EPT[FPL] 09-10 R2 Discussion - Page 33
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pachi
Melbourne5338 Posts
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ShadowDrgn
United States2497 Posts
On January 07 2010 10:47 Kouda wrote: Jangbi for JD. Rooofl. Epic trade doods. I don't think it's quite as easy of a trade as it looks. Assuming both of them get sent out in week 7 against average opponents, Oz should win 1/2 and Khan 2/3. Jaedong has to play Kal and Jangbi is against Shine/Ruby. Kal isn't bad, Jangbi is on a 6 game PvZ streak, and Ruby is on a 6 game losing streak. Looking pretty good for Jangbi, but let's be pessimistic. Jangbi 50% chance to win games: 2 team points 3 points expected value from 3 matches (EV of 50% chance to win is 1 point) 1.5 ace points (3 matches * 50% chance of ace match * 25% chance to be sent * 4 points (average with 50% chance to win it)) Jaedong 66% chance to win games: 1 team point 4 points expected value from 2 matches (EV of 66% chance to win is 2 points) 1.5 ace points (2 matches * 33% chance of ace match * 50% chance to be sent (he's only been sent 1 of 3 this round, but come on it's Jaedong) * 4.6 points (66%)) Expected value of both players is equivalent: 6.5 points. Trading costs you a point as well. Jangbi is also the higher variance play since he has more opportunities to win/lose. I suppose if you're sitting in the top 10 with Jangbi and want a safer bet, the trade is good, but if you really need to squeeze out some final points, Jangbi is the way to go. I can't believe how long this ended up being. I'm such a nerd. | ||
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kOre
Canada3642 Posts
Main Team  EffOrt for  JangBiCJ Entus for Woongjin Stars Anti Team ZerO for StorkI'm already ranked 1500 so I might as well make some crazy trades to try and get huge points and maybe finish in the triple digits  | ||
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Kouda
United States2205 Posts
On January 07 2010 15:16 ShadowDrgn wrote: I don't think it's quite as easy of a trade as it looks. Assuming both of them get sent out in week 7 against average opponents, Oz should win 1/2 and Khan 2/3. Jaedong has to play Kal and Jangbi is against Shine/Ruby. Kal isn't bad, Jangbi is on a 6 game PvZ streak, and Ruby is on a 6 game losing streak. Looking pretty good for Jangbi, but let's be pessimistic. Jangbi 50% chance to win games: 2 team points 3 points expected value from 3 matches (EV of 50% chance to win is 1 point) 1.5 ace points (3 matches * 50% chance of ace match * 25% chance to be sent * 4 points (average with 50% chance to win it)) Jaedong 66% chance to win games: 1 team point 4 points expected value from 2 matches (EV of 66% chance to win is 2 points) 1.5 ace points (2 matches * 33% chance of ace match * 50% chance to be sent (he's only been sent 1 of 3 this round, but come on it's Jaedong) * 4.6 points (66%)) Expected value of both players is equivalent: 6.5 points. Trading costs you a point as well. Jangbi is also the higher variance play since he has more opportunities to win/lose. I suppose if you're sitting in the top 10 with Jangbi and want a safer bet, the trade is good, but if you really need to squeeze out some final points, Jangbi is the way to go. I can't believe how long this ended up being. I'm such a nerd. Dont worry, I actually read it all. >_>;; Still <an> epic trade. | ||
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nobodyhome
United States139 Posts
Now, stork is great, and I'd bet on him to win a match almost against any other player right now except Flash. The only problem is that he isn't gonna be sent out for the match against ACE (loool January doesn't think they need stork to beat ACE), so his trade value is somewhat inflated with respect to his point-generating potential. The people I can trade stork for are: Bisu Really Violet Roro Leta Sea Effort Jangbi Jaedong and everybody else down from there is a scrub compared to Stork (Zero is not a possibility because I have him on my anti-team as a result of a series of unfortunate trades). Bisu is playing like crap so I don't want him. Really has difficult opponents next week (fantasy and flash) so he's a no go. Violet is playing against Action and Crazy-Hydra, ez opponents but his PvZ is his worst MU and if the games ever go to the ace matchup he won't ever be sent out. Roro isn't that great and he has to play fbh, who sucks but is good TvZ. Leta has only two matches left (hite has played 9) and he has to play Effort this week. No good. Sea is like stork, only being sent out for one game this week. Effort is playing Leta. Jangbi is playing against Shine and Ruby. He'll probably beat Ruby (who sucks TvP), but might lose to Shine. Jaedong only has two games left, one of them is this week against Kal, so it's not a sure win. As I see it, if I want to try to get more points, trading away Jangbi for Stork is my best option. It'll all hinge on whether or not he'll beat Shine. But it's a gamble, so if I want to be safe, Stork is better since he'll probably beat Pure this week (and might be sent out for ace). Thoughts? | ||
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Itachii
Poland12466 Posts
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kOre
Canada3642 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + All 3 of these guys lost their games today lol way to rack in points at the end of the season when I'm ranked 1500 | ||
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Kyuukyuu
Canada6263 Posts
resisted the jb for jd trade O_O lookin good lol. /crosses fingers /nojinx | ||
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prototype.
Canada4215 Posts
On January 09 2010 14:39 kOre wrote: Stork Hyun Anytime ... my Anti Team. + Show Spoiler + All 3 of these guys lost their games today lol way to rack in points at the end of the season when I'm ranked 1500 + Show Spoiler + erm.. hyun was sent out for ace match and won | ||
Carnivorous Sheep
Baa?21244 Posts
Trading away han on antiteam was also a good decision. Top 10 is still within reach, come on! | ||
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thopol
Japan4560 Posts
EDIT: Whoop, nope, pleasant surprise. | ||
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Noxide
United States2870 Posts
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pripple
Finland1714 Posts
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3 Lions
United States3705 Posts
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kOre
Canada3642 Posts
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Kyuukyuu
Canada6263 Posts
hopefully many people got owned by Really today as I did  | ||
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iamho
United States3347 Posts
too bad i traded violet for him instead of 815 -.- | ||
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Itachii
Poland12466 Posts
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BloodDrunK
Bangladesh2767 Posts
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Garnet
Vietnam9033 Posts
On January 10 2010 14:56 BloodDrunK wrote: trading away really for violet was probably the worst decission i've made in FPL. I did that too. But don't worry they have one more game to play so you never know. | ||
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