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TSL3 Betting Tips Weekend 2

Blogs > rANDY
Post a Reply
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
March 26 2011 14:24 GMT
#1
Following on from my full analysis of the opening weekends matches and on SC2 betting in general, I was hoping to do something similar this week. However, unfortunately Pinnacle have took down the TSL3 bets around Tuesday so no more bets can be made now, I guess it was because some games were played around then and then didn't want any cheating going on. So as a note, try get your bets in early and I'll try get my previews on earlier in the week

Last weekends results:
+ Show Spoiler +
10 units @ 2.060 on Tyler > Strelok +10.6 units
4 units @ 2.760 on Fenix > Sen -4 units
8 units @ 1.183 on MC > Ciara +1.46 units
Total +8.06


The bets I did get to put on for this weekend are:

Mondragon vs ZeeRaX

I got ZeeRaX @ 2.360 early on, these odds dropped to 2.160 when the book closed. I've played ZeeRaX quite a few times and he is a very strong player. He doesnt play many tournaments, and due to this I think the bookies have underestimated him. He was a WC3 player for SK and has played a LOT of games, he is a solid strategical player who doesn't cheese much and will come into this match well practiced. Mondragon always does well in tournaments, but with a lack of practice and since its a ZvP, which seems currently a difficult matchup, I believe ZeeRaX will be too much for the SC1 legend,

NaDa vs TheLittleOne

My bet here is TLO @ 3.840. In my opinion NaDa has'nt done enough to justify being the huge favourite that these odds suggest. TLO's creative style is capable of beating all types of players, and we see NaDa says himself in his TL interview that TLO has a "genius style" and gives himself about a 50% chance. For this bet to break even I need TLO to win this matchup 26.04% of the time, and I feel he may not be a favourite, his chances are far better than that.

So to summarise my bets are...

7 units on ZeeRaX @ 2.360
8 units on TLO @ 3.840.

and my bets for tournament winners at the beginning are still alive, I still can't believe the odds I got for Tyler

2 units @ 141.680 on Tyler
4 units @ 5.480 on MC

Good luck to those that have any wagers on, a shame no more could be made in the last few days, I probably would have had another bet or two.

For anyone interested I won my two F1 qualifying bets this morning :D

Rosberg to out qualify Schumacher, 5 units @ 2.060
Kobayashi to out qualify Perez, 5 units @ 1.794

Post qualifying odds for tomorrows race have just come up on Pinnacle so I guess I'll update what extra bets I put on

Also got a tonne of football (soccer) bets on but too many to be bothered to post them


*****
gods_basement
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States305 Posts
March 26 2011 15:08 GMT
#2
141 to 1 on tyler? are you serious?
(TT~TT)
ReketSomething
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6012 Posts
March 26 2011 15:12 GMT
#3
On March 27 2011 00:08 gods_basement wrote:
141 to 1 on tyler? are you serious?


that....must be a typo.....
Jaedong :3
gods_basement
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States305 Posts
March 26 2011 15:13 GMT
#4
oh its 141 to 1 on the whole tournament
(TT~TT)
kaisr
Profile Joined October 2007
Canada715 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-26 15:28:45
March 26 2011 15:28 GMT
#5
i got money on pinnacle on time for MC v July and bet on MC -1.5 for 1.73. Yeh i agree on most of what you said and bet on mostly everyone you bet on except for zeerax and mondi cuz i feel like i have 0 info on either of them. I bet on ogs at 1.2 something v slayers cuz I thought slayers had <10% to win. I also bet on Ret at 1.909. How do you manage to snipe your picks at pretty much peak odds lol -.-


sixfour
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
England11061 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-26 15:33:36
March 26 2011 15:32 GMT
#6
can't disagree, TLO looked like a solid value bet, zeerax seems fine but avoiding that game as mondragon seems too much of a wildcard

edit - that said today's skt/Hite game has put me down more lifetime on starcraft betting so what do I know
p: stats, horang2, free, jangbi z: soulkey, zero, shine, hydra t: leta, hiya, sea
Adebisi
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Canada1637 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-26 15:50:06
March 26 2011 15:48 GMT
#7
Man, I missed the lines for the upcoming matches, so annoying .

Have done decently otherwise though, I lost by betting on Jinro/Nightend, but won with Sen, Tyler, WhiteRa, and HasuObs.

For GSL finals I took the handicap line on MC +1.5 and took that down, GSTL was also sick for me, took SlayerS over oGs in round one :D. Bet on TSL over fOu, Startale over Prime and SlayerS over IM as well :D:D:D

Where did you get to bet on Tyler/MC winning the whole thing? I never saw those lines on Pinnacle.

There's currently lines up for FXOpen Invitational too, I took Select over SuperNova and Strelok over Zenio ;o.
rANDY
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United Kingdom748 Posts
March 26 2011 15:57 GMT
#8
On March 27 2011 00:28 kaisr wrote:
i got money on pinnacle on time for MC v July and bet on MC -1.5 for 1.73. Yeh i agree on most of what you said and bet on mostly everyone you bet on except for zeerax and mondi cuz i feel like i have 0 info on either of them. I bet on ogs at 1.2 something v slayers cuz I thought slayers had <10% to win. I also bet on Ret at 1.909. How do you manage to snipe your picks at pretty much peak odds lol -.-


I check a lot to get the best odds and normally have a good feel for if they will go up or down So important getting the best odds you can

I only had one bet on for the GSTL of SlayerS to beat StarTale.

Didn't see FXOpen odds were up, gunna go take a look
bmml
Profile Joined December 2009
United Kingdom962 Posts
March 26 2011 16:03 GMT
#9
Those tyler to win the lot odds seem like a very good punt, he really exceeds at these long preparation tourneys.
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