2022 GSL Code S Season 2 - Round of 6 Preview

by Wax
With the group stages finished, we're headed to the restructured 2022 version of the GSL playoffs for the second time. Here's a refresher for fans who aren't used to the new format yet:

herO and Dark, the two 1st place finishers from the RO10 groups, have been directly seeded into the RO4. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers from each group must now compete in the RO6 to try and claim the remaining two RO4 spots. The format is essentially a mini-double elimination bracket, with the 3rd place finishers starting in the losers' bracket while the 2nd place finishers start in the winners' bracket.

Round of 6 - Maru, Bunny, DongRaeGu, RagnaroK

Start time: Monday, Jul 18 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

#2 Seed Match: Maru vs Bunny

Both Maru and Bunny were forced to deal with COVID-19 related disadvantages in the RO10—Maru actually being ill with COVID-19 and playing online, while Bunny lacked practice time after quarantining in Spain for over week before returning to Korea—but they were nonetheless able to survive to reach the RO6 playoffs.

In Bunny's case, he seemed to find a silver lining in his unfortunate situation. In his post-match interviews, he talked about how it was oddly good for him that his hands felt a bit heavy from lack of practice, as he was forced to play safe, slow, macro games. He contrasted it with the risky plays he tends to go for when his hands feel light, sometimes resulting in disastrous throws.

Alas, whether Bunny wants to keep playing it safe or resume rolling the dice, I don't think it will matter much against Maru. The 4-time Code S champion has been a nigh-invincible Terran vs Terran player since basically the moment TY began his military service, and he's put up a ridiculous 30W-3L record in TvT over the last calendar year with a 68W-15L map record (if I cherry pick the date range to be maximum impressive, Maru is 38W-3L over the last 464 days). While Maru has had a number of BO3 series go the distance in that time, he's won all seven of his BO5 series played by a score of 3-1 or 3-0. The expected result for this series isn't just that Maru will win, it's that Maru will win and it won't even be close.

However, there's one complication worth considering, even if it doesn't drastically change my outlook on the match. Back in 2021 when Maru was in the midst of a gaudy 22 match winning streak in TvT, it was actually Bunny who ended the streak with a 2-1 win in TSL8. The games Bunny won were fairly one-sided in his favor, as he correctly read Maru's early Medivac + Reaper attacks and crushed them with a well-prepared defense. In some regard, you could say these matches were more about Maru's mistakes than Bunny's great play—Maru committed to these attacks despite it seeming clear that it was suicidal. However, you still have to credit Bunny for putting himself in a situation to take advantage of Maru's mistakes to begin with. Bunny mentioned his familiarity with Maru in his post-RO10 interview as well, although in a more deferential manner by referring to Maru as his TvT teacher. But if Maru has taught his pupil everything he knows, then Bunny might be able to use that knowledge to his advantage.

While I'm mildly intrigued by the idea of Bunny mind-reading Maru and scoring another big upset, I think the probability of such an event is very low. That TSL8 outcome still feels like an enormous outlier, unlike any series Maru has played in the last year or so. Aligulac gives Maru a considerable edge with a 86% chance of winning, and overall I agree with that assessment. Perhaps Bunny will be the first player to take Maru to a five game series in over a year, but I don't think he'll actually be able to win.

Prediction: Maru 3 - 1 Bunny

#3 Seed Match: DongRaeGu vs RagnaroK

Somehow, we've ended up with an exact repeat of last season's #3 seed match. Back then, RagnaroK prevailed by a 3-1 scoreline in a series that didn't have a single 'proper' macro game, with some sort of all-in or low-econ aggression factoring into every map. It was the kind of series that reinforced the notion of ZvZ as a rock-paper-scissors battle of build orders, which makes it hard to say that either player was definitely better or worse on the day.

I get the feeling that this rematch will play out in a similar way. From RagnaroK's side, a lot of his GSL success has been due to his careful preparation of build orders. Even when he's looking to play a macro game, he's always trying to start things off with a slightly off-kilter build like a 'macro' offensive Hatchery (not really applicable in ZvZ) or a Pool-first build. From DRG's side, he'll probably be aggressive because he knows ZvZ is his weakest match-up. It's not uncommon for Zerg players to have an Aligulac ZvZ rating a couple hundred points below their ZvP/ZvZ, but DRG is an extremely uncommon case where his ZvZ is a full 500 points below his ZvT. He's a player of extremely lop-sided strengths, and it behooves him to get tricky in ZvZ. It's actually worked out remarkably well for him at times—most notably his double BO3 wins against Serral at DreamHack: Last Chance (yes, I will mention this in every single DRG preview for at least the next 6 months).

Aligulac sees RagnaroK as a mild favorite with around a 60% chance to win, which is about what I'd expect if the two played straight-up games. However, I feel like this series will actually be very chaotic with a lot of risky plays, so it's closer to a coin-flip in my mind. Ultimately, I'm going to go with RagnaroK because I think he's a slightly better player in standard ZvZ should the games normalize to that state.

Prediction: RagnaroK 3 - 2 DongRaeGu

Decider Match: TBD vs TBD

Here are some of my quick thoughts on the decider match possibilities, alongside the Aligulac odds for each match.

Bunny vs RagnaroK: Aligulac sees this one as being extremely close, with Bunny having a 55% chance of winning.

This would be a rematch from the RO10 where Bunny won 2-1 by outlasting RagnaroK in turtle-style games. The games reminded me of the 'old' RagnaroK I kept trying to sell people on in TL.net articles, talking about his strong mid-game play that inevitably ran out of steam against late-game masters like Maru. While RagnaroK is much improved all-around, I still find his late-game army control to be a bit wanting. I'll take Bunny to win the rematch.

Bunny vs DongRaeGu: I think DongRaeGu is a similar type of ZvT player as RagnaroK, but his strengths and weaknesses are even more extreme. His mid-game, lair-tech play is as good as any Zerg in the world (yes, including Serral and Reynor), but his late-game army management is very lacking in comparison. However, his mid-game play is good enough that he's been able to beat both Maru and Clem in the last couple of weeks, so that late-game weakness might not even matter. Aligulac says this is effectively a toss-up, but I'll pick DongRaeGu to win due to his recent momentum in ZvT.

Maru vs RagnaroK: A long time ago, I marked RagnaroK as someone to keep an eye out for because he didn't get totally crushed by Maru in the GSL. While he's improved considerably since then, I still think the likely outcome here is another 'honorable defeat' where he impresses the viewers but loses in the end. It all comes down to Maru's turtle style—you either need an S-tier mid-game to swarm over Maru before he can dig in, or you need an S-tier late-game to crack that rock-hard defense. Unfortunately for RagnaroK, he feels like too much of an all-around player to do either. I actually think his best chance might be to try and attack Maru in even earlier phases of the game, going for a mix of Ravager busts or Nydus all-ins. Not surprisingly, Aligulac says Maru has a 84% probability of winning, and I think that's about right.

Maru vs DongRaeGu: Aligulac gives Maru a huge advantage in this match-up as well with a 81% chance to win. However, I think there are two factors that suggest this match is much closer than that. First off, DRG recently went a combined 2-1 record against Clem in the WTL, defeating the absolute best mid-game TvZ player at his own specialty. Second, DRG just defeated Maru in the RO10, which is actually the second straight season where he's defeated Maru in that particular round. Curiously enough, both of those winning series included a very similar type of game: Maru takes the lead as the mech player, but DRG makes a huge comeback by being hyper-aggressive before Maru can fully entrench himself on defense. I have no doubt that Maru would wipe the floor with DongRaeGu if he can get into a proper defensive posture with Ghosts and Thors, but DRG is extremely well equipped to take him down before that happens. I'd still pick Maru to win this match, but it wouldn't be a walk in the park.

Prediction: Maru and Bunny advance.

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