EPT[Code S] Semi-Finals 2012 GSL Season 5 - Page 4
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Emzeeshady
Canada4203 Posts
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5221 Posts
On November 27 2012 07:04 TheBB wrote: The bar is divided into six sections, each corresponds to an outcome, reading from left to right: 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 2-3, 1-3, 0-3. So the leftmost bar (the reddest) corresponds to the biggest possible win for the guy on the left, the rightmost one (the bluest) corresponds to the biggest win for the guy on the right, and the ones in the middle correspond to less clear wins. The width of each section relates to its probability. The whole bar is 100% in width. If an outcome was 50% likely it would take up exactly half of it. My predicted outcome is whichever section contains the middle point of the bar. You could take the arithmetic mean of all outcomes (weighted by probability), but then you'd get less than 3 for each player. For Hyun vs Bogus for example, you end up with an expected outcome of 2.28-1.76 in favour of Hyun. This means that Hyun is expected to win 2.28 games on average, and Bogus is expected to win 1.76, but it doesn't work so well as a prediction because at least one of them have to win 3 games. You can scale it so that one has 3 wins, which gives you 3-2.32 in this case. Another thing you could do is to take the expected value of the difference between Hyun and Bogus' scores, and then adjust it so that one has three games. Then you get something like 3-2.39 in favour of Hyun. So there you have it, three ideas. I kind of like the one I use because it's intended to be used as a prediction, and not an expectation (namely, it gives an outcome that is actually possible). Input is always appreciated. Ah, okay, works more as a functional median, it's pretty rad. I, for one, am more of a fan of probable means because it's just less data to look at when it comes to a quick look at odds in the sea of comments in a LR thread. But, then again I'm not against some nice datapr0n either, so it's not like I want you to change your methods or anything. | ||
opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On November 26 2012 22:58 Hall0wed wrote: I think I want Ryung vs. Hyun finals but all outcomes are fine except Sniper vs. Hyun. Sniper winning it all would be ok since I am pretty sure I was one of the first 1 or 2 people to call him DRG Jr. (I used to see people play "KillerMvP" on the ladder and just assumed it was DRG due to the playstyle and skill level, turns out it was Sniper and once I knew that I just referred to him as DRG Jr.). What's wrong with Sniper-HyuN? We saw how good high-level ZvZ can look like with MLG and GZL lately haha | ||
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ES.Genie
Germany1370 Posts
Not even close. | ||
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Emzeeshady
Canada4203 Posts
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Slackzftw
Germany361 Posts
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Rui.S
Canada92 Posts
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GreyishTommy
Switzerland147 Posts
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ShAdZ_ZX
Australia635 Posts
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ES.Genie
Germany1370 Posts
On November 28 2012 06:54 Emzeeshady wrote: I know right ZvZ is way better  But seriously I think the only reason people say TvT is because ZvZ used to be horrible even though it is amazing right now (watch RO16 Group D). Regardless they are both very fun to watch and I would rather watch either over a ZvTurtle. ZvZ lategame is extremely boring. As soon as the Roach/Infestor war starts, it gets kinda stupid(some games are good, but most aren't). They are even in the early and midgame, zvz might even have the edge here, because alot of TvTs start boring, while zvz most of the time has action from minute one. Both matchups are fun to watch, but I prefere TvT. Probably also because I'm terran or atleast I was when I actually played the game... | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32754 Posts
HyuN 3-1 INoVation Sniper 3-1 Ryung | ||
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red4ce
United States7313 Posts
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Corrosive
Canada3741 Posts
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pvpeep
Canada228 Posts
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-Strider-
Mexico1605 Posts
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Laryleprakon
New Zealand9496 Posts
As long as we don't have a zvz final I'm happy. | ||
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c0sm0naut
United States1229 Posts
it is if you consider the benefit of sleep instead of staying up through 7 split map TvT games lol On November 28 2012 09:40 -Strider- wrote: Any outcome will be welcomed. i would like to second this these are all really really hot players right now | ||
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Cyanocyst
2222 Posts
On November 27 2012 23:41 opterown wrote: What's wrong with Sniper-HyuN? We saw how good high-level ZvZ can look like with MLG and GZL lately haha Hyun's recent game vs Sniper with his team's life was on the line, made it look like he was no match for Sniper. In that scenario i would expect Sniper to take it 4-0, or 4-1. | ||
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MCXD
Australia2738 Posts
As for Ryung vs. Sniper. I really, really don't understand the hate for Sniper. He is a genuinely good player and has the potential to take over for DRG and continue the MVP zerg ace legacy. I actually blame some particularly TL writers more than anything for making people dislike him >_> I expect him to defeat Ryung. But! I would love to see Ryung advance, because a TvZ final would be more exciting than a ZvZ final, and seeing Ryung flourish after all of the stress and hard work over the last year would be absolutely fantastic. Head: HyuN 3-2 Bogus Sniper 3-1 Ryung Heart: HyuN, Ryung advance | ||
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