EPTI play in a 5-player keeper league of 12 teams, and while the manager of teams has been a game of musical chairs, it's going strong into its 8th year. We've got a number of rules, such as the "Larry Johnson Rule" (waiver priority isn't reverse pick order, as per default, but rather flat pick order, to prevent defending champions from picking up stud waiver drops) and the "Michael Vick Rule" (one flex player that can be switched into a keeper selection by a deadline prior to the draft to prevent sudden inexplicable retirements or whatnot). It’s a nice perk of having a keeper league where you can look at a team and say “dude do you remember when Rich Gannon and Ricky Williams retired on you in the same offseason?” and get a murderous glare in return.
League is a relatively standard QB WR WR WR RB RB TE K DEF roster with a six-deep bench. Point system is akin to normal non-PPR systems, but we run 1 point per 25 passing and 1 point per 10 rushing/receiving. We don't punish missed kicks, and we don't reward defensive returns like the old default Yahoo (12 points wtf). No trade limit, commissioner veto (IIRC it hasn't been done except to reverse accidental accepts), and a Nov 24 deadline. Playoffs go 14-16, so there's a certain degree of foresight needed. Our draft is also mostly a snake, but we're un-snaking round 2 in an effort to promote parity. It's a matter of discussion, and we may or may not reverse the ruling next season (pending how teams fare this year).
Draft order is:
LOL, Me, VS, FT, BSI, CC, IP, TB, HB, EM, FS, VDD
But there were some trades that were done for draft picks that I've really lost track of, and ESPN is really stupid about showing how it actually looks.
All I know is I traded my 1st, 2nd, and last picks for BSI's 1st, 3rd, and 4th.
FT's 1st and 5th were traded for IP's 3rd and 4th.
EM's 3rd went for VDD's 2nd.
CC swapped 5th and 6th with TB's 2nd and 3rd.
I don't remember who the players were that were also swapped in the above trades, because those kicked in for keeper selections already.
As I'm only trying to guestimate the first round and make a list of priority picks, I'm going to ignore most of the trades and simply focus on what the 1st rounder order looks like now.
LOL, BSI, VS, IP, Me, CC, IP, TB, HB, EM, FS, VDD
QBs:
Assuming Jake the Pick-Machine as the last starting QB and him thus being the cut-off point of reasonably expected draft choices:
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Joe Flacco, Bal QB
Jay Cutler, Chi QB
Donovan McNabb, Was QB
Matt Ryan, Atl QB
Kevin Kolb, Phi QB
Carson Palmer, Cin QB
Chad Henne, Mia QB
Matthew Stafford, Det QB
Vince Young, Ten QB
David Garrard, Jac QB
Jason Campbell, Oak QB
Ben Roethlisberger*, Pit QB
Mark Sanchez, NYJ QB
Matt Cassel, KC QB
Alex Smith, SF QB
Matt Leinart, Ari QB
Josh Freeman, TB QB
Kyle Orton, Den QB
Matt Hasselbeck, Sea QB
Sam Bradford, StL QB
Matt Moore, Car QB
Trent Edwards, Buf QB
Jake Delhomme, Cle QB
Runningbacks:
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Pierre Thomas, NO RB
Ryan Mathews, SD RB
Matt Forte, Chi RB
Shonn Greene, NYJ RB
Justin Forsett, Sea RB
Felix Jones, Dal RB
Ricky Williams, Mia RB
Jerome Harrison, Cle RB
C.J. Spiller, Buf RB
Arian Foster, Hou RB
Reggie Bush, NO RB
Jahvid Best, Det RB
Steve Slaton, Hou RB
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB
Darren Sproles, SD RB
Chester Taylor, Chi RB
Montario Hardesty, Cle RB
Michael Bush, Oak RB
Marion Barber, Dal RB
Donald Brown, Ind RB
LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ RB
Darren McFadden, Oak RB
Tim Hightower, Ari RB
Laurence Maroney, NE RB
Correll Buckhalter, Den RB
Willis McGahee, Bal RB
Kevin Smith, Det RB
Leon Washington, Sea RB
Fred Jackson, Buf RB
Derrick Ward, TB RB
Sammy Morris, NE RB
Brian Westbrook, SF RB
Kevin Faulk, NE RB
Maurice Morris, Det RB
Mewelde Moore, Pit RB
Joe McKnight, NYJ RB
Fred Taylor, NE RB
Tashard Choice, Dal RB
Bernard Scott, Cin RB
Leonard Weaver, Phi RB
Jason Snelling, Atl RB
Lex Hilliard, Mia RB
Anthony Dixon, SF RB
Mike Bell, Phi RB
Albert Young, Min RB
Jerious Norwood, Atl RB
Justin Fargas, Den RB
James Davis, Cle RB
Rashad Jennings, Jac RB
Javon Ringer, Ten RB
WRs:
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Greg Jennings, GB WR
Mike Sims-Walker, Jac WR
Mike Wallace, Pit WR
Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea WR
Pierre Garcon, Ind WR
Jeremy Maclin, Phi WR
Bernard Berrian, Min WR
Braylon Edwards, NYJ WR
Steve Breaston, Ari WR
Devery Henderson, NO WR
Terrell Owens, Cin WR
Santonio Holmes*, NYJ WR
Dez Bryant, Dal WR
Lee Evans, Buf WR
Derrick Mason, Bal WR
Johnny Knox, Chi WR
Mario Manningham, NYG WR
Devin Aromashodu, Chi WR
Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle WR
Josh Cribbs, Cle WR
Austin Collie, Ind WR
Mike Williams, TB WR
Kevin Walter, Hou WR
Early Doucet, Ari WR
Nate Burleson, Det WR
Kenny Britt, Ten WR
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ WR
Louis Murphy, Oak WR
Golden Tate, Sea WR
Malcom Floyd, SD WR
Eddie Royal, Den WR
Laurent Robinson, StL WR
Joey Galloway, Was WR
Josh Morgan, SF WR
Chris Chambers, KC WR
Donnie Avery, StL WR
Dexter McCluster, KC WR
Antonio Bryant, Cin WR
Jacoby Jones, Hou WR
Julian Edelman, NE WR
Jabar Gaffney, Den WR
Nate Washington, Ten WR
Anthony Gonzalez, Ind WR
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak WR
Mike Thomas, Jac WR
Demaryius Thomas, Den WR
Troy Williamson, Jac WR
Antwaan Randle El, Pit WR
Michael Jenkins, Atl WR
TEs:
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Dallas Clark, Ind TE
Tony Gonzalez, Atl TE
Vernon Davis, SF TE
Brent Celek, Phi TE
Jermichael Finley, GB TE
Chris Cooley, Was TE
Visanthe Shiancoe, Min TE
Zach Miller, Oak TE
Heath Miller, Pit TE
John Carlson, Sea TE
Greg Olsen, Chi TE
Kevin Boss, NYG TE
Dustin Keller, NYJ TE
Fred Davis, Was TE
Tony Scheffler, Det TE
Jeremy Shockey, NO TE
Marcedes Lewis, Jac TE
Benjamin Watson, Cle TE
Todd Heap, Bal TE
Anthony Fasano, Mia TE
Jermaine Gresham, Cin TE
Bo Scaife, Ten TE
Brandon Pettigrew, Det TE
David Thomas, NO TE
Aaron Hernandez, NE TE
Shawn Nelson*, Buf TE
Keepers by team are:
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LOL
- Peyton
- Wes Welker
- Donald Driver
- Santana Moss
- Clinton Portis
BSI
- Rodgers
- Brandon Jacobs
- Stephen Jackson
- Reggie Wayne
- Crabtree
VS
- Boldin
- Napoleon Williams
- Knowshon
- Favre
- Owen Daniels
IP
- Dwayne Bowe
- Marshawn Lynch
- Brady
- Mendenhall
- Meachem
NS <- the unfortunate me
- Romo
- Andre Johnson
- Steve Smith (Car)
- Antonio Gates
- LeSean McCoy
CC
- Ryan Grant
- DeSean Jackson
- Randy Moss
- Rivers
- Michael Turner
TB
- CJ
- Jon Stewart
- Schaub
- Harvin
- Benson
HB
- Brees
- Ronnie Brown
- Colston
- Sidney Rice
- Jamaal Charles
EM
- AP
- Witten
- Ochocinco
- Roddy White
- Miles Austin
FS
- MJD
- Calvin Johnson
- Vincent Jackson
- Ray Rice
- Steve Smith (NYG)
VDD
- Fitzgerald
- Ward
- Gore
- Addai
- Beanie Wells
FT
- Winslow
- Eli
- Thomas Jones
- Brandon Marshall
- Cadillac
My guestimation of what people’ll be looking for at first round:
LOL – RB
BSI – RB WR TE
VS – WR
IP – RB WR TE
Me – RB
CC – RB TE
IP – RB WR TE
TB - WR
HB – WR TE
EM – RB
FS – BPA
VDD – QB WR TE
Based on these guesses I’d imagine something like
LOL – Ryan Matthews
BSI – Greg Jennings
VS – Braylon Edwards
IP – Shonn Greene
Me - *gives middle finger to everyone above*
I’d probably have to take Justin Forsett, as of the remaining RBs he’s the best shot at having a good portion of carries (as opposed to BS platoons like Pierre Thomas and full/minor shares like Jones Foster and Bradshaw. If I can get either Matthews or Greene I’d leap at them, but I doubt it (also Greene has LDT behind him, although Greene has really good keeper upside). I’m always iffy on Seahawks, as they’ve done nothing but let me (and others) down, but meh. If I can’t even get Forsett here I’ll be stuck – I really need at least one keeper RB for the future (McCoy is “meh” and was mostly a panic keep), and I really don’t know if Forsett is going to be worthy of it, much less anyone else. I definitely don’t anticipate competing this year, so other options might include Felix Jones and Arian Foster, with Michael Bush and Fred Jackson being outside shots. I’m always wary of RBs that didn’t pan out early (you get odd blossoms like Napoleon but otherwise you get JJ Arringtons).
Regardless of what happens after this pick all the way to my next pick in the 3rd round, I’m probably going to go with RB with keeper/sleeper potential > WR > everything else, and I may even gamble on picking Def/K late to maximize pick values for RB/WR “earlier” – in an ideal world at the end of this season I’ll come out with 2 keeper RBs and 3 keeper WRs, and to do that I “only” need two RBs with potential and one WR that trumps Gates/Romo with regards to relative value. That’s of course assuming (as I am) that LeSean McCoy will do absolutely nothing this year. If he kicks ass, great. It’ll be a pleasant and unexpected surprise.
Young RBs I’ll target/keep an eye on (aside from the ones listed above) probably include Jerome Harrison, Jahvid Best, Donald Brown, Steve Slaton, and Joe McKnight. With regards to sleepers I’d look at LaGarrett Blount/Javon Ringer (whoever looks like they’ll win the backup slot) and Jason Snelling – I feel like CJ and Burner are in for trouble (overwork). Ricky Weed is also worth a look but he’s too old for me to really bother wasting an early pick on considering my draft goal.
WR is more of a crapshoot/treasure-trove depending on how you want to look at it. The drop-off is insane from the first pick (Jennings) to the next (Sims-Walker/Mike Wallace/Hakeem Nicks) and within ~20 picks drops to the Josh Cribbs line. As with other years I’ll probably just take shots at random WRs like Britt (if he’s there when I look), Lee Evans, Dez Bryant, etc. It’s hell trying to figure out if a WR will pan out, so I’m mostly gonna take a scattershot and just draft a multitude of WRs in the hopes that one hits. If anyone has advice on how to draft WRs (especially with the future in mind) do tell, this thing has me stumped (in the history of my team I’ve drafted Roy Williams and AJ twice, dropped both at least once, and picked up both at least once, so yeah WRs are WEIRD).
