBear wrote:


I would dispute that. I'm concerned about a wagon starting on me because it would be a massive waste of time, and this late in the game we cannot afford to be lynching non-mafia.

I added on what I said because I meant to say that second part before, but forgot to until later, and didn't want to edit my post.