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On April 04 2025 17:55 Uldridge wrote: I wonder what the US is going to do. I wonder how they're going to align themselves in the upcoming weeks/months. I'm wondering how they will deal with this uncertainty and volatility and hope markets settle on a not too harsh note.
I really wonder why stirring the pot when things are going fine is needed. Maybe US is anticipating WW3? Maybe they're worried about domestic manufacturing not being able to keep up with China... literal arms race again? We all know where that ends up. Prepare yourselves accordingly I'd say.
Yes, it's too late really to fix this.It should have been done in the 1990's, as Nancy Pelosi pointed out here back in 1996.
Anyway, going to be interesting to see how long they can keep the dollar alive.60 odd % tariffs on Chinese goods, and they're already paying over a trillion interest a year on the 36 trillion debt.In the case of runaway inflation would they try raise rates to 20% like they did in 1980? debt interest would be more than total tax take.Just go long gold and trade it for whatever digital money system they introduce after the dust settles.
On April 04 2025 17:55 Uldridge wrote: I wonder what the US is going to do. I wonder how they're going to align themselves in the upcoming weeks/months. I'm wondering how they will deal with this uncertainty and volatility and hope markets settle on a not too harsh note.
I really wonder why stirring the pot when things are going fine is needed. Maybe US is anticipating WW3? Maybe they're worried about domestic manufacturing not being able to keep up with China... literal arms race again? We all know where that ends up. Prepare yourselves accordingly I'd say.
Your missing a crucial point. This is Donald Trump your talking about, the idea that this is a thought out strategy runs counter to observable reality.
I would really like to believe you, but the fact that many of these people that set up the current system have elite education under their belt and a wealth of experience at very elite firms. I'm starting to step out of the knee jerk reactionary realm and into the deeper level strategies behind these what they are trying to accomplish. Maybe I'm naive, but maybe I'm stopping the emotional feeling of "what are they doing and why" of taking over. It makes no sense to make your superficial conclusion of "LOL TRUMP DUM" because you'll always be blindsided this way no matter what. His cabimet might be yes men, but they're not stupid ye men. Trump may be old and dementing and might not understand what is actually happening, but his cabinet does. And they're dangerous and they might be evil, they might be good intentioned, but misguided.. I don't know yet. I'm not going to endorse or even sympathise with what they're doing. I'm trying to understand what they're doing and the potential fallout of it all. Because... it's in full effect at the moment.
On April 04 2025 19:14 Uldridge wrote: I would really like to believe you, but the fact that many of these people that set up the current system have elite education under their belt and a wealth of experience at very elite firms. I'm starting to step out of the knee jerk reactionary realm and into the deeper level strategies behind these what they are trying to accomplish. Maybe I'm naive, but maybe I'm stopping the emotional feeling of "what are they doing and why" of taking over. It makes no sense because you'll always be blindsided this way no matter what. I'm not going to endorse or even sympathise with what they're doing. I'm trying to understand what they're doing and the potential fallout of it all. Because... it's in full effect at the moment.
I would love to hear the deep level strategy behind tariffing uninhabited islands
Ah yes, the one example that makes you throw your hands up and soothe yourself that the good guys will win in the end because the bad guys are doing wacky and silly things. Or.. what is your point?
You're actually getting sidetracked by this uninhabited island thing when they're tariffing basically the enitire economy. I suggest you stop doing that. Even if the end conclusion of it all is: well thay was indeed just stupid. Probably the stupidest thing ever.
I agree that bringing up uninhabited islands is a bad argument in this context. It's easy to counter and doesn't do much to convince people on the fence.
Eh, at a certain point the idiocy is too consistent and you have to accept that there's only one explanation for why they exclusively do things that only idiots would do.
On April 04 2025 19:14 Uldridge wrote: I would really like to believe you, but the fact that many of these people that set up the current system have elite education under their belt and a wealth of experience at very elite firms. I'm starting to step out of the knee jerk reactionary realm and into the deeper level strategies behind these what they are trying to accomplish. Maybe I'm naive, but maybe I'm stopping the emotional feeling of "what are they doing and why" of taking over. It makes no sense because you'll always be blindsided this way no matter what. I'm not going to endorse or even sympathise with what they're doing. I'm trying to understand what they're doing and the potential fallout of it all. Because... it's in full effect at the moment.
I would love to hear the deep level strategy behind tariffing uninhabited islands
sometimes stupid is just stupid.
I think that one is easy. Communication and distraction.
People talk about it. This means they talk less about stuff that actually matters. A lot of Trump strategy seems to be to spam communications with so much shit that no one can keep up, everyone is overwhelmed by all the shit, and no one really reacts.
Somehow doing one bad thing in total apparently feels more damning than doing 10 bad things and 20 idiotic things a week.
It seems weird to me, but it also seems to have been a strategy that has actually worked out for Trump so far. He keeps on doing stuff that should be completely disqualifying, but he does so much of it that no one can focus on one single thing for long.
If you just do one thing, you got a Watergate. If you keep on doing stupid shit, nothing sticks apparently.
On April 04 2025 08:17 Billyboy wrote: I believe the reason for all this has almost nothing to do with economy or trade. Trump did it/is doing it because it makes him the most important man in the world. He is being talked about by everyone all the time and on news stations across the globe. He also loves that it is something he can do without worrying about congress or the senate. And on top of that important people from everywhere need to call and talk to him about exceptions or whatever.
It is fantasy come true. That it is fucking the US does not matter to him one bit.
I also agree with the analysis that this won't last long and he will backtrack on it over non changes. Which is why it didn't crash the market further. However, I think he will continue to hold it over everyone's head, so that he can be the top story when ever he wants. This of course will be bad for the US because people will continue to be worried. But since all he cares about is him and the attention, he will continue to act this way.
If you try to make sense of this from a economic or what is best for America then it makes no sense., but if you look at this through the what gives Big Donald the most attention it makes perfect sense.
Thats definitely his main drive, but politically it aligns with what the oligarchs want. they can swoop and and buy businesses for penny on the dollar soon. I do disagree however, I think he will do this long term until there is enough backlash, and then claim he did the hard thing that america needed. call the crash a win and move on.
Hey look it’s possible to go ‘my bad got that one wrong’.
It happens, wouldn’t worry about it. Wouldn’t even make the third release of ‘Donald’s Whackiest Tweets’ I don’t think!
His cabimet might be yes men, but they're not stupid ye men.
I don't get how you arrived a this conclusion, especially after the Signal chat shit. These people just look and act as who they are, below average people who got assigned to their posts because they sucked up enough or have the "TV look" that Trump loves.
The competent people around Trump are few and far between and if they actually had a strategy beyond doing what he thinks is best they might have made these tariffs into something practical, targeted, thought out.
Instead they said we'll tariff everyone 10 % and use a formula suggested by ChatGPT in order to "calculate" the trade deficits and tariff countries based on that.
I'm willing to say that they might think they have a strategy that to them seems sound because they can't envision a world where everyone doesn't bend over to Trump, because they are all narcissists like him and if they are doing it why wouldn't everyone else, but sane washing this into "this is all a subtle way to prepare US for a showdown with China by boosting the domestic manufacturing" seems to rely on a lot of faith in people who deserve none of it.
On April 04 2025 08:17 Billyboy wrote: I believe the reason for all this has almost nothing to do with economy or trade. Trump did it/is doing it because it makes him the most important man in the world. He is being talked about by everyone all the time and on news stations across the globe. He also loves that it is something he can do without worrying about congress or the senate. And on top of that important people from everywhere need to call and talk to him about exceptions or whatever.
It is fantasy come true. That it is fucking the US does not matter to him one bit.
I also agree with the analysis that this won't last long and he will backtrack on it over non changes. Which is why it didn't crash the market further. However, I think he will continue to hold it over everyone's head, so that he can be the top story when ever he wants. This of course will be bad for the US because people will continue to be worried. But since all he cares about is him and the attention, he will continue to act this way.
If you try to make sense of this from a economic or what is best for America then it makes no sense., but if you look at this through the what gives Big Donald the most attention it makes perfect sense.
Thats definitely his main drive, but politically it aligns with what the oligarchs want. they can swoop and and buy businesses for penny on the dollar soon. I do disagree however, I think he will do this long term until there is enough backlash, and then claim he did the hard thing that america needed. call the crash a win and move on.
I think you are right on how it will end, it is the when question. I do believe that is what is keeping the market from falling way more drastically, it did not fall nearly far enough based on how awful the economic policy is. But a bunch of people will be thinking it will end any moment and be buying the dip. If he keeps them, it is going to be significantly lower next week than this week. You are also going to start hearing about mass layoffs.
Carelessness for following rules and procedure (Signalgate) should not be conflated with being unable to follow them or being too stupid to. Question: is the fact that Reps can brush this off as "well it's a mistake and we'll move on now", not insanely favorable for them? Another question: was this actually sensitive info being shared? Who's going to abuse this info? Which counter intel group can use this usefully? Yes, it could've been a different operation that was being talked about, but it wasn't. And that's how they spin it. Anti MAGA are obsessed with the what about scenarios all the while it slides off MAGAs skin like water. We need a better strat.
Their propaganda machine is working exactly as intended you're up in arms about it but your screams are silent because it doesn't matter to them what you say. You've lost.
Also, you have no idea about the intention of these people. These leaked messages might've even been an intentional set up to make "MSM" even more disfavorable in MAGA eyes. You don't know anything, neither do I. It's all speculation. It's all theater. It's all noise.
Don't assume stupid. That's how you can be caught off guard... for the 100000th time. Playing the fool is the easiest get out jail free card you can get. Treat them as machiavellian masterminds (I can't believe I've actually just typed this about Trump and his cabinet)
On April 04 2025 18:09 Sent. wrote: I admit my predictions related to US internal politics keep getting more and more wrong but I'm still convinced the populist right will collapse after Trump's final term and we'll go back to the standard Republican candidates after Trump's magic runs out.
On April 04 2025 21:30 Uldridge wrote: Carelessness for following rules and procedure (Signalgate) should not be conflated with being unable to follow them or being too stupid to. Question: is the fact that Reps can brush this off as "well it's a mistake and we'll move on now", not insanely favorable for them? Another question: was this actually sensitive info being shared? Who's going to abuse this info? Which counter intel group can use this usefully? Yes, it could've been a different operation that was being talked about, but it wasn't. And that's how they spin it. Anti MAGA are obsessed with the what about scenarios all the while it slides off MAGAs skin like water. We need a better strat.
Their propaganda machine is working exactly as intended you're up in arms about it but your screams are silent because it doesn't matter to them what you say. You've lost.
Also, you have no idea about the intention of these people. These leaked messages might've even been an intentional set up to make "MSM" even more disfavorable in MAGA eyes. You don't know anything, neither do I. It's all speculation. It's all theater. It's all noise.
Don't assume stupid. That's how you can be caught off guard... for the 100000th time. Playing the fool is the easiest get out jail free card you can get. Treat them as machiavellian masterminds (I can't believe I've actually just typed this about Trump and his cabinet)
They aren’t Machiavellian masterminds though. Indeed, by framing them thus you just validate the bullshit conception of ‘it’s not stupid it’s 4D chess’ that supporters have been spouting for years.
It’s a quite simple problem fundamentally, but redressing it is extremely, extremely complicated.
Nothing seemingly actually works, so we gotta ride it out for the time being.
I’m calling it now, when these tariffs actually start biting and taking money out of American pockets, the MAGA crowd are just going to suck it up. Some are even going to blame anything but the tariffs.
That’s the fundamental problem. Stupidity handwaved by yet further stupidity. Good luck coming up with a counter strategy there. I certainly haven’t, and I’ve tried much.
On April 04 2025 21:30 Uldridge wrote: Carelessness for following rules and procedure (Signalgate) should not be conflated with being unable to follow them or being too stupid to. Question: is the fact that Reps can brush this off as "well it's a mistake and we'll move on now", not insanely favorable for them? Another question: was this actually sensitive info being shared? Who's going to abuse this info? Which counter intel group can use this usefully? Yes, it could've been a different operation that was being talked about, but it wasn't. And that's how they spin it.
I started paying attention here relatively recently so I can't tell if I'm talking with a serious person or someone like oBlade, but I'll try to answer this in a civil way.
1. What I was referring to is the quality of discourse, it looked and felt like a bunch of morons talking about serious stuff because that's what it was. Other things that make these people stupid: Buying their own "bailing out Europe" bullshit, being "clear on OPSEC", posting dumb emojis about bombing people, accessing these kind of chats from enemy territory (Russia) and so much more.
The fact that Republicans took Cohn / Trump never admit being wrong, deny, deny, deny and always declare victory shtick doesn't make them smart, the fact that people are accepting it makes those people dumb.
2. Yes, the info on the exact timing of sorties of Jets flying off of aircraft carriers along with types of planes, ordinances and where the targets are being posted is extremely reckless, the groups who could use this info would be, I don't know, Iranians or their close allies Russians who could use it to with the advance knowledge of it happening to shoot down billions worth of airplanes and cost American lives.
You seem very intent to believe these people are some masterminds of media manipulation and you ascribe every idiotic thing they do to being a strategy, I'm not sure if this is cope or lapping up their propaganda but in both cases, in my opinion it's a very deluded way of viewing these people.
On April 04 2025 21:30 Uldridge wrote: Carelessness for following rules and procedure (Signalgate) should not be conflated with being unable to follow them or being too stupid to. Question: is the fact that Reps can brush this off as "well it's a mistake and we'll move on now", not insanely favorable for them? Another question: was this actually sensitive info being shared? Who's going to abuse this info? Which counter intel group can use this usefully? Yes, it could've been a different operation that was being talked about, but it wasn't. And that's how they spin it. Anti MAGA are obsessed with the what about scenarios all the while it slides off MAGAs skin like water. We need a better strat.
Their propaganda machine is working exactly as intended you're up in arms about it but your screams are silent because it doesn't matter to them what you say. You've lost.
Also, you have no idea about the intention of these people. These leaked messages might've even been an intentional set up to make "MSM" even more disfavorable in MAGA eyes. You don't know anything, neither do I. It's all speculation. It's all theater. It's all noise.
Don't assume stupid. That's how you can be caught off guard... for the 100000th time. Playing the fool is the easiest get out jail free card you can get. Treat them as machiavellian masterminds (I can't believe I've actually just typed this about Trump and his cabinet)
They aren’t Machiavellian masterminds though. Indeed, by framing them thus you just validate the bullshit conception of ‘it’s not stupid it’s 4D chess’ that supporters have been spouting for years.
It’s a quite simple problem fundamentally, but redressing it is extremely, extremely complicated.
Nothing seemingly actually works, so we gotta ride it out for the time being.
I’m calling it now, when these tariffs actually start biting and taking money out of American pockets, the MAGA crowd are just going to suck it up. Some are even going to blame anything but the tariffs.
That’s the fundamental problem. Stupidity handwaved by yet further stupidity. Good luck coming up with a counter strategy there. I certainly haven’t, and I’ve tried much.
The core problem is that while they are stupid, they are also winning. Winning at breaking stuff and making everything shitty, but they still get to make the decisions.
"They are stupid" isn't actually helpful, because that still means that we are losing to stupid people.
EPT
