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On January 11 2013 20:08 00Visor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:06 Epamynondas wrote:On January 11 2013 20:00 TheBB wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Wildcard GroupSymbol Expected score: 3.12-0.88 (sets: 3.12-0.88) Probability of achieving top 2: 82.80% Most likely place: 2nd (43.08%) Byun Expected score: 2.50-1.50 (sets: 2.50-1.50) Probability of achieving top 2: 69.90% Most likely place: 2nd (40.10%) Jaedong Expected score: 2.45-1.55 (sets: 2.45-1.55) Probability of achieving top 2: 45.00% Most likely place: 3rd (33.77%) Center Expected score: 1.22-2.78 (sets: 1.22-2.78) Probability of achieving top 2: 2.31% Most likely place: 4th (77.81%) Shine Expected score: 0.70-3.30 (sets: 0.70-3.30) Probability of achieving top 2: 0.00% Most likely place: 5th (100.00%) details, data source, code+ Show Spoiler [Details] +Detailed placement probabilities
5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Shine: 100.00%
Symbol: 0.96% 16.25% 43.08% 39.72%
Byun: 30.10% 40.10% 29.80%
Center: 77.81% 19.89% 2.31%
Jaedong: 21.24% 33.77% 14.51% 30.48%
Match score
0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Shine: 29.73% 70.27%
Symbol: 13.90% 60.52% 25.57%
Byun: 55.87% 38.04% 6.09%
Center: 77.63% 22.37%
Jaedong: 7.19% 40.14% 52.66%
Set score
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Shine: 29.73% 70.27%
Symbol: 13.90% 60.52% 25.57%
Byun: 55.87% 38.04% 6.09%
Center: 77.63% 22.37%
Jaedong: 7.19% 40.14% 52.66% Symbol wins (32.16%): 1-0: 32.16% Jaedong wins (67.84%): 1-0: 67.84% Most likely winner: Jaedong (67.84%) Median outcome: Symbol 0-1 Jaedong details, data source, code This is strange.... If Jaedong is so favored against Symbol, how comes his probability to advance is so low? Are his chances against center that low? 45% is not really low. If Jaedong loses against Center, he loses tiebreaker vs Byun+Center, so he basically has to win both.
Yeah I guess I'm just underestimating both Center and the number 45
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United States97277 Posts
GSL S1 2013 Up & Down Matches Wildcard  ByuN (2-0) vs  Shine (0-3) Map: Bel'Shir Vestige
0:00
ByuN spawns in the bottom right
Shine spawns in the top left
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On January 11 2013 20:16 blade55555 wrote:Ok Jaedong MUST win vs center to advance unless I am mistaken. Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:15 skYTosS wrote:
No killer eyes today from Jaedong. He's not at his best, hope he can win next game. Can't blame him he just got back to korea and right after he arrived had to go straight to GOM studio.
I think there still is a possibility of a 3 way tie if Symbol loses against Byun.
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On January 11 2013 20:16 DreamOen wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:15 Ghanburighan wrote:
Someone with HD needs to take pics of Jaedong's win-face. I wouldn't play poker against a jet-lagged Jaedong. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/3Qut4.jpg)
Yes. It's like he's suppressing the inner demons from which he draws his power. "Must.... not.... eviscerate...."
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Shine vs. Byun
Shine wins (70.27%):
1-0: 70.27%
Byun wins (29.73%):
1-0: 29.73%
Most likely winner: Shine (70.27%)
Median outcome: Shine 1-0 Byun
details, data source, code
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Oh man proxies spotted straight away.
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United States30730 Posts
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Bearded Elder29905 Posts
Yes Jaedong !!! Gogo ByuN !
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On January 11 2013 20:18 Gevna wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:16 blade55555 wrote:Ok Jaedong MUST win vs center to advance unless I am mistaken. On January 11 2013 20:15 skYTosS wrote:
No killer eyes today from Jaedong. He's not at his best, hope he can win next game. Can't blame him he just got back to korea and right after he arrived had to go straight to GOM studio. I think there still is a possibility of a 3 way tie if Symbol loses against Byun.
Well to me sounds like if jaedong loses and symbol loses byun and jaedong advance, if jaedong loses, symbol wins symbol and byun advance.
From what I have seen the tie breakers is literally just a did x player beat y right?
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ByuN microing that SCV pretty well ahaha.
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Byun SCVs are damn sneak at building raxes!! :p
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On January 11 2013 20:17 blade55555 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:17 glzElectromaster wrote:On January 11 2013 20:16 blade55555 wrote:Ok Jaedong MUST win vs center to advance unless I am mistaken. On January 11 2013 20:15 skYTosS wrote:
No killer eyes today from Jaedong. He's not at his best, hope he can win next game. Can't blame him he just got back to korea and right after he arrived had to go straight to GOM studio. Jaedong can lose. Then if Symbol loses his next game, then it'll be a three-tie. Would they actually play or would jaedong advance due to him > symbol ?
Well its Center> Jaedong > Symbol > Center if a three-way happens so they'll play.
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United States33702 Posts
well, if you didn't know what team ByuN was on, now you know
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On January 11 2013 20:20 glzElectromaster wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:17 blade55555 wrote:On January 11 2013 20:17 glzElectromaster wrote:On January 11 2013 20:16 blade55555 wrote:Ok Jaedong MUST win vs center to advance unless I am mistaken. On January 11 2013 20:15 skYTosS wrote:
No killer eyes today from Jaedong. He's not at his best, hope he can win next game. Can't blame him he just got back to korea and right after he arrived had to go straight to GOM studio. Jaedong can lose. Then if Symbol loses his next game, then it'll be a three-tie. Would they actually play or would jaedong advance due to him > symbol ? Well its Center> Jaedong > Symbol > Center if a three-way happens so they'll play.
Ah thanks I forgot about center lol xD
Hopefully jaedong just wins ^_^
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If Byun loses this, Jaedong has a decent chance.
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United States97277 Posts
On January 11 2013 20:18 Shellshock1122 wrote: GSL S1 2013 Up & Down Matches Wildcard ByuN (2-0) vs Shine (0-3) Map: Bel'Shir Vestige 0:00 ByuN spawns in the bottom right Shine spawns in the top left
1:40
proxy 11/11 from ByuN to the right side of the map near the 3rd base
quick drone scout from Shine
2:00
drone scout sees both proxy rax
pool for Shine
ByuN microing his building scvs to have them survive as long as possible
hatch for Shine
3:00
ByuN cancels 1 rax after the drone leaves
lings started for Shine
CC started for ByuN on the high ground
gas for Shine
ByuN floating his rax back
4:00
rax started at home for ByuN to complete his wall off
double gas for ByuN
rax floating turns around to scout
5:00
ling speed started for Shine
factory started for ByuN
reactor for ByuN
2 more rax for ByuN
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On January 11 2013 20:20 blade55555 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:20 glzElectromaster wrote:On January 11 2013 20:17 blade55555 wrote:On January 11 2013 20:17 glzElectromaster wrote:On January 11 2013 20:16 blade55555 wrote:Ok Jaedong MUST win vs center to advance unless I am mistaken. On January 11 2013 20:15 skYTosS wrote:
No killer eyes today from Jaedong. He's not at his best, hope he can win next game. Can't blame him he just got back to korea and right after he arrived had to go straight to GOM studio. Jaedong can lose. Then if Symbol loses his next game, then it'll be a three-tie. Would they actually play or would jaedong advance due to him > symbol ? Well its Center> Jaedong > Symbol > Center if a three-way happens so they'll play. Ah thanks I forgot about center lol xD Hopefully jaedong just wins ^_^
Np. I'm torn. I'm both a fan of JD and Center.
I guess you could say I'll be happy if either of them advances.
Turns out I'm an avid anti-Symboler too.
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On January 11 2013 20:19 blade55555 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2013 20:18 Gevna wrote:On January 11 2013 20:16 blade55555 wrote:Ok Jaedong MUST win vs center to advance unless I am mistaken. On January 11 2013 20:15 skYTosS wrote:
No killer eyes today from Jaedong. He's not at his best, hope he can win next game. Can't blame him he just got back to korea and right after he arrived had to go straight to GOM studio. I think there still is a possibility of a 3 way tie if Symbol loses against Byun. Well to me sounds like if jaedong loses and symbol loses byun and jaedong advance, if jaedong loses, symbol wins symbol and byun advance. From what I have seen the tie breakers is literally just a did x player beat y right?
If Jaedong and Symbol lose, then there is a 3way tie between Symbol, Jaedong and Center.
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On January 11 2013 20:21 sitromit wrote:
If Byun loses this, Jaedong has a decent chance.
True. Three consecutive zerg wins from here and JD and Symbol will advance.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0gzXo.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/mS4gH.png)
