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On January 14 2013 19:00 vthree wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 18:54 TheBB wrote:On January 14 2013 18:45 vthree wrote:On January 14 2013 18:40 Thurken wrote:On January 14 2013 18:37 vthree wrote:On January 14 2013 18:34 Thurken wrote:On January 14 2013 18:30 Waxangel wrote:On January 14 2013 18:29 Thurken wrote:On January 14 2013 18:21 Waxangel wrote:
how is stephano so lucky?!
HuK made it so Sniper took him as the default pick, and then I guess HyuN didn't want to take Stephano because of the old TSL connection? Why do you say he is so lucky? If you have the opportunity to pick Stephano or Huk. To choose between an always volatile ZvZ or a more reliable ZvP, you pick HuK and the ZvP. About Hyun, I don't see why an old connection would help Stephano. On the other hand they trained together and their match were always close. I understand he picks someone else if he feels strong against him. Getting DRG, maybe top2 in the world right now is not being lucky. It's not bad but it's not being in Losira's or Roro's position. he's lucky that HuK made it for one  it's extremely unlikely BOTH sniper and HyuN pass him over without huk Look at Huk, or BBongBBong's group. It wouldn't change a thing for Stephano: one strong zerg, and two hard but beatable opponents Kind of. But the order of play matters. Stephano gets to play a T first. So he cannot get knocked out by 2 ZvZs (it would have been possible if he was in HuK or B4's position). I think it is debatable and it depends. Here I doubt DRG would lose one serie for example. With the GSL format, I'd rather play against the hardest opponent first. Otherwise, it may be like WCS where Stephano was 3-2 versus HerO but was eliminated. No, but it still opens up for the possibility. And why open with the hardest opponent first? It is always better to win your first match in the GSL format. Maybe TheBB could crunch the numbers for if it was DRG v Stephano, Bogus v Hack setup. Sure thing. According to "me," he's still favoured to get out in second place, but not nearly by as much. The first round pairings can have a pretty big impact. + Show Spoiler [Group H] ++ Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%
Probability of each pair advancing
INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 37.90% 29.77% 17.66% 14.66%
Hack: 33.18% 32.25% 19.45% 15.12%
Stephano: 25.86% 32.02% 34.94% 7.18%
DongRaeGu: 3.05% 5.96% 27.95% 63.04%
Probability of each pair advancing
INnoVat Hack Stephan DongRae
INnoVation: 1.05% 1.37% 12.24%
Hack: 1.54% 1.36% 12.21%
Stephano: 1.72% 1.97% 3.49%
DongRaeGu: 14.40% 16.44% 32.20% Thanks. Yes, it makes sense that it would only make a slight difference because DRG is big favorites over Hack and Bogus. So it is Stephano's most likely path would be beating Bogus and Hack anyways. But it does make a difference. I think in cases where the racial strength of a player is very skewed (like previous JYP vZ, vT etc), and you have 2-3 players like that in one group. Then you will see huge variations due to order.
Thank you for the stats.
I'll also add the psychological side, but you may of course disagree.
Let's say you and your opponent are about equal.
If you win first match. And then lose in the winning serie, while your first opponent win in the loser's serie. When you face him again, I think he has a psychological advantage, because he is on a winning vibe but especially because he has adapted your play since you adapt better when you lose than when you win.
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Bomber and Gumiho tag-team Sniper out of Code S, then Bomber goes on a killing spree meeting Stephano in the finals. One can dream...
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On January 14 2013 18:40 TheBB wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Group A] ++ Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Creator: 33.78% 32.28% 23.16% 10.78%
ByuL: 34.79% 38.73% 22.03% 4.45%
Symbol: 29.07% 25.57% 33.81% 11.54%
Life: 2.36% 3.41% 21.00% 73.22%
Probability of each pair advancing
Creator ByuL Symbol Life
Creator: 0.12% 1.64% 9.03%
ByuL: 0.41% 0.77% 3.27%
Symbol: 1.57% 1.26% 8.70%
Life: 21.17% 20.64% 31.41% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Leenock: 20.50% 22.38% 27.23% 29.89%
BaBy: 22.05% 22.84% 26.35% 28.75%
Curious: 30.21% 27.29% 22.31% 20.19%
MC: 27.24% 27.49% 24.11% 21.17%
Probability of each pair advancing
Leenock BaBy Curious MC
Leenock: 9.76% 9.70% 10.43%
BaBy: 9.83% 8.06% 10.86%
Curious: 8.45% 8.92% 2.82%
MC: 8.94% 7.67% 4.55% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Sniper: 1.65% 30.76% 32.83% 34.76%
HuK: 74.67% 22.47% 1.96% 0.89%
Bomber: 4.95% 31.85% 39.98% 23.22%
GuMiho: 18.72% 14.91% 25.23% 41.13%
Probability of each pair advancing
Sniper HuK Bomber GuMiho
Sniper: 1.24% 16.54% 16.99%
HuK: 0.12% 0.22% 0.55%
Bomber: 14.92% 0.61% 7.69%
GuMiho: 17.80% 0.12% 23.22% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
HyuN: 9.11% 13.39% 30.10% 47.41%
BBoongBBoong: 26.64% 33.03% 24.49% 15.85%
YoDa: 49.57% 29.79% 12.30% 8.35%
Squirtle: 14.69% 23.79% 33.12% 28.40%
Probability of each pair advancing
HyuN BBoongB YoDa Squirtl
HyuN: 14.13% 7.29% 25.99%
BBoongBBoong: 7.74% 2.51% 5.60%
YoDa: 5.07% 1.75% 1.52%
Squirtle: 17.29% 8.61% 2.50% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ryung: 16.06% 44.84% 27.21% 11.90%
LosirA: 9.65% 27.82% 45.50% 17.03%
Byun: 70.85% 22.34% 4.30% 2.51%
PartinG: 3.44% 5.01% 22.99% 68.56%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ryung LosirA Byun PartinG
Ryung: 1.32% 1.15% 9.42%
LosirA: 3.28% 1.89% 11.86%
Byun: 0.33% 0.48% 1.70%
PartinG: 23.61% 43.70% 1.26% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MarineKing: 16.35% 23.73% 30.48% 29.45%
RorO: 21.54% 23.00% 26.96% 28.50%
Keen: 32.24% 25.78% 20.69% 21.29%
Mvp: 29.87% 27.50% 21.87% 20.76%
Probability of each pair advancing
MarineK RorO Keen Mvp
MarineKing: 6.55% 11.73% 11.16%
RorO: 14.89% 5.73% 7.88%
Keen: 7.43% 11.04% 2.83%
Mvp: 8.16% 9.37% 3.23% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Soulkey: 17.40% 30.73% 30.88% 20.99%
Noblesse: 17.37% 30.69% 31.74% 20.20%
NesTea: 58.85% 27.52% 8.46% 5.17%
TaeJa: 6.38% 11.07% 28.91% 53.64%
Probability of each pair advancing
Soulkey Nobless NesTea TaeJa
Soulkey: 4.79% 2.20% 14.01%
Noblesse: 5.37% 2.16% 12.67%
NesTea: 1.47% 1.46% 2.24%
TaeJa: 24.04% 25.49% 4.10% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%
Probability of each pair advancing
INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58% So, in short: A: Life, Symbol B: This one is completely open C: Gumiho, Sniper and Bomber all have good chances D: Hyun, Squirtle E: Parting, Losira F: Roro, MarineKing G: Taeja first, Noblesse or Soulkey second H: DRG, Stephano
Im curious, how do you get these details??
Also if IMMvp wins, my heart, mind, soul and dick will explode from happiness XD
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my predictions atm:
Creator/Life
Leenock/Curious (codeS reader!)
Gumiho/Bomber
Squirtle/Hyun (possibly Yoda "upset")
Parting/Ryung (or Ryung/Byun if Byun goes uber TvP again and Parting is lacking storm)
MVP/Marineking (MKP aint gonna beat MVP ever in gsl... poor him)
Taeja/whoever brings his best games (possibly Taeja out if he doesnt bring his top-form like last season  )
DRG/Stephano; Bogus if he remains innovator and comes up with 4 different timing attacks to beat the Z.
Im prolly only gonna get half of the right and most will be in the wrong order, but i like giving my predictions!
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Poor Huk.
Guess he is going back to Code A.
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WHY IS MARINEKING IN MVP'S GROUP AGAIN?!?!?!
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Group D, the group of the lawless!
Also, cya HuK.
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Happy with the groups that Leenock and Gumiho got. Leenock should be a certainty and it's time Gumi finally made it to another round of 16. Sniper will be tough, but Huk is basically a free win and he's really had Bomber's number in recent months.
Group of death for me is definitely A.
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On January 14 2013 19:14 xAshCanaaNx wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 18:40 TheBB wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Group A] ++ Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Creator: 33.78% 32.28% 23.16% 10.78%
ByuL: 34.79% 38.73% 22.03% 4.45%
Symbol: 29.07% 25.57% 33.81% 11.54%
Life: 2.36% 3.41% 21.00% 73.22%
Probability of each pair advancing
Creator ByuL Symbol Life
Creator: 0.12% 1.64% 9.03%
ByuL: 0.41% 0.77% 3.27%
Symbol: 1.57% 1.26% 8.70%
Life: 21.17% 20.64% 31.41% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Leenock: 20.50% 22.38% 27.23% 29.89%
BaBy: 22.05% 22.84% 26.35% 28.75%
Curious: 30.21% 27.29% 22.31% 20.19%
MC: 27.24% 27.49% 24.11% 21.17%
Probability of each pair advancing
Leenock BaBy Curious MC
Leenock: 9.76% 9.70% 10.43%
BaBy: 9.83% 8.06% 10.86%
Curious: 8.45% 8.92% 2.82%
MC: 8.94% 7.67% 4.55% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Sniper: 1.65% 30.76% 32.83% 34.76%
HuK: 74.67% 22.47% 1.96% 0.89%
Bomber: 4.95% 31.85% 39.98% 23.22%
GuMiho: 18.72% 14.91% 25.23% 41.13%
Probability of each pair advancing
Sniper HuK Bomber GuMiho
Sniper: 1.24% 16.54% 16.99%
HuK: 0.12% 0.22% 0.55%
Bomber: 14.92% 0.61% 7.69%
GuMiho: 17.80% 0.12% 23.22% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
HyuN: 9.11% 13.39% 30.10% 47.41%
BBoongBBoong: 26.64% 33.03% 24.49% 15.85%
YoDa: 49.57% 29.79% 12.30% 8.35%
Squirtle: 14.69% 23.79% 33.12% 28.40%
Probability of each pair advancing
HyuN BBoongB YoDa Squirtl
HyuN: 14.13% 7.29% 25.99%
BBoongBBoong: 7.74% 2.51% 5.60%
YoDa: 5.07% 1.75% 1.52%
Squirtle: 17.29% 8.61% 2.50% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ryung: 16.06% 44.84% 27.21% 11.90%
LosirA: 9.65% 27.82% 45.50% 17.03%
Byun: 70.85% 22.34% 4.30% 2.51%
PartinG: 3.44% 5.01% 22.99% 68.56%
Probability of each pair advancing
Ryung LosirA Byun PartinG
Ryung: 1.32% 1.15% 9.42%
LosirA: 3.28% 1.89% 11.86%
Byun: 0.33% 0.48% 1.70%
PartinG: 23.61% 43.70% 1.26% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MarineKing: 16.35% 23.73% 30.48% 29.45%
RorO: 21.54% 23.00% 26.96% 28.50%
Keen: 32.24% 25.78% 20.69% 21.29%
Mvp: 29.87% 27.50% 21.87% 20.76%
Probability of each pair advancing
MarineK RorO Keen Mvp
MarineKing: 6.55% 11.73% 11.16%
RorO: 14.89% 5.73% 7.88%
Keen: 7.43% 11.04% 2.83%
Mvp: 8.16% 9.37% 3.23% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Soulkey: 17.40% 30.73% 30.88% 20.99%
Noblesse: 17.37% 30.69% 31.74% 20.20%
NesTea: 58.85% 27.52% 8.46% 5.17%
TaeJa: 6.38% 11.07% 28.91% 53.64%
Probability of each pair advancing
Soulkey Nobless NesTea TaeJa
Soulkey: 4.79% 2.20% 14.01%
Noblesse: 5.37% 2.16% 12.67%
NesTea: 1.47% 1.46% 2.24%
TaeJa: 24.04% 25.49% 4.10% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%
Probability of each pair advancing
INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58% So, in short: A: Life, Symbol B: This one is completely open C: Gumiho, Sniper and Bomber all have good chances D: Hyun, Squirtle E: Parting, Losira F: Roro, MarineKing G: Taeja first, Noblesse or Soulkey second H: DRG, Stephano Im curious, how do you get these details?? Also if IMMvp wins, my heart, mind, soul and dick will explode from happiness XD
http://aligulac.com/periods/74/
Awesome website made by him.
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huK got a good group, he's got a chance
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This is crazy, every group looks like a group of death.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
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On January 14 2013 19:08 Thurken wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 19:00 vthree wrote:On January 14 2013 18:54 TheBB wrote:On January 14 2013 18:45 vthree wrote:On January 14 2013 18:40 Thurken wrote:On January 14 2013 18:37 vthree wrote:On January 14 2013 18:34 Thurken wrote:On January 14 2013 18:30 Waxangel wrote:On January 14 2013 18:29 Thurken wrote:On January 14 2013 18:21 Waxangel wrote:
how is stephano so lucky?!
HuK made it so Sniper took him as the default pick, and then I guess HyuN didn't want to take Stephano because of the old TSL connection? Why do you say he is so lucky? If you have the opportunity to pick Stephano or Huk. To choose between an always volatile ZvZ or a more reliable ZvP, you pick HuK and the ZvP. About Hyun, I don't see why an old connection would help Stephano. On the other hand they trained together and their match were always close. I understand he picks someone else if he feels strong against him. Getting DRG, maybe top2 in the world right now is not being lucky. It's not bad but it's not being in Losira's or Roro's position. he's lucky that HuK made it for one it's extremely unlikely BOTH sniper and HyuN pass him over without huk Look at Huk, or BBongBBong's group. It wouldn't change a thing for Stephano: one strong zerg, and two hard but beatable opponents Kind of. But the order of play matters. Stephano gets to play a T first. So he cannot get knocked out by 2 ZvZs (it would have been possible if he was in HuK or B4's position). I think it is debatable and it depends. Here I doubt DRG would lose one serie for example. With the GSL format, I'd rather play against the hardest opponent first. Otherwise, it may be like WCS where Stephano was 3-2 versus HerO but was eliminated. No, but it still opens up for the possibility. And why open with the hardest opponent first? It is always better to win your first match in the GSL format. Maybe TheBB could crunch the numbers for if it was DRG v Stephano, Bogus v Hack setup. Sure thing. According to "me," he's still favoured to get out in second place, but not nearly by as much. The first round pairings can have a pretty big impact. + Show Spoiler [Group H] ++ Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%
Probability of each pair advancing
INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58% Detailed placement probabilities
4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 37.90% 29.77% 17.66% 14.66%
Hack: 33.18% 32.25% 19.45% 15.12%
Stephano: 25.86% 32.02% 34.94% 7.18%
DongRaeGu: 3.05% 5.96% 27.95% 63.04%
Probability of each pair advancing
INnoVat Hack Stephan DongRae
INnoVation: 1.05% 1.37% 12.24%
Hack: 1.54% 1.36% 12.21%
Stephano: 1.72% 1.97% 3.49%
DongRaeGu: 14.40% 16.44% 32.20% Thanks. Yes, it makes sense that it would only make a slight difference because DRG is big favorites over Hack and Bogus. So it is Stephano's most likely path would be beating Bogus and Hack anyways. But it does make a difference. I think in cases where the racial strength of a player is very skewed (like previous JYP vZ, vT etc), and you have 2-3 players like that in one group. Then you will see huge variations due to order. Thank you for the stats. I'll also add the psychological side, but you may of course disagree. Let's say you and your opponent are about equal. If you win first match. And then lose in the winning serie, while your first opponent win in the loser's serie. When you face him again, I think he has a psychological advantage, because he is on a winning vibe but especially because he has adapted your play since you adapt better when you lose than when you win.
I think it works both ways. The winner of the first set can also feel "Well, I beat him the first time, I can do it again.". And I am not sure about the adapting either. If this was the case, we wouldn't have Mvp vs MKP and Rain vs HerO, etc.
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OMG, Huk vs Sniper!!! I totally called this!!! LOL! :p
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392403¤tpage=128#2549
On January 11 2013 02:31 sitromit wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 02:24 eviltomahawk wrote:
Mr. Chae probably did a fist pump upon seeing Huk advance haha. But it would be kinda funny if we got a Huk vs Stephano team-kill in the first round lol.
However, I wish Fantasy advanced, but alas, we'll see that in due time. No, what will happen is Sniper will pick Huk for his group and snipe him! :p
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On January 14 2013 19:05 vthree wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 19:04 CloudMage wrote:HuK Fighting!!!! is it just me or are these groups seriously lacking in Protoss rep lol oh well terran OP zerg OP n all dat  Yeah. Only 5 protosses made it to Code S this season.
Seems like time to get sad zealot club going again..
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4137 Posts
I am very very happy that Stephano has only one zerg opponent. top2 in his group should be a very easy for him.
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...Planet S? Am I the only one that finds it funny that GOM is using the map that was modified/name-changed to promote Proleague's sponsor? Wonder if they'll change it back, or to something else...
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United States97276 Posts
You liar! You told me in PM that Huk was going to win a map vs Sniper
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On January 14 2013 17:40 opterown wrote:
New maps announced:
Whirlwind SE
이카루스 (Icarus?)
Akilon Flats
KeSPA Neo Planet S
Bel'Shir Vestige SE
Returning:
Cloud Kingdom
Daybreak
Source?
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On January 14 2013 19:25 sitromit wrote:OMG, Huk vs Sniper!!! I totally called this!!! LOL! :p http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392403¤tpage=128#2549Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 02:31 sitromit wrote:On January 11 2013 02:24 eviltomahawk wrote:
Mr. Chae probably did a fist pump upon seeing Huk advance haha. But it would be kinda funny if we got a Huk vs Stephano team-kill in the first round lol.
However, I wish Fantasy advanced, but alas, we'll see that in due time. No, what will happen is Sniper will pick Huk for his group and snipe him! :p
Whilst Huk did great getting through the U&D's, he's clearly the worst player in Code S. No surprise to see Sniper pick him.
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EPT
