EPTMicro-MAFIA (The Second)
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
Should we do a random vote for Day 1; or is that too dangerous for a micro game like this? :/ | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On March 30 2010 11:49 flamewheel91 wrote: In most mafia games played, random votes almost never work out correctly since the odds are against you. In this case, if we voted "randomly" there'd be a straight up 2/9 chance of hitting mafia, which are unfavourable odds in my opinion. Of course, "random" fails to include mafia votes--in a game with two mafia, I'd daresay they'd loathe to vote for one another, not to mention the fact that mafia, knowing each other, can help push the "random" vote onto somebody else. All in all, what does this mean? There's a very small chance that you'd hit a mafia with a "random" lynch, so I'm more for analyzing behavioral posting. Sounds more logical; I guess we'll wait until the other players start posting. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
I think I will still wait a little bit longer and see what everyone else says until I cast my vote. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
I think it'd be best to target the person that talked the least during this first day. It's not like we can really get any clues during the first day through the posts; since there aren't that much substance to work with. And it's not really helpful to have a player that just votes without sharing some of their thoughts. So I think I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon then vote to lynch the person that talked the least (At this moment, it's looking like it will be Cynan...) | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On March 31 2010 10:34 Foolishness wrote: Ironic thing is that you yourself are not that far off from being that person. I'm hoping everyone else posts a bunch before tomorrow afternoon so you end up voting for myself. Then I can laugh. Good news is I haven't fulfilled my yearly quota of agreeing with statements made by L. C'mon people, townspeople lose from your inactivity. Well I was hoping that my post would be an incentive for people to start posting and share their ideas with the rest of the players; but it would be pretty ironic if I had to vote myself for the lynching.... | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On March 31 2010 11:58 Bill Murray wrote: ##vote kf## didn't work first time  Still voting to lynch me? May I ask why? :/ | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
By the way, your vote wasn't recognized again by the system again.. :/ So you might wanna try it a third time. XD | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On March 31 2010 13:58 flamewheel91 wrote: Any findings, CynanMachae? I believe that KF91 played in Mafia 2 (and was mafia), if my search is correct. However, he seems to be acting a bit "new" to the scene. If you don't report on this, I'll go through tomorrow and look for stuff, but as of now it's still very early on to be forming anything based off of that, especially since I've never even seen KF before this game.. I didn't really participate much during the two Mafia games that I played in before, I was too busy handling two jobs at that point. It's true that I should not have even signed up to play (When I signed up the second time, I thought "I'll try to actually participate in this round.", but no luck because of how busy I was.), but I didn't know that Mafia would be such a time-consuming game at times. So pretty much, you can consider me a "new" player. Plus I only have one job now, so you can expect more posts from me in this game. i don't have enough of a basis to vote for flamewheel, esp. since IF he is town, the effort he puts into his posts indicate that he will strive to participate and contribute as the game goes on. on the other hand kf has shown no sign of participating and aiding the town other than "i'll wait for ppl to post first"... In such an early stage of the game, i think kf's blatant lack of effort or quality posting is indicative of mafia trying to hide--or otherwise a townie with sheer disregard. sigh, i guess with these time constraints, it's enough of a basis for me to vote for him. It's not that I'm not trying to put any effort into my posts; it's just that the town is pretty much facing a lose-lose situation at the start of the game, because we will probably choose to lynch someone on the basis of something really small (because we don't have enough information to work with) and the chances of the town killing a townie is really high. That's why I don't have any more proposals then waiting for people to post, so that we can actually get some information to work with. And to people who say we do have enough substance to work with, I think you guys could be over-analyzing the posts; but that's not for me to say, because most of you guys are Mafia veterans. I'll be back in the afternoon to cast my vote. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
##Vote flamewheel91## I made the decision to vote flamewheel, mostly because I think his posts are way too wordy. Maybe I'm not searching well enough, but from some of his posts that I have seen in previous games; he has not posted stuff to the extent that he has in this thread. Nonetheless, I don't think he needs to drag on with what he wants to say; if it can be said in 3-4 sentences, that's how it should be done. It may be that he is trying to cover the fact that he is mafia by whipping out as many sentences as he can to look beneficial to the town, or he actually might be just a townie who is trying his best to help the town out. But in my opinion, I think that the former fits better in this situation. I will probably be back an hour before Day 1 wraps up just in case I want to change my vote. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On April 01 2010 06:54 flamewheel91 wrote: tl;dr version: This is my second game playing. I changed my play style after observing games. You did the same (changed your style from posting nothing to posting a bit, that is). Accusation faulty based on double standards. Honestly, I have no problem reading your long posts or long posts in general. And the cross-examination with your previous games had very little influence, or even no influence at all when I made my voting decision. All that I stated was that your posts were needlessly long. The paragraphs could have been summed up in a couple of sentences (Except the recent ones you have posted with all your analysis; those provided some good information, I'm not going to lie.) Anyways, onto what has been happening and my thoughts... Where did L get this "string" theory? And like Cynan has stated, why does it only have to be 2 rungs apart? They could be 3 or 4 apart, or maybe one of the Mafia could be voting for their partner (Although that would put them in a VERY dangerous situation). And if L votes for madnessman, wouldn't that give us almost any combination of pairs that are participating in this match? This "string" theory could have been just made up to give an excuse to vote for flamewheel, which I think is highly probable by the observation of his posting style. I would be changing my vote right now to lynch L, but I think what BM said is true: On April 01 2010 09:54 Bill Murray wrote: I am also not randomly switching votes around. I really believe you might be red. You ask for justification, and i'll give it to you. Of all the people I have put FoS on (nearly everyone), you have squirmed the most. Bravo, considering madnessman was pretty squirmy himself. This along with what Foolishness wrote in response to my vote towards you: On April 01 2010 04:19 Foolishness wrote: L didn't want to make an accusation so as to avoid a bandwagon (acceptable reason I guess). So he let other people talk and do the accusing for him. Yet no bandwagon's have happened really, and there's hardly been any defense of votes. Almost like nobody is taking their votes against them seriously, like, "lol BM voted for me? haha what a joke...". I think you are being way too reactive of L's vote towards you, along with how you react towards BM. I don't know if you and BM had some clashes in past mafia games, but I don't think that matters at this point. I will not be changing my vote. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On April 01 2010 10:21 flamewheel91 wrote: Once again, so glad you give your justification more than an hour late. If/when I die and flip green, expect to get some shit for it. Who will we getting shit from? The rest of the town? And how about L? He casted a vote for you as well. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On April 01 2010 11:02 Bill Murray wrote: im not trying to stay away from his bad side, i am respectful of how many mafia he nabbed in mafia XX when he picked up on their voting of abenson. it was a really good job by him, and i believe that he is usually right on the money with his accusations whether or not he goes through with them is based on how the people react. you want me to take my vote off you? explain why I should vote for RoL and i'll consider it. When's the deadline? 4 minutes ago. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
The town is in a really bad situation now; losing a townie (I guess some of that blame could be put on me) and then losing a detective during the night. The town now has two days left minimum to kill off all the mafia, unless we screw up again today and kill another townie. So I've read through all the posts to check out the behaviors that people are exhibiting. (This post is quite long, so please, don't get mad! :D) And Flamewheel, if I made this post during Day 1, I wouldn't even have been able to vote you, considering how fucking long this post is. So, sorry about voting you because of your wordiness, hopefully we don't have any hard feeling against each other XD Vivi57 + Show Spoiler + At this moment, my biggest suspicion is on Vivi. He really hasn't said much during this game, and most of his suspicions are based off of past games or not being active in the thread; something that he is practicing as well: On March 31 2010 04:07 Vivi57 wrote: ##vote bm## in the last game where he was town, he posted a bunch. This game he hasn't posted at all. His first real post in the game. Bases suspicion off of his posting style. Maybe he BM could have been too busy to post when the game started? But in that case, Vivi himself could be too busy to post in the thread as well. I'll let this one slide. On March 31 2010 13:22 Vivi57 wrote: Right now, I'm seeing cynan as our best target. He basically says the day1 lynch will suck because of lack of information. Perfect way for scum to hide and makes a good excuse for not contributing. Then he says the rol drawing attention is the thing that he noticed most. Odd that trying to create discussion and drawing attention to himself, both very pro town reads, is the thing he noticed most. The states a very obvious fact that we should compare behavior to previous games. This looks super characteristic of the "I'm mafia pretending to contribute" gameplan. ##vote CynanMachae## The thing is, I've been preaching the "lack of information" idea throughout Day 1 as well, but he doesn't point me out at all. And at least Cynan was brave enough to voice his opinion about what will happen in Day 1. Vivi himself is the person that fits into the characteristics of "I'm mafia pretending to contribute." On April 01 2010 09:18 Vivi57 wrote: you know, I was considering putting my vote on flamewheel, but then I looked more closely between him and L. L really hasn't done much of anything this game and explicitly said he was sitting back and waiting. Then instead of trying to do much behavioral analysis, he just shows up and does some crap with votelists and magical theories then votes flamewheel. I'm still not happy with flamewheel's vote on rol because I really do think he's town, but at this point, I think its really likely that flamewheel or L is mafia. At this point, because of his relative inactivity and lack of useful posts, I'm going to go for L. ##Vote L## His second time changing his vote; not that I have anything against people changing votes, but just pointing that out. In this post (Which was made after L's 2 rung apart "string theory"), Vivi talks about how L made up some random votelist crap (Which at first, I agreed with as well), and his vote on flamewheel. From what I see, L was voting flamewheel maybe because of his wordiness(?) (He wasn't really explicit about his reasons, or maybe it was because he wanted to see if his theory was indeed right) Vivi could have also voted for L in reaction of maybe he was able to figure out the mafia pairs. If you look at who L predicted the pairs would be, he said it could be RoL and Vivi, the only two people who ended up voting for L in the end. Although RoL did vote before the whole string theory came out, it's just interesting to see how things worked out. Right after the Day 1 post, Vivi's aggression towards L continues: On April 01 2010 11:26 Vivi57 wrote: can we please lynch L now? Let's not let him pull an ace and live for another day. It's funny, because this was followed up with the mafia killing L. Right after the Night 1 post: On April 02 2010 12:13 Vivi57 wrote: lets lynch L just to be sure he's not zombie mafia now He continues to talk about L. Now maybe I'm not aware of some previous incident that happened in a previous game with L and Vivi, but even if there was, this seems very suspicious to me. Vivi does some random votes, then as soon as L posts his "string theory", attacks him even after he is dead. This behavioral change puts Vivi up pretty high on my suspicion list and I will probably vote for him when I cast my vote near the end of Day 2. RebirthOfLeGenD + Show Spoiler + At the beginning of the game, he posts a couple of short replies, not really containing any content or deep thought. Then he votes L because his posts are "a pain in the ass to read". On March 31 2010 11:36 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I NEED INFORMATION TO WORK WITH, ITS WHY I POST. At this point I have nothing to say. There is no plan to establish, everything obvious has been said. No lynch is a dumbfuck move. Don't lynch RC blues because they aren't mafia. If someone RC blue and you are that role. Counterclaim immediately. Trading blue for red is beneficial to the town. ALRIGHT? He then complains that there is not enough information to work with at that time and that he can't say anything (At this time we were just talking about inactive people and my previous mafia games experience) This post was made 2 hours before Vivi's post about Cynan. And yet, Vivi does not mention RoL at all in his post. Come to look at it, Vivi's only mention of RoL was: - Saying that RoL gets angry and reminds him of Ace and, - RoL seems like a townie to him There is no other mention of RoL in any of his posts other than that. Back to talking about RoL. After the quoted post above, RoL makes no posts until Day 1 is over, claiming that "there was nothing to talk about", although L's "string theory" was still floating around. He then gets really anxious see the Night 1 post, but I don't think there should be any suspicion rooted in that. And finally today, he argues with Foolishness, because Foolishness accuses him of inactivity. In summary, my suspicion of RoL being is pretty high as well. Not as much a]s Vivi (I guess not enough evidence yet), but we should keep an eye on his as well. Bill Murray + Show Spoiler + My God, he's such a hard person to analyze. His post are so erratic and he rarely gives much info on why he decided to vote someone (He switched vote 4 times in Day 1) He constantly changed his vote around in Day 1, but then stays with Flamewheel because of his "squirminess" (Which I agreed to, and later based my vote on), but that's all I have. I am trying my hardest to try to make out his behaviors throughout this game, but I don't think I can with his type of posting style. If anyone would like to try and shed some light on him (I haven't played with him before, as with anyone else in this game right now..), please do and I would love to read an analysis of him. So my suspicion of him being mafia is moderate, but things will change once someone could inform me of him XD CynanMachae + Show Spoiler + He starts off in this game with not really posting much and but mostly trying to figure out my background history in TL Mafia. He does vote RoL because of his spam and trying to "start up drama", but trying to see reactions toward votes does seem like a useful strategy, as demonstrated by BM (But that ended up back firing as Flamewheel was indeed green). He then doesn't really talk at all, except I believe for two posts where he defends himself, but other than that, he hasn't said anything with substance. I can't really put any type of suspicion on him, mostly because he hasn't said much at all. Foolishness + Show Spoiler + The man I refer to as my opposite. He has been against most of the posts I have made during this game: - Random lynching - Town inactivity (Saying that I'm pretty inactive as well) - Voting for Flamewheel because of his long posts I'm not trying to sound accusatory when saying that he's against what I say, I'm just stating facts here. He then goes on to vote for RoL, saying that it's opposite of his previous playing styles. He later posts about how we should concentrate our suspicions on specific people in Day 2. On April 02 2010 04:51 Foolishness wrote: As L said, post more people. This is what he ends with. Although he himself has not put many posts into this thread. But as I can see, he is starting to pick up in the amount of posts during Day 2, so we'll see what will happen. madnessman + Show Spoiler + Our first post analyzer. Great post analyzing from around only 30-35 posts into the game, most of which weren't really helpful at all. On March 31 2010 15:35 madnessman wrote: on the other hand kf has shown no sign of participating and aiding the town other than "i'll wait for ppl to post first"... In such an early stage of the game, i think kf's blatant lack of effort or quality posting is indicative of mafia trying to hide--or otherwise a townie with sheer disregard. sigh, i guess with these time constraints, it's enough of a basis for me to vote for him. ##vote KF91## I'm sorry I couldn't write up and analysis with only 35 posts before me. XD Just pulling your leg XD Anyways, argues with BM about inactivity, although he himself hasn't posts much during Day 1. He ends off with a great analysis of BM matched up with Katy Perry's "Hot n' Cold". From what I can see, I think think madnessman really likes me. He continues to put suspicion me, mostly because I didn't lay any suspicions yet and because I have a "lack of effort". But no hard feelings from me, I have little to no suspicion on madnessman at this moment. Final Thoughts + Show Spoiler + I really believe that Vivi57 and RebirthOfLeGenD are mafia, but of course things can change. I will read up on everything that happens until tomorrow evening and make my vote at that time. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On March 31 2010 17:38 Bill Murray wrote: madnessman with excuse for not being here@scummy behavior.org trying to blend in on obvious town... I was just waiting for someone to try to jump onto that guy after me, but I didn't expect it to be you, madnessman. shame on you for falling into my trap . unvote; ##vote madnessman## Alright BM, first I'm on obvious town to you, and then all of sudden I turn into an obvious mafia after my post... I really don't understand your thinking style -.- On April 03 2010 18:06 Bill Murray wrote: You all might say "that's rubbish, he just posted suspicions" but I feel as if they are forced and the usefulness of them is only to put his name in a good light. He is faking it, and I have had the gut feeling to go after him all game, so lets see if I'm right on this one, guys. You all can say "you've been wrong", but I really haven't. Before flamewheel died, I realized he was green, and asked him how long that we had to change our votes. When I went to change my vote, the post was already overdue. Trust me until I'm wrong please. LETS LYNCH KF91 For all we know, you could have known when the votes ended; and just pretended to try to change your vote. And what's forced? My suspicion of Vivi and RoL? I just tried to analyze what they have been saying. I guess for the other players I wasn't able to put as much effort, because I had very little suspicion on them. People wanted to know what I was thinking, and I gave that to them. Can you please explain what is wrong with my analysis. On April 03 2010 21:29 Vivi57 wrote: ok, I reread foolishness and at first, I looked at the end and tried to find a connection between kf91 and him, but as I looked through the earlier parts, I saw that foolishness spread all his discussion evenly and put a ton of work into promoting discussion. I am going to make a proposition: let's assume foolishness is town. If he's mafia, we should just gg now because he's going to lead us in circles and the rest of us are too lazy to do anything about it so we'd be screwed anyway. If he's town and we lynch him, we lose anyway, so I say we leave him alone for now. going to put a vote on kf91 for now just so I don't get modkilled. ##vote kf91 I'll go reread more people tomorrow and hopefully post something good. Can you please explain as to why you're voting me? You are providing no explanation, except not to get modkilled. That doesn't seen a good enough reason to me. I see this as a reaction to what I posted yesterday, so let's just get this over with: ##Vote Vivi57## On April 04 2010 01:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I think we are going the right way here, KF is using backwards logic when he voted for FlameWheel. He basically voted flamewheel because flamewheel would be the biggest threat later on, he was talking and contributing a lot and activity HURTS the mafia. Yes, Flamewheel was being exceptionally wordy, but that is good. It gives us the town more to work with and the ability to read whats shit when its there. Any fool can see how flamewheel's posts were beneficial to the town. After that KF continues to not really say anything of substance and just goes with it. Look at his suspect list. It lists me and Vivi as the prime two suspects and gives NO COMMENT on foolishness. Who is obviously my strongest candidate. Posting a lot and contributing could also be seen as a mafia trying to blend themselves into the town. Let's say Flame was mafia and we didn't lynch him. I think that as the days went on, we would start trusting what he was saying and basing our lynch votes depending on what he says. I think that is much more dangerous than a quiet mafia who does not contribute, just because they don't have the power to manipulate the other townies. And why should I give comments on foolishness if he's your strongest candidate? The post I made was to inform the town of my suspicions. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
Good job to the mafia XD | ||
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