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Incognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 12

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 25 2010 04:12 GMT
#1248
On January 25 2010 13:11 flamewheel91 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2010 12:58 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On January 25 2010 12:56 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
I abstained because I had not made up my mind on the clues quite yet, and then got too caught up in the Saints game to change my vote before the deadline


What a game huh?

Watched it at the local sports bar. Unbelievable.


What was the final score? I heard it was close.

+ Show Spoiler +
Saints 31-28 Vikings. Saints won it with a FG in overtime.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 25 2010 04:14 GMT
#1249
On January 25 2010 13:11 flamewheel91 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2010 12:54 789 wrote:
On January 25 2010 12:51 JohannesH wrote:
On January 25 2010 12:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On January 25 2010 11:43 Zona wrote:
Man, one thing I really want is for all voters to post why they voted the way they did. If we're going to focus away from clue-based mafia hunting (since it hasn't done us much good so far), this kind of reasoning is the minimum required.

Town members, even those with blue powers, need to post more (and never lie, although it's fine to deny knowledge and post suspicions even when you're not sure), so that mafia can't get by without posting. Then mafia who do post might eventually slip up by posting contradictions or lies that they had to make to keep their identity secret.


Since I've asked for people to explain their votes, I might as well start.

I came to the thread pretty close to the deadline as I was working all afternoon on other things so it was too late to really be influencing outcomes. But since this is something that's a good ploy for mafia members to use, I'll do my best to get in early in the next discussion. I ended up stacking an unnecessary extra vote on kane just to see if the olympic clue really was that straightforward, but it wasn't. I do think we should focus away from clue-based mafia hunting for now.


Why I voted the way I did:

I voted for kane]deth[ initially because of the evidence meeple posted. However, keits clues from Day 1 and his finger pointing behavior/inactivity convinced me he is more likely mafia than kane.

Aggressive finger pointing isnt something a mafia would do too much I think.


It could be a useful tactic for the mafia to send one to do that. If the mafia can cause chaos amongst the townies it makes it much harder for them to work together and take out the mafia.


I think it's still hard to say exactly what the mafia is doing, considering the options available to them while they are still under the cover of anonymity. However, it is very viable that those pointing fingers could be mafia agents, especially since:

1) Mafia at this point aren't as afraid of losing members, since their KP remains at 3 until they drop to 4 members

and,

2) More town suspicion means less actual fire focused at them.


That's true.

I find it highly unlikely, though, that a mafia will actually vote for another mafia. Reading through other games and through some articles on the mafiascum wikipedia page, mafia often accuse eachother but very rarely will vote or start a vote bandwagon.

I think that's pretty important to keep in mind. Anyone who starts pointing fingers without following through could be up for suspicion.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 25 2010 04:57 GMT
#1264
On January 25 2010 13:47 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2010 12:58 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On January 25 2010 12:56 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
I abstained because I had not made up my mind on the clues quite yet, and then got too caught up in the Saints game to change my vote before the deadline


What a game huh?

Watched it at the local sports bar. Unbelievable.


Half of my family is from New Orleans, they say Bourbon street is going completely batshit insane


I'm happy since Brees is a former Charger.

It lifted my spirits a bit after the abomination that was Jets/Chargers.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 25 2010 05:32 GMT
#1267
Yeah, there is no need to be so aggressive.

Remember what happened to t_co? It only makes you look suspicious. Let's all calm down and be objective as possible here.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 01:58 GMT
#1323
Next day coming soon. Let's hope the medics were up to the job tonight.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 02:09 GMT
#1327
Wow. Losing two active townies is really going to hurt. Thank goodness no blues were hit though.

From glancing over the clues, the only thing I'm sure of now is that keit is mafia. Not only do the day 1 clues reference him, but the barbaric nature of the third attack as well as the attacker searching for food in the corpses pockets is a clear reference to the cookie monster.

His behavior has been somewhat suspicious as well.

The first attacker seems stealthy, quick, and vicious. Perhaps like a tiger? Every day, there is something putting at least a little bit of suspicion on Hobbes.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 02:22 GMT
#1332
god another bodyguard :<
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 02:23 GMT
#1333
oh wow it was the last one too
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 02:32 GMT
#1338
So there are a lot of things to consider now.

1. The new clues. I feel based on this that keit is the best choice for a town lynch.

2. The death of both bodyguards. Both myself and meeple are now able to be hit during the night. I would ask medics to cover either one of us. I can also use my incarceration power to protect meeple and a medic can cover me. This way, both of us are guaranteed to be covered tonight and the medics can't make the mistake of both protecting one of us.

I'd like it if everyone posted their plan of action, rather then getting right to arguing and drama. We all need to know where we all stand. Feel free to use the same template as I'm using or your own.

Who are your top three suspects?

1) keit. I feel the combined clues from today and day 1 strongly point toward him. Assuming the cookie monster is the assailant in both the first scenario of the first day and the third scenario of the third day, it all fits. His posting behavior is almost non-existent. He has been active only to accuse me of being mafia, probably a means by which to divide the town and distract attention away from actual mafia.

2) Hobbes. Not only have several clues from each day pointed toward him, but as some have pointed out: his posting history could be construed as suspicious, although not overwhelmingly so.

3) flamewheel91. The first scenario from day 2 strongly fits him. He has been very hostile in his defense and pretty much just flamed people/started pointing fingers once he was accused.

Who do you trust?

Only citi.zen. He is the only person confirmed to be green, unless he is the godfather which I find unlikely considering his posting history. Everyone else is potentially mafia.

Where does the town go from here?

Lynching keit and creating a double lynch for tomorrow. Many people have been suspecting hobbes since day 1, with tomorrows double lynch we can lynch him and another potential mafia. We have the possibility of reducing mafia kp to 2 if we lynch 1 mafia today and 2 tomorrow.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 05:34 GMT
#1351
Keit is a bit more likely than hobbes imo, two days worth of clues strongly reference him whereas most of the connections to Hobbes, except perhaps the one we have today, have been fairly weak.

his posting behavior is more suspicious as well imo
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 05:35 GMT
#1353
I'll be incarcerating meeple, unless anyone has any objections, this will make work easier for our medics.

While the mafia will simply hit 3 other people, this will at least guarantee meeple survives to the next day.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 05:45 GMT
#1355
On January 26 2010 14:42 JohannesH wrote:
I'd still prefer incarcerating citi.zen now, since medics mightve protected him last time and cant do that 2 times in a row. Yes theres several medics (i hope so at least :D) but that would seem easier to coordinate to me.

And then we might get the chance to incarcerate meeple next turn, if we lynch a 2 mafia in 2 days we can be 100% sure whether hes one of them. Which we dont need to do with citi.zen as far as i see, unless hes the goddamnfather.


Where does it say medics can't protect the same person twice in a row?

Is that a rule?
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 17:16 GMT
#1363
lol

i know right

I thought I was going to wake up to like 3-4 new pages of material.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 17:57 GMT
#1365
Clue 2, I don't have any suspect for it.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 18:36 GMT
#1367
On January 27 2010 03:33 Ng5 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2010 03:25 789 wrote:
On January 26 2010 02:59 Ng5 wrote:


I agree with you in the fact that it doesn't matter which order we take the mafia down, if we have 2 suspects to take down we do it - even if it doesn't reduce their KP. It seems that you, now correct me if I'm wrong, are ignoring the possibility that we won't have 2 mafia to lynch. You are one of the biggest supporters of using the double lynches asap, but you even abstained from voting in this last lynch. It seems that you don't think there are mafia we have figured out to lynch either, but still push for the double lynch. So, who would be the 2 people you would have suggested double lynching tomorrow (I know we don't have day 3 clues yet). You should have at least 1 in mind if you're going to push for it so hard.


There's no use of voting when the second day's lynching turned out to be still to random for my taste.

When it matters I will vote. If it was a double lynch today I would have voted.

But.

There's not much use to post too much under current circumstances. Other people are active enough, when I post I just give alternatives without stating opinion. I don't just guess around, and for me to make solid and clear statements I would like to be sure we are getting somewhere at least.

Killing two mafia would be getting somewhere, but yesterday I couldn't have convinced anyone to lynch the one I considered the most likely no matter what I had done. And that would have been only one mafia still.

Now go ahead and put the wet blanket on me for being cold and counting. I won't even defend myself, so you'll have an easier time.


You might have to wait a while for the rest of his argument, since he is dead
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 19:21 GMT
#1381
Why won't you discuss who you suspect? That's kind of strange.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 19:50 GMT
#1387
On January 27 2010 04:48 Ng5 wrote:
Show nested quote +

With that, he launched himself forward at the three town leaders, lifting his fists and taunting them with strange barbaric noises. Incognito was the quickest to react, and ran toward the corner of the room containing the refrigerator opening it to use the door as a shield. Unfortunately, the killer took advantage of the opportunity and kicked Incognito into the refrigerator and slammed the door shut, locking him into the cold. Glancing back, he noticed Kennigit rushing at him with a knife he found in the kitchen drawer. The killer blocked Kennigit's blade with an apple that had had fallen out of the refrigerator and swiftly proceeded to shove the remains of the apple down Kennigit's throat before throwing him out the window.


Mystlord eyem the strongest. Very-very weak link. It takes strength to throw someone out the window. But it doesn't to kick the fridge's door on someone.

keit Again the only link is showing down an apple down the victim's throat. I don't know much for how barbaric Cookie Monster is, but isn't it far-fetched to call him so?

Something not so obvious.

meeple Into the fray my friends, may our feet be swift, our hands be sure, and our necks keep a firm grasp on our heads. ... Swift feet... Just how swift should you be to kick the door on someone right as you see they are ducking behind it. Given that Incognito was the quickest to react. And hands sure? How sure (and quick) should hands be to block a knife with an apple. And also, being struck, blocking with an apple and showing it right down their throat - and then throwing them out of the window. The quote itself also seems something you would say before a charge - a far-fetched relation with taunting, but it's still not much more far-fetched than the previous links.

Another thing. Maybe there's someone linked to a barbaric/tribal shaman? I have the feeling something is still missing about this barbaric person we haven't uncovered yet. Just a feeling.


The Cookie Monster is extremely barbaric. The Cookie Monster constantly goes into raging frenzies where he destroys everything around him in search for cookies. This makes sense as the assailant searches the victims pockets for food after being beaten to death barbarically.

Also, the specific picture of the cookie monster in keit's profile shows the cookie monster shoving food down his throat.


Also, who does everyone think I should incarcerate? I'm going to incarcerate either meeple or citi.zen
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 19:51 GMT
#1388
On January 27 2010 04:50 Ng5 wrote:
Also the first guy taunted the ex-leaders with taking the nice little town. Which is another taunt. I can't picture the cookie monster taunting someone. It's more like the hockey zombie now?

Eat... his... brain...

Except for cookies.


I don't think every single aspect of the scenario applies as a clue.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 19:53 GMT
#1390
On January 27 2010 04:52 Ng5 wrote:
If he's extremely barbaric he would want to tear the opponent apart and rip them open instead of showing them in the fridge or throwing out the window. Taunting also isn't very brainlessly barbaric...


Shoving someone in a fridge and throwing them out the window is a pretty messy and barbaric way to kill someone.

Not every sentence in the scenario is a clue, so if you apply literally every "clue" to anyone they wouldn't fit 100%. Otherwise our work would be too easy.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
January 26 2010 22:02 GMT
#1413
Hobbes fits the first scenario far better than Jayme, imo, especially since he has been a suspect since day 1.

The third assailant is the same as the first assailant from Day 1, keit. I'm surprised I'm the only one who seems to suspect him, the connection seems so obvious.
RIP Aaliyah
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