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Here are the standings at the end of round 5 of the current Proleague season:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/f6Omb.png)
I have things to say about these teams!
Flying high:
These teams have dedicated coaching staffs and actively acquire players. They also happen to be #1-3 in the standings.
SKT - Although Bisu and Fantasy are obviously dominant players, SKT is not very deep past them. Best can either dominate or slump, Ssak and Sun are still developing, and their zerg players are unreliable.
KT - Flash is Flash, Stats is solid, Crazy-Hydra is an x-factor, everyone after that is unreliable. This is a team that can beat the best or lose to the worst without either outcome seeming unusual.
CJ - The scariest roster in the league is best explained in terms of Elo. The one player they have in the top 9 is Hydra (4) is not as dominant as that position suggests, but they have 5 players in the top 15 - Horang2 (10), Movie (11), Leta (14), and Snow (15). To compare, SKT goes Bisu (2), Fantasy (5), Best (22) and KT goes Flash (1), Stats (17), Action (25).
CJ is set up to grind their way to victory through their depth but can absolutely dominate if they get good lineups (about which they care a lot - Horang2 wants P, Leta wants not-P, Skyhigh wants T) or are able to take out your ace player. My pick to win it all this season, after which they get Effort back o.O
Ready to bloom:
Stars - When I began following Proleague, (Hanbit) Stars was competing with eSTRO and ACE for the title of "best bottom feeder", but they've been slowly improving ever since Woongjin sponsored them. Woongjin decided they wanted a successful team and upgraded the coaching staff, players' living conditions, and spending on players. They're a clear #4 in the standings - Zero + Soulkey + Light is a strong combination - but with a supporting cast of free, Really and Flying I don't think they're going to make any noise in the playoffs this year. This is a team that is one solid player away from being a contender; I can't help but feel bad for free but hopeful for Guemchi.
ACE is special:
ACE - It makes sense that they'd improve over time because of the nature of their team (imagine if they got Flash and JD at the same time(!)), but it boggles my mind how successful they are right now given how bad they were for so long. They are still usually the underdog, but now it's less of an upset when they win matches.
The rest:
If the first four teams are the haves, these are the have-nots. How is your team going to win a championship if you let another team take Light away from you or if Stork wants to switch teams because you cut his pay? Which players are going to perform better, the ones on teams with an average of 3.25 coaches or 1.4 coaches?* It's still possible to win a championship under these conditions, but you're clearly not trying as hard as some of the other sponsors.
MBC - Sea is good, Hyun, Jaehoon, and Tyson are decent, and Saint... plays starcraft. MBC is in the process of rebuilding - they've given playtime to 6 different players who currently combine for 17 televised games - but MBC just doesn't have a strong enough core to accomplish anything.
KHAN - Splitting KHAN players who have played a game recently by veteran-ness looks like this Stork, great, Jangbi, Juni // Brave, Reality, Turn, Sharp, Byul, Grape. KHAN has to hope that some of those newer players develop, because otherwise this team isn't accomplishing much even if Stork, great, and Jangbi simultaneously play well. The good news is we've seen some flashes of greatness ...good-ness? in those players, but only time will tell.
Oz - Jaedong can't do it alone ...solo! Alone is Oz's best bet to develop, but supposing he does JD, Alone, Killer, Hiya, and Anytime isn't a championship winning lineup. Oz has to hope that they can develop some new players past Killer's level... poor JD 
STX - STX has always made up for their lack of tip-top players by having an absurdly large number of roleplayers, but when your top players both slump, the wheels come off. Last season STX was a team built to make the playoffs, but not achieve much once they're there - Kal and Calm can win games reliably but when you're relying on roleplayers to do the rest against better players your luck is bound to run out eventually. However, with the development of Bogus as a strong player (I'm just as confused as you), this weakness would be a lot smaller if Kal and Calm returned to form. But until they do, STX is the worst team in the league.
FOX - With a roster of [mediocre on average but extremely good at peak] players (Mind, Baby, Shine, and Midas), WeMade is the most volatile team in the league. Pure is still disappointing, but P7GAB is 4-1? Roro is still Roro and Sacsri and herO[jOin] seem unlikely to surpass him. FOX has the biggest upset potential in the playoffs and would be my darkhorse to win it all if they can get hot, but if they keep playing like they're playing now they won't even make the playoffs.
*admittedly, TLPD is not a great source for these numbers
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I dont think Stats is very solid atm. He's kinda shaky it feels like.
However I totally agree on CJ...I said it in the most recent interview by them...CJ is getting frightening. The stars have finally aligned or something. It took them a little bit to get into their groove but...hell, Hydra, Snow, Horang2, Movie, Leta...it's like a team full of Ace players. Maybe not the most reliable Aces, but I could see all five of them in an Ace match situation. Effort is being hyped to all hell and as a (pre-OSL, mind you. CJ Zerg forever<3) fan, I'm really hoping to not get let down, and am really excited to see what he brings to the field next season.
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konadora
Singapore66364 Posts
the reason why CJ has gotten scary is because of their Protoss lineup.
Movie + Horang2 + Snow.
Movie's vZ and Snow's vT and Horang2's vP (AND his insane macro) and the three of them learning from each other = crazehhhh.
SKT will still win this season though.
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I sort of disagree with your analysis of Stars, they have 2 very strong zergs (soulkey and Zero) 2 very strong terrans (really and light and 2 quite strong protoss (Guemchi and Flying) Free is a monster when he's playing his best, and Zero is truly a strong ace when he's at the top of his game. There problem doesn't lie in acquiring another strong player, but rather in consistency.
If Zero can keep it together than I could very well see them taking the finals. If guemchi, flying, really, light, and soulkey can pull everything together and beat the non-amazing players the other teams are forced to field than they will potentially make it through the finals without playing an ace match. Stars are a team with GREAT potential to go 4-1 and 4-2. In an ace match situation, I think their wide variety of strong players makes them scary. They could very well field any of the previously mentioned players making it really hard mentally for other team's aces to prepare.
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I agree with d(O.o)a. Woongjin team has great names on paper. Sadly, they're not producing results worthy of their lineup.
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On June 05 2011 17:16 konadora wrote:
the reason why CJ has gotten scary is because of their Protoss lineup.
Movie + Horang2 + Snow.
Movie's vZ and Snow's vT and Horang2's vP (AND his insane macro) and the three of them learning from each other = crazehhhh.
SKT will still win this season though.
they're all capable of playing their 'weaker' matchups quite well too
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10387 Posts
On June 05 2011 17:20 d(O.o)a wrote:
I sort of disagree with your analysis of Stars, they have 2 very strong zergs (soulkey and Zero) 2 very strong terrans (really and light and 2 quite strong protoss (Guemchi and Flying) Free is a monster when he's playing his best, and Zero is truly a strong ace when he's at the top of his game. There problem doesn't lie in acquiring another strong player, but rather in consistency.
If Zero can keep it together than I could very well see them taking the finals. If guemchi, flying, really, light, and soulkey can pull everything together and beat the non-amazing players the other teams are forced to field than they will potentially make it through the finals without playing an ace match. Stars are a team with GREAT potential to go 4-1 and 4-2. In an ace match situation, I think their wide variety of strong players makes them scary. They could very well field any of the previously mentioned players making it really hard mentally for other team's aces to prepare.
since when did Flying/Guemchi become good?
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On June 05 2011 17:52 ArvickHero wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2011 17:20 d(O.o)a wrote:
I sort of disagree with your analysis of Stars, they have 2 very strong zergs (soulkey and Zero) 2 very strong terrans (really and light and 2 quite strong protoss (Guemchi and Flying) Free is a monster when he's playing his best, and Zero is truly a strong ace when he's at the top of his game. There problem doesn't lie in acquiring another strong player, but rather in consistency.
If Zero can keep it together than I could very well see them taking the finals. If guemchi, flying, really, light, and soulkey can pull everything together and beat the non-amazing players the other teams are forced to field than they will potentially make it through the finals without playing an ace match. Stars are a team with GREAT potential to go 4-1 and 4-2. In an ace match situation, I think their wide variety of strong players makes them scary. They could very well field any of the previously mentioned players making it really hard mentally for other team's aces to prepare. since when did Flying/Guemchi become good?
I get the impression you didn't read the whole thing, I said they're pretty decent and that they just need to be more consistent.
They're by no means amazing players, but they've both shown they can put out good games against great players. I was simply implying they're good enough to beat the lower players on other teams. They're putting out sub-optimal results at the moment but if they can pull themselves together than they're far better than the rookies a lot of other teams are forced to field.
Stars are a team that will beat teams which rely on lucky wins from not very good players so their aces can win the series (KTFlash, Jaedong Oz, MBSea) while losing to deeper teams like CJ. Although Stars truly have 4 Solid aces and 7 aces if their protoss perform at the levels they've shown they can.
Besides even if guemchi/flying/Free can't bring their A-Game than they can serve as fodder to other team's aces while in-form Really, Light, Zero and Soulkey can easily take 4 games.
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On June 05 2011 17:16 konadora wrote:
SKT will still win this season though.
They definitely have the best shot of stopping CJ - it is not hard to imagine 3 wins coming from Bisu, fantasy, [someone else] followed by Bisu/fantasy winning the ace match.
On June 05 2011 17:20 d(O.o)a wrote:
I sort of disagree with your analysis of Stars, they have 2 very strong zergs (soulkey and Zero) 2 very strong terrans (really and light and 2 quite strong protoss (Guemchi and Flying) Free is a monster when he's playing his best, and Zero is truly a strong ace when he's at the top of his game. There problem doesn't lie in acquiring another strong player, but rather in consistency.
The biggest problem Stars has with consistency is the consistency with which Free and Really are mediocre. Free used to be a monster but those days appear to be gone - the last time he made TL's power rank was September 2010. Really's peak Elo might places him in between Zero and Soulkey's current Elo, but right now he's a career 46.64% winrate player ranked 44th by Elo. If Guemchi and Flying are strong Protoss' they have yet to display it.
If Zero can keep it together than I could very well see them taking the finals. If guemchi, flying, really, light, and soulkey can pull everything together and beat the non-amazing players the other teams are forced to field than they will potentially make it through the finals without playing an ace match. Stars are a team with GREAT potential to go 4-1 and 4-2. In an ace match situation, I think their wide variety of strong players makes them scary. They could very well field any of the previously mentioned players making it really hard mentally for other team's aces to prepare.
It is nearly tautological that there are a bunch of teams that could easily take the finals if all of their players simultaneously pulled it together and/or they get an ideal set of matchups. But the likeliest outcome is that no team does is able to do that, and under those conditions I don't like their current lineup's odds against SKT or CJ.
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konadora
Singapore66364 Posts
On June 06 2011 04:38 Crunchums wrote:They definitely have the best shot of stopping CJ - it is not hard to imagine 3 wins coming from Bisu, fantasy, [someone else] followed by Bisu/fantasy winning the ace match.
Bisu definitely needs to step up his PvP though, i can see him losing to horang2 and/or snow :/
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Seriously, CJ has one of the deepest lineups. They are doing great now, but they'll have at least two good players for each race when EffOrt returns.
Hydra + Effort (Z)
Leta + Skyhigh (T)
Horang2 + Snow + Movie (P).
It's almost unfair.
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I'm just glad CJ's players have been doing so well. This looks like their year! Hopefully none of them choke in the playoffs though...
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EPT
