2023 GSL Code S Season 3

RO8 Group A Preview: Cure, DongRaeGu, GuMiho, Solar

Start time: Tuesday, Oct 24 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

I wish we had more time to process one of the most upset-laden Code S RO16's we've had in some time, but instead we're headed right into the RO8 while we're still reeling from the shock.

Are all these crazy results due to the new patch and map pool? Is this basically Cure's championship to lose at this point? Will this be one of those seasons where an underdog captures lightning in a bottle and reaches the finals? So many questions and so few answers—maybe we'll get a little bit of clarity from Group A of the RO8.



When Cure saw Maru drop out of Group A in last place, he must have thought luck was on his side. But when he also saw herO and ByuN go out in Groups C & D, he might have even wondered if he was being sent a direct message from the StarCraft gods: It's time for you to win another GSL Code S.

The fact is, there's a good case to be made that Maru is the sole reason Cure hasn't already won two more Code S tournaments this year. Across two and a half seasons, Cure is undefeated in matches against all GSL players except Maru, who beat him once in the finals and once in the semis. In fact, Cure's dominance against non-Maru Koreans extends beyond the GSL. Even in the international events of Gamers8 and Master's Coliseum, he went undefeated against his non-Maru countrymen (Serral and Reynor did beat him handily, but they're of no concern here). During this stretch, Cure has proved himself to be a consummate all-arounder, a king-of-all-trades. Whether it's creative all-ins or late-game turtling, Cure can do it all.

At this point, I feel like the only player who can get in Cure's way is himself. Even after winning a Code S title in late 2021, he hasn't been able to fully shed the reputation of being a chronic choker in big matches. Cure probably should have defeated Maru in last season's semifinals after taking a 2-0 lead, but he made a series of unusual mistakes that let Maru steal a 3-2 comeback. Also, he has a history of underperforming severely when playing at IEM Katowice. On the other hand, his run to the Gamers8 finals was relatively clean, and his finals loss to Reynor didn't seem to be a matter of nerves. It's too small a sample to draw conclusions from, but this Code S title could be in the bag for Cure if he's really turned a corner in terms of big game performances.

Cure might be the new title favorite, but it's not like there's an insurmountable gap between him and the other players in this group. For example, even someone like Aligulac's 22nd ranked DongRaeGu could be an unexpected upset threat in this group.

After I wrote DRG off in the RO16 previews, he put in a strong showing to earn a surprise RO8 berth over ByuN. All it took was two solid defensive holds against ByuN's early aggression—after that, DRG's famed mid-game macro play took over. Now, I've said in many, many previews that inconsistent early game defense is a big weakness for DRG. But when he does get to play some proper macro StarCraft, he's consistently shown he has a fighting chance against top Terrans. So, both GuMiho and Cure better try and bring some better openers than ByuN (although to be honest, 3-Rax Reapers is something that only seems to make sense to ByuN himself), or perhaps really hone in on the late-game where DRG is less potent.

Also, Solar needs to be on guard after DRG came close to upsetting Dark in the RO16. DRG played a great underdog ZvZ series with sneaky builds like a hidden ling-flood and fast gold-base build on Alcyone, but he just couldn't close out his games against Dark's superior combat micro (not a big knock on DRG—few people are better at ZvZ combat micro than Dark). I know that Solar is on a ZvZ heater right now, just recently having a 16-match winning streak broken, but even he should have a healthy fear of a ZvZ BO3 with GSL preparation time.

Speaking of Solar, let's move on to the nominal, second strongest player in the group. Despite Solar tag-teaming with Scarlett to unceremoniously dump Maru from the RO16, I'm rather pessimistic about his chances of advancing any further in Code S. Solar won against Maru largely due to a pair of terrible mistakes from his opponent—miswalling on Alcyone and canceling a nearly finished third CC on Oceanborn—so it didn't exactly make me reevaluate his ZvT (which is really good, don't get me wrong). His other two matches were a bit of a mixed bag. He lost to a surprisingly solid Creator, but continued his streak of ZvZ dominance with a very one-sided victory against Scarlett.

But, ultimately, Solar's RO16 performance is besides the point. He still possesses the unfortunate distinction of never having reached the Code S RO4 in his entire career—that encompasses almost thirty seasons of GSL Code S/A since he switched over fully to StarCraft II in 2013. It's the kind of record that becomes even more inexplicable when you consider Solar has achieved plenty of top four finishes and won a handful of championships in other events (even ones that are bigger than Code S like IEM Katowice or Gamers8). It's beyond the kind of statistical aberration you can pass off as being due to luck or variance—I can only conclude that Solar must be cursed in GSL Code S.

Rounding out the group is GuMiho, the fan-favorite wildcard whose performances are extraordinarily difficult to predict. The summer was a period of all-or-nothing results for the GuMigod: he placed top four in Code S Season 2 and runner-up at EPT Masters Summer, only to flop out of the first rounds of HomeStory Cup, AfreecaTV Champions' Cup, and Masters' Coliseum.

GuMiho's RO16 performance in this season of Code S only left me more confused about his current level. After a cursory win over casual gamer soO, he beat herO in a messy series that you could either attribute to GuMiho's skill in chaotic games or herO self-combusting due to his overly aggressive style. Sure, it's a credit to GuMiho that he can drag anyone down into a disorderly brawl, but given herO's recent penchant for self-sabotage, I'm not sure he needed much prodding. Still, when I consider DRG's overall poor year outside of this season and Solar's unfortunate history in the GSL, I have to lean toward giving GuMiho my second pick to advance.

My concern with GuMiho is that he might try to be too clever for his own good. He only showed one especially unorthodox build in the RO16—a straightforward mech win against the outmatched soO—but you got the feeling he wanted to show off his creativity a bit more. And by that, I mean he literally gave a winner interview talking about how he wanted to show more mech in the new patch, despite his winrate not being great in practice. Personally, I don't think this is some kind of mind-game to trick his groupmates—his playing history tells us he genuinely loves doing cool, unusual stuff. Unfortunately, I think rolling over present-day soO with battlemech doesn't tell us much about its viability at all, and I could easily see GuMiho losing to big 200/200 timings from Solar or DRG if he doesn't play his mech perfectly.

As for a potential match against Cure, I actually think that's where GuMiho has his biggest advantage in this group. There's really not much separation between the top Terrans in TvT (besides Maru), and any one of them could beat each other on a given day. That's actually a match-up where GuMiho should play mech/sky-Terran and make the most of his aptitude for positional play.

Predictions

At the time of writing, Aligulac saw Cure and Solar as strong favorites to advance with 75% and 70% chances, respectively. And while that falls in line with conventional wisdom, I'm going to discard Solar's chances out of hand due to his decade-long Code S RO4 curse.

It's a pretty tight choice between GuMiho and DRG for second place, but I'll roll with the player who had the better Code S result last season and say the Towel Terran reaches the Code S semifinals for the second time in a row.

Cure > DongRaeGu
Solar > GuMiho
Cure > Solar
GuMiho > DongRaeGu
GuMiho > Solar

Cure and GuMiho to advance.

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