World at War Mafia

OpZ, you're a total idiot, I had plenty of time to answer their questions, were you just trying to be annoying? Anyway, I've gotta go to class right now, and I'm due to die within the hour, so this is what I've got. Something's probably right, but it's probably mostly wrong. Enjoy.

Also, Ace when I die, I'd love to know the role-list. Thanks.
***

Alright, since ~OpZ~ the All-Knowing decided to join the idiot brigade, I’ve prepared this little statement, which should gain considerable weight when I flip green, and ~OpZ~ bangs his tiny head against the keyboard.

BRIEF HISTORICAL INTERLUDE: I think this is a little how Robespierre felt when he was being led to the guillotine; devoured by the monster he helped create.

***

Let’s go to the beginning.

I’m Germany, town aligned, and began the game with three nukes. This is actually easily verifiable, in my first post, I dropped a few clues as to my nationality. See if you can find them!

On March 23 2010 13:35 tree.hugger wrote:
Yes, those are all good ideas. We must do our best to be efficient with our nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, we need everyone to post a great deal in this thread, because, similarly to Mafia XX, behavioral analysis will be paramount. We need people to be able to read the zeitgeist of the thread, so to speak. Analysis should be posted in bulk quantities, we must be unified in our front against the conspiracy.

Players with special roles should use them early and often. The French must cook, and should otherwise stay out of the discussion.

I voted for L at the beginning of the game because I rate L’s deductive skills fairly poorly, and his constant ‘I’ll vote for myself if Player X isn’t mafia’ ploys struck me as unsporting and frustrating, especially because they were often wrong. I think L’s style of play is on the whole an unproductive one, he takes his analysis as gospel, and does not tolerate dissent in a way that is unhealthy for the town. When people began to take votes away from L, I was busy with a class, and not fully apprised of events in the thread, and so I briefly posted to reaffirm my support for L being unhelpful, and left it at that. I also obviously did not anticipate the day lasting forever.

When I finally got back in touch with the thread, there was no point in changing my vote, RoL was going to die, and so I didn’t really bother with that, I let my L vote sit because it didn’t matter.

Then came the intervention of the Japanese anti-nuke, and one post leapt out at me:

On March 26 2010 09:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Who anti-nuked for Caller? That person should step forward, and RoL should definitely eat Caller's brains....Mafia saving caller? Not in my mafia world?!?!

To which I thought:

On March 26 2010 09:43 tree.hugger wrote:
And immediately get killed by the mafia? Yeah right.

Japan is a country that should certainly have more tricks up their sleeve, having this person out themselves will not happen if they're mafia, and should not happen if they're town aligned and want to stay living.

Then of course, L, knowing that he was a medic, attempted to establish a reason for Japan revealing himself. I don’t need to rehash all of this argument (check the attached archives), it should be pretty clear that L was right knowing what he knew, but knowing what I knew, I was also correct to a degree.

That said, from my point of view, L looked very suspicious to me. Here was someone doggedly pursuing an anti-town position, and attempting to bully the town into accepting it. Despite what L and others have alleged, I actually spent a decent amount of time debating whether or not I should launch a nuke at L. I ran through several possibilities in my head, and concluded that the payoff was too great to pass up, compared with the cost.

As I mapped out earlier, I was certain that, should L be mafia, he would be saved, thereby wasting an anti-nuke, and attaching the FoS firmly on L. If L were town aligned, I figured that if he died, there’d be a plethora of reactions from people to analyze, and I’d also have eliminated someone who (I’ve never denied) was annoying the hell out of me. If L was saved by a townie, I argued strenuously that the townie should NOT announce their intentions, and do so at the last minute, only afterwards claiming responsibility. My idea with this was to guard against the possibility of L being mafia and saved by a townie, while allowing for the save to occur if L was actually town-aligned.

Of course, this entire plan went to pieces when BM role-claimed anti-nukes after which there really wasn’t any choice for him except to save L outright.

On March 27 2010 05:35 tree.hugger wrote:
But even more so, Bill, what the hell were you thinking with that?

You've made a huge mistake to claim your possession of anti-nukes, BM. There was nothing suggesting you would be killed in the night, until now. Which means that if you aren't killed tonight, I'll be damn suspicious of you. And at that, to be honest, I really don't see an out for you. You've essentially requested to be killed in the night, and the choice is whether or not you feel like using your powers. I believe that we let the nuke fall on L, and see what color he is, and whether or not anyone stages an intervention on his behalf.

But in claiming to posses anti-nukes, you've essentially destroyed the possibility of the town using them later in the game for our own benefits. That's like roleclaiming to be the last medic in the game.

That's the most unproductive thing ANYONE has done this game. Goddammit.

After that, I was frustrated with how things had ended up, although I understood that people couldn’t be expected to be on my same wavelength, and in fact, it was probably beneficial to have some people defending ordinary townies from nukes. Also, the question of L’s allegiance had been answered for me, I had come to the conclusion that he was NOT mafia-aligned, which is why I insisted that I would not nuke him, or anyone else again.

On March 27 2010 12:17 tree.hugger wrote:
Also to address L's point, I'd don't see myself nuking anyone else in the near future.

From the moment I decided to launch my nuke, I was also comfortable with the knowledge that I’d have to defend myself from a lynch the next day. Even as the nuke was coming down on L, I was decently confident that I would be able to avoid being lynched on Day 2. Even townies need PR campaigns, and after nuking L I had made every effort to not give ground, while actively contributing to the town, and being as fair as I could in my analysis. My bet was that after the night kill, and the reminder that the mafia is the true target, the appetite for enforcing town rules would evaporate. One of the reasons I argued with L so persistently about not doling out town-justice was because I never really gave it much stock in the first place, enforcing the law is one thing, but when you’re fighting a war, it takes a backseat. To strengthen my hand and one-up L, I pledged to vote for myself if there was the will to lynch me. I had every intention of following through with this, should that actually occur, but at the same time I was also betting I could avoid the noose.

Then, of course, shit hit the fan, and things got ugly between L, Versatile and BM. I was convinced that L was innocent, and I never really entertained the idea that BM would be mafia either.

I’ve actually been pretty removed from the whole process since then, despite my participation in the thread, I really played no part in the action until ~OpZ~ discovered that his penis was larger than his brain, and fired the nuke at me.

I really have nothing much to say about that. When I listed ~OpZ~, Abenson, and Versatile as mafia, I wasn’t entirely serious, just aiming to get a reaction out of them. I was not expecting a nuke fired at me, with significantly less provocation than anyone else except, perhaps XeliN’s nuke of LMNOP.

I don’t think ~OpZ~ is particularly suspicious looking just based on recent activity, his nuke seems more like a rather routine schoolboy desire to be included than the calculated work of the mafia. I doubt I’m a high priority for a mafia kill, unless I’ve been inadvertently getting everything right so far, which is highly unlikely. I don’t think XeliN, Versatile or ~OpZ~ deserve to be lynched based on their nuking behavior. The better question is whether or not they’re mafia.

In conclusion:
+ Show Spoiler +

This is amazing.

***
So who are the mafia?

Things I learned from being mafia last game:
- Mafia are rarely as coordinated as the town might think.
- The inactive people are more likely mafia than the active ones.

From page #19, I think this is probably the most instructive voting list in the game. This was right before anything really happened, from masons to nukes, and is probably a pretty fair distribution of voting. I’m not unique in thinking this, enough people have pulled out the ‘L list’ as evidence for someone or another.
+ Show Spoiler +

On March 25 2010 03:36 Ace wrote:
With 22 alive, it is 12 to lynch.

L(7)
tree.hugger
Versatile
Abenson
Fishball
RebirthofLegend
~Opz~
d3_crescentia

~Opz~(4)
Xelin
Nikon
Elemenope
iNfuNdiBuLuM

Abenson(7)
Iaaan
Zona
haster27
johnnyspazz
JeeJee
meeple
Amber[LighT]

Bill Murray(2)
Caller
NemY

Non Voting
L
Bill Murray

Day ends at 12 AM ET at the current time

That said, I think the L-list is only one part of this voting spread. There are probably mafia voting for each candidate. I assume there’s 4-5 mafia in this game.

Here’s the list again, with people’s roles filled in:
+ Show Spoiler +

On March 25 2010 03:36 Ace wrote:
[i]With 22 alive, it is 12 to lynch.

L(7)
~~tree.hugger~~ - Germany, Town
Versatile
Abenson
Fishball
~~RebirthofLegend~~ - Mexico, Town
~Opz~
d3_crescentia

~Opz~(4)
Xelin
Nikon
Elemenope
iNfuNdiBuLuM

Abenson(7)
Iaaan
Zona
haster27
~~johnnyspazz~~ - USA, Town
JeeJee
meeple
Amber[LighT]

Bill Murray(2)
Caller
NemY

Non Voting
L - Egypt, Town
~~Bill Murray~~ - India, Town

Fill in yourself if you’re town aligned. If you’re mafia aligned, you really don’t need to be reading this.

Now let’s take a look at the smallest list; Bill Murray.

On March 24 2010 21:06 Caller wrote:
I change my ##vote to Bill Murray because I don't trust him with a nuclear arsenal

On March 25 2010 02:46 nemY wrote:
I vote ##Vote Bill Murray for the same reason Caller does :/

Awful reasons for voting for a lynch. No thought behind it, which suggests that neither player is particularly interested in the fate of the town. While Caller’s vote seems to be an attempt to make a joke, coming just a few posts after BM’s introduction to the game, nemY’s vote makes absolutely no sense, and seems much more like a vote to start a bandwagon.

Caller never removes his vote from BM due to inactivity, while nemY does… dead last.

On March 26 2010 05:35 nemY wrote:
In light of certain circumstances I'm changing my vote to ##RebirthOfLegend

Regardless of whether he's town or not we set about some ground rules and he openly breaks them. I don't really think we should analyze and discuss this on a case-by-case basis because he FUCKED UP and needs to pay for it. I do get it... really I do, he's likely to be a townie, but nonetheless there needs to be consequences for people who play gung-ho or else this game's gonna go downhill fast.

Which I would think is a pretty generic useless post, although there’s nothing in there that really screams mafia or not. NemY’s been playing that way throughout, posting just enough to be counted active, without really contributing or drawing attention.

Let’s look at the other really interesting list in the bunch: L’s. This has been mentioned a ton of times, but my death should clear more things up. First of all, I don’t believe that early game the mafia would be coordinated enough to campaign against one person or another, and as I’ve said, L can be a mixed blessing for the town. Everyone’s said that there are probably mafia on the L list, but then again, I think there are probably mafia on every list, so that’s no big news.

L(7)
~~tree.hugger~~ - Germany, Town
Versatile
Abenson
Fishball
~~RebirthofLegend~~ - Mexico, Town
~Opz~
d3_crescentia

RoL flipped green, and I soon to do the same. That leaves five people remaining. We can divide these into two groups: the Masons, and the Non-Masons. Here’s one:

Masons:
~OpZ~
Abenson

Now the important question is; do we believe in the ~OpZ~ and Abenson’s story? Here’s the post in question:

On March 25 2010 06:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
## I Change my vote to JohnnySpazz

Abenson should be confirmed soon enough. I'll RC, or he will in a minute. I figured I would die earlier, so I simple breadcrumbed his name into a post for him to reveal on my death.

I will not vote for a confirmed townie over someone unconfirmed. Consider I'll likely be another lynch candidate tomorrow, I might as well save you all some trouble. The post his name is in is on page sixteen.

Show nested quote +

Whether you all want to take this as confirming him, whatever. I gave him strict instructions to only post this on my death to save himself from a town lynch. He seems to be afk a lot, and I will not support his lynch.

On March 25 2010 12:00 Abenson wrote:
I'm sorry, I have had quite a busy week...
First of all, I would like to thank ~OpZ~ for saving me back there, when I was on the chopping block. I really appreciate it but I was unable to give my thanks to you right away. I also apologize in advance of my complete uselessness in terms of aiding the town. Here is my attempt at redemption:

Note: I hereby confirm that I am indeed in a mason with ~OpZ~

I would like to point out johnnyspazz
He's been active in terms of defending L early on in the game, when we were bickering whether or not to kill him day 1

Show nested quote +

Also, he seems to be quite intent on pushing for a lynch of random people, jumping from one person to the next

Show nested quote +

This is after ~OpZ~ saved my ass and managed to convince many that I am town.

Show nested quote +

It should also be noted that he voted for me, L, RoL, nemy off the top of my head.

JSpazz's post count has been near the middle. He may be active, but he hasn't posted anything that I would count as extremely helpful. The only thing he has posted is his opinion on the matter and nothing analytic.

Conclusion: Like ~OpZ~, I am hereby suggesting JSpazz as a lynch victim.

P.S. I know that many of you don't have a good impression of me, but I believe that by now, thanks to ~OpZ~, you believe I am at least pro-town. Therefore I would like to request that you do not waste lynches on me and I will attempt to improve as a mafia player on overall.

It’s neat stuff, and unlikely to have been dreamed up on the spot. Coupled with ~OpZ~’s rather punch drunk posting since he nuked me, I’m decently convinced that ~OpZ~, and by extension Abenson are town-aligned. And if they aren’t, then they probably deserve to win for that ballsy play alone. I’m slightly suspicious of two things, the fact that ~OpZ~ was the first to suggest Japan revealing themselves, and the curious way in which ~OpZ` claimed to be masons, he kind of did it subtly, not exactly a ’stop the presses’ role claim for something so urgent. Does it mean anything? Probably not.

So let’s look at the second sub-list:

Non-masons:
Versatile
Fishball
d3_crescentia

This seems to me like more fertile ground. I’d expect to find at least one mafia among these two, but possibly two. Versatile was the first vote for L, followed by Fishball, and then d3

On March 25 2010 01:06 d3_crescentia wrote:
Lunchtiem. Don't really feel too strongly for anyone right now, though I'd rather vote L than Abenson, because L could dick over the town way harder. Abenson, well, doesn't really *do* anything so we can lynch him anytime.

##vote L

This really doesn’t make sense, it doesn’t argue to strenuously in any particular direction. D3 has been another poster who has seemingly done little to contribute, and has avoided the limelight substantially. I have my suspicions here.

I don’t think Versatile’s mafia either, although I’m not entirely sure about this. As we all know, Versatile kind of jumped off the deep end to get L out of the game, yet has always remained consistent in disagreeing with L, and took a hugely dangerous move in launching the nuke. Also, her list is similar to mine.

On March 24 2010 05:28 Versatile wrote:
and if L is banned anyway, why not kill him? i don't think we have any better targets as it is day 1 and it's hard to determine who is an illogical idiot vs. who's mafia parading around as an idiot.

further, i bet if anyone else was in L's position, he'd probably be advocating for their death. it's a course of action that makes sense.

##i vote L unless another someone else does something incredibly stupid.

Fishball has hardly ever contributed either, and I really can’t flag any single post of his one way or another.

Finally, the two other columns merit some scrutiny.
~Opz~(4)
Xelin
Nikon
Elemenope
iNfuNdiBuLuM

Abenson(7)
Iaaan
Zona
haster27
~~johnnyspazz~~ - USA, Town
JeeJee
meeple
Amber[LighT]

I think we can draw two, possibly three mafia out of these two columns. My favorite candidates among them are meeple and Nikon, because both have a habit of checking in occasionally and making extraordinarily useless posts. Consider:

On March 28 2010 00:27 meeple wrote:
Jesus on the crapper... So didn't johnnyspazz claim to have anti-nuke power, and yet he didn't save himself or anyone else? Am I missing something here?

Nuking each other to bits isn't getting us anywhere and in fact,its totally ripping apart the town.

Show nested quote +

Amber and d3 catch my attention only in that they're kinda staying out of the fray of this whole mess...

Saving L all depends on how many anti-nukes we have. I'm certain that there are way more anti-nukes than nukes in this game so its critical we save a couple. This is only the first day. If you have a good stockpile, then go ahead... well actually I'll probably support it in any case but it might just hinder us a bit later on.

A post which makes a lot of sense if meeple is mafia. I think d3 is suspicious as well, meeple addresses ~OpZ~’s claim, and dilutes it by adding another name, and then spending only one sentence on it. Followed by this:

On March 28 2010 01:53 meeple wrote:
Was tree.hugger really high on the lynch list? I know he nuked without town consensus but technically the nuke got shot down.

As for lynching Versatile... well it's pretty obvious she's being fairly anti-town and just doing whatever the hell she wants to do... so I'd agree with lynching but I still have the same twinges of regret since we're not really any closer to bagging us some mafia.

Which also doesn’t help, and has some token words about catching mafia thrown in.

Meeple’s been good about staying out of the picture and swooping in to defend when necessary.

On March 29 2010 20:23 Nikon wrote:
Wow, the day might end soon! Translation: Finally I get to kill someone!

Just so we're clear: First I get this:

Show nested quote +

And then there's

Show nested quote +

You're directly disagreeing with yourself. Based on this and how you've omitted various pieces of information in your nice big posts, I'd say that you're red.

The question is... what should I do with you. Translation: Night kill? Hmmm….

So this also makes no sense, comes at a terrible time and throws out a random accusation that Nikon clearly does not expect to be taken seriously. I’m suspicious.

***

So in conclusion, here’s a list of people who look suspicious, simply based on their day 1 activity and their initial lynch votes. ~OpZ~, when you say this isn’t a typical Day 1 situation, you’re right, and you’re wrong. Obviously we’ve gotten a ton of posts in ‘one day’ but we’ve also only had one town vote, and town votes are very important to try and see which patterns keep cropping up.

I’ve taken the first town vote, and tried to apply it to normal mafia behavior. I suspect that at least one of the more active posters on the thread is also mafia, although I have less theories as to who that might be. LMNOP strikes me as being the perfect combination of activity, while not having an alibi (~OpZ~) and not quite being as helpful as Zona. But LMNOP has been very pro-town.

One point that I can’t remember atm; did Sweden ever come forward and take responsibility for shooting down LMNOP’s nuke?

***

Here’s what I think should be done: Lynch Nikon. He’s on quite a few lists, and was an early voter for ~OpZ~. If Nikon flips mafia, we can assume with a higher degree of certainty that ~OpZ~ is just stupid, and not mafia. Abenson is also shown to be town-aligned by this.

If Nikon flips green, it doesn’t mean that I’m totally wrong, but it also might mean that I’m totally wrong. Take everything I’ve written here with a grain of salt, I’m not often right.

Good luck town.

My list:
NemY
D3
Meeple
Nikon

And a few others for good measure:
LMNOP
Amber
INfuNdiBuLuM

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