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Cowpieguy
United States97 Posts
On July 29 2012 10:26 dAPhREAk wrote: poor man's tax I don't think all poor people are stupid. My brother says the lottery is actually the stupid people tax. Even if you win, you spend it all and end up with less money than you started with. | ||
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dAPhREAk
Nauru12397 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:27 Cowpieguy wrote: I don't think all poor people are stupid. My brother says the lottery is actually the stupid people tax. Even if you win, you spend it all and end up with less money than you started with. i dont think all poor people are stupid either. we are in agreement!! i dont agree with your second statement though, so that was a short-lasting agreement..... | ||
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UniversalSnip
9871 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:27 sc4k wrote: I've been meaning to make a post about this. I really hate how idiotic people say that the lottery is a tax on stupidity etc. They are just triumphantly parroting out something they have heard an 'intellectual' say. It's simply a logical calculation: a) what does one dollar a day mean to you, b) what does the incredibly small chance of a 20+ million dollars lump sum mean to you. If a) < b), the lottery is worth playing. To think that people can't grasp this incredibly simple calculation boggles the mind. You can run a simple thought experiment to realise that lotteries are not per se futile and pointless. If there were a lottery that cost nothing to enter and one second of effort to enter, with a 1/10 chance of winning 1 billion dollars...you would be a clinical retard not to enter. Increase the chances to 1/100,000. Increase the price to 1 cent entry. It is hardly a gratuitous waste of money to enter even if the chances of you winning are incredibly remote. Just increase the odds and the price until you find your limit. Some people have a limit that's very low, others very high. It does not make them idiots automatically. Granted there are probably plenty of idiots who play the lottery but there are also plenty of idiots who play starcraft 2, doesn't make all sc2 players idiots. So you're saying it's worth it if it's worth it? That's seriously all you said, if the EV is high enough it's good! If you want some more sophisticated arguments in favor of buying lottery tickets I had an interesting PM conversation with the poster "bmn", you should poke him as he had some cool things to say about this. | ||
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ShadeR
Australia7535 Posts
On July 29 2012 09:15 FlaShFTW wrote: common sense can make you smarter than stupid people. its that easy  'Common sense' isn't so common. =P | ||
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KING CHARLIE :D
United States447 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:27 sc4k wrote: I've been meaning to make a post about this. I really hate how idiotic people say that the lottery is a tax on stupidity etc. They are just triumphantly parroting out something they have heard an 'intellectual' say. It's simply a logical calculation: a) what does one dollar a day mean to you, b) what does the incredibly small chance of a 20+ million dollars lump sum mean to you. If a) < b), the lottery is worth playing. To think that people can't grasp this incredibly simple calculation boggles the mind. You can run a simple thought experiment to realise that lotteries are not per se futile and pointless. If there were a lottery that cost nothing to enter and one second of effort to enter, with a 1/10 chance of winning 1 billion dollars...you would be a clinical retard not to enter. Increase the chances to 1/100,000. Increase the price to 1 cent entry. It is hardly a gratuitous waste of money to enter even if the chances of you winning are incredibly remote. Just increase the odds and the price until you find your limit. Some people have a limit that's very low, others very high. It does not make them idiots automatically. Granted there are probably plenty of idiots who play the lottery but there are also plenty of idiots who play starcraft 2, doesn't make all sc2 players idiots. I think you make a really solid point, and I guess it would be one that makes me feel "wrong" if the joke was: What has 5 balls and only rapes stupid people. Really the concept that causes so many stupid people to play the lottery and the one that I take issue with is the message that it sends. Instead of working my ass off and becoming proficient at something that I can transmute into money, I'm going to play ridiculous odds and delude myself into thinking i'll be the lucky one. They have such low regard for their own capabilities that they put it in the hands of a 10 million sided die. They aren't stupid because they play the lottery...They're stupid, and that's why they play the lottery. | ||
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r.Evo
Germany14080 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:27 sc4k wrote: I've been meaning to make a post about this. I really hate how idiotic people say that the lottery is a tax on stupidity etc. They are just triumphantly parroting out something they have heard an 'intellectual' say. It's simply a logical calculation: a) what does one dollar a day mean to you, b) what does the incredibly small chance of a 20+ million dollars lump sum mean to you. If a) < b), the lottery is worth playing. To think that people can't grasp this incredibly simple calculation boggles the mind. You can run a simple thought experiment to realise that lotteries are not per se futile and pointless. If there were a lottery that cost nothing to enter and one second of effort to enter, with a 1/10 chance of winning 1 billion dollars...you would be a clinical retard not to enter. Increase the chances to 1/100,000. Increase the price to 1 cent entry. It is hardly a gratuitous waste of money to enter even if the chances of you winning are incredibly remote. Just increase the odds and the price until you find your limit. Some people have a limit that's very low, others very high. It does not make them idiots automatically. Granted there are probably plenty of idiots who play the lottery but there are also plenty of idiots who play starcraft 2, doesn't make all sc2 players idiots. That's pretty much the only argument that can be made at all about lotteries being a good thing. However, even though one dollar a day doesn't seem like much I'd rather put them on a bank account and do something nice with the ~20000$ I managed to gather over 50 years, even assuming rather shitty interest rates. Instead I could buy lottery tickets and get ~9000$ back for the 20k I spent over 50 years on average. Any and all lotteries are -EV, that's the whole point of them. Considering the negative EV combined with the atrocious odds you are presented with there are way better ways to spend a $ per day and even make it profitable. | ||
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3FFA
United States3931 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Telcontar
United Kingdom16710 Posts
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Aerisky
United States12129 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:33 UniversalSnip wrote: So you're saying it's worth it if it's worth it? That's seriously all you said, if the EV is high enough it's good! If you want some more sophisticated arguments in favor of buying lottery tickets I had an interesting PM conversation with the poster "bmn", you should poke him as he had some cool things to say about this. Yeah...if it's worth it then it's definitely worth it beyond the shadow of a doubt! Kwark would be disappointed. And in general the money you put into the lottery you are never getting back with 5-sigma certainty, or something even higher than that....for all intents and purposes it's just a waste of money. | ||
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TheKwas
Iceland372 Posts
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Turbovolver
Australia2399 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:27 sc4k wrote: I've been meaning to make a post about this. I really hate how idiotic people say that the lottery is a tax on stupidity etc. They are just triumphantly parroting out something they have heard an 'intellectual' say. It's simply a logical calculation: a) what does one dollar a day mean to you, b) what does the incredibly small chance of a 20+ million dollars lump sum mean to you. If a) < b), the lottery is worth playing. To think that people can't grasp this incredibly simple calculation boggles the mind. You can run a simple thought experiment to realise that lotteries are not per se futile and pointless. If there were a lottery that cost nothing to enter and one second of effort to enter, with a 1/10 chance of winning 1 billion dollars...you would be a clinical retard not to enter. Increase the chances to 1/100,000. Increase the price to 1 cent entry. It is hardly a gratuitous waste of money to enter even if the chances of you winning are incredibly remote. Just increase the odds and the price until you find your limit. Some people have a limit that's very low, others very high. It does not make them idiots automatically. Granted there are probably plenty of idiots who play the lottery but there are also plenty of idiots who play starcraft 2, doesn't make all sc2 players idiots. Yep, if you follow that logic blindly then insurance is also a tax on stupidity. Which it clearly isn't, it's more like a "necessary evil". | ||
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solidbebe
Netherlands4921 Posts
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Aerisky
United States12129 Posts
On July 29 2012 20:27 solidbebe wrote: What we spend on tickets annually is usually what we make back with small prizes, so why not right. (i guess this lottery isnt the same as what you're talking about) Oh, I think I know what you're talking about. Those are actually pretty fun, and the fundraiser-type mini-giveaways I've always thought were pretty fun. There's a pretty good chance you'll get something (depending on the type) and it's really cheap too! | ||
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theBALLS
Singapore2935 Posts
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KING CHARLIE :D
United States447 Posts
On July 29 2012 21:25 theBALLS wrote: I think your blogs are interesting, but I don't like how they're so reliant on a catchy title. The greatest artists consistently throughout history have always been the most talented marketers. If they are interesting, how are they reliant on the title? Or are you joking around and i'm over analyzing this. Sometimes I think I am trying to sell spaceheaters to people in Kenya with this blog on this specific obscure subforum. | ||
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EtherealDeath
United States8366 Posts
On July 29 2012 10:00 KING CHARLIE :D wrote: This joke hits home for me because just this morning I was checking my e-mail, and my long lost uncle who I didn't even know existed sent me a message giving me the news that he had just won the Lottery of Nigeria!! Apparently, he vowed to my father that he would split his winnings with me. What a virtuous guy to follow through with it. So, basically I sent him my bank account routing number and SSN and he will send me half of $1000000 by the end of the week! I'm SO EXCITED!!! Oh, it's not a joke (I think), apparently it's an actual lottery that my parents entered for the fun of it (and have many times in the past). Apparently they missed the small text at the bottom about needing to be a US citizen to claim the prize... but I didn't really ask about it, was just a funny thing to me. Of course from my experience they are really gullible so who knows. | ||
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KING CHARLIE :D
United States447 Posts
On July 29 2012 21:53 EtherealDeath wrote: Oh, it's not a joke (I think), apparently it's an actual lottery that my parents entered for the fun of it (and have many times in the past). Apparently they missed the small text at the bottom about needing to be a US citizen to claim the prize... but I didn't really ask about it, was just a funny thing to me. Of course from my experience they are really gullible so who knows. That's a lot of money...they didn't know any US citizens that could cash it out and take a percentage? | ||
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FractalsOnFire
Australia1756 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:27 sc4k wrote: I've been meaning to make a post about this. I really hate how idiotic people say that the lottery is a tax on stupidity etc. They are just triumphantly parroting out something they have heard an 'intellectual' say. It's simply a logical calculation: a) what does one dollar a day mean to you, b) what does the incredibly small chance of a 20+ million dollars lump sum mean to you. If a) < b), the lottery is worth playing. To think that people can't grasp this incredibly simple calculation boggles the mind. You can run a simple thought experiment to realise that lotteries are not per se futile and pointless. If there were a lottery that cost nothing to enter and one second of effort to enter, with a 1/10 chance of winning 1 billion dollars...you would be a clinical retard not to enter. Increase the chances to 1/100,000. Increase the price to 1 cent entry. It is hardly a gratuitous waste of money to enter even if the chances of you winning are incredibly remote. Just increase the odds and the price until you find your limit. Some people have a limit that's very low, others very high. It does not make them idiots automatically. Granted there are probably plenty of idiots who play the lottery but there are also plenty of idiots who play starcraft 2, doesn't make all sc2 players idiots. You're right in that the extra value from the chance of winning lotto is worth more than the actual expected value to some people (intermittent rewards anyone?). However you ignore the fact that the big TV lotteries you see around are so remote that it really isn't worth it. Odds on a typical Australian lottery (45 C 6) * 3 million (basic prize pool) is so low its not worth even considering on a purely monetary basis. I guess some people might find an extra $10 'worth it'. Your examples in your paragraph are extremely +EV just in pure monetary value. If everyone had a basic understanding of probabilities, would they still buy lotto? Then it really does come down to 'how much is the chance of winning lotto is worth to you' as opposed to your actual odds. Maybe all they want is that claim to fame of 'i won at lotto' or get on the news for their big win. For me i probably wouldn't ever buy it, rather play poker. At least i have a decent chance. | ||
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Mstring
Australia510 Posts
On July 29 2012 11:27 sc4k wrote: I've been meaning to make a post about this. I really hate how idiotic people say that the lottery is a tax on stupidity etc. They are just triumphantly parroting out something they have heard an 'intellectual' say. It's simply a logical calculation: a) what does one dollar a day mean to you, b) what does the incredibly small chance of a 20+ million dollars lump sum mean to you. If a) < b), the lottery is worth playing. To think that people can't grasp this incredibly simple calculation boggles the mind. You can run a simple thought experiment to realise that lotteries are not per se futile and pointless. If there were a lottery that cost nothing to enter and one second of effort to enter, with a 1/10 chance of winning 1 billion dollars...you would be a clinical retard not to enter. Increase the chances to 1/100,000. Increase the price to 1 cent entry. It is hardly a gratuitous waste of money to enter even if the chances of you winning are incredibly remote. Just increase the odds and the price until you find your limit. Some people have a limit that's very low, others very high. It does not make them idiots automatically. Granted there are probably plenty of idiots who play the lottery but there are also plenty of idiots who play starcraft 2, doesn't make all sc2 players idiots. Your mind is boggled because life isn't a game of numbers XD The "logical calculation" runs into this simple problem: (b) is impossible to "calculate". Everyone knows what $1 means; its power to create; they know what it can do purely through real experience. How can you know what $20,000,000+ will bring to your life? Truth is, you simply can't until it actually happens. You can imagine it, but that's just a mental fabrication. Thinking that the hypothetical feelings you conjure up in your mind correspond to the real world outcome of such an event is delusional. I think that spending even $1 a day on such a delusion is pretty stupid but I can understand why people do it:-- it's just another manifestation of the quest for money in the hopes of filling the void. I wouldn't pay the 1cent in your above example. If you're ever 'making money' without providing value to someone in exchange, then someone somewhere is getting fucked over in some way or another. I wonder how many lottery winners truly end up happier and more fulfilled as a result of their prize... | ||
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