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NASL Betting

Blogs > rANDY
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1 2 Next All
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 11 2011 18:12 GMT
#1
Lots of new bets coming out over the last few days with NASL and Dreamhack starting soon, and due to this I have lots of bets on, here are the lines still avaliable at the moment...

NASL Days 3 and 4, 1 and 2 no longer avaliable
[image loading]

Dreamhack
[image loading]

Dreamhack to win
[image loading]

and the long list of my bets still outstanding o_o


TSL3 - Sen vs BoxeR - 9 units on Sen @ 1.926

TSL3 - HasuObs vs MorroW - 6 units on MorroW @ 2.350

TSL3 - Naniwa vs GoOdy - 7 units on Naniwa (-1.5) @ 1.621

TSL3 - CrunCher vs Mondragon - CrunCher (-1.5) @ 1.990 (regret this bet now, was made a while ago on 05/04/11)



NASL - Moon vs Grubby - 7 units on Grubby @ 5.010

NASL - Moon vs Grubby - 27.3 units on Moon @ 1.262

NASL - Vibe vs TLO - 7 units on Vibe @ 3.520

NASL - Artosis vs Sheth - 20 units on Artosis @ 8.880

NASL - Artisos vs Sheth - 100 units on Sheth @ 1.333

NASL - RainbOw vs MorroW - 8 units on MorroW @ 1.926

NASL - qxc vs MoMaN - 8 units on qxc (-1.5) @ 1.625

NASL - July vs White-Ra - 5 units on July @ 1.565

NASL - Naniwa vs Strelok - 9 units on Naniwa (-1.5) @ 2.080

NASL - Squirtle vs Axslav - 5 units on Squirtle @ 1.952

NASL - mOOnGLaDe vs SLush - 4 units on SLush @ 2.300

NASL - Dde vs NaDa - 2 units on Dde @ 4.510

NASL - Dde vs NaDa - 3 units on Dde (+1.5) @ 2.580

NASL - DarkForce vs CrunCher - 4 units on DarkForce @ 1.952

NASL - KawaiiRice vs Haypro - 4 units on Kawaii @ 2.610

NASL - Ret vs Ace - 9 units on Ace @ 1.649

NASL - BratOK vs MC - 8 units on MC @ 1.407



DH - IdrA vs TLO - 4 units on IdrA (-1.5) @ 2.540

DH - MC vs MorroW - 7 units on MC (-1.5) @ 1.787



and because of all these I only have 50 units left to use for my betting on other sports until these are played x.x

Got two crossbooks, one on Moon vs Grubby for a tiny profit whoever wins, and another one on Artosis/Sheth where I'm getting a big profit whoever wins (bigger for Artosis, veggie protoss power gogo)

The odds on winner of Dreamhack are pretty funny, basically MC evens bet and the rest far away. The thing that shocked me most is MC started at 2.000 and has gone down to 1.909 so he's getting bets to win the tourney even at that tiny price, making MC a favourite vs the rest combined.

Can't wait for NASL to start, though it may kill my playing "career", I struggle to keep up with all the viewing content already with a full time job.

Good luck with your bets, post what you have

*****
drag_
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
England425 Posts
April 11 2011 18:18 GMT
#2
I find your blogs really interesting, and this might be too personal question, but how much is 1 unit for you? Or perhaps more generally are you betting a lot of money on these games or is it more of a hobby on the side? No need to answer if you feel it's too personal or whatever.
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 11 2011 18:49 GMT
#3
It's not what I would consider a lot of money, but the size of what unit will increase as my bankroll does. It's more of a hobby than an income for me, I have a job and have made more from playing SC2 than betting on it, but I enjoy it a lot.

Personally, beating the bookmakers is the game, the money is just there for keeping score
Chill
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
Calgary25980 Posts
April 11 2011 18:53 GMT
#4
I always love these blogs, but I couldn't tell you until I passed 20k!
Moderator
arcfyr
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada121 Posts
April 11 2011 18:59 GMT
#5
I decided to try my hand at betting - was doing okay, generally scoring better than par, until last weekend, where I lost every single one. (MKP +1.5, KT Rolster, Tyler, qxc)

Grrr.

You did a good job landing Grubby when you did - I think he'll end up doing better than expected. Have a few units on Grubby +1.5 and hoping that pans out.
alexhard
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden317 Posts
April 11 2011 19:32 GMT
#6
Hey rANDY, love these posts. Did you go through with betting against 4-2 in mvp v mkp? Very sorry for you if you did...

If you don't mind me asking, how much are your units as a % of your bankroll? Personally I use 1% units, never go above 10 units for any single bet, mostly bet conservatively. Still doing pretty awesome though, I'm up 57 units after a few weeks of sc2 betting.

Anyways, our positions are pretty similar for the upcoming days. I've got:

TSL:

Sen v Boxer: 2 units on Sen @ 1.556 (how did you get 1.926, wow...)

Hasuobs v Morrow: 1.5 units on Hasuobs @ 1.633

Naniwa v Goody: 1 unit on Goody +1.5 @ 2.37



NASL:

Vibe v TLO: 3 units on Vibe +1.5 @ 2.04
3 units on Vibe @ 3.5

Fenix v Kiwikaki: 2 units on Kiwikaki @ 1.324

July v White-ra: 2 units on white-ra +1.5 @ 1.654
1 unit on White-ra @ 2.81

QXC v Moman: 1 unit on Moman +1.5 @ 2.36

Artosis v Sheth: 1.5 units on Sheth @ 1.333

Naniwa v Strelok: 4 units on Naniwa @ 1.452

KawaiiRice v Haypro: 2 units on Kawaii @ 2.5

Dde v Nada: 1 unit on Dde +1.5 @ 2.36
1 unit on Dde @ 4.05

Goody v Catz: 2 units on Goody @ 1.37

Stalife v Machine: 5 units on Stalife @ 2.4

BratOK v MC: 1 unit on MC @ 1.407



Dreamhack:

MC v Morrow: 1 unit on MC -1.5 @ 1.787

Idra v TL: 1 unit on Idra -1.5 @ 2.54
2 units on Idra @ 1.571

Huk v Sjow: 2 units on Huk @ 1.704

Jinro v White-ra: 2 units on White-ra @ 2.4

rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 11 2011 19:41 GMT
#7
Fortunately I only bet on Mvp to win, as my opinion of Mvp's chances to win a single game fell in that boundary that made it a bad bet

For me 1 unit = 0.3% at the moment

I got those odds on sen as soon as they went online :D

Going to crossbook your bet on White-ra/Jinro?
alexhard
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden317 Posts
April 11 2011 19:51 GMT
#8
I don't know, thinking about it. I feel the bet has ample +EV and the odds haven't changed enough yet. Lots of factors going against Jinro in that matchup right now, I feel White-Ra should be the favourite.
arcfyr
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada121 Posts
April 11 2011 20:23 GMT
#9
Is there any particular time of day the lines tend to be posted? I check a few times, throughout the day, but I haven't been able to catch anything. Or maybe I just need to refresh a little bit more often!
Gatsbi
Profile Joined April 2010
United States1134 Posts
April 11 2011 20:28 GMT
#10
I really really really wish I could do this. Stupid US online gambling laws... sigh.
"IF WHAT YOU DO NOT KNOW IS MORE THAN WHAT YOU HAVE KNOWN. THEN YOU HAVE NOT KNOWN ANYTHINIG YET." - Rev Kojo Smith
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 11 2011 20:29 GMT
#11
From what I've noticed the new NASL lines for each day get posted around 4-5pm CET (I think thats 11am-12pm EST) 6 days before the games are played, and are taken down around the same time 3 days before the games are played.
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 11 2011 21:12 GMT
#12
also 10 units on Oklahoma City Thunder to win tonight @ 1.444 at pinnacle in tonights NBA :D
THM
Profile Joined November 2010
Bulgaria1131 Posts
April 11 2011 22:37 GMT
#13
I'd say it here again but pretty ridiculous starting odds on Artosis, also on Grubby... it's PvZ after all, Grubby is no scrub and Moon isn't that great himself.

My bets for now are

Huk @1.96
White ra @1.94
Slush @ 2.45
Kawaii @ 2.61
Naniwa @1.42
Deleted User 3420
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
24492 Posts
April 11 2011 22:58 GMT
#14
how does the "handicap" work?
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
April 11 2011 23:02 GMT
#15
eg

in a bo3 u have niniwa (-1.5) you are betting on naniwa to win 2-0, if he wins 2-1 you lose the bet

if it was a bo5 you are betting him to win 3-0 or 3-1

+1.5 is the opposite, for example dde (+1.5), if he gets 2-0, 2-1, 1-2, you win the bet. you only lose for 0-2
Adebisi
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Canada1637 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-11 23:04:49
April 11 2011 23:03 GMT
#16
I'd definitely recommend Axslav over Squirtle with those odds, PvP is anyone's game, Axslav did great against Kiwi in the GCPL individual, and latency is imo the biggest deal in PvP, and I think the ST guys have the least experience with it so far.
alexhard
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden317 Posts
April 11 2011 23:16 GMT
#17
THM if you look at Moon's performance in IEM and Grubby's performance at MLG...I wouldn't take Grubby if he gave odds of 15. There's always the lag of course, but I doubt it'll have that big of an effect.
MaxField
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2386 Posts
April 11 2011 23:30 GMT
#18
This is def really interesting every time you post these. I am impressed each time i look at your bets.
"Zerg, so bad it loses to hydras" IdrA.
cyclone25
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Romania3344 Posts
April 12 2011 01:38 GMT
#19
On April 12 2011 05:28 Gatsbi wrote:
I really really really wish I could do this. Stupid US online gambling laws... sigh.


Ask a friend from EU or Canada to open an account for you.

I think real money betting adds a lot of entertainment value to eSports.

Good luck with your bets rANDY
THM
Profile Joined November 2010
Bulgaria1131 Posts
April 12 2011 08:23 GMT
#20
On April 12 2011 08:16 alexhard wrote:
THM if you look at Moon's performance in IEM and Grubby's performance at MLG...I wouldn't take Grubby if he gave odds of 15. There's always the lag of course, but I doubt it'll have that big of an effect.


Of course moon is the favorite, but I wouldn't say by so much. Moon is no MC/MVP. And the lag I feel is a pretty big issue, bigger than Jinro said it was ;]
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