King of Kong Ro 8 Preview

Note: I love writing and I love watching SC2, so I figured that I would combine the two and write my own thoughts on the upcoming AOL King of Kong Ro 8. I am not a high-level player at Starcraft 2, just someone who has watched too many GSLs. That said, I hope you enjoy my thoughts

Group A

FXOLeenock

The Leenocktopus has been on a rampage in the past couple months, razing MLG Providence to the ground and coming close to taking the GSL Nov. crown from Jjakji. It took a resurgent MC and Leenock’s worst matchup to stop Leenock in the Blizzard Cup. Taking a look at the lack of protoss in his group and in the tournament as a whole, Leenock couldn’t have asked for better chances to win outright.

Given Leenock’s comfort in using early pressure builds or playing long macro games in ZvT and ZvZ, Leenock should make it out of his group. MarineKing is the only terran in the group that will be able to present a serious threat to Leenock’s ZvT, and you can be sure that Leenock will be preparing to adapt to anything unusual that the Fabulous King of Marines will throw his way.

Leenock’s first game is against TOP, and even though TOP has a decent record against zerg, it is hard to see TOP playing consistently enough to challenge Leenock’s ZvT. Losira is the other notable player in this group full of strong wild cards, but I would tip the scales in favor of Leenock in this case as he showed some great ZvZ play against DRG in MLG Providence, even though that was under entirely different circumstances.

Momentum is on the Leenocktopus’s side, so count on him to possibly making it all the way to the finals. MarineKing and DRG are the only other players in the tournament currently at his skill level, and without an elite protoss or MMA/Jjakji standing in his way, he has great chances to become the King of Kongs.

IMLosira

If Leenock and Losira had a competition to see who was the cutest player in the GSL, I would be hard-pressed to choose between them. But alas, the King of Kong isn’t a cuteness contest, and Leenock has too much momentum going for him. Unlike Leenock, Losira has been has been languishing in Code A after suffering bitter and surprising defeats.

One of the themes behind Losira’s recent defeats has been his inability to adapt. In his Up-Down group the his most critical loss that cost him his Code S spot happened because he failed to capitalize on large supply and upgrade lead over Zenio, letting Zenio tech faster and claw his way back to victory. Against InCa’s unexpected chronoboosted-zealot-pressure-into-expand-into-dark-shrine strategy, Losira just fell apart completely.

We also can’t forget about his loss to Slayers_Brown in the GSL Nov. Code A Ro24 when he failed to come up with an answer to Slayers_Brown’s mothership-carrier-archon army in the first game and let voidrays run riot over his bases in the second game. It has become clear that Losira’s confidence has been waning recently and Leenock and MarineKing will undoubtedly do everything they can to make sure he remains rattled.

Don’t be quick to write off Losira though, as he still has the raw mechanical skill and superb practice partners that has let him overcome some of his weaknesses. He handily defeated terrans Virus and Polt in his GSL Dec. Up-Down group, showing that he has made great strides in his weakest matchup, and having Nestea in the wings as a coach and practice partner him in the running. Losira needs to get past MarineKing’s solid TvZ in his first match up, and after that most likely face Leenock’s even scarier ZvZ, so it’s going to be an uphill battle for Losira.

oGsTOP

Out of all the GSL finalists, TOP has had the most crushing fall from grace. He amazed us with his solid mechanics and outstanding macro when he took the GSL Jan. Code A finals from Byun, and in his run to the GSL Aug. Code S Finals showed us the first glimpses of how dominating perfect macro-terran play would be. But afterwards things fell apart for TOP as the Korean metagame caught up to him, and he was unceremoniously knocked out of Code A by Parting in the GSL Nov. Code A Ro48.

If his play against Parting is still an indication of his current skill, TOP still has one of the scariest macro in the GSL. It i his tactical decision making that needs improvement, as all of his losses to Parting he let Parting dominate the map and force unfavorable engagements. TOP’s rather mediocre tactical understanding across all matchups has left a lot to be desired, and this weakness is the main reason why he has fallen into the purgatory of Code B.

Perhaps the most worrying thing for TOP fans and supporters is his mindset. When TOP returned to the spotlight at WCG 2011, he got defeated in group play by zergs (Z)

oGsLine and (Z)

AnnYeongPrime, neither of whom have great ZvT statistics. The long string of defeats since the GSL Aug. Code S Finals has undoubtedly weighed heavily on TOP’s psyche, and his recent results have proved that he is still in a deep slump.

If TOP cannot mentally surmount his string of defeats, he won’t be able address his weaknesses, much less provide a challenge a well-rounded and confident player like Leenock, who is his first opponent. TOP has the skill to run deep in the tournament, but he’ll need either lots of luck or more time to improve, and he won’t have either of those when the tournament starts. Don’t count on TOP making it out of the group.

MarineKingPrime

Out of all the players in King of Kong tournament, MarineKing undoubtedly is the most dangerous player. Every player in the tournament is fully capable of cheesing or succeeding with all-ins, but MarineKing stands out in this regard thanks to his star sense and superb unit control, often claiming victories where others would have failed.

As deadly as MarineKing is with early pressure, he’s also just as adept in taking matches to the mid and late game. His dynamic playstyle and unpredictable deadliness the reason why players are loathe to pick him in group nomination ceremonies, and why he’s has been a force in the GSL since used the ID Boxer in the second GSL. There’s a reason why MarineKing has consistently made it to many finals, and it isn’t because of the screaming fangirls that constantly follow him around.

Since TOP most likely won’t provide much of a challenge MarineKing, or even get a chance to face him as Leenock will most likely take TOP out, he only has to focus on TvZ in his group. The last TvZ that he played in the GSL, he absolutely smothered Zenio with his mid-game mech play in the first game and early hellion-marine-medevac pressure in the second game. With a astonishing 67.86% win percentage against zergs, there’s no doubt that MarineKing can take a series against Losira and Leenock.

MarineKing has a great shot at making it into the Ro4, and if he gets there he’ll definitely be in a position to rightfully claim the King of Kong crown.

Group A Predictions

+ Show Spoiler +

Leenock and MarineKing to Ro4

Group B

STJuly

The SC2 metagame and styles will always evolve and change, but if there is one thing in SC2 that remains constant, it will be July’s love of strong and aggressive play. July loves to bludgeon his enemies into the ground, whether it makes sense to do so or not, and his legendary stubbornness to commit to snap-decision attacks makes it hard to guess how he’ll do in any series.

To make things more complicated, July’s first match is against Inca. Two fairly unconventional players responsible for two of the weirdest GSL finals going head to head in a Bo3? That’s as unpredictable as you can get.

July’s style relies almost exclusively on exploiting tactical opportunities or forcing those opportunities to appear, but against consistent and methodical opponents July has struggled to grab victories. July did do decently in his GSL Dec. Up-Down groups going 3-2, but victories only came about because of glaring mistakes that Hero, Clide, and Luvsic made with their failed early pressures. When YuGiOh and JYP played it safe and reacted smartly to July’s strategies, July was severely outclassed in those defeats.

InCa and Rainbow might give July the opportunities that allow his style to flourish, but it is unlikely he’ll be able to force the same crucial mistakes from DongRaeGu. July’s chances to make it out of the group rests solely on his abilities to beat the intelligent and similarly stubborn InCa, and given how July looked recently in the Up-Down matches I’m inclined to give InCa the advantage. July still can make it to the Ro4 if he loses to InCa in the first series though, so Group B will definitely be the most interesting group to watch.

STRainBOw

I don’t think very many people remember Rainbow, as it has been a long time since he has been relevant in the GSL, and even longer time since he rocked the SC2 scene in the beta. Rainbow is still a decent player, and one of the main reasons why he hasn’t produced any noticeable results in the recent GSL seasons is due to his losses to a long list of familiar terran names; sC, TOP, Rain, Clide, and Bomber.

But as much as we can analyze his most recent games, look at his statistics, and theorize on his chances in the tournament, it is impossible to escape the fact that his first match is against DRG. Rainbow is no MMA, and DRG has historically crushed much more accomplished and arguably more skillful terrans before.

Watching Rainbow’s stream as he played a Bo3 against (Z)

viOLet in the most recent NA Playhem daily, even the most optimistic and wishful part of me cannot conjure up any scenario in which Rainbow gets past DRG. Rainbow’s overall TvZ play leaves a lot to be desired, on both tactical and strategic levels. Considering the number of strong zergs in this tournament, the chances of him advancing at all is almost nil.

There is a possibility that he can make decent progress if he goes up against Inca, as he is most comfortable versus protoss, but even then it is hard to bet on Rainbow in that situation. Rainbow will have to show us a level of play that goes above and beyond what he’s showed in GSL Nov. and in the recent NA Playhem, but it is doubtful that anybody in the tournament will give him a chance to shine.

oGsInCa

InCa was the main force behind the worst and most bizzare GSL finals so far, and arguably is the least loved participant in the King of Kong tournament. Whether or not you may love him and his play, there is no denying his creativity in his gameplay, and he still is finding ways to make dark templar builds relevant in the highest levels of professional SC2 play.

Unfortunately for oGs’s PvP sniper, he’ll have to crank his creativity up a few more notches to survive in the tournament. Stuck in a group with July and DRG, his 38% win rate against zergs seems to indicate that he won’t be advancing very far. But every time I mentally write InCa off the list, my mind always wanders back to his game versus Losira in the GSL Dec. Up-Down, where he pulled off a brilliant zealot-pressure into dark templars that left Losira completely paralyzed.

As much as it is InCa’s creativity behind his recent resurgence in the GSL, credit has to be given to his determination and willingness to lay it all on the line. It takes intelligent understanding of the matchups, lots of practice, and insurmountable faith in one’s skill to rely on unusual builds at such a high level. Opponents that have taken these factors for granted and underestimated InCa have often lost to the very builds that they should been prepared for.

If there was a dark horse in the King of Kong tournament, it would be InCa. While statistically it doesn’t seem that InCa will be advancing to the Ro4, InCa has always consistently blown away expectations. Combined with his ability to execute strong standard play, InCa has the potential to be just as volatile as MarineKing. I’ve doubted InCa before, but this time I think he’ll be able to make it to the Ro4.

MVPDongRaeGu

DRG’s legendary run versus MMA in the finals of the Blizzard Cup was one that will live forever in the hearts of Starcraft 2 fans, and at the moment he is arguably the best zerg in the GSL currently. DRG has ridiculous overall win percentage of 68.12% that only is just barely beaten by MVP’s according to the TLPD, and he definitely has the most momentum going into the King of Kong tournament.

In Group B DRG doesn’t really have any serious competition. InCa and July both have poor records versus zergs, and Rainbow has the unfortunate honor of meeting and most likely losing to DRG in his first match. While MarineKing and Leenock have to deal with more qualified opposition in Group A, DRG has the luxury of relatively easier opponents in his group.

Looking past his group into the Ro4 and beyond, DRG’s true challengers will be Leenock or MarineKing. Both Leenock and MarineKing have defeated DRG in finals before, at MLG Providence and the first Arena of Legends. Given DRG’s strong ZvZ, I’m more inclined to say that MarineKing is the one that DRG has to worry about despite DRG’s well-known preference for ZvT. MarineKing won’t let DRG get comfortable, and as MMA proved in the Blizzard Cup, even DRG is mortal to well-planned pressure builds.

Sorry, this was the Ro8 preview? Whoops. I don't have much more to say about DRG.

Group B Predictions

+ Show Spoiler +

InCa and DRG to Ro4

Somewhat Relevant Funny Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMWZlF6BSi0

King of Kong Ro 8 Preview

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