2023 GSL Code S Season 3

RO16 Group A Preview: Maru, Scarlett, Creator, Solar

Start time: Tuesday, Oct 10 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

As we head into the third and final Code S Season of 2023, there's one huge question that looms over the proceedings: can anyone stop Maru from winning an eighth championship?

The ONSYDE Gaming Terran has been unstoppable over the last 12 months, winning three Code S championships in a row. The only thing keeping the G8L from being a 100% foregone conclusion is the memory herO's underdog run from 2022's Season 2, where he gave the performance of his career to upset Maru for the championship. herO might have faded since then, but perhaps someone else will find the spark of inspiration needed to challenge the GSL's greatest champion.


Honestly, I'm tired of yawning through Maru's group stage previews, trying to come up with a reason why he might even be a little bit threatened. Whether it's pointing out his slightly weakened TvT, bringing up that time he was eliminated in the RO16 two years ago, or reminding people that his opponent could—*gasp*—try an all-in, I know I'm just grasping at straws in the end.

The latest non-issue for Maru is the newly implemented 5.0.12 patch and a brand new pool of nine maps. This worked against him once in LotV, as he was eliminated in the Code S RO16 a few months after the 'Battery Overcharge is a thing now' patch in 2020. But when looking at the bigger picture of Maru's tournament results next to the balance patch timeline, there really doesn't seem to be much of a correlation. If anything, my read is that Maru tends to perform even better in the aftermath of a major balance patch.

There's little to indicate that 5.0.12 will be an egregiously bad patch for Terran (although these things can change rapidly as players figure the meta out), or that Maru's form has significantly dipped since the last Code S Season (he's comfortably seated at #2 in the Aligulac.com rankings at the time of writing). So, I'm going to do the obvious thing here and laser-engrave Maru's name in for yet another RO8 appearance.

Not that anyone needed more reasons to be confident in Maru, but drawing Scarlett as an initial opponent is certainly a boost. After missing the first two Code S Seasons of 2023, the Canadian Zerg only managed to qualify for Season 3 with a last gasp win over the semi-retired sOs in the very last match of the preliminaries. Things haven't been much better for her in international competition, as she failed to win a single match at IEM Katowice and DreamHack Summer. Though she did take second place in the last EPT Americas, it's not that meaningful when you consider the poor results of the region's non-Neeb players in GSL Code S.

It's clear that the situation is very bleak for Scarlett, but I'll convert my unused Maru-doubt energy to Scarlett-positivity and try to make an advancement case for her. A loss to Maru in the initial match can't be avoided, but there's an outside chance she could squeak through to the RO8 in second place. Creator hasn't exactly had the best 2023 either, getting eliminated in the RO16 of the last two Code S seasons while eating a lot of early/mid-round eliminations in overseas events. While he's still playing better StarCraft than Scarlett, he's definitely within range of an upset. As for a potential match against Solar, the randomness of ZvZ might be enough to get Scarlett through (nevermind that Solar is on a 13-match winning streak against her). Alright, was that enough hopium to get Scarlett fans through the day?

Moving on to Creator, let's expand on his mediocre 2023 I touched upon in the Scarlett section. Creator has continued to slowly fall down to earth after his remarkable second-place run in Code S Season 1 of 2022, and the situation is starting to get slightly concerning. Not only was he eliminated in the RO16 of both Code S Seasons this year, but he's failed to make RO16 in most major internationals as well (his best result on the year was a respectable RO12 finish at IEM Katowice). I'm not worried about a backslide to meme-player status—rare are the 'did nothing and then GG'd' games of old. However, he just hasn't been a threat to championship-tier players lately.

While I won't be picking Creator to advance, I'm cautiously optimistic about there being double-Zergs for him to face in this group. I've been less than complimentary about Creator's micro in the past, but he does have a knack for surviving until he can assemble the mid/late-game deathball. Against all but the best Zergs, he can still A-move this composition to victory in a decent percentage of his games. Also, like all Code S regulars, he has a good nose for when to throw in that all-in to get a cheap win. It would be a very realistic result for Creator to grind his way past two middling Zergs and reach the RO8—the question is whether or not Solar has evolved far beyond that status.

Yeah, I get that any player who wins three straight matches against Serral over a short period should get consideration as at least a fringe championship contender. The thing is, we've been through so many hype-disappointment cycles with GSL-Solar that we know better. We've seen him have MVP-worthy seasons in the SCBOY Team Leagues, we've seen him crush in online play, and we've even seen him win events like GSL Super Tournament and the old SSL. However, for whatever reason, none of this has translated to significant Code S success

It's one of the more baffling mysteries in SC2—Solar has previously attributed it to him playing a predictable, macro-oriented style, but I'm not sure if I agree. The best versions of Solar we've seen both inside and outside the GSL are when he's a full-on macro beast, and I think he's better off trying to go down the Serral/Reynor path than channeling his inner Rogue/Dark. However, when he's playing in the AfreecaTV studio, his early-game defense isn't quite as tight, his mid-game engagements aren't as efficient, and things just tend to fall apart.

Ultimately, these concerns probably won't matter at this stage of the tournament. Maru might be Solar's greatest weakness, but Solar is still strongly favored to get out in second place versus two players who don't have any momentum behind them at all. We'll revisit the Solar quandary in the later rounds.

Predictions

The Aligulac.com odds shows that the numbers are in line with my gut feeling on this group, and what I assume most fans are thinking as well. Maru is heavily favored with nearly a 94% chance of advancing, while Solar is comfortably in second with a 70% chance. Creator has a decent underdog chance at 30%, while Aligulac projects Scarlett to be dead in the water with a 5% chance.

Maru > Scarlett
Solar > Creator
Maru > Solar
Creator > Scarlett
Solar > Creator

Maru and Solar to advance.

---