Seeing how we now know the 64 players in the GSL3, I thought I'd take a quick look at who can likely make S-Class status.
Obviously those that make the top 8 in each tournament will make it, so we know a lot of them already, that's not what this post is concerned about, look on liquipedia if you can't remember who's there already. What this is concerned with is the additional "wildcard" players who won't automatically get it, but will do so based on performances over the three tournaments as a whole.
It's slightly awkward to calculate anything, seeing how (as far as I know? Correct me if wrong) we don't know GOM's scoring system. Is it sorted simply based on number of wins? Or is winning a match in the round of 32 worth more than winning a match in the round of 64? And if so, by how much?
So what I've done here is try to work out as much as I can making no assumptions as to how much anything is worth, other than that a round of 16 appearance is worth more than making the round of 32 etc.
This offsite blog post here that someone pointed out to me earlier, in a similar vein made prior to the qualifiers, is somewhat useful for this purpose, as it lists anyone that has either made the round of 16 in a previous event, or has made both of the prior GSLs and won at least one match. This is useful because it tells us instantly how many players have made the round of 16 but gone no further, which is 13 players:
The most important thing this means is that for players making their debut in the GSL3, it's going to be very hard, if not impossible, to get S-Class without earning it outright by making the round of 8, seeing how they can only draw level into what would be a six-way (or more) tie for ninth at best, given that eight of those 13 players have qualified for an additional tournament and cannot be caught by a debutant.
More interesting is to look at who may already have qualified for a wildcard. Let's have a look, in a rough order from most to least likely:
Check - Has two Ro16 appearances and is in GSL3. Can only be overtaken by Idra and TheWind, and it's possible for Clide and Hyperdub to draw level. So he's in.
Idra/TheWind - Each have a Ro16 and Ro32 appearance, and are both in GSL3. At worst, they would end up with a 16/32/64 result, which is behind Check, can be beaten by Clide and Hyperdub, and can be tied by Iron, JookToJung and Polt. Depending on the scoring system, if Leenock makes the round of 16 he could finish ahead of them if a Ro16 finish is worth a lot more than lower finishes. So at worst, they would be in a five-way tie for fifth, and as we have nine guaranteed wildcards, both are S-Class players already.
Clide/Hyperdub - Each have a Ro16 and Ro64 appearance and have qualified for GSL3. They can each only tie with Check, and can overtake Idra and TheWind if results go their way. Players that can finish above them include oGsMC, Polt, JTJ, and depending on the scoring system, Leenock and sanZenith (although one win will see them above sanZenith). Probably close to in already.
Leenock - As the only other player to make the Ro16 previously that has made GSL3 that hasn't already been mentioned, I'll look at him here. Working out exactly what he needs to do is a bit trickier, as not making GSL1 makes it hard to draw direct comparisons, but he is probably close already simply through making it in this time. There are a lot of players that he cannot or is unlikely to catch, but he is also ahead of a lot of players already on account of qualifying this time (SangHo, Lotze etc). He's likely already close to the bubble, and one win will see him surpass LegalMind and draw level with sanZenith.
SanZenith/TankboyPrime/LegalMind - None of these have qualified for GSL3, but have decent enough performances from previous tournaments. They're all currently in a clump somewhere around 5th-9th depending on how the thing is scored and other results yet to happen. San is the most likely to make it, but all of them could be helped out by early failures from the likes of Iron, JTJ and Polt, previous Ro8 players making it back again to open up more wildcards, or players such as Check making a deep enough run so they don't use a wildcard up.
oGsMC/JookToJung/PoltPrime - All are in the GSL3 with a Ro32 and Ro64 appearance from the previous tournament. They are unlikely to get any higher than sixth, as the first five players listed earlier are too far ahead already barring extreme results. Winning their first round match should put them very close, and making the Ro16 should make them close to locks. As they all currently have identical records and probably have a little bit of work to do to get in, their games should be interesting to watch.
TLO - maybe somewhat moot seeing how he's left Korea, but he's already guaranteed to be behind 12 players regardless of results, and in the event that a Ro16 appearance is worth more than a Ro32 + Ro64 appearance, can at best end up in a tie for 18th, which with a maximum of 17 wildcards would mean he can't make it.
I'll expand on this with an edit at some point, looking at some other players and playing with Excel to see what can happen if I meddle with possible scoring systems, and also to make it look prettier, but wanted to throw something out to start with. Anyone pointing out any errors is welcome.
Why everyone makes an assumption that all GSL are worth the same. IMO participating in GSL3 Ro16 could be worth more than GSL1 Ro16 due to the number and overall quality of players participating.
On November 17 2010 01:31 Cikop wrote: Why everyone makes an assumption that all GSL are worth the same. IMO participating in GSL3 Ro16 could be worth more than GSL1 Ro16 due to the number and overall quality of players participating.
I think they just assume that the system isn't subjective and thus no bias can be placed. With that you describe it seems rather unfair and room for lots of bias.
I LOVE Idra... but he will not make S-Class this season. his zvz is trash, it's no secret. did you look at how many zergs qualified? Unless he gets a strait run of Ts, or gets a couple of the 10 or so elusive protoss, he will not make S
or unless he works on nothing but zvz of course (which i'm hoping for) ^^,
On November 17 2010 01:54 SeeDLiNg wrote: I LOVE Idra... but he will not make S-Class this season. his zvz is trash, it's no secret. did you look at how many zergs qualified? Unless he gets a strait run of Ts, or gets a couple of the 10 or so elusive protoss, he will not make S
or unless he works on nothing but zvz of course (which i'm hoping for) ^^,
His ZvZ WAS terrible. How can you be so sure it still is?
On November 17 2010 01:54 SeeDLiNg wrote: I LOVE Idra... but he will not make S-Class this season. his zvz is trash, it's no secret. did you look at how many zergs qualified? Unless he gets a strait run of Ts, or gets a couple of the 10 or so elusive protoss, he will not make S
or unless he works on nothing but zvz of course (which i'm hoping for) ^^,
His ZvZ WAS terrible. How can you be so sure it still is?
I REALLLLY hope he can (and will) make me eat my words
On November 17 2010 01:54 SeeDLiNg wrote: I LOVE Idra... but he will not make S-Class this season. his zvz is trash, it's no secret. did you look at how many zergs qualified? Unless he gets a strait run of Ts, or gets a couple of the 10 or so elusive protoss, he will not make S
or unless he works on nothing but zvz of course (which i'm hoping for) ^^,
But he's already in the round of 64. I think even if he lost his first match, he'd already be S class, just barely.
On November 17 2010 01:54 SeeDLiNg wrote: I LOVE Idra... but he will not make S-Class this season. his zvz is trash, it's no secret. did you look at how many zergs qualified? Unless he gets a strait run of Ts, or gets a couple of the 10 or so elusive protoss, he will not make S
or unless he works on nothing but zvz of course (which i'm hoping for) ^^,
All he had to do to get S-class was to quilify. Doesnt matter what happens from here.
I think Idra has a good chance. Currently there's still 17 spots left in the S-class. If some of the top 8 this year are repeat performers, then we'll have even more spots.
Is there currently a database/listing of player's points (GSL rankings) somewhere?
really? Didn't realize they'd released the specifics on attaining it. I was still under the assumption that it was reaching the Ro-8. If this is true, I'm psyched! Guess I should read the OP better
Thanks so much for analyzing this. It also makes me happy that we are almost guaranteed to have at least 1 Foreigner with S~class. I hope we see some of the new comers make it this round as well.
thanks for the summary!!! Wanted to ask for exactly that after todays qualifier finsihed, because those remaining S-Class spots are even more exciting then whoever wins this season ^.^ But hopefully ret makes it into Ro8, so we have 2 foreigners to cheer for next year
EPT
