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Code S Groups Announced - Page 8

Forum Index > SC2 General
530 CommentsPost a Reply
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Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
January 14 2013 09:44 GMT
#141
On January 14 2013 18:43 Caihead wrote:
I don't see Huk making it out of his group -_-

I don't see Huk winning a map unless he pulls off a lucky all in
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
AdrianHealey
Profile Joined January 2011
Belgium480 Posts
January 14 2013 09:44 GMT
#142
Any pictures of the new maps?
I love.
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-14 09:49:06
January 14 2013 09:45 GMT
#143
On January 14 2013 18:40 Thurken wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2013 18:37 vthree wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:34 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:30 Waxangel wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:29 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:21 Waxangel wrote:
how is stephano so lucky?!

HuK made it so Sniper took him as the default pick, and then I guess HyuN didn't want to take Stephano because of the old TSL connection?

Why do you say he is so lucky?
If you have the opportunity to pick Stephano or Huk. To choose between an always volatile ZvZ or a more reliable ZvP, you pick HuK and the ZvP. About Hyun, I don't see why an old connection would help Stephano. On the other hand they trained together and their match were always close. I understand he picks someone else if he feels strong against him.
Getting DRG, maybe top2 in the world right now is not being lucky. It's not bad but it's not being in Losira's or Roro's position.


he's lucky that HuK made it for one

it's extremely unlikely BOTH sniper and HyuN pass him over without huk


Look at Huk, or BBongBBong's group. It wouldn't change a thing for Stephano: one strong zerg, and two hard but beatable opponents


Kind of. But the order of play matters. Stephano gets to play a T first. So he cannot get knocked out by 2 ZvZs (it would have been possible if he was in HuK or B4's position).

I think it is debatable and it depends. Here I doubt DRG would lose one serie for example.
With the GSL format, I'd rather play against the hardest opponent first. Otherwise, it may be like WCS where Stephano was 3-2 versus HerO but was eliminated.


No, but it still opens up for the possibility. And why open with the hardest opponent first? It is always better to win your first match in the GSL format.

Maybe TheBB could crunch the numbers for if it was DRG v Stephano, Bogus v Hack setup.
Incomplet
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United Kingdom1419 Posts
January 14 2013 09:45 GMT
#144
a. life / byul
b. leenock / mc
c. sniper / bomber
d. hyun / yoda
e. parting / ryung
f. mvp / marineking
g. taeja / nestea
h. drg / bogus
Bow down to the sons of Aiur...SKT1_Rain, CreatorPrime, ST_Parting, Liquid_Hero.
Hylirion
Profile Joined March 2012
Netherlands968 Posts
January 14 2013 09:47 GMT
#145
On January 14 2013 18:40 TheBB wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +
Group A

      Life: 94.23%
      Symbol: 45.35%
      Creator: 33.94%
      ByuL: 26.48%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Creator: 33.78% 32.28% 23.16% 10.78%
ByuL: 34.79% 38.73% 22.03% 4.45%
Symbol: 29.07% 25.57% 33.81% 11.54%
Life: 2.36% 3.41% 21.00% 73.22%

Probability of each pair advancing

Creator ByuL Symbol Life
Creator: 0.12% 1.64% 9.03%
ByuL: 0.41% 0.77% 3.27%
Symbol: 1.57% 1.26% 8.70%
Life: 21.17% 20.64% 31.41%


+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +
Group B

      Leenock: 57.12%
      BaBy: 55.11%
      MC: 45.27%
      Curious: 42.51%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Leenock: 20.50% 22.38% 27.23% 29.89%
BaBy: 22.05% 22.84% 26.35% 28.75%
Curious: 30.21% 27.29% 22.31% 20.19%
MC: 27.24% 27.49% 24.11% 21.17%

Probability of each pair advancing

Leenock BaBy Curious MC
Leenock: 9.76% 9.70% 10.43%
BaBy: 9.83% 8.06% 10.86%
Curious: 8.45% 8.92% 2.82%
MC: 8.94% 7.67% 4.55%


+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +
Group C

      Sniper: 67.59%
      GuMiho: 66.37%
      Bomber: 63.19%
      HuK: 2.85%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Sniper: 1.65% 30.76% 32.83% 34.76%
HuK: 74.67% 22.47% 1.96% 0.89%
Bomber: 4.95% 31.85% 39.98% 23.22%
GuMiho: 18.72% 14.91% 25.23% 41.13%

Probability of each pair advancing

Sniper HuK Bomber GuMiho
Sniper: 1.24% 16.54% 16.99%
HuK: 0.12% 0.22% 0.55%
Bomber: 14.92% 0.61% 7.69%
GuMiho: 17.80% 0.12% 23.22%


+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +
Group D

      HyuN: 77.50%
      Squirtle: 61.52%
      BBoongBBoong: 40.34%
      YoDa: 20.64%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
HyuN: 9.11% 13.39% 30.10% 47.41%
BBoongBBoong: 26.64% 33.03% 24.49% 15.85%
YoDa: 49.57% 29.79% 12.30% 8.35%
Squirtle: 14.69% 23.79% 33.12% 28.40%

Probability of each pair advancing

HyuN BBoongB YoDa Squirtl
HyuN: 14.13% 7.29% 25.99%
BBoongBBoong: 7.74% 2.51% 5.60%
YoDa: 5.07% 1.75% 1.52%
Squirtle: 17.29% 8.61% 2.50%


+ Show Spoiler [Group E] +
Group E

      PartinG: 91.55%
      LosirA: 62.53%
      Ryung: 39.10%
      Byun: 6.81%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ryung: 16.06% 44.84% 27.21% 11.90%
LosirA: 9.65% 27.82% 45.50% 17.03%
Byun: 70.85% 22.34% 4.30% 2.51%
PartinG: 3.44% 5.01% 22.99% 68.56%

Probability of each pair advancing

Ryung LosirA Byun PartinG
Ryung: 1.32% 1.15% 9.42%
LosirA: 3.28% 1.89% 11.86%
Byun: 0.33% 0.48% 1.70%
PartinG: 23.61% 43.70% 1.26%


+ Show Spoiler [Group F] +
Group F

      MarineKing: 59.93%
      RorO: 55.46%
      Mvp: 42.63%
      Keen: 41.98%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MarineKing: 16.35% 23.73% 30.48% 29.45%
RorO: 21.54% 23.00% 26.96% 28.50%
Keen: 32.24% 25.78% 20.69% 21.29%
Mvp: 29.87% 27.50% 21.87% 20.76%

Probability of each pair advancing

MarineK RorO Keen Mvp
MarineKing: 6.55% 11.73% 11.16%
RorO: 14.89% 5.73% 7.88%
Keen: 7.43% 11.04% 2.83%
Mvp: 8.16% 9.37% 3.23%


+ Show Spoiler [Group G] +
Group G

      TaeJa: 82.55%
      Noblesse: 51.94%
      Soulkey: 51.87%
      NesTea: 13.63%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Soulkey: 17.40% 30.73% 30.88% 20.99%
Noblesse: 17.37% 30.69% 31.74% 20.20%
NesTea: 58.85% 27.52% 8.46% 5.17%
TaeJa: 6.38% 11.07% 28.91% 53.64%

Probability of each pair advancing

Soulkey Nobless NesTea TaeJa
Soulkey: 4.79% 2.20% 14.01%
Noblesse: 5.37% 2.16% 12.67%
NesTea: 1.47% 1.46% 2.24%
TaeJa: 24.04% 25.49% 4.10%


+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      DongRaeGu: 85.02%
      Stephano: 61.67%
      INnoVation: 27.56%
      Hack: 25.75%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%

Probability of each pair advancing

INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58%


So, in short:

A: Life, Symbol
B: This one is completely open
C: Gumiho, Sniper and Bomber all have good chances
D: Hyun, Squirtle
E: Parting, Losira
F: Roro, MarineKing
G: Taeja first, Noblesse or Soulkey second
H: DRG, Stephano


Poor Huk with his 2.85%.
Zeon0
Profile Joined September 2010
Austria2995 Posts
January 14 2013 09:48 GMT
#146
Stephano playing on my birthday
Hater of MKP since GSL Open Season 2 | Fanboy of: NesTea Stephano IdrA DIMAGA MorroW ret DongRaeGu Snute SaSe Mvp ThorZaIN DeMusliM
asdfOu
Profile Joined August 2011
United States2089 Posts
January 14 2013 09:48 GMT
#147
leggo byun creator mkp and mvp!
rip prime
TAMinator
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia2706 Posts
January 14 2013 09:48 GMT
#148
Are people picking F because Stephano is in it?

PresenceSc2
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia4032 Posts
January 14 2013 09:49 GMT
#149
On January 14 2013 18:40 TheBB wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +
Group A

      Life: 94.23%
      Symbol: 45.35%
      Creator: 33.94%
      ByuL: 26.48%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Creator: 33.78% 32.28% 23.16% 10.78%
ByuL: 34.79% 38.73% 22.03% 4.45%
Symbol: 29.07% 25.57% 33.81% 11.54%
Life: 2.36% 3.41% 21.00% 73.22%

Probability of each pair advancing

Creator ByuL Symbol Life
Creator: 0.12% 1.64% 9.03%
ByuL: 0.41% 0.77% 3.27%
Symbol: 1.57% 1.26% 8.70%
Life: 21.17% 20.64% 31.41%


+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +
Group B

      Leenock: 57.12%
      BaBy: 55.11%
      MC: 45.27%
      Curious: 42.51%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Leenock: 20.50% 22.38% 27.23% 29.89%
BaBy: 22.05% 22.84% 26.35% 28.75%
Curious: 30.21% 27.29% 22.31% 20.19%
MC: 27.24% 27.49% 24.11% 21.17%

Probability of each pair advancing

Leenock BaBy Curious MC
Leenock: 9.76% 9.70% 10.43%
BaBy: 9.83% 8.06% 10.86%
Curious: 8.45% 8.92% 2.82%
MC: 8.94% 7.67% 4.55%


+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +
Group C

      Sniper: 67.59%
      GuMiho: 66.37%
      Bomber: 63.19%
      HuK: 2.85%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Sniper: 1.65% 30.76% 32.83% 34.76%
HuK: 74.67% 22.47% 1.96% 0.89%
Bomber: 4.95% 31.85% 39.98% 23.22%
GuMiho: 18.72% 14.91% 25.23% 41.13%

Probability of each pair advancing

Sniper HuK Bomber GuMiho
Sniper: 1.24% 16.54% 16.99%
HuK: 0.12% 0.22% 0.55%
Bomber: 14.92% 0.61% 7.69%
GuMiho: 17.80% 0.12% 23.22%


+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +
Group D

      HyuN: 77.50%
      Squirtle: 61.52%
      BBoongBBoong: 40.34%
      YoDa: 20.64%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
HyuN: 9.11% 13.39% 30.10% 47.41%
BBoongBBoong: 26.64% 33.03% 24.49% 15.85%
YoDa: 49.57% 29.79% 12.30% 8.35%
Squirtle: 14.69% 23.79% 33.12% 28.40%

Probability of each pair advancing

HyuN BBoongB YoDa Squirtl
HyuN: 14.13% 7.29% 25.99%
BBoongBBoong: 7.74% 2.51% 5.60%
YoDa: 5.07% 1.75% 1.52%
Squirtle: 17.29% 8.61% 2.50%


+ Show Spoiler [Group E] +
Group E

      PartinG: 91.55%
      LosirA: 62.53%
      Ryung: 39.10%
      Byun: 6.81%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Ryung: 16.06% 44.84% 27.21% 11.90%
LosirA: 9.65% 27.82% 45.50% 17.03%
Byun: 70.85% 22.34% 4.30% 2.51%
PartinG: 3.44% 5.01% 22.99% 68.56%

Probability of each pair advancing

Ryung LosirA Byun PartinG
Ryung: 1.32% 1.15% 9.42%
LosirA: 3.28% 1.89% 11.86%
Byun: 0.33% 0.48% 1.70%
PartinG: 23.61% 43.70% 1.26%


+ Show Spoiler [Group F] +
Group F

      MarineKing: 59.93%
      RorO: 55.46%
      Mvp: 42.63%
      Keen: 41.98%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
MarineKing: 16.35% 23.73% 30.48% 29.45%
RorO: 21.54% 23.00% 26.96% 28.50%
Keen: 32.24% 25.78% 20.69% 21.29%
Mvp: 29.87% 27.50% 21.87% 20.76%

Probability of each pair advancing

MarineK RorO Keen Mvp
MarineKing: 6.55% 11.73% 11.16%
RorO: 14.89% 5.73% 7.88%
Keen: 7.43% 11.04% 2.83%
Mvp: 8.16% 9.37% 3.23%


+ Show Spoiler [Group G] +
Group G

      TaeJa: 82.55%
      Noblesse: 51.94%
      Soulkey: 51.87%
      NesTea: 13.63%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Soulkey: 17.40% 30.73% 30.88% 20.99%
Noblesse: 17.37% 30.69% 31.74% 20.20%
NesTea: 58.85% 27.52% 8.46% 5.17%
TaeJa: 6.38% 11.07% 28.91% 53.64%

Probability of each pair advancing

Soulkey Nobless NesTea TaeJa
Soulkey: 4.79% 2.20% 14.01%
Noblesse: 5.37% 2.16% 12.67%
NesTea: 1.47% 1.46% 2.24%
TaeJa: 24.04% 25.49% 4.10%


+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      DongRaeGu: 85.02%
      Stephano: 61.67%
      INnoVation: 27.56%
      Hack: 25.75%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%

Probability of each pair advancing

INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58%


So, in short:

A: Life, Symbol
B: This one is completely open
C: Gumiho, Sniper and Bomber all have good chances
D: Hyun, Squirtle
E: Parting, Losira
F: Roro, MarineKing
G: Taeja first, Noblesse or Soulkey second
H: DRG, Stephano

you couldn't even give HuK 3%? T_T
Stephano//HerO//TaeJa//Squirtle//Bomber
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
January 14 2013 09:49 GMT
#150
On January 14 2013 18:48 TAMinator wrote:
Are people picking F because Stephano is in it?


F is MKP, Mvp, Roro, and Keen. Stephano is in H
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-14 09:57:36
January 14 2013 09:54 GMT
#151
On January 14 2013 18:45 vthree wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2013 18:40 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:37 vthree wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:34 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:30 Waxangel wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:29 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:21 Waxangel wrote:
how is stephano so lucky?!

HuK made it so Sniper took him as the default pick, and then I guess HyuN didn't want to take Stephano because of the old TSL connection?

Why do you say he is so lucky?
If you have the opportunity to pick Stephano or Huk. To choose between an always volatile ZvZ or a more reliable ZvP, you pick HuK and the ZvP. About Hyun, I don't see why an old connection would help Stephano. On the other hand they trained together and their match were always close. I understand he picks someone else if he feels strong against him.
Getting DRG, maybe top2 in the world right now is not being lucky. It's not bad but it's not being in Losira's or Roro's position.


he's lucky that HuK made it for one

it's extremely unlikely BOTH sniper and HyuN pass him over without huk


Look at Huk, or BBongBBong's group. It wouldn't change a thing for Stephano: one strong zerg, and two hard but beatable opponents


Kind of. But the order of play matters. Stephano gets to play a T first. So he cannot get knocked out by 2 ZvZs (it would have been possible if he was in HuK or B4's position).

I think it is debatable and it depends. Here I doubt DRG would lose one serie for example.
With the GSL format, I'd rather play against the hardest opponent first. Otherwise, it may be like WCS where Stephano was 3-2 versus HerO but was eliminated.

No, but it still opens up for the possibility. And why open with the hardest opponent first? It is always better to win your first match in the GSL format.

Maybe TheBB could crunch the numbers for if it was DRG v Stephano, Bogus v Hack setup.

Sure thing. According to "me," he's still favoured to get out in second place, but not nearly by as much.

The first round pairings can have a pretty big impact. You always want to open against the weakest opponents, because there's a chance the presumed strongest opponent can fail to win his game. Remember that the strongest opponent against you doesn't have to be strongest against others (since matchups matter).

+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      DongRaeGu: 85.02%
      Stephano: 61.67%
      INnoVation: 27.56%
      Hack: 25.75%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%

Probability of each pair advancing

INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58%


+ Show Spoiler [Group H*] +
Group H*

      DongRaeGu: 90.99%
      Stephano: 42.12%
      Hack: 34.57%
      INnoVation: 32.32%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 37.90% 29.77% 17.66% 14.66%
Hack: 33.18% 32.25% 19.45% 15.12%
Stephano: 25.86% 32.02% 34.94% 7.18%
DongRaeGu: 3.05% 5.96% 27.95% 63.04%

Probability of each pair advancing

INnoVat Hack Stephan DongRae
INnoVation: 1.05% 1.37% 12.24%
Hack: 1.54% 1.36% 12.21%
Stephano: 1.72% 1.97% 3.49%
DongRaeGu: 14.40% 16.44% 32.20%
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
deathabene
Profile Joined August 2011
Denmark83 Posts
January 14 2013 09:56 GMT
#152
how come bomber cant ever get rid off gumiho? they have to play like evry season
are u ready for bombing?
Mackus
Profile Joined January 2011
England1681 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-14 09:58:02
January 14 2013 09:56 GMT
#153
Did Hyun really pick BBoongBong? - Runners up get a pick too.
Group H is obviously the most balanced of the groups

Really not liking the new Map pool - Antiga showed some really great games.
Noizhende
Profile Joined January 2012
Austria328 Posts
January 14 2013 09:57 GMT
#154
Those groups look actually pretty close in how hard it would be to get through, i don't think there's a real group of death.
Die neuen Tempel haben schon Risse - künftige Ruinen - einst wächst Gras auch über diese Stadt - über ihre letzte Schicht
kochanfe
Profile Joined July 2011
Micronesia1338 Posts
January 14 2013 09:57 GMT
#155
SIIIIIIIIIIICK!
"The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long." - Lao Tzu
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
January 14 2013 10:00 GMT
#156
On January 14 2013 18:54 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2013 18:45 vthree wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:40 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:37 vthree wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:34 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:30 Waxangel wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:29 Thurken wrote:
On January 14 2013 18:21 Waxangel wrote:
how is stephano so lucky?!

HuK made it so Sniper took him as the default pick, and then I guess HyuN didn't want to take Stephano because of the old TSL connection?

Why do you say he is so lucky?
If you have the opportunity to pick Stephano or Huk. To choose between an always volatile ZvZ or a more reliable ZvP, you pick HuK and the ZvP. About Hyun, I don't see why an old connection would help Stephano. On the other hand they trained together and their match were always close. I understand he picks someone else if he feels strong against him.
Getting DRG, maybe top2 in the world right now is not being lucky. It's not bad but it's not being in Losira's or Roro's position.


he's lucky that HuK made it for one

it's extremely unlikely BOTH sniper and HyuN pass him over without huk


Look at Huk, or BBongBBong's group. It wouldn't change a thing for Stephano: one strong zerg, and two hard but beatable opponents


Kind of. But the order of play matters. Stephano gets to play a T first. So he cannot get knocked out by 2 ZvZs (it would have been possible if he was in HuK or B4's position).

I think it is debatable and it depends. Here I doubt DRG would lose one serie for example.
With the GSL format, I'd rather play against the hardest opponent first. Otherwise, it may be like WCS where Stephano was 3-2 versus HerO but was eliminated.

No, but it still opens up for the possibility. And why open with the hardest opponent first? It is always better to win your first match in the GSL format.

Maybe TheBB could crunch the numbers for if it was DRG v Stephano, Bogus v Hack setup.

Sure thing. According to "me," he's still favoured to get out in second place, but not nearly by as much.

The first round pairings can have a pretty big impact.

+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
Group H

      DongRaeGu: 85.02%
      Stephano: 61.67%
      INnoVation: 27.56%
      Hack: 25.75%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 40.30% 32.14% 16.34% 11.22%
Stephano: 13.53% 24.80% 42.57% 19.10%
Hack: 39.06% 35.20% 16.09% 9.66%
DongRaeGu: 7.11% 7.87% 25.00% 60.02%

Probability of each pair advancing

INnoVat Stephan Hack DongRae
INnoVation: 0.83% 1.58% 8.80%
Stephano: 2.82% 5.93% 10.36%
Hack: 2.04% 1.78% 5.84%
DongRaeGu: 11.48% 39.96% 8.58%


+ Show Spoiler [Group H*] +
Group H*

      DongRaeGu: 90.99%
      Stephano: 42.12%
      Hack: 34.57%
      INnoVation: 32.32%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

4th 3rd 2nd 1st
INnoVation: 37.90% 29.77% 17.66% 14.66%
Hack: 33.18% 32.25% 19.45% 15.12%
Stephano: 25.86% 32.02% 34.94% 7.18%
DongRaeGu: 3.05% 5.96% 27.95% 63.04%

Probability of each pair advancing

INnoVat Hack Stephan DongRae
INnoVation: 1.05% 1.37% 12.24%
Hack: 1.54% 1.36% 12.21%
Stephano: 1.72% 1.97% 3.49%
DongRaeGu: 14.40% 16.44% 32.20%


Thanks. Yes, it makes sense that it would only make a slight difference because DRG is big favorites over Hack and Bogus. So it is Stephano's most likely path would be beating Bogus and Hack anyways. But it does make a difference.

I think in cases where the racial strength of a player is very skewed (like previous JYP vZ, vT etc), and you have 2-3 players like that in one group. Then you will see huge variations due to order.
Sumahi
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Guam5609 Posts
January 14 2013 10:00 GMT
#157
I feel bad about this, but I want Squirtle and Parting to lose in the Round of 32.

I'm hoping that Bomber performs well. I have a feeling both him and Life will do well in this GSL.
Startale <3, ST_July <3, HongUn <3, Savior <3, Gretorp <3, Nada <3, Rainbow <3, Ret <3, Squirtle <3, Bomber <3
CloudMage
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada221 Posts
January 14 2013 10:04 GMT
#158
HuK Fighting!!!! is it just me or are these groups seriously lacking in Protoss rep lol oh well terran OP zerg OP n all dat
HuK <3 WhiteRa <3 Grubby <3 TLO <3 Day[9] <3
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
January 14 2013 10:05 GMT
#159
On January 14 2013 19:04 CloudMage wrote:
HuK Fighting!!!! is it just me or are these groups seriously lacking in Protoss rep lol oh well terran OP zerg OP n all dat


Yeah. Only 5 protosses made it to Code S this season.
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
January 14 2013 10:06 GMT
#160
On January 14 2013 18:56 Mackus wrote:
Did Hyun really pick BBoongBong? - Runners up get a pick too.
Group H is obviously the most balanced of the groups

Really not liking the new Map pool - Antiga showed some really great games.

yeah, hyun picked bboong
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
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