by Waxangel

With the Round 3 playoffs over, it's time to look back on what we learned. Or maybe we didn't learn anything. Whatever.

SK Telecom Show Up Five Months Late

Finally, SK Telecom T1 played like the team they were supposed to be. They dominated the Round 3 group stage with a 6-1 (+14 in maps) record, the best of any team had achieved in the three rounds. Entering the playoffs with a direct seed into the finals, SKT went on to take an easy 4-2 win against CJ to clinch the Round 3 championship. Even when Bbyong took two games to tie the score 2-2, SKT hardly looked troubled. CJ had been forced to use all their best players early, while SKT still had two ace class players left in the wings. The results now match the projections on paper: SKT is by far the best team in Proleague.

Why did it take them so long to live up to expectations? When SKT added new signings Soulkey and Classic to their existing core of Rain, PartinG and soO, it wasn't an exaggeration to say they had assembled the most powerful team in StarCraft 2 history. Yet, their first two rounds were full of disappointments. They ended the Round 1 group stage with a mere 5-2 (+6 in maps) record – far below what their roster should have been capable of. The round then ended in embarrassment for SKT, as they were all-killed by Zest in the playoffs.

SKT's farcical Round 1 performance did not lead to a better showing Round 2. Instead, SKT somehow played even worse. Going 3-4 and missing the playoffs entirely, the team of champions suffered utter humiliation.

Clearly, something major happened between Rounds 2 and 3 to snap SKT out of their dazed state. The answer might be as simple as SKT being so shamed by Round 2, they finally found the motivation to wake the f*** up. Perhaps there were some other motivators as well: SKT conspicuously announced the releases of Journey, Sacsri, and coach HyuK between Rounds 2 and 3. On one hand, it might just have been some routine cost-cutting. On the other hand, it could have been the front office telling the team that they weren't afraid to make heads fly if the results didn't start getting better immediately.

In any case, SKT is now all the stronger for having survived a minor crisis. Not only are they dominating in Proleague, but they're killing it Code S as well. Seven SKT players qualified for Code S Season 2, and all seven have survived to see the Ro16. With even bench players like Paralyze and Dark showing they are Code S Ro16 quality, no team looks readier for the Bo7 season playoffs than SKT.

The only worry for SKT is that things are going a little too perfectly. Anyone who's followed traditional sports knows that "Are they peaking too early?" is a narrative that gets thrown around all the time, but it's a valid question for SKT. They might look extremely strong now, but there's still one more round and the season playoffs left to play. If the lesson of Round 2 sticks with them until then, the Proleague title is as sure are theirs. If not, and they find themselves lapsing once more... ...well, at least the viewers will get a more entertaining title race.

Oh, CJ Entus Showed Up, Too

Though not quite on the SKT scale, CJ Entus also came into the season with high expectations. Alongside Jin Air and KT Rolster, they were supposed to just behind SK Telecom in the title race. Like SKT, CJ saw their season turn very sour in rounds 1 and 2. Even though ace Protoss herO turned out to be an even better player than expected, none of CJ's other players stepped up to provide viable support for herO. Hydra, Bunny, and Sora – players who had shown promise in individual leagues – all struggled to perform at even an adequate level, leaving CJ to finish Round 1 with a dreadful 2-5 record.

With their third place finish in Round 2 and second place finish in Round 3, we can say CJ is finally where they should be. They may not look like true contenders in a league that includes SKT, but that's no different from any other team? At least CJ look to be closely matched against Jin Air and KT Rolster.

Unlike SKT, the team has come together in a very different way from what we predicted at the onset of the season. The question for CJ was always about who they'd have to back herO up, and they've come up with a rather unexpected answer. Sora and Hydra were the two most hyped players ahead of the season, but Sora has ended up being relegated to the bench while Hydra has been "okay" at best. Instead, Bbyong has come out of nowhere to give CJ a legit 1-2 punch capable of challenging anyone in Proleague. At one point in his career, Bbyong seemed to have hit his ceiling as a good-but-not-great Terran player. But a 10-2 in record in Round 3 (playoffs + group stage) and wins over the likes of PartinG, Zest, and Soulkey, he has to be considered one of the top Terrans in the world at the moment.

CJ have struggled to find consistent third and fourth players to back up herO and Bbyong, but the bench has done a decent job filling those spots by committee. The situation with the CJ bench almost resembles that of the old MVP teams in GSTL, where you expected the bench to eke out wins even if you never knew exactly who would be stepping up on a given day. Combined with the duo of herO and Bbyong, CJ would have a championship-class formula – if they weren't living in SKT's shadow.

Who Will Make The Season Playoffs?

The regular season has given way to plenty of small upsets in the short term, but in the big picture it looks like we're headed toward a predictable KT - SKT - Jin Air - CJ playoffs (Liquipedia believes that KT and SKT are mathematically confirmed).

The problem for Samsung, MVP, and IM's playoff campaigns is that it's not enough that they play well or that CJ play poorly – both need to happen at the same time. In fifth place Samsung's case, they'd need to finish four or five places above CJ in the Round 4 group stage to make up for their 31 point deficit. Now, that actually happened before in Round 1, but that was when Samsung was playing at their very best, and CJ were playing at their very worst. Even winning the Round 4 playoffs wouldn't 100% guarantee a playoff spot for Samsung if CJ managed to finish the group stage in a high enough position.

Short story for Samsung: Play your very best, hope CJ suffer an epic collapse, and pray. And what of MVP and IM, who are 50+ points behind CJ? We suppose they'll have to pray even harder.