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[WCS EU] Ro16 Group D Premier Season 1 2014

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
Post a Reply
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NovaMB
Profile Joined February 2013
Germany9534 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-28 21:48:03
March 27 2014 21:42 GMT
#1
[image loading]

Friday, Mar 28 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_WCS_Season_1_Europe/Premier
[image loading]
TL Preview: Here!



[image loading]

Casters: Apollo , Kaelaris and ToD
Host: Redeye

uk WCS EU
de TaKeTV
pl ESLtv Poland
es TheArgie
ru EmpireTV



[image loading]

[image loading] [image loading]
kr (P)MC vs pl (Z)Nerchio
Starting map: Alterzim Stronghold

[image loading] [image loading]
uk (P)BlinG vs kr (P)San
Starting map: Habitation Station



[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Spoiler-Free] +
+ Show Spoiler [MC vs Nerchio] +
+ Show Spoiler [Game 1] +
(P)MC <Alterzim Stronghold> (Z)Nerchio

+ Show Spoiler [Game 2] +
(P)MC <Frost> (Z)Nerchio

+ Show Spoiler [Game 3] +
(P)MC <Heavy Rain> (Z)Nerchio

+ Show Spoiler [BlinG vs San] +
+ Show Spoiler [Game 1] +
(P)BlinG <Habitation Station> (P)San

+ Show Spoiler [Game 2] +
(P)BlinG <Frost> (P)San

+ Show Spoiler [Game 3] +
(P)BlinG <Polar Night> (P)San

+ Show Spoiler [Winners' Match] +
+ Show Spoiler [Game 1] +
(P)MC <Frost> (P)San

+ Show Spoiler [Game 2] +
(P)MC <Heavy Rain> (P)San

+ Show Spoiler [Game 3] +
(P)MC <Habitation Station> (P)San

+ Show Spoiler [Losers' Match] +
+ Show Spoiler [Game 1] +
(Z)Nerchio <Frost> (P)BlinG

+ Show Spoiler [Game 2] +
(Z)Nerchio <Alterzim Stronghold> (P)BlinG

+ Show Spoiler [Game 3] +
(Z)Nerchio <Heavy Rain> (P)BlinG

+ Show Spoiler [Final Match] +
+ Show Spoiler [Game 1] +
(P)MC <Polar Night> (Z)Nerchio

+ Show Spoiler [Game 2] +
(P)MC <Frost> (Z)Nerchio

+ Show Spoiler [Game 3] +
(P)MC <Habitation Station> (Z)Nerchio


+ Show Spoiler [Overall Results] +

MC vs Nerchio
(P)MC <Alterzim Stronghold> (Z)Nerchio
(P)MC <Frost> (Z)Nerchio
(P)MC <Heavy Rain> (Z)Nerchio

(P)MC wins 2-1!

BlinG vs San
(P)BlinG <Habitation Station> (P)San
(P)BlinG <Frost> (P)San
(P)BlinG <Polar Night> (P)San

(P)San wins 2-1!

Winners' Match
(P)MC <Frost> (P)San
(P)MC <Heavy Rain> (P)San
(P)MC <Habitation Station> (P)San

(P)San wins 2-0!

Losers' Match
(Z)Nerchio <Frost> (P)BlinG
(Z)Nerchio <Alterzim Stronghold> (P)BlinG
(Z)Nerchio <Heavy Rain> (P)BlinG

(Z)Nerchio wins 2-0!

Final Match
(P)MC <Polar Night> (Z)Nerchio
(P)MC <Frost> (Z)Nerchio
(P)MC <Habitation Station> (Z)Nerchio

(P)MC wins 2-0!



(P)yoeFW.San and (P)MC advance to WCS EU Premier Ro8!



WCS EU Final Bracket
(P)StarDust vs. (P)MC
(Z)VortiX vs. (T)jjakji

(Z)Snute vs. (T)MMA
(P)San vs. (P)Welmu





[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +

MC vs Nerchio Game 1
MC vs Nerchio Game 2
MC vs Nerchio Game 3



BlinG vs San Game 1
BlinG vs San Game 2
BlinG vs San Game 3



Winners' Match Game 1
Winners' Match Game 2
Winners' Match Game 3



Losers' Match Game 1
Losers' Match Game 2
Losers' Match Game 3



Final Match Game 1
Final Match Game 2
Final Match Game 3





[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
+ Show Spoiler [MC vs Nerchio] +
Poll: Recommend MC vs. Nerchio Game 1?

★★★ - Good game (10)
 
42%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (7)
 
29%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (4)
 
17%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (2)
 
8%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (1)
 
4%

24 total votes

Your vote: Recommend MC vs. Nerchio Game 1?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend MC vs. Nerchio Game 2?

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (25)
 
64%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (9)
 
23%

★★★ - Good game (4)
 
10%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (1)
 
3%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (0)
 
0%

39 total votes

Your vote: Recommend MC vs. Nerchio Game 2?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend MC vs. Nerchio Game 3?

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (11)
 
34%

★★★ - Good game (6)
 
19%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (5)
 
16%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (5)
 
16%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (5)
 
16%

32 total votes

Your vote: Recommend MC vs. Nerchio Game 3?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what



+ Show Spoiler [BlinG vs San] +
Poll: Recommend Bling vs. San Game 1?

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (8)
 
73%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (2)
 
18%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (1)
 
9%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (0)
 
0%

★★★ - Good game (0)
 
0%

11 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Bling vs. San Game 1?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Bling vs. San Game 2?

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (5)
 
42%

★★★ - Good game (4)
 
33%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (2)
 
17%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (1)
 
8%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (0)
 
0%

12 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Bling vs. San Game 2?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Bling vs. San Game 3?

★★★ - Good game (4)
 
27%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (4)
 
27%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (3)
 
20%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (2)
 
13%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (2)
 
13%

15 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Bling vs. San Game 3?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what



+ Show Spoiler [Winners' Match] +
Poll: Recommend Winners' Match Game 1?

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (9)
 
82%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (2)
 
18%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (0)
 
0%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (0)
 
0%

★★★ - Good game (0)
 
0%

11 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Winners' Match Game 1?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Winners' Match Game 2?

★★★ - Good game (4)
 
80%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (1)
 
20%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (0)
 
0%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (0)
 
0%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (0)
 
0%

5 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Winners' Match Game 2?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Winners' Match Game 3?

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (4)
 
50%

★★★ - Good game (2)
 
25%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (1)
 
13%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (1)
 
13%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (0)
 
0%

8 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Winners' Match Game 3?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what



+ Show Spoiler [Losers' Match] +
Poll: Recommend Losers' Match Game 1?

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (6)
 
60%

★★★ - Good game (4)
 
40%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (0)
 
0%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (0)
 
0%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (0)
 
0%

10 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Losers' Match Game 1?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Losers' Match Game 2?

★★★ - Good game (6)
 
67%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (3)
 
33%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (0)
 
0%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (0)
 
0%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (0)
 
0%

9 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Losers' Match Game 2?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Losers' Match Game 3?

★★★ - Good game (5)
 
63%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (1)
 
13%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (1)
 
13%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (1)
 
13%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (0)
 
0%

8 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Losers' Match Game 3?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what



+ Show Spoiler [Final Match] +
Poll: Recommend Final Match Game 1?

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (6)
 
38%

★★★ - Good game (4)
 
25%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (3)
 
19%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (2)
 
13%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (1)
 
6%

16 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Final Match Game 1?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Final Match Game 2?

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (7)
 
58%

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (3)
 
25%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (1)
 
8%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (1)
 
8%

★★★ - Good game (0)
 
0%

12 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Final Match Game 2?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


Poll: Recommend Final Match Game 3?

★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do (4)
 
36%

★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season (2)
 
18%

★★★ - Good game (2)
 
18%

★ - Do not see this game no matter what (2)
 
18%

★★★★ - Highly recommended game (1)
 
9%

11 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Final Match Game 3?

(Vote): ★★★★★ - One of the best games of the season
(Vote): ★★★★ - Highly recommended game
(Vote): ★★★ - Good game
(Vote): ★★ - Not recommended unless you have nothing better to do
(Vote): ★ - Do not see this game no matter what


NovaMB
Profile Joined February 2013
Germany9534 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-28 15:27:33
March 27 2014 21:42 GMT
#2
Poll: Head?

MC & San (26)
 
57%

Nerchio & San (10)
 
22%

MC & Nerchio (7)
 
15%

MC & Bling (1)
 
2%

Nercho & Bling (1)
 
2%

Bling & San (1)
 
2%

46 total votes

Your vote: Head?

(Vote): MC & Nerchio
(Vote): MC & Bling
(Vote): MC & San
(Vote): Nercho & Bling
(Vote): Nerchio & San
(Vote): Bling & San


Poll: Heart?

Nercho & Bling (15)
 
31%

MC & San (13)
 
27%

MC & Nerchio (10)
 
20%

MC & Bling (6)
 
12%

Nerchio & San (3)
 
6%

Bling & San (2)
 
4%

49 total votes

Your vote: Heart?

(Vote): MC & Nerchio
(Vote): MC & Bling
(Vote): MC & San
(Vote): Nercho & Bling
(Vote): Nerchio & San
(Vote): Bling & San



                 Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
--------------------------------------------------------------
San 86.73% 56.64% 30.10% 8.58% 4.69%
MC 64.85% 26.74% 38.11% 21.76% 13.38%
BlinG 20.56% 8.43% 12.14% 28.10% 51.33%
Nerchio 27.85% 8.19% 19.66% 41.55% 30.60%

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.
On March 29 2014 00:27 Die4Ever wrote:
WCS Predictor says

Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Nerchio, MC, San, BlinG in WCS EU S1 P…] +

- Nerchio is at ~ 11.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014
~ 39.01 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.64 %.
~ 60.99 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.15 %.
-------------------------------------------------
- MC is at ~ 61.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014
~ 57.38 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.01 %.
~ 42.62 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 43.42 %.
-------------------------------------------------
- San is at ~ 99.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014
~ 71.70 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %.
~ 28.30 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.74 %.
-------------------------------------------------
- BlinG is at ~ 3.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014
~ 31.91 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.75 %.
~ 68.09 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.18 %.


http://sc2.4ever.tv/

Xinzoe
Profile Joined January 2014
Korea (South)2373 Posts
March 27 2014 21:44 GMT
#3
nerchio is really angry at this group. RIP
Lorning *
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgica34432 Posts
March 27 2014 21:46 GMT
#4
D for DNerchio is the best foreigner and will 4 - 0 this group
Community News
TL+ Member
Emerson_H
Profile Joined March 2014
United States460 Posts
March 27 2014 21:56 GMT
#5
Nerchio 4-0 ezpz

rise of the foreign zerg incoming
kaykoose
Profile Joined February 2014
United States2302 Posts
March 27 2014 21:57 GMT
#6
San, MC
SmoKim
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark10305 Posts
March 27 2014 21:57 GMT
#7
Hail King Arthur, Lord of the Lings!
"LOL I have 202 supply right now (3 minutes later)..."LOL NOW I HAVE 220 SUPPLY SUP?!?!?" - Mondragon
intotheheart
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Canada33091 Posts
March 27 2014 22:08 GMT
#8
Bosstoss to 4-0.
kiss kiss fall in love
Undead1993
Profile Joined January 2012
Germany17651 Posts
March 27 2014 22:27 GMT
#9
nerchio 1st
san 2nd
mc 3rd
and bling 4th
SEKO SEKO SEKO SEKO SEKO
aZealot
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
New Zealand5447 Posts
March 28 2014 02:13 GMT
#10
Is this tomorrow morning? I may catch this as I'll be up early and working late morning/midday anyway.

Go MC! Go San!
KT best KT ~ 2014
Selassie
Profile Joined April 2012
Ireland58 Posts
March 28 2014 02:37 GMT
#11
I reckon Bling will finish 2nd/3rd, in the previous group stages his build order mind games were insane just needs a bit of luck on his side.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
March 28 2014 02:56 GMT
#12
MC > Nerchio > San > BlinG
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12535 Posts
March 28 2014 03:21 GMT
#13
I'm curious if San will try to end second in this group, because that would be SO INCREDIBLY MUCH better for him than first.
No will to live, no wish to die
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
March 28 2014 03:39 GMT
#14
nerchio and san or MC would be nice for race distribution haha
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12535 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-28 04:05:31
March 28 2014 03:46 GMT
#15
Actually I want maths done about it. If San wins the group, he has 66% chance to play his bad match-up and 33% chance to play his okay match-up. If he finishes second, he has 66% to play the match-up he is the best in the world at, and 33% chance to play his okay match-up. Difference between losing in Ro8 and hitting the Ro4 is 2500 (7500 vs 5000). Difference between Ro16 and Ro8 is 2000 (5000 vs 3000). It's hard to quantify the risk that you take by losing a series, because you are obviously in more risk to lose the group. I wonder how much impact it has whether Nerchio beats MC or not, because you take a greater risk if you're playing the last match vs MC than you do vs Nerchio (based on San's record, not MC & Nerchio's skill).

Can we quantify whether San is making a mistake by attempting to win the group?

Basically he would be betting 2000 to win a total of 4500, so he needs things to work out ~44% of the time for the gamble to be profitable. I have a hard time thinking that's not the case.
No will to live, no wish to die
Popkiller
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
3415 Posts
March 28 2014 05:14 GMT
#16
On March 28 2014 12:46 Nebuchad wrote:
Actually I want maths done about it. If San wins the group, he has 66% chance to play his bad match-up and 33% chance to play his okay match-up. If he finishes second, he has 66% to play the match-up he is the best in the world at, and 33% chance to play his okay match-up. Difference between losing in Ro8 and hitting the Ro4 is 2500 (7500 vs 5000). Difference between Ro16 and Ro8 is 2000 (5000 vs 3000). It's hard to quantify the risk that you take by losing a series, because you are obviously in more risk to lose the group. I wonder how much impact it has whether Nerchio beats MC or not, because you take a greater risk if you're playing the last match vs MC than you do vs Nerchio (based on San's record, not MC & Nerchio's skill).

Can we quantify whether San is making a mistake by attempting to win the group?

Basically he would be betting 2000 to win a total of 4500, so he needs things to work out ~44% of the time for the gamble to be profitable. I have a hard time thinking that's not the case.


Hmm, I like questions like this, but I have a feeling he's just going to play to win and worry about the Ro8 later.
Yorkie
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States12612 Posts
March 28 2014 05:36 GMT
#17
Hmmm not a huge Nerchio fan to be honest but for the swarm! :D San/Nerchio the most likely result aside from the all-Korean victory.Then again Bling could surprise us all again! Not likely though, predicting a 4th place for him.
Hwang Kang Hooooooooooo. Follow mah boy Shellshock @Shellshock1122
JessicaSc2
Profile Joined February 2014
Poland123 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-28 06:46:08
March 28 2014 06:46 GMT
#18
I wonder if Nerchio can pull it off...
NovaMB
Profile Joined February 2013
Germany9534 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-28 12:42:31
March 28 2014 12:41 GMT
#19
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Tried my paint skills at a banner....
Lorning *
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgica34432 Posts
March 28 2014 13:01 GMT
#20
On March 28 2014 21:41 NovaMB wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Tried my paint skills at a banner....

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