2022 GSL Code S Season 2 - Round of 10

by Wax

On Monday, herO, Maru, and DongRaeGu booked their way into the round-of-6 playoffs from Group A. Now it's time to see which three players will join them from Group B. The five Group B players are very closely matched in terms of skill, and there's still a chance that the 0-2 players could turn things around to clinch a playoff spot.


One major complication is Bunny's form: The Team NV player couldn't immediately return to Korea following DreamHack Valencia due to contracting COVID-19, and was thus forced to remain in Spain until he tested negative on a PCR test (South Korea still has strict regulations for entering the country). This seems to have severely hampered his ability to practice for the last week and a half, so unfortunately he's unlikely to be in good shape.

Group B - Day 2 Preview: RagnaroK, Creator, Bunny, Dark, Cure

Start time: Thursday, Jul 14 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Match #6: Dark vs Creator

Dark looked quite shaky in the round-of-20, only advancing in second place after losing to Zoun. However, he's significantly upped his credibility in the last few weeks, smashing Bunny and Cure in the round-of-10 and then winning DreamHack: Valencia with big playoff wins against herO and Maru. At it stands, he now looks like the #1 candidate to win the Code S championship, or is at least tied with Maru.

Creator also helped his reputation at DreamHack Valencia, though not nearly to the extent of Dark. The Code S Season 1 runner-up was rather unconvincing in various online tournaments following the GSL, seeming to fall back to earth after such an inspiring run. However, he came up with a solid fourth place finish in Valencia, suggesting he was indeed 'for real.' The major caveat was that his only big wins came against the NA trio of Astrea, Scarlett, and Neeb—players who are tricky to rate at an international level. But at least going by my subjective evaluation of Creator's play against Neeb (3-2 win) and Maru (1-3 loss) in Valencia, he seemed like a solid playoff-tier player in GSL Code S.

Alas, I don't think being a solid playoff player is going to be enough for Creator to overcome this next obstacle. Dark's 3-2 win over herO in the DH: Valencia semifinals was one of the most noteworthy results of the tournament, as herO was playing PvZ at a level far above any other player at the time (over 200 Aligulac rating points separated him and 2nd place PvZ player MaxPax). Creator might be a strong PvZ player in his own right, but he's definitely a step below herO—especially in terms of speed and mechanics.

Aligulac gives Dark a comfortable 71% chance of winning, and I'm going to go along with that prediction here. Where I do see an upset opportunity for Creator is in good build order selection based on the relatively new map pool. He can definitely outmuscle Dark in mid-game macro if he gets away with a greedy opener, and some of the new maps could offer him that chance.

Prediction: Dark 2 - 1 Creator

Match #7: Bunny vs Cure

So far, Bunny has been by far the unluckiest player of 2022. A few weeks before he was set to play in Code S Season 1, he suffered a freak injury that put his hand in a cast. While he recovered in time to play his RO20 games, he was unable to practice properly and ended up being eliminated. Now, in Season 2, he has once more been unable to practice for his GSL matches after being stranded in Spain for nearly 10 days while waiting for his bout with COVID-19 to pass. He strikes me as particularly snakebitten since many players tested positive after returning home from Spain, but Bunny was the only one with the cruddy luck of testing positive before his flight.

On the other hand, Cure experienced a different kind of misfortune as he was unable to travel to Valencia at all due to travel restrictions for older Korean men who haven't fulfilled their military service. But at least Cure was able to stay home and practice freely, which gives him a leg up in this match. Under normal circumstances, I'd say these two would be fairly evenly matched—besides Maru, there's not a huge difference in the TvT ability of Code S-class players, and they're all able to take series off each other on a given day (Cure has a 55% chance of winning according to Aligulac). While I can't say exactly how much 10 days of rust will affect Bunny, it's enough of a disadvantage for me to give Cure the nod in terms of making a match prediction.

Prediction: Cure 2 - 0 Bunny

Match #8: Dark vs RagnaroK

If it wasn't for Creator, I'd say RagnaroK was the player who improved his stock the most in 2021. After years of trying to sell TL.net readers on his potential and finding silver linings in his defeats to stronger players, I finally saw my faith in RagnaroK repaid as he made a great top five run in Code S Season 1. It's been smooth sailing so far in Season 2, as RagnaroK topped his RO20 group with wins over both Cure and Trap—both players you would have said were considerably better than him just six months ago. The Alpha X Zerg really seems to have figured out the optimal way to play Code S, bringing devious cheeses in some games, and using the threat of those cheeses to play a strong macro style in other games.

Even in ZvZ, a match-up where he expressed a lack of confidence in the past, RagnaroK seems to have improved considerably. That's why I was rather surprised by his very one-sided 0-3 loss to Elazer at DreamHack Valencia RO16. At least going by the eye test in his various WTL and GSL matches, RagnaroK seemed like a very good, if not excellent, ZvZ player. But perhaps, as the expression goes, there are 'levels to this s***' that aren't obvious to viewers like me. As if to demonstrate the point, Elazer followed his 3-0 win over RagnaroK with a 0-3 loss to Dark where it didn't seem like he was close to competing.

While the A > B, B > C, thus A > C logic is not a very reliable way to predict StarCraft II matches, I can't get the visceral impact of those one-sided DreamHack matches out of my mind. I have to pick Dark here. The more cold-hearted Aligulac machine agrees as well, giving Dark a 70% chance of winning.

Prediction: Dark 2 - 0 RagnaroK

Match #9: Creator vs Cure

This is the hardest match for me to predict on Day 2. Since winning Code S Season 3 in October of 2021, Cure has been on a slow downward trajectory. Beating up on mid-tier players in online events has kept his Aligulac rating afloat, but he's struggled in every offline event in 2022. He dropped out of the RO24 of IEM Katowice, RO20 of Code S Season 1, and barely got out of the RO20 in Code S Season 2 (winning 2-1 vs Trap in his group decider match). Now, with a 0-2 record, he's on the verge of another group stage elimination. It's really looking like Cure's one championship season was an extreme outlier, and he's never truly shaken off his curse as a player who performs very differently in online and offline events.

On the other hand, it's starting to feel like Creator could be the opposite type of player. Sure, we saw the first glimpses of his late-career revival in smaller online events, but he really took things to the next level by winning match after big match to finish second place in Code S Season 1. Now that he's followed that up with a top four run at DH Valencia—earned with a calm, come-from-behind victory against Neeb in game five of the quarterfinals—it doesn't sound totally crazy to call him a big match player. Even Creator himself has talked about how he's made a lot of progress in making sure he doesn't get so nervous for big games. Of course, he's still an emotional player, capable of popping off like no one else when he wins, or damaging the arena equipment when he loses. But at least for the portion of the game where the outcome is still being decided, Creator has gotten much better at keeping his calm and playing to the best of his abilities.

While Cure has definitely come down from his peak, it's been more of a slow, steady fall off than a precipitous nose dive. Considering that his TvP was the best in the world at his peak, it's still quite formidable at this point in time. Thus, it's not too surprising to me that Aligulac gives him a 69% chance of winning the match. On the other hand, I think that overstates his strength to some extent, given the online/offline differences stated above. That's really the key for me here: Cure may be the 'objectively' stronger player, but Creator has won far more important, high-pressure matches in 2022. Even if he's 0-3 headed into this match, I think he'll pull out a win and hope he can advance on tie-breakers.

Prediction: Creator 2 - 1 Cure

Match #10: Bunny vs RagnaroK

Similar to Bunny vs Cure, this match would have been very even under normal circumstances with Bunny having a 51% chance to win according to the Aligulac formula. Both players are very good, mid-high tier macro players, and can basically beat anyone but the absolute top players in straight-up play. Unfortunately, the lack of preparation time is especially damaging for Bunny here, as RagnaroK is someone who knows how to make the best of the GSL format. Whether it's proxy-Hatcheries or pool-first openers, he really likes to play mind-games with his openers. This isn't necessarily in order to all-in—he just wants to mess with his opponent in the early game, even though his preference is to eventually play a macro game.

One thing to note is that Bunny is quite good at two-base all-in pushes, and he's had decent success deploying them against elite Zergs like Rogue or Reynor. Even though RagnaroK is probably a player Bunny would try to face 'honorably' in a normal scenario, it might be wise to try and cheese him out here. No, he won't have time to prepare anything particularly new or creative, but even a strong two-base push from his existing bag of tricks could be a lifesaver here.

Prediction: RagnaroK 2 -1 Bunny

Final Standings Prediction:

1. Dark
   
2. RagnaroK
   
3. Bunny
   
4. Cure
   
5. Creator

Amusingly enough, if the games go according to my predictions, Bunny would still advance based on map-score differential. While I highly doubt my predictions will be exactly correct, it does seem like there's a decent chance we'll have a tight race for playoff qualification where map score will make the final difference.

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