EPT
Hello folks and welcome to our coverage of the Afreeca Starleague Season 5. It's been months since the 4th season concluded and boy are we excited to see both old and new faces (Calm, Horang2 and Action) compete to be crowned ASL5 champ! With the addition of 2 new maps, including an island one, this season should provide some wacky and hopefully, entertaining games.
Will we see mass air battles involving devourers, mutalisks, carriers and corsairs? Will we finally see dark archons and arbiters in action? What will be the final result of all the bouts that take place and will the new comers to ASL find their old stride and progress upwards? Moving on, Group A, featuring Light, Shine, Sky and Shuttle, has been previewed by Bisudagger while FlaShFTW previewed group B which features EffOrt, Stork, GuemChi and Horang2.
With Group A set to start in , it's time for all the players to lay it down on the line for a chance to advance to the Ro16 and join the group selection ceremony. Let's get hypeddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will we see mass air battles involving devourers, mutalisks, carriers and corsairs? Will we finally see dark archons and arbiters in action? What will be the final result of all the bouts that take place and will the new comers to ASL find their old stride and progress upwards? Moving on, Group A, featuring Light, Shine, Sky and Shuttle, has been previewed by Bisudagger while FlaShFTW previewed group B which features EffOrt, Stork, GuemChi and Horang2.
With Group A set to start in , it's time for all the players to lay it down on the line for a chance to advance to the Ro16 and join the group selection ceremony. Let's get hypeddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!!
Table of contents
Liquipedia
A Toughie
Group A features
Shuttle, Sky, 
Light, and 
Shine. This group is anything but, decided before going into the matchups. And even though Shuttle and Shine have had their moments in the ASL spotlight, all 4 have failed to make much of their appearance in the recent ASL. Here’s a breakdown of each player's success going into ASL 5:Shuttle’s success since ASL 1 starts with his peak and is a downward slope. His results since winning ASL 1 are two eliminations in the round of 16 and one in the round of 24. Throughout those tournaments, he has shown a great weakness against Terran players during the group stage. When faced with a best of one and in an unprepared scenario, Shuttle does not perform well. Outside of the ASL, Shuttle has also had bad results. Since March 2016, Shuttle has put up a win rate below 50%.
Sky has only qualified for one ASL where he was promptly eliminated 0-2. In the past two years, he has only won two of his past 9 premier league games. Sky still rides the coattails of success during the Sonic era. Still, it is impressive that he has re-qualified for the ASL.
Light has qualified for three of Afreeca’s starleagues since his return to the scene. He has established himself in the post Kespa era as a group stage junkie. He is a well-established top 24 level player, but does not do well in unprepared best of ones. Despite Light's ability to qualify for premier leagues, his overall win rate is sub-fifty percent. He lost 2 of his three group stage appearances to groups with 2 or more Zergs, so stacking the deck is of no benefit to him.
Shine is late to the Afreeca party. Like Shuttle, he is in danger of showing that his finals appearance in ASL3 was a fluke and he is also on a downward slope. Shine lost his ASL4 group due to his inability to win ZvZ, so it’s impossible to throw out the slump card yet. With no new games in premier matches played by Shine since November, more analysis will have to be done should he advance out of this group.
Bringing all of the above data together, the next step is to address the maps and how they impact this group. Sparkle, the island map, is the first to be played. Shuttle has the micro advantage against Sky. Shuttle should easily win with good reaver and shuttle management. Sky only wins if he goes straight to DTs and Shuttle doesn’t go obs first. Light should also have an easy victory over Shine. No amount of tricks will help a Zerg against Light on an island map. Light has a huge mechanical advantage when it comes to dropships and marine micro. This will be an easy one for him.
Shuttle > Sky
Light > Shine
Light > Shine
Transistor, the three position map, is played for the winners' and losers' match. Based off predictions, Shuttle will be facing off against Light. Terran has some nice advantages on this map, but it is Light’s worse match up. Shuttle also at this time, can win this group by focusing on one skill, reaver harassment. As mentioned by Legionnaire in his map analysis, this is a big weak point for Terran natural bases. Shuttle is the favorite to win this match. Light should do his best to avoid standard play. Shine will be facing Sky on this map and has been great with Protoss players of all skill over the past two years. The map advantages for Sky are nullified as Shine is simply the better player.
Shuttle > Light
Shine > Sky
Shine > Sky
The final map, Gladiator, features a premium matchup between Shine and Light. Both players have some clear map advantages going into this match. Barring bad spawn positioning, Shine could do really well here with strong mutalisk harassment in the early game. Meanwhile, should Light take little early game damage, he can exhibit his brilliant SK Terran style play to shut down the very hard to take third base for Zerg players. Once Light has full control of his dropships, this game will start to look very ugly for Shine. This is a tough one that comes down to a tie breaker. Considering Light’s inability to advance through group stages consistently and how pissed off Shine is going to be at Light for getting a win on an island map against him earlier, Shine will manage to eek one out in this group.
Shine > Light
Shuttle and Shine to advance to the Ro16!
Into the Hydra’s Den
No, Hydra isn’t in this group, but that’s what the 3 Protoss players are going to feel when they have to go up against
EffOrt’s dominant ZvP. Bountiful PvP mirrors on maps that encourage mass drop play, so watch for some reaver, DT, or storm explosions around the maps. None of these players really strike me as a top contender though. EffOrt always chokes in the ASL, Horang2 couldn’t even qualify the past few times, Stork is a shell of his former self, and GuemChi is still your average Protoss player. Will Sparkle be enough to contain EffOrt, or will he run away with this group leaving Auir’s hope scrambling for the last qualifying spot?Game 1: EffOrt < Sparkle > Horang2
The various changes to Sparkle have really pushed it more and more for Zerg, which is good considering Zerg needs all the help it can get on island maps. While at first, I would have easily written this off as an easy win for Horang2, the recent games on the latest edition of Sparkles have changed my mind. The additional Lairs at each of the mains has really ensured that Zerg will have various options moving into the mid-late game for expansions and more gas to keep up with the more cost efficient skytoss. Scourge flying to each of the different bases to provide vision for nydus canals, and Zerg to control the sky with mass scourge to deter shuttle drops will be the key, and I believe that with EffOrt’s impressive mutalisk and scourge micro, he should be able to pull out the win here.
EffOrt > Horang2
Game 2: Stork < Sparkle > GuemChi
Stork’s PvP is nothing like what it used to be, and he also hasn’t been taking the game as seriously these days. He’s been too inconsistent to give a good read on him, with recent loses to Scan and Snow while taking a PvP off of BeSt. GuemChi isn’t a good PvPer by any means either, and hasn’t been in any tournaments for a while as well, so it’s tough to give a great read on this. I will say that with Sparkle being the map, encouraging mass drop play, and Stork being known for his shuttles (at least in the past), I’ll have to give the slightest of edges to Stork. Also, with the map being all about information, Stork should have the upper hand as he is known for being the best player to utilize information.
Stork > GuemChi
Winner’s Match: EffOrt < Transistor > Stork
Stork’s PvZ has always been his worst matchup, while EffOrt’s ZvP has always been his best. That being said, the early game on Transistor will be quite interesting to watch, especially with the weird chokes leading to the main and the close air distances. It’s very possible that we see EffOrt open 9 pool and try to bust up the ramp with a flank if Stork opens gate-first on the high ground. Look for Stork to try some corsair + drop play early on while EffOrt looks to deflect with potentially early mutalisk play to abuse the air rush.
EffOrt > Stork
Loser’s Match: Horang2 < Transistor > GuemChi
1 gate reaver openers will be the most common opener on this map. You can’t counter so well, because the rush distance is longer than the air distance. We might see fast DTs as a counter to players who open reaver first over observer first, hoping to take advantage of the tech path. Horang2 strikes me as that player to go DT first, but GuemChi should sniff it out and play the safer obs first.
Horang2 < GuemChi
Final Match: Stork < Gladiator > GuemChi
Gladiator is still a decent enough drop map to give Stork a slight edge, with large exposed mains and droppable 3rds. Stork will probably have some confidence after beating GuemChi in their first match, so don’t be surprised here if Stork comes out racing. Using the ridges will be the focal point of the game to decide large scale battles while using the side paths for zealot harass will be crucial. Expect a solid macro game from both players, but Stork should take the win.
Stork > GuemChi
EffOrt and Stork to advance to the Round of 16!
