ESL have announced group draws for the round-of-24 main event and the bracket for the round-of-36 play-in stage at IEM Katowice 2023.
The play-in stage sees sixteen players compete in a double elimination bracket, with the top four players advancing on to the main event (RO24 group stage). The RO24 group stage is played out as four separate round-robin groups, with 12 players advancing to the single elimination playoff round.
Group of death? I would say Group A. Gabes draw against three top korean terrans is pretty hard for him, too. Maybe Lambo is at least happy that he has only one matchup so far
Cure and Zoun feel like locks to make it through the ro36, the last two slots will come down to who plays well on the day. If Ryung wasn't against Zerg first round I wouldn't hate his chances.
B is the easiest group, I think you can make an argument for any of the others being the hardest.
Group A is definitely toughest for the top seed, with Clem having issue with beating most the guys in the group. Followed by group C where I think the ZvZ might give us some upset. Group B and D have the top seed play their best matchup (ZvP and TvT) so it should be easier to predict Reynor and Maru to advance in 1st place. Btw, they still havent announced the patch mod to be used for IEM?
To me it seems like group D has the highest current form. Too bad it's mostly TvT. Bunny and ByuN are playing really well, and Maru keeps being very good despite slumping a bit. I am unsure about the form of Heromarine, but he has had a stable high skill level for a couple of years. With Lambo as the runt, the lowest skilled player is also quite high.
Compare that with group B were the top players are way better than the bottom. Reynor has been a bit shaky this year but he has always sharpened up for these huge events in the past. I expected him to top his form yet again. Astrea has been on an absolute tear in recent time and is deserving of praise. Creator had a good half of 2022 but fell of a bit. Showtime has not impressed me much of late, Him beating the one man army in his prime (ByuN lost vs Showtime in the group stage of the Blizzcon ByuN won) is a far off thing now. Lastly, we have GuMiho. He plays great TvT, but his experiments and general understanding of the other match ups look very shaky. I don't think he'll win a single match vs the other 4 in his group.
Group A has 3 question marks. Is RagnaroK good or great? Will his nerves manage? Can Neeb keep doing well or was his recent performances a fluke? I suspect he will put more effort into SC2 than his studies so he has the possibility to be great. Oliveira is a player that rises and falls regularly, but I have not seen a pattern yet. He can play like a top 3 player in the world, like a semi pro, or anything in between. Will we see the greatness in Katowice? I don't know, but I hope.
Group C has 2 absolute beasts in herO and Serral. Solar is known to make huge blunders but play amazingly the rest of the time. If he can isolate blunders to a few games then he can crush anyone. If not, then he can go out with 0 map wins. DRG looks like a solid player. Worse than the best, better than many. SpeCial has been playing way worse since TY went military/pandemic times. TY is back and pandemic is winding down in non-China. Will SpeCial improve to enough to be competitive? I doubt it.
I wonder if any of the play in players will spice things up.
On January 20 2023 08:53 dysenterymd wrote: Cure and Zoun feel like locks to make it through the ro36, the last two slots will come down to who plays well on the day. If Ryung wasn't against Zerg first round I wouldn't hate his chances.
B is the easiest group, I think you can make an argument for any of the others being the hardest.
I think Elazer should be the favorite to get out from the upper bracket with Scarlett and Nightmare being in the chase. I don't really believe in either Ryung or soO atm.
The lower half is a lot harder to call, since we don't really know Cure or Armani form, but Zoun should be the favorite.
Cure looks like 2013-2015 INno. Both in style and ability. It's like an optimised build performed very well with the occasional offensive cheese mixed in. Very rigid and solid play. Great vs weaker players, a struggle vs better players.
Can't believe it's almost time for Katowice 2023 - still remember when it was online only and Reynor won it all in 2021. Excited to tune into all of the matches and group stage play.