[SPL] Week 4: Total War - Page 4

On July 02 2011 18:35 Kiante wrote:
No, the only ambiguity in the playoffs now is whether stx or fox make it in.

On July 02 2011 20:38 Phayt wrote:


Not true. There's a slightly convoluted but entirely possible situation where Oz takes sixth place.

Namely,

Fox must beat STX. This will put STX out, as their point differential will be too high.
Next, Oz has to beat Khan. The bigger the win the better, here.
Finally, Fox needs to lose to Woongjin.

Those three games are the only ones that really matter at this point. If it works out the way I've outlined above, sixth place comes down to point differential, as all three contending teams will be left 24-30. Like I said before, STX would be out in this situation, because assuming they lose their last game puts them at at least -16. Fox and Oz, though, are currently both at -10. If the situation above actually does come to pass, it will come down to how close the matches themselves really were. Either team could still sneak ahead.

Anyways, point is that it is definitely something of a longshot, but Oz could still make the playoffs. Sadly, it's in a way that's out of their hands, now.

On July 02 2011 20:38 Phayt wrote:


Not true. There's a slightly convoluted but entirely possible situation where Oz takes sixth place.

Namely,

Fox must beat STX. This will put STX out, as their point differential will be too high.
Next, Oz has to beat Khan. The bigger the win the better, here.
Finally, Fox needs to lose to Woongjin.

Those three games are the only ones that really matter at this point. If it works out the way I've outlined above, sixth place comes down to point differential, as all three contending teams will be left 24-30. Like I said before, STX would be out in this situation, because assuming they lose their last game puts them at at least -16. Fox and Oz, though, are currently both at -10. If the situation above actually does come to pass, it will come down to how close the matches themselves really were. Either team could still sneak ahead.

Anyways, point is that it is definitely something of a longshot, but Oz could still make the playoffs. Sadly, it's in a way that's out of their hands, now.

On July 02 2011 22:44 baubo wrote:


Percentage-wise, by my estimate...

1. Fox beating STX is roughly 50/50 proposition.
2. Oz beating Khan is 90% proposition. It depends on whether January holds back his rookies who are essentially A-teamers(Reality/Grape/Brave/Turn) and instead go with those no one knows about.
3. Fox losing to the Stars when Stars have nothing to play for is the problem. I'd give Stars 5% chance to win, as their rookies are truly rookies. The 5% comes from some absurd scenario where their coach play their good players.
4. And tie-breaker IMO goes to Oz 80%. This is based on the above scenario unfolding. Basically it would be Oz's differential against Khan vs Fox's differential in their 1 win-1loss against STX and Stars.

Overall, that would make it a 1.8%... I'm not an Oz fan, but I do want to see Jaedong in the playoffs over a bunch of mediocre terrans.