2024 GSL Code S Season 1

RO8 Group B Preview: Stats, SHIN, Cure, GuMiho

Thursday, Apr 04 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

Group A gave us a taste of StarCraft II under the new 5.0.13 patch—now it's time to see how the game plays now that the players have a week of practice under the belts.



The star of the group is Stats, though not because he's a favorite to advance. The Shield of Aiur has hardly looked like his old self since his return from the military in early 2023, leaving Protoss fans to huff a copium/hopium blend while reminding themselves "it usually takes over a year for returnees to recover their form."

Well, it's been over a year now, and that return to form just might be happening. Stats created the biggest upset of the season so far in the RO16, beating Dark and Classic to advance from Group B in first place. Despite claiming the #1 seed, it was a mixed performance from Stats. It was concerning to see Dark surgically dismantle his Skytoss deathball with great spellcaster usage, in a situation that supposedly favors Protoss when both players are similarly skilled. However, Stats gave Dark a schooling of his own when he decided to focus on a more ground-based composition in a late-game rematch, running circles around his opponent's Brood Lords with his more mobile force. Those contrasting results told me all of the game sense and intuition that made Stats great is still there, even if the muscle-memory and execution isn't fully restored.

Of course, one should be wary about reading too deeply into the result from a single group. Stats gave us a painful fool's gold performance in the IEM Katowice 2024 qualifiers, only to suffer a brutal 0-5 beating when he actually had to play at the main event. However, Stats followed up his GSL RO16 group with a series of good showings in various online competitions, including a successful qualification run for StarsWars 11 that saw him take out Cure and ByuN along the way. He looked like a whole different player than the one who went 0-4 in PvT at Katowice (losing to Cure, Clem, Bunny, and Oliveira)—he was far less prone to suffering catastrophic early game losses, and I daresay he could look unstoppable at times in the late-game.

While this turnaround is rather abrupt, it's enough to have me starting to believe in Stats for real. Both GuMiho and Classic had very abrupt rises over a year into their returns from the military, and it feels like the same is happening for Stats right now.

The reality of SHIN's skill level is another mystery headed into this group, as the Zerg-formerly-known-as-RagnaroK has a lengthy history of up and down performances. GSL 2023 for SHIN was very much on the 'down' side, where he actually failed to qualify twice in the thinned-out Korean scene, and was stopped in the RO16 the one time he did qualify. On the other hand, with a Code S runner-up in 2022, RO4 finish at Katowice 2023, and recently, a RO8 finish at Katowice 2024 (winning his RO24 group both times), SHIN has proven there's plenty of substance to his game when he's in form.

So, IS he in form? The answer for me is an emphatic "maybe." He very nearly took first place in his RO16 group, but ultimately blew a chance to win his first ever BO3 against Maru (now 0-24 all time) after making a series of devastating late game mistakes. Looking back to Katowice, his early and mid-game ZvT looked quite excellent (wins against Cure, Clem, Oliveira, loss to Bunny), but again his late-game was a concern. I can see him overpowering GuMiho and Cure with Hydra-Bane-Viper in the mid-game, and I can also envision him futility bashing his head against their hardened defenses until he has to GG. As for PvZ, that's more of a mystery as SHIN has only played two series since Katowice. I don't take much away from his 2-0 against Stats at IEM, since I don't think Stats will be repeating the series of micromanagement errors that led to his defeat.

Outside his gameplay, my bigger concern for SHIN is his career results pattern. His RO4 finish at Katowice 2023 seemed like it would be a career launchpad, but it actually led into one of his worst domestic league years ever. Similar to this year, he had every reason to stay motivated and keep practicing to qualify for Gamers8, but he just couldn't keep up his high level of play. So, while I think RagnaroK has all the potential to make a finals run this season, his inconsistency and late-game foibles leave me feeling rather wary.

Unpredictable player number three is GuMiho, who's been delightfully and maddeningly vexing for nearly his entire career. While he made the EPT Summer and Code S Season 3 finals in 2023, I can't contextualize them at all in terms of what his overall level is. Random runner-up finishes in major events? Yeah, that's what this rascal can do *Slaps the hood of '92 GuMiho pick-up truck.*

GuMiho has been suspiciously middle-of-the-road since that runner-up finish in Code S Season 3, finishing RO12 at EPT Winter and RO12 at IEM Katowice 2024. He advanced to this season's RO8 almost unnoticed, slipping through Group C with two wins against the outmatched NightMare. All this makes my totally non-objective GuMiho sense tingle, because he's incapable of having an extended quiet stretch. Inevitably, he ends up exploding and putting together an impressive and highly entertaining tournament run, one that has everyone saying "Man, GuMiho is the best" (not at StarCraft II, but just the best in general). While I'm not at red alert yet, a group with a guaranteed TvT and two other wild card players is certainly a great opportunity for GuMiho to make a playoff run.

A note about the patch: usually, a new patch and map pool would be a boon for GuMiho, as he's one of the players who's quick to adapt to the changes and come out with new strategies. However, there's not much in this patch that synergizes with his unorthodox proclivities, and the BO3 format will probably keep the weirder maps from being played. Still, GuMiho has a tendency to do weird stuff just for the sake of it, so my not-so-bold prediction is that he'll try to force some kind of Hellbat or Thor timing due to the cheaper Armory.

The only player who's a known quantity in this group is Cure, who's been a steady, championship-contender player for nearly a year now. Granted, there's the problem where no one believes he'll ever beat Maru or Serral in a meaningful series, but that's not a relevant issue for now. At this stage of the competition, he's unquestionably the group favorite as the player with the best short-term and long-term results (well, I guess Stats has better long, LONG term results).

Cure looked to be in top shape in the RO16, advancing in first place with 2-0 wins over both herO and Ryung. I took particular note of the herO series, where he took a blink-and-you'll-miss-it victory thanks to two perfectly executed cheeses. The Code S-winning version of Cure was the one who was just as good at all-ins and mind games as he was at standard play, and I'm interested to see if he keeps up that approach in the following rounds.

Still, Cure's advancement is far from guaranteed, and he has potential problems against all three group opponents. Initial opponent GuMiho beat him in the RO8 of the previous Code S, reminding us that Code S-level TvT is basically a 50/50 when players not named Maru are involved. Against SHIN, Cure is currently on a three match losing streak, including a 0-2 loss at IEM Katowice. TvZ also happens to be Cure's worst match-up overall, and Aligulac actually favors SHIN in a head-to-head. Finally, while Cure has a 9-1 match record against Stats since his return from the military, that one loss came last weekend in the StarsWar 11 qualifier. Stats' 2-1 win in that series—including a super-late-game win with mass Carriers—was the result that most convinced me that he was 'back.'

Predictions

Aligulac.com sees SHIN and Cure as moderate favorites to advance, but generally sees this as a pretty close group.

Given the uncertainty around Stats, SHIN, and GuMiho's form, I'm going to go with the steady and proven Cure to take first place. As for second place, I'm going to put my faith in Stats and say he's ready to play at a GSL playoffs level again.

Stats 2 - 1 SHIN
Cure 2 - 1 GuMiho
Cure 2 - 0 Stats
SHIN 2 - 1 GuMiho
Stats 2 - 1 SHIN

Cure and Stats to advance.

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