EPTNewbie Student Mafia XXIX - Page 2
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
In this case I will show that Vivax has shown out of game knowledge of alignments that could only come from scum. In post #89 Vivax explains a town read on Kaley that comes mostly “from the gut” while also trying to give real reasoning for it I.e. that Kaley is attacking Rayn. But in post #119 Vivax says that he isn’t sure if Kaley is genuinely pushing Rayn and that he hasn’t read her full post. Therefore the alignment read that Vivax had on Kaley didn’t come from an actual read but was instead manufactured by Vivax ## Vote: Vivax Somewhat tangentially I also believe that, assuming I’m right and Vivax is scum, the other two scum will be very in active as his claim of being role blocked is high reward/high risk as any counter claim would instantly put Vivax on the chopping block while a lack of one could lead towards a ‘confirmed town’ status for Vivax. Assuming a Scum!Vivax I believe the d3 lynch should be RoL since he is an inactive and Vivax put an inexplicable d1 vote on him. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
This vote (#285) strikes me as a pressure vote rather than scum trying to start a d2 mislynch though, there are other easier targets for an early d2 push given that the two flipped townies both town read me right before they flipped. I think scum would be more aware of that and your follow up posts on the vote suggest an attempt at pressuring me to read my alignment rather than a true attempt to get a mislynch. Kelsier stays in the town column for me, I especially like his post #304 it lays out a very townie thought process. His mindset makes sense coming from town and in a game with this few active players I am strongly opposed to a lynch on one then then who is making good posts. Also, although it isn’t a great heuristic, Kelsier has a three page filter in a 16 page game which indicates to me that he is involved in the day to day going’s on in the thread. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
I think what you meant was that no pushback = town!kaley which is a fine argument to make but your post still gives me the heebie-jeebies and I just can’t explain why. Qatol’s post #286 shows that he successfully read Koshi as blue d1. Given that Koshi was pushing two townies, HF and myself, as red for most of n1 I can’t think of another reason for scum to kill Koshi besides his role. (I can’t expect any of you to share my read of this necessarily at this point since I haven’t flipped but you’ll have to trust me on this or return to it after I flip). Based on my gut feelings and this potential scum slip Qatol is second priority for the lynch. Though his push on Vivax has me going back and forth in my head since I happen to think Vivax is scummier than Qatol and I do not think they are scum together since I believe that Vivax’s RB claim is too high risk for a scum team with multiple active members in this town. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
Please provide the reasoning you had for reading Koshi as town, I am still interested in hearing your thoughts. As to Kelsier’s push on me rather than Vivax that you reference in #308 I think it’s clearly a pressure vote rather than a lynch vote. He isn’t pushing my lynch at all, he is discussing it in such a way that appears to be attempting to illicit a reaction from me. Considering his actions from a townie perspective and they follow an internal logic, considering his actions from a scum perspective and they don’t. I don’t like this post by Rayn or his d2 push on Kelsier. I don’t think Rayn is good lynch today but if he survives into d3 I’ll need to reconsider. Again though if Vivax is scum I have a hard time seeing Rayn as his partner. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
On his own he is my third in line for the lynch. Though the Prplhz sheep of Vivax makes me uncomfortable I still think Damdred looks scummy on his own. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
Damdred is scummy on his own. He is third in line for lynch in my mind. I also didn’t like how you sheeped Vivax. Those are unrelated thoughts. You’ll note that I’m not pushing a Damdred lynch because he isn’t my top scum read. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
I’ll be gone for about an hour and then I’ll only have about fifteen minutes before I have to head back to work. I need to hear from you all (especially Prplhz and Kelsier who I know are in the thread right now) We need to consolidate down to two targets for this lynch to force scum to actually make an impactful vote | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
What are your thoughts on my case on him. Qatol: my reasoning for believing that the other two scum are inactive isn’t about their communication it is that the high risk play comes at a time where scum!vivax shouldn’t feel much pressure and, therefore, would only happen if scum!bivax needed to elicit the reaction he got from Rayn because he can’t count on his teammates | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
Who is scummier to you Vivax or Damdred? | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
1) I need to check in on Qatol some more but I currently have him as scum 2) I have Kelsier as a relatively strong town read 3) RoL actually posted, wow 4) I like Meapak’s post, he is thinking about the game with a townie mindset though I don’t find his conclusions convincing. That is: his case(s) put him in the town column but they don’t convince me. If I’m alive tomorrow I’m going to spend some time looking at voting patterns and how wagons developed. Unless we have protective blue roles we need to lynch scum tomorrow | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
On September 09 2018 07:18 kitaman27 wrote: Day 1 Vote Count Kaley [3]: Qatol, raynpelikoneet, Koshi [1]: Sergiovan raynpelikoneet [1]: Kaley Vivax [1]: Holyflare 1]: Koshi RebirthOfLeGenD [1]: Vivax Qatol [1]: Not Voting [4]: Meapak_Ziphh, RebirthOfLeGenD, Damdred, prplhz Kaley is currently the lynch. The deadline is Saturday, Sep 08 10:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in . If there is an error in the vote count, which there probably is, let me know. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
On September 12 2018 07:47 kitaman27 wrote: Day 2 Vote Count Damdred [3]: Vivax,prplhz, raynpelikoneet Vivax [2]: Qatol, Sergiovan Qatol [1]: KelsierSC [0]: Rels [1]: Meapak_Ziphh Sergiovan [0]: Not Voting [3]: RebirthOfLeGendD, Damdred, KelsierSC Damdred is currently the lynch. The deadline is Tuesday, Sep 11 10:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in . If there is an error in the vote count, which there probably is, let me know. | ||
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