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Active: 14710 users

Why foreigners did better in GSLWC then you might think.

Blogs > Sfydjklm
Post a Reply
Sfydjklm
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
United States9218 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-09 00:23:02
April 09 2011 00:22 GMT
#1
Notes of caution:
The numbers are (Z)just ripped off TLPD. I.E. Morrows numbers are taken including his Terran, the WC results themselves haven't been taken out of foreigners (P)Stats.
Koreans info is taken from korean SC2 TLPD.
Foreigner info is taken from International SC2 TLPD.
(Z)mOOnGLaDe, (P)HuK and (T)Jinro are considered Korean and hence disregarded.
There are probably mistakes in this.

+ Show Spoiler [ELO placement comparison] +


NationWar Results

(P)anypro 62nd > (Z)MorroW 67th
(P)anypro 62nd < (Z)Sen 58th
(P)MarineKing 6th < (Z)Sen 58th
(P)San 20th > (Z)Sen 58th
(P)San 20th < (P)TT1 93rd
(T)NaDa 13th < (P)TT1 93rd
(P)MC 2nd > (P)TT1 93rd
(P)MC 2nd < (P)White-Ra 75th
(Z)July 21st > (P)White-Ra 75th
(Z)July 21st < (Z)DIMAGA 88th
(T)MVP 3rd < (Z)DIMAGA 88th
(Z)NesTea 5th > (Z)DIMAGA 88th

Tournament Results

(P)San 20th > (P)White-Ra 75th
(Z)NesTea 5th < (Z)DIMAGA 88th
(P)MarineKing 6th > (Z)Sen 58th
(P)MC 2nd > (Z)MorroW 67th
(P)MarineKing 6th > (P)TT1 93rd
(P)San 20th > (Z)DIMAGA 88th

Korean favorites: W: 10 (Z)L: 7
Korean underdogs: W: 0 (Z)L: 1

Conclusion: Foreign database ELO makes no (Z)Sense.


+ Show Spoiler [ MU winrate comparison] +


NationWar:

(P)anypro [vZ: 56.25% 9-7] > (Z)MorroW [vP: 52.48% 74-67]
(P)anypro [vZ: 56.25% 9-7] < (Z)Sen [vP: 60% 30-20]
(P)MarineKing [vZ: 70% 21-9] < (Z)Sen [vT: 50% 20-20]
(P)San [vZ: 50% 3-3] > (Z)Sen [vP: 60% 30-20]
(P)San [vP 27.27% 3-8] < (P)TT1 [vP 48.89% 22-23]
(T)NaDa [vP 75% 6-2] < (P)TT1 [vT 53.66% 44-38]
(P)MC [vP 85% 17-3] > (P)TT1 [vP 48.89% 22-23]
(P)MC [vP 85% 17-3] < (P)White-Ra [vP 43.55% 27-35]
(Z)July [vP 50% 10-10] > (P)White-Ra [vZ 66.35% 69-35]
(Z)July [vZ 37.5% 3-5] < (Z)DIMAGA [vZ 65.79% 50-26]
(T)MVP [vZ 71.43% 15-6] < (Z)DIMAGA [vT 57.28% 118-88]
(Z)NesTea [vZ: 100% 10-0] > (Z)DIMAGA [vZ 65.79% 50-26]

Tournament:

(P)San [vP 27.27% 3-8] > (P)White-Ra [vP 43.55% 27-35]
(Z)NesTea [vZ: 100% 10-0] < (Z)DIMAGA [vZ 65.79% 50-26]
(P)MarineKing [vZ: 70% 21-9] > (Z)Sen [vT: 50% 20-20]
(P)MC [vZ 63.64% 7-4] > (Z)MorroW [vP: 52.48% 74-67]
(P)San [vZ: 50% 3-3] > (Z)DIMAGA [vP 53.79% 78-67]
(P)MarineKing [vP 56.25% 9-7] > (P)TT1 [vT 53.66% 44-38]

Korean favorites: W: 8 (Z)L: 5
Korean underdogs: W: 4 (Z)L: 3



Now that's all fine and dandy but the problem with it is that it displays overall results that are acquired over a number of patches, slumps and upswings. What is most indicative of ONE's skill in any particular match up is peak ELO, displaying player's ability to learn ONE particular match up.

+ Show Spoiler [ Peak ELO Per MU] +


NationWar Results

(P)anypro 5th(2094) > (Z)MorroW 9th(2141)
(P)anypro 5th(2094) < (Z)Sen 3rd(2171)
(P)MarineKing 2nd(2150) < (Z)Sen 28th(2065)
(P)San 14th(2022) > (Z)Sen 3rd(2171)
(P)San 17th(1968) < (P)TT1 33rd(2062)
(T)NaDa 11th(2079) < (P)TT1 11th(2175)
(P)MC 1st(2168) > (P)TT1 33rd(2062)
(P)MC 1st(2168) < (P)White-Ra 40th(2048)
(Z)July 8th(2053) > (P)White-Ra 7th(2207)
(Z)July 11th(2031) < (Z)DIMAGA No peak displayed, current elo @11th(2104)
(T)MVP 3rd < (Z)DIMAGA No peak displayed, current elo @7th(2144)
(Z)NesTea 1st(2168) > (Z)DIMAGA No peak displayed, current elo @11th(2104)

Tournament Results

(P)San 17th(1968) > (P)White-Ra 40th(2048)
(Z)NesTea 1st(2168) < (Z)DIMAGA No peak displayed, current elo @11th(2104)
(P)MarineKing 2nd(2150) > (Z)Sen 28th(2065)
(P)MC 6th(2071) > (Z)MorroW 8th(2141)
(P)MarineKing 9th(2098) > (P)TT1 11th(2175)
(P)San 14th(2022)> (Z)DIMAGA No peak displayed, current elo @31st(2061)

Korean favorites(by rank): W: 8 (Z)L: 5
Korean underdogs(by rank): W: 2 (Z)L: 1




twitter.com/therealdhalism | "Trying out Z = lots of losses vs inferior players until you figure out how to do it well (if it even works)."- Liquid'Tyler
Sfydjklm
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
United States9218 Posts
April 09 2011 00:24 GMT
#2
meant to say might think, but my subconsciousness doesnt compromise ^^
twitter.com/therealdhalism | "Trying out Z = lots of losses vs inferior players until you figure out how to do it well (if it even works)."- Liquid'Tyler
p4NDemik
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United States13896 Posts
April 09 2011 01:21 GMT
#3
For your first analysis I'm not sure I'd conclude that International TLPD Elo makes no sense, I'd conclude that comparing Elo rankings from two different databases isn't going to yield accurate results, and in general won't be worth the effort. The Elo ranking make sense within the context of that single database and that only.

Regardless its always fun to play with the numbers and see if they followed your expectations.
Moderator
Sfydjklm
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
United States9218 Posts
April 09 2011 01:49 GMT
#4
On April 09 2011 10:21 p4NDemik wrote:
For your first analysis I'm not sure I'd conclude that International TLPD Elo makes no sense, I'd conclude that comparing Elo rankings from two different databases isn't going to yield accurate results, and in general won't be worth the effort. The Elo ranking make sense within the context of that single database and that only.

Regardless its always fun to play with the numbers and see if they followed your expectations.

i was looking within database and dimaga @88th and white-ra @75th is O_O
twitter.com/therealdhalism | "Trying out Z = lots of losses vs inferior players until you figure out how to do it well (if it even works)."- Liquid'Tyler
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