2022 GSL Code S Season 3 - Round of 20

by Poopi

This group might very well be the group of death, now that Classic and GuMiho are playing at their highest level since returning from military service. Indeed, there are six Code S trophies between Maru, Classic and GuMiho, which is far more than any other group. When you add the fact that Zoun is a solid protoss who defeated Dark to top his RO20 group last season, then it becomes very difficult to predict who will come out of Group C.

Group C Preview: Maru, Classic, Zoun, GuMiho

Start time: Sunday, Aug 28 11:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

Maru barely needs an introduction, as he's widely considered the best Terran player in the world. Even though he's fallen short of his championship standard, his results have been excellent by any other measure: 2nd place at DreamHack: Valencia versus Dark and another 2nd place in Code S Season 2 against herO. Little has changed about his championship contender status, and he's the big favorite to advance in first place from this group.

However, we should keep in mind that Maru lost rather one-sidedly in his TvP finals against herO, and also dropped a BO3 series against ShoWTimE in TSL9 (albeit online). Thus, there's reason to be a bit concerned about his TvP, as he's been eliminated from Code S by underdog Protoss players in the past. Notably, Zoun himself has shown Maru the door, and he's arguably a better player now.

Interestingly enough, Maru's TvP is actually his weakest match-up by Aligulac.com rating, trailing some 200~300 points behind his TvT and TvZ. But despite this, he's STILL the #1 ranked TvP player in the world. His raw win-loss stats in TvP aren't that impressive, with only a 14W-7L match record (33W-23L in maps), but that's because he plays almost entirely against top-class players. With previous losses to the likes of ShoWTimE, Creator, and Zoun, there's a chance that he could lose to Zoun again if his hands are sluggish and he can't dodge Disruptor hits on the day. However, Classic should be someone he's comfortably above, even if the military returnee has improved a lot lately.

As for TvT, Maru did happen to have his win-streak snapped last season after he tried to get a little too creative against Bunny (going for weird Raven rush and Ghost builds). However, that feels like an outlier result amid a sea of TvT domination, and Maru should have a big edge against GuMiho.

Going back to Classic, the veteran Protoss returned from military service one year ago in August of 2021. While his results don't compare well to herO who returned at a similar date, that's largely due to herO enjoying an unprecedented degree of post-military success (he's even admitted that he feels he's ahead of schedule).

Compared to most other military returnees, Classic seems to be making progress at a normal pace. He has definitely had some struggles, not even qualifying for Code S Season 2 this year (losing to ByuN, DRG, soO, and KeeN in the qualifiers), but he's been putting up some solid results as well. He's currently qualified for the top 12 of TSL9, made some deep runs in ESL Open Cups, and just barely missed out on the HSC 21 playoffs by a single map in the group stage. However, being merely 'solid' probably won't be enough to advance from such a difficult group, and having an opening match versus Maru of all players does not help.

GuMiho has been in a similar boat as Classic, returning in the summer of 2021 and making slow progress to become a solid mid-tier player (he actually went exactly 119W-119L in maps in 2021). However, he's rapidly picked up steam in the past couple of months, winning three ESL Open Cups and even topping his HomeStory Cup group with a BO3 victory against Serral.

While some may be concerned that it's just a momentary blip, it could also be a sign that he's ready to resume his position as one of the best Terran players in the world. If he can keep up his recent form in Code S, he should be the favorite against Classic and have a good chance of beating Zoun.

In a weird way, Zoun feels like the steady GSL veteran despite being the player with the least experience, simply because Classic and GuMiho have only recently returned to being GSL regulars. If we only accounted for Korean tournaments, Zoun would probably have been the favorite to take 2nd place by a large margin. In Season 2, Maru finished 2nd, Classic did not qualify, and GuMiho finished last in his RO20 group. On the other hand, Zoun had a pretty decent run, winning his RO20 group (defeating Dark) but getting eliminated from the RO10 in last place.

With GuMiho surging in non-GSL tournaments, he looks like a potentially dangerous initial opponent for Zoun. However, Zoun has reached a comfortable baseline of being around a top ten player in Korea, so it would be understandable to pick him to win because of his consistency. Aligulac only sees him as a small favorite against GuMiho with around a 52% chance to win, but I think this is one of those cases where the formula is underrating the player who doesn't play in as many smaller cups—it's probably closer to 60:40.

Predictions: While Reynor's last place finish in Group B showed how perilous Code S can be, Maru is still the clear favorite in this group. Maru has a lot more GSL experience, and the match-ups align well for him as he's facing Classic first.

The real question is about who will finish in second place. Both Classic and GuMiho seem to have improved a lot in recent months, while Zoun has been a steady Code S player for a few years now. A lot of the outcome will depend on how permanent the skill increases for the two military returnees are, and if they can play at their best level Code S.

I think GuMiho will be able to beat Zoun in their opening match, but Zoun will fight his way back against Classic to earn a rematch in the decider. There, the infamous “rematch curse” will claim GuMiho as its next victim (with Dream already falling in Group B), and Zoun will advance alongside Maru.

Maru > Classic
GuMiho > Zoun

Maru > GuMiho
Classic < Zoun

Zoun > GuMiho

Maru and Zoun to advance.

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