Estonia4504 Posts
Merry Holidays everyone!
You might have noticed that the Proleague team took a short break, but rest assured, it is only to keep the quality of our news-posts at the high standards we set ourselves. However, there is one part of the regular news-post that doesn't really allow for breaks, which is the predictions part. Hence, I dropped the holiday mutton and sat down at my keyboard to try and give you at least something to pass the time until the next news-post comes around. Enjoy!
Predictions Progress, post week 4
aka. Back to the drawing board:
CURRENT:11
ACE vs. SKT Predicted: 1-3 Actual: 1-3 Gain/Loss: +3
KHAN vs. 8 Predicted: 3-2 Actual: 3-1 Gain/Loss: +1
Stars vs. KT Predicted: - Actual: 1-3 Gain/Loss: -3
8 vs. CJ Predicted: 1-3 Actual: 2-3 Gain/loss: +1
ACE vs. KHAN Predicted: 1-3 Actual: 3-0 Gain/loss: -2
STX vs. SKT Predicted: 0-3 Actual: 3-1 Gain/loss: -2
Total: 9
What went right last week:
This match was predicted completely correctly, but with a bit of a surprise. ACE has a great Trran lineup with Iris, Piano and FBH and a pretty good Zerg in ggaemo. I expected great and Kal to come out and lose, continuing their slumps, but none of the good ACE Terrans playing in favor of playing Canata and M18M? Really? Honestly, ACE deserved being walked over, despite a pretty good game by M18M. I guess neither team took the match all that seriously, since SKT played Hyuk (who despite winning, still looked out of form) and Ssak instead of Soo and BeSt, who should hard-counter the Terran heavy lineup of ACE, but a win is a win. I stand by saying that ACE should have tried a little harder though.
Stork, RorO and Jangbi are all really, really strong, hence I thought KHAN would win 3-2, but Team 8 chose to forego playing Baby AND Killer in favor of the former MBC Protosses who are just a bit off their game at this point. Jaehoon falling to a cannon rush in particular was both sad and predictable for me personally, since I am a fan of his and only wish him well for this season, yet he seems to lack the starsense players like Flash employ to mindboggling effect. (Seriously, watch Light vs. Flash, and tell me the kid does not have some form of maphack!) I can blame either the Team 8 coach for suboptimal matchups, the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the sponsorless team or both at once, but Team 8 really needs some additional boost to stay with the competition.
This result was actually very different from the one in my head. CJ drew an uncharacteristic amount of bad matchups with Jaedong vs. Snow and Movie vs. Sea. To my surprise, they won the unfavorable matchups and lost a really good matchup in Hydra vs. Killer. On the other hand, CJ still seems like an autowin against most teams due to the sheer depth it has at it's disposal. Even Skyhigh seems to have some spark reignited in him (he better, if he wants to make an appearance in CJ-s CURRENT lineup), so predicting CJ wins seems safe for Liquibets and this challenge.
What went wrong last week:
Suits me right for only checking the TL calendar. Not predicting a match should be appropriately punished. This means -3 points.
BAM! Who saw this coming?!? Certainly not me, and certainly not KHAN. While playing Juni when you have Shine and RorO seems a little weird, I do understand fielding the poor kid when you think you have the match in the bag. But I can't even blame KHAN's loss on overconfidence, since they sent out Jangbi and Stork, their best players, to play in sets 2 and 3. Against a slumping Kal and a Woongjin Terran, this should have brought KHAN back in the lead, but they were not just beaten, they were outplayed! People dissing PianO need to look at his last 10 games record and see how good he has become in uniform, and a revived Kal might make ACE a serious threat to just about everyone. Just wow.
I tend to not believe in miracles. Some part of me still doesn't believe this just happened, but after rewatching the games, I do have to admit just how wrong I was in putting down the team I love so much. The STX coach did some good sniping for a change, and SKT bringing out the big guns did not help a bit when confronted by an unexpected performance from Last and thought-to-be-slumping Bogus and Calm. Last in particular proved my trust in him with a stranglehold even the OSL champion Fantasy couldn't break. Mark my words, this kid will pull more upsets!
Predictions, Week 5:
At the start of the season, many wrote Woongjin off as a low-tier team, yet surprisingly, they managed to inch their way into 3rd place, partly due to a uncharacteristic performance by SKT, and partly because of the revival of free and the aquiring of Shy. Why then, do I think that this match swings badly in favor of CJ? Because Woongjin specializes in defeating Terran, yet CJ is mainly carried by it's Zergs and Protoss. While Soulkey's vP and vZ are formidable, I would still give an edge to Movie, Effort and Hydra against him. Ditto with Zero and free, and I won't even give much of a doubt in regards to Shy. Light is the major flaw in my theory, seeing how well he played against BeSt, and for his Prowess in TvZ, but there is only 1 of him, and CJ's Gosu-coaches might be able to snipe him with Snow, Horang2, Skyhigh or Leta.
My prediction: CJ Entus 3-1 Woongjin Stars
Don't just skim over this portion, this match might actually change the momentum of Proleague entirely, if the so called "miracles" are actually sign of things to come. Whichever team wins this match will have an equal win-loss ratio and a 3 win-streak momentum. Becoming a winning team changes a lot of things, and losing now could mean a downward spiral to the bottom of the barrel again. Both teams were written off by both me and a majority of people just a week ago, yet they managed to defeat teams that looked much stronger on paper with dedication and practice, practice, practice. I sincerely believe that against each other, they will do their best to keep that momentum up and continue a winning streak that will make them a force to be reckoned with in round 2. All my STX fanboyism aside, I have to acknowledge KT Rolster as the favorite this game, especially since the teams they defeated were a lot stronger, and because the win-loss ratio in their lost games was a lot better. Flash and Stats is a combo that will be very hard to stop. On the other hand, I still have strong doubts regarding Minds form, none of the KT Zergs impresses me at all (sorry, Hoejja), and if Stats manages to play against Bogus, I'm pretty sure Bogus will emerge victorious. Bogus is 4-0 vs. Stats, all of them in the last year. In addition, the KT coach hasn't been very good at getting good lineups for his team for most of the season, so the advantage isn't overwhelming. On the STX side, I have this weird feeling of Shuttle potentially taking a game off Flash and Modesty and Calm winning ZvZ-s, but these are not really suitable to be included in any serious predictions. I'd love to give the first "STX wins" prediction, yet alas, this is not the day.
My prediction: KT Rolster 3-2 STX SouL
CJ Entus and SK Telecom T1. Just mentioning this game is going to send Proleague fans in a frenzy. Most predictions about the playoffs I've seen see both teams in the finals or at least one of them winning the whole thing. The enormous fanbases of both teams are sure to make the Live Report thread a long one by BW standards, and any combination of players promises a good match. Take for example, Effort. Possibilities: Effort vs. Fantasy, Effort vs. Bisu, Effort vs. BeSt, Effort vs. Sun, even Effort vs. SoO might be really good. Both teams are good at sniping, both teams have their own style, both teams have ugly uniforms, and both teams can be certain to take this match very seriously. If your friend has ever expressed the faintest desire to watch BW, you should make him watch this. I don't care if it's New Year's Eve, This promises to be very, very good BW of the highest level.
As for the prediction, I'm seriously stumped. CJ does choke in these high profile games from time to time, yet SKT has some bad momentum. This wouldn't be an upset 3-0 either way, but I predict a slight CJ victory because of the marvelous performance they've shown so far. On the other hand, this might be as high as CJ soars...
My prediction: CJ Entus 3-2 SK Telecom T1
I mentioned earlier that Woongjin is very good at beating Terran, and that ACE has some great Terran players, which should be part of their main lineup every game. I also mentioned that ACE does not make good use of those Terrans in most of those games. Should ACE go Terran heavy or not? Doesn't really matter, because Woongjin *should* be better player per player. I would have a lot more confidence in predicting a Woongjin 3-1 if ACE didn't pull that Christmas miracle, but basing a prediction off one victory would be giving the last place team too much credit in my cynical opinion.
Sorry ACE,
My prediction: Air Force ACE 1-3 Woongjin Stars
I'll make a separate recommendation for this game. KT vs. KHAN promises to be pretty good, with a decent chance of Jangbi or Stork vs. Flash. For lovers of TvP, it doesn't get much better than this. Any match featuring Stats is pretty likely to be good as well. Predicting an outcome depends a lot on KT vs. STX though. If KT lose to STX, they will definitely lose to KHAN. If they win, the match should be a lot closer. Since it's likely they'll win, this match would be Game of the Week if it didn't feature CJ vs. SKT, so do yourself a favor and watch it.
My Prediction: KT Rolster 2-3 Samsung KHAN
Another match that depends strongly on the outcome of STX vs. KT. If STX beat KT, it wouldn't be a far stretch to say that they'd be able to beat Team 8. I'd love to see a Last vs. Jaedong rematch, a Sea vs. Shuttle, a Calm vs. Tyson, a Baby vs. Bogus, and a hyvaa vs. Jaehoon, but if STX lose to KT, I can't help but think that they'd roll over and die in the last game of the round. So, based on my earlier prediction -
My prediction: STX SouL 1-3 Team 8
Game of the Week: CJ Entus vs. SK Telecom T1. Every game should be good. I know what I'll be watching on New Year's Eve.
Game of the Week 2: KT Rolster vs. Samsung KHAN. Two TBLS members, Jangbi, the resurging dragon, Stats, the neo-Dragon, RorO, the slayer of Antiteams, Hoejja, the God-Zerg. Awesome. Watch it!
And to add more content to this post, here's a poll. People still like polls, right? Vote for the team which will get the next fanfic written about it!
Poll: Which team will the next Fanfic be about?Team 8 (24) 53% Samsung KHAN (8) 18% CJ Entus (5) 11% Air Force ACE (4) 9% STX SouL (2) 4% Woongjin Stars (2) 4% 45 total votes Your vote: Which team will the next Fanfic be about? (Vote): Air Force ACE
(Vote): CJ Entus
(Vote): Samsung KHAN
(Vote): STX SouL
(Vote): Team 8
(Vote): Woongjin Stars
Thanks to Simplistik for the team jerseys, to someone for the Prediction Progress table and to the PL team for taking me into their elitist circle of TL high society. Also, thank you to everyone who offered me moral support, and a Merry Holiday to all of you!
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