Whoops, looks like we can't do math! As it turns out, KT Rolster is not yet guaranteed a playoff spot, and only SK Telecom is completely safe. KT, CJ, Jin Air, Samsung, and IM all have a chance of making it into the playoffs.
In an odd twist of fate, it will be the two eliminated teams in MVP and Prime who decide the fates of others. Though Prime and MVP are not be able to reach the playoffs, they still have much to play for as they look to avoid last place finishes. Let's look at the matches in the final week of Round 3:
Round 3 Standings
1.
SKT*
6-1
20-6
+14
2.
KT
4-2
13-11
+2
3.
CJ Entus
3-3
13-11
+2
4.
Jin Air
3-3
12-12
+0
5.
Samsung
3-3
11-13
-2
6.
IM
3-4
14-13
+1
7.
Prime
1-4
5-13
-8
8.
MVP
1-4
5-14
-9
Teams that clinched playoff spots in bold. *SKT clinched first place.
If there's any sign that Team MVP isn't going into these last couple of matches with full effort, it's that ace Zerg DongRaeGu is missing from the line-up. However, it might not be something to read too deeply into, as MVP has benched DRG on occasion. Taking his place will be Sniper and hyvaa, who make their first appearances this round.
Rare Sightings: Sniper and hyvaa aren't the only players getting a surprise run out in the final week. KT Rolster are finally giving Sleep a chance to play, while CJ Entus will field GuMiho for the first time in Round 3. Finally, TerrOr will make his first appearance for Prime since Round 1.
Mercenary Watch: IM has no games left to play, making this week's mercenary watch a bore. With Prime leaving Leenock out of their line-up, we have our first mercenary-free week of Proleague in a long time.
As karmic retribution for some terrible crime he committed in a previous life, Choya gets to play both Flash and Maru.
Race Breakdown: 12 Protoss, 11 Terrans, and 9 Zergs are in action this week. What an even breakdown!
Round 3 Playoff Picture
by Waxangel
KT Rolster are heavily favored to advance to the playoffs, while IM has a prayer of a chance. Meanwhile, CJ, Jin Air, and Samsung are locked in a fierce fight in the middle. We've gone ahead broken down the playoff advancement scenarios in the final week of games. We've divided the scenarios into two big groups, depending on whether or not KT Rolster advance.
KT Rolster advances
If KT Rolster wins vs Prime, then they're in the playoffs. Even if KT Rolster lose, they're probably still in the playoffs (we'll explain the exception further below). As long as KT Rolster are in, that leaves CJ, Jin Air, Samsung, and IM to fight for the remaining two spots with the following outcomes possible:
CJ and Jin Air win, Samsung loses: CJ and Jin Air advance to the playoffs.
CJ and Samsung win, Jin Air loses: CJ and Samsung advance to the playoffs.
Jin Air and Samsung win, CJ loses: Jin Air and Samsung advance to the playoffs.
CJ wins, Samsung and JinAir lose: CJ and IM advance to the playoffs.
CJ, Jin Air, and Samsung win: CJ Entus advances to the playoffs. Jin Air also advances to the playoffs except in the following scenario:
Jin Air wins 3-2, Samsung wins 3-0: In this case, Jin Air and Samsung will be tied at 4-3 and +1 in maps. A best-of-one tiebreaker ace-match will be played to decide which team advances to the playoffs.
Jin Air wins, CJ and Samsung lose: Jin Air advances to the playoffs. CJ's fate depends on the following scenarios:
CJ loses 2-3: CJ and IM will be tied at 3-4 and +1 in maps. A best-of-one tiebreaker ace-match will be played to decide which team advances to the playoffs.
CJ loses by 1-3 or 0-3: IM advances to the playoffs.
Samsung wins, CJ and Jin Air lose: Samsung advances to the playoffs. The possibilities for CJ are identical to the "Jin Air wins, CJ and Samsung lose" scenario described above.
CJ, Jin Air, and Samsung lose: IM advances to the playoffs. CJ also advances to the playoffs except in the following scenario:
CJ loses 0-3, Jin Air loses 2-3: CJ and Jin Air will be tied at 3-4 and -1 in maps. A best-of-one tiebreaker ace-match will be played to decide which team advances to the playoffs.
Scenarios in which KT Rolster can be eliminated
In the case that KT Rolster loses to Prime AND CJ, Jin Air, and Samsung all win their matches, things can get scary for KT.
CJ, Samsung, and Jin Air win AND KT Rolster lose: This opens up the following bag of worms for KT Rolster, while IM are eliminated as collateral damage.
KT lose 0-3 and Samsung win 3-1 or better: CJ, Jin Air, and Samsung advance to the playoffs. KT is eliminated.
KT lose 0-3 and Samsung win 3-2: CJ and Jin Air advance to the playoffs. KT and Samsung are tied and play a best-of-one tiebreaker for the last playoff spot.
KT Rolster lose 1-3 and Samsung win 3-1: Same as above.
KT Rolster lose 2-3 and Samsung win 3-0: Same as above. unless:
Jin Air win 3-2: CJ advances to the playoffs. KT, Samsung, and Jin Air are tied and play a series of best-of-one round robins as a tiebreaker.
The scenarios listed above are only for playoff advancement. There are many more scenarios regarding final placement and playoff seeding that are too complex to describe in full. It will suffice to say that ranks #2 through #8 are wide open to change, and there's a decent chance that we'll see at least one tie-breaker played to determine final placement and/or playoff seeding.
woah, didn't even notice KT could be eliminated. I suppose the extreme unlikeliness allowed me to blot it out of my mind. :p
Also I was under the impression that IM has a warning from Squirtle screwing up against PartinG earlier in the round. Which means they cannot tie with CJ for the playoff-deciding ace match. Is that not correct?
On May 11 2014 09:06 FrostedMiniWheats wrote: woah, didn't even notice KT could be eliminated. I suppose the extreme unlikeliness allowed me to blot it out of my mind. :p
Also I was under the impression that IM has a warning from Squirtle screwing up against PartinG earlier in the round. Which means they cannot tie with CJ for the playoff-deciding ace match. Is that not correct?
they got a warning, but you need two warnings to lose mapscore
Damn that's a lot scenarios. Seriously hoping for KT to get knocked out just so that we can get the craziest of scenarios, or even just see IM get in just because that'd be crazy too.
SKT securing first place makes me feel so good, they've done it with hard work and I couldn't be more happy for them! Poor IM never really doing too bad but pretty much always ending up 3-4 and never making playoffs. Hopefully they'll get some luck next round.
On May 11 2014 09:06 FrostedMiniWheats wrote: woah, didn't even notice KT could be eliminated. I suppose the extreme unlikeliness allowed me to blot it out of my mind. :p
Also I was under the impression that IM has a warning from Squirtle screwing up against PartinG earlier in the round. Which means they cannot tie with CJ for the playoff-deciding ace match. Is that not correct?
they got a warning, but you need two warnings to lose mapscore
But isn't it the case that just having a warning causes you to lose the tie when you have equal mapscore? (In round 1 SKT automatically got 3rd because they had a warning despite being tied with Samsung at +6 maps.)
On May 11 2014 10:11 banjoetheredskin wrote: CJ please :S this is going to be so much fun to watch :DD
This... KT losing to Prime right now is... kinda difficult to picture.
Hey, both Creator and MarineKing have a very solid chance to win (I would even say Creator is favored against Sleep). And it's not impossible for SalvatioN and Choya to steal at least one win, maybe with a weird cheese or two.
it all comes back to the (imo) winnable match against CJ for IM. Dropping that 0-3 put their playoff hopes almost out of reach. Funny how this round has normalized to how everyone expected it to be. SKT dominating, KT being really solid, and the four middle teams being really close, with MVP and Prime bringing up the rear
On May 11 2014 12:31 Yorkie wrote: it all comes back to the (imo) winnable match against CJ for IM. Dropping that 0-3 put their playoff hopes almost out of reach. Funny how this round has normalized to how everyone expected it to be. SKT dominating, KT being really solid, and the four middle teams being really close, with MVP and Prime bringing up the rear
Or blowing what should have been a 3-0 stomp by sending Yonghwa against MVP. >_>
IM is out (since they finished 3-4 and there's now at least 4 4-win teams).
Jin Air is in no matter what, they could finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th depending on Tuesday's games
Samsung, KT and CJ are fighting for the last two spots. KT will almost certainly make it (they'd have to lose to Prime), so if we assume that, it's really Samsung and CJ fighting for the last spot. If CJ wins its match, CJ is in and Samsung is out (they will both be 4-3 and CJ will have a better indicator). If CJ loses, Samsung is at 4-3 in and CJ is out at 3-4.
IM is out (since they finished 3-4 and there's now at least 4 4-win teams).
Jin Air is in no matter what, they could finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th depending on Tuesday's games
Samsung, KT and CJ are fighting for the last two spots. KT will almost certainly make it (they'd have to lose to Prime), so if we assume that, it's really Samsung and CJ fighting for the last spot. If CJ wins its match, CJ is in and Samsung is out (they will both be 4-3 and CJ will have a better indicator). If CJ loses, Samsung is at 4-3 in and CJ is out at 3-4.
On May 12 2014 08:40 Waxangel wrote: damn, I thought there'd be at least one tie but it doesn't look that likely. Can I at least get DRG vs MKP in a deathmatch to avoid last place ?
it would end up being something stupid like Keen vs. Creator
On May 12 2014 08:40 Waxangel wrote: damn, I thought there'd be at least one tie but it doesn't look that likely. Can I at least get DRG vs MKP in a deathmatch to avoid last place ?
it would end up being something stupid like Keen vs. Creator
On May 12 2014 08:40 Waxangel wrote: damn, I thought there'd be at least one tie but it doesn't look that likely. Can I at least get DRG vs MKP in a deathmatch to avoid last place ?
it would end up being something stupid like Keen vs. Creator
Sniper vs Terror.
Ahaha, would love the read twitch's chat if this happened.
On May 11 2014 09:06 FrostedMiniWheats wrote: woah, didn't even notice KT could be eliminated. I suppose the extreme unlikeliness allowed me to blot it out of my mind. :p
Also I was under the impression that IM has a warning from Squirtle screwing up against PartinG earlier in the round. Which means they cannot tie with CJ for the playoff-deciding ace match. Is that not correct?
they got a warning, but you need two warnings to lose mapscore
I suppose the warning is when Flash lashed out on the ref ? Or is it another thing.
Damn i thought SKT and KT were in no matter what. I need to look at that PRIME lineup see if a 3-0 is possible or not. They better destroy RIME.
Wait.. After sunday's result. Can KT advandce even if they 3-2 or 3-1 ? Or do we need 3-0 ?
On May 11 2014 09:06 FrostedMiniWheats wrote: woah, didn't even notice KT could be eliminated. I suppose the extreme unlikeliness allowed me to blot it out of my mind. :p
Also I was under the impression that IM has a warning from Squirtle screwing up against PartinG earlier in the round. Which means they cannot tie with CJ for the playoff-deciding ace match. Is that not correct?
they got a warning, but you need two warnings to lose mapscore
I suppose the warning is when Flash lashed out on the ref ? Or is it another thing.
Damn i thought SKT and KT were in no matter what. I need to look at that PRIME lineup see if a 3-0 is possible or not. They better destroy RIME.
Wait.. After sunday's result. Can KT advandce even if they 3-2 or 3-1 ? Or do we need 3-0 ?
As long as KT wins they will advance to the playoffs in second place with 5-2.
What happened to MarinkingPrime ? This guy used to be a legend 3/4 years ago, he was feared by everyone and always would create new build orders. Now he is a no match for pretty much every players in the proleague... or maybe the WoL players were really bad and Proleague showed the real skill... cant understand
He just came back to sc2 at the beginning of round 2 and honestly hes not doing that bad. Hes currently 6-8 in proleague. 1-1 against terran | 4-2 against Zerg | 1-5 against Toss.. Round 2 notable wins. |soO|Dream|RorO|True Round 3 notable wins. |Sora|Shine(MVP) but I only added him because Sora looked so alone Of course hes not the dominating player you remember him has, but I have High hopes he will get back to his former glory. Given enough time.
On May 15 2014 01:03 bibilisk wrote: What happened to MarinkingPrime ? This guy used to be a legend 3/4 years ago, he was feared by everyone and always would create new build orders. Now he is a no match for pretty much every players in the proleague... or maybe the WoL players were really bad and Proleague showed the real skill... cant understand
He just came back and he is playing really good player in a format that he never played before. Although he is not doing badly. There are players in Proleague that don't have ANY wins (hi Terror) so his record is average.
EPT
Sniper < King Sejong Station LE > 
aLive < Merry Go Round LE > 
Billowy < Maze > 
Protoss, 11 
Terrans, and 9 
Zergs are in action this week. What an even breakdown!![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/HawaiianPig/SPL/SPLstaricon.png)
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