[T][M] Resistance VI

On February 12 2017 07:09 sharkie wrote:
Is LightningStrike a seasoned player as well?
Super: lets see how LightningStrike acts

On February 12 2017 07:25 Vivax wrote:


Don't worry you don't have to do much everyone already solved the game just approve RtaniSoul/Swika/yourself/SL and we win the game ez

On February 12 2017 07:30 RtaniSoul wrote:


actually maybe we should just let you lead us. who are the spies ls?

On February 12 2017 07:32 LightningStrike wrote:

Will update in a little bit doing some filter diving into context reading.

On February 12 2017 07:53 RtaniSoul wrote:


>> you have a good read on me, do you?

On February 12 2017 07:57 Vivax wrote:


Lol this is BS I said that people were not supposed to judge EC just based on him getting 2 x replaced.
Given you're scumreading him you should reach the opposite conclusion.

On February 12 2017 07:58 LightningStrike wrote:

I meant in context it was a good thought................

On February 12 2017 08:02 RtaniSoul wrote:


lol >< that's really not how i remember it. i remember taking you in often when i roll scum but placing that aside...

we're still debating. we get the final say if people can't agree, so we're suffering that wonderful doubt that comes with ultimate power! \o/

that's why i'm prodding at you cause i think i can read you better than most here and it would make our lives infinitely easier

we know we want to take silver

EC is almost confirmed scum for us
super i haven't liked all game
grack we just can't trust...like gut and logic says he's the most likely spy who failed the mission

that leaves vivax, sharkie, sl and you

personally i'm pretty okay with rolling the dice on sl this game based off feels
but vivax, sharkie and your slot we've been waffling back and forth on, and lex isn't as comfortable with sl anyway :/ (lex has had sudden doubts on sharkie because grack's activity kinda looks maybe town lol >< i've been going with his read on sharkie because he was so certain on it)

On February 12 2017 08:02 Vivax wrote:


Not really a thought, more of a piece of advice. But fine. It just seemed odd to me that you scumread EC on one hand and then TR me for what could be called a soft defense.

On February 12 2017 08:07 RtaniSoul wrote:


>> those are not recent games my friiiiend -rsoul ego has been engaged!-

On February 12 2017 08:09 RtaniSoul wrote:


shhh lies lol ><

what team would you put up?

On February 12 2017 08:14 RtaniSoul wrote:
are you asking me if i'm town? cause like...that's a bit silly ls xP

OH YEAH I'M TOTALLY A SPY!! i just don't get why people simply don't ask me o.0

On February 12 2017 08:16 Vivax wrote:


Lacks Swika, I don't like it

On February 12 2017 08:13 LightningStrike wrote:

Myself, Vivax, Superbia, and You/Lex.
I know my alignment.
Vivax looks townie to me.
Superbia looks okay and would willing to test to see if the mission gets sabotaged by him.
Same thing about you/Lex although your waffling is starting to be a bit townish for you Tina?

On February 12 2017 08:21 RtaniSoul wrote:


eh...it is and it isn't. i can tunnel the shit out of people as town too *coughtumblecough*

On February 14 2017 02:39 RtaniSoul wrote:
Alright, here's where I'm at.

Starting assumptions
Silver/me
Starting out with Silver and myself being in all effect confirmed town. I already had a very strong feeling on Silver being town before, and it's only compounded through dick move analysis after silver went emo on a mild amount of shade thrown on them by sharkie. We've put in too much effort to be a spy and that should be obvious by now. If Silver is spy, and to the rest if we're spy, the game is by all means over.

EC
Next, EC is confirmed mafia. Throughout the game he has taken very floaty stances as mentioned by I think silverika. His Grack townread came off a shaky SL scumread that when challenged, he almost immediately dropped. He's also dropped off the map and though some people really don't like this argument, the fact that the slot's been replaced twice already, including once from HtS whom has played through a game where she was quite sick as town all but condemns them in our eyes.

Summary
This leaves 2 spies in a group of 6, of which at least one is between sharkie/grack/vivax. To make things simpler, I will attempt to rule out certain combinations that don't make much sense and attempt to come to a set of scenario's where we can guarantee a win by mission 5.

Connections
Super
Super/EC seems unlikely at first, especially if the remaining mafia is not Vivax. They both voted against the first and second mission that went through, with the second one failing. It is important to note that spies don't have the ability to communicate with one another, but in a scenario in which Sharkie or Grack is mafia, 2 spies voted against a mission with a spy on it and all 6 resistance players plus the spy voted for it.

On the other hand, during EC's mission, he said:

For his nomination he didn't want to swap grack in for super despite thread pressure, for which there's little reason for him to do so unless that would change the spy total to either 2 or 0. This leads me to believe that Super and Grack are opposite alignments, and thus Super is never mafia with Grack. I still see it as a possibility however that Super is mafia with EC, which would suggest to me that the only viable combination with Super as mafia is Super/Sharkie/EC.

Tumblewood/LightningStrike
TW/LS is an interesting slot as well. His nomination was TW/Grack/Vivax. If he's a spy, it doesn't really make sense for him to send himself with another spy, though it's possible he didn't believe the mission would go through. He's hardballed on Vivax being town and on Sharkie being mafia leading me to believe he's most likely to be a spy with Grack. Though he went softer on sharkie later and scumread them about equally, I don't believe TW has the balls to hard townread AND send spy teammate Vivax on a mission with him.

What speaks in favour of TW being mafia is that EC voted for his mission. This is also something pointing towards one of Grack/Vivax being mafia rather than Sharkie. The two combinations I can see for TW/LS are TW/Grack/EC and to a lesser extent TW/Sharkie/EC.

Sicklucker
Sicklucker has been the punching bag for most of the game and has not been on any mission other than the unanimously rejected mission of RtaniSoul, sicklucker, Silverika, Vivax which provides little information. A large point in his favour is that EC nominated a Super/TW/Silver team, and with Silver being for all intents confirmed, we have to conclude that either EC sent an all-town team or SL is town.

In the scenario in which EC sent an all-town team, we have to dig a little deeper. Vivax mentioned halfway through the approval process of M1 that he will treat SL as perma scum. Half a day later, he's considering a scenario in which SL is town. His opinion change on SL to potentially add him on a mission as the first person to openly do so doesn't feel like a likely spy/spy scenario due to the favorable position Vivax was in at the time. Considering this combination unlikely.

I don't believe in a Sharkie/SL team because of this post:

Sharkie is talking to SL as if he thinks SL is town. Given the amount of suspicion ousted towards SL at the time, this combination seems exceedingly unlikely.

It's also hard to see a Grack/SL spy team due to the incredible certainty in which Grack put away SL as mafia, though possible. This post also doesn't feel spy on spy:

Unless we're talking Toad/VE TL Mafia LI kind of hate it seems rather unlikely, thus I consider SL to basically be town, with an outside chance of being mafia with Vivax or Grack.

Conclusions
Combinations that I view as plausible:
EC/Sharkie/Super
EC/Grack/LS
EC/Sharkie/LS

Combinations that I view as possible but unlikely:
EC/Vivax/SL
[gap]
EC/Vivax/Super
EC/Grack/SL

This excludes the scenario's in which two of the people in the second mission are mafia, and doesn't go into my personal feelings of the slots itself (other than EC/Silver/me).

Going forward
Myself/Silver/SL/Vivax is the mission with the highest probability of success. Presuming my analysis is correct, they are either both spies, or, far more likely, neither are spies. The only contingency I haven't looked at for this is whether it's likely Vivax is a spybuddy with Grack or Sharkie, though my initial experience throughout the thread suggests it isn't the case.

On February 14 2017 07:03 RtaniSoul wrote:
I would've felt a lot better if Vivax voted for and LS voted against :/

On February 15 2017 07:38 Grackaroni wrote:
We might just be waiting for EC to show up to concede.

On February 15 2017 07:44 RtaniSoul wrote:
poor ls :/ you're just so not town this game, are you? lol ><

On February 16 2017 14:20 sharkie wrote:


I never framed you though. :o



My reason for your motivation as a spymaster was that you had the two worst players in the game as team members. :p



I was at worst a 50/50 with Grack and TW was at least a tossup between super and himself.
You, just made it open that you were a spy and then even yayvoted a decisive vote for an all town team. -.-