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TL Mafia XXII - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 07:49 GMT
#1363
And by the way, it would be great to hear some thoughts from BC and RoL because neither of them have been active tonight.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 07:53 GMT
#1364
On April 23 2010 16:49 meeple wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2010 16:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan:

Vig, kill BC.
--If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso.
--If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch

Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL.


You're not worried about wasting precious medic protection on an unproven detective, who might be an assasin?


Read what I wrote more carefully. The point is, he could be a detective, and the mafia will surely try to kill him tonight if he is, and plus we can lynch him tomorrow if it turned out he was BSing on the rolecheck since BC will die tonight. There is much more reason to protect him than incognito.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 08:02 GMT
#1366
I say the medics independently protect Ace with 2/3 probability and RoL with 1/3 probability. It would be disastrous to lose Ace so he should be the focus of protection, but we also need to deter mafia from hitting RoL.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 08:19 GMT
#1368
I think those numbers are good. Mafia probably won't bother to try hitting Ace, and if they go for RoL at least they will have to waste 2KP rather than 1.

Of course, this is all on the assumption that there are exactly 3 medics left; for all we know, there could be 2 or 4 left.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 08:21 GMT
#1370
Small correction, I meant that post is on the assumption that there are 2 medics left, and there could be 1 or 3 left (4 seems unlikely)
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 12:11 GMT
#1374
I have a theory about JadeFist. Here's his only non-signup post:


Voted Caller.

Last time I played decafchicken, a long time forum veteran, was the Godfather. I feel like the choice for mafia members is not entirely random and I wouldn't be surprised if a forum "celebrity" such as Caller was mafia.


He whined that the roles are rigged by the host. This makes it look to me as if he wanted an "important" role, but got townie and is not interested in the game. He could be mafia and hoping to make us think just that, but I think for now we have bigger fish to fry.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 12:24 GMT
#1376
maybe you're right meeple. what do you think about that post, then? Do you think he was trying to be misleading?
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
May 02 2010 17:18 GMT
#1779
On May 01 2010 17:05 Incognito wrote:
Also AcrossFiveJulys, why did you decide to hit me?


You were posting a lot that important night which suggested to me that you had some kind of non vanilla townie role. So I narrowed you down to either assassin or mafia, because you were baiting me to admit I could kill or give myself away somehow, since both assassin and mafia want to track down people with killing power. You were also one of my assassin suspects because of half your posts up to that point had something to do with assassins. I decided to kill you because killing mafia at that point would be good for me (town was losing so it would prolong the game, and reduces # of people being killed) and I wasn't likely to be lynched because I made an effort to appear obvious townie.

I tried to orchestrate things so that vigilante kills would be on my assassin suspects and medic protects would be on my non-assassin suspects, but the medics sort of did w/e the hell they wanted that night and the vigilantes didnt do shit.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
May 07 2010 22:12 GMT
#1784
Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote, and knew that incognito was either red or assassin. So I don't think incognito deserves congratulations for his red play if someone as new as me could so easily filter him as non town aligned.
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