EPTOn February 14 2017 02:39 RtaniSoul wrote:
Alright, here's where I'm at.
Starting assumptions
Silver/me
Starting out with Silver and myself being in all effect confirmed town. I already had a very strong feeling on Silver being town before, and it's only compounded through dick move analysis after silver went emo on a mild amount of shade thrown on them by sharkie. We've put in too much effort to be a spy and that should be obvious by now. If Silver is spy, and to the rest if we're spy, the game is by all means over.
EC
Next, EC is confirmed mafia. Throughout the game he has taken very floaty stances as mentioned by I think silverika. His Grack townread came off a shaky SL scumread that when challenged, he almost immediately dropped. He's also dropped off the map and though some people really don't like this argument, the fact that the slot's been replaced twice already, including once from HtS whom has played through a game where she was quite sick as town all but condemns them in our eyes.
Summary
This leaves 2 spies in a group of 6, of which at least one is between sharkie/grack/vivax. To make things simpler, I will attempt to rule out certain combinations that don't make much sense and attempt to come to a set of scenario's where we can guarantee a win by mission 5.
Connections
Super
Super/EC seems unlikely at first, especially if the remaining mafia is not Vivax. They both voted against the first and second mission that went through, with the second one failing. It is important to note that spies don't have the ability to communicate with one another, but in a scenario in which Sharkie or Grack is mafia, 2 spies voted against a mission with a spy on it and all 6 resistance players plus the spy voted for it.
On the other hand, during EC's mission, he said:
For his nomination he didn't want to swap grack in for super despite thread pressure, for which there's little reason for him to do so unless that would change the spy total to either 2 or 0. This leads me to believe that Super and Grack are opposite alignments, and thus Super is never mafia with Grack. I still see it as a possibility however that Super is mafia with EC, which would suggest to me that the only viable combination with Super as mafia is Super/Sharkie/EC.
Tumblewood/LightningStrike
TW/LS is an interesting slot as well. His nomination was TW/Grack/Vivax. If he's a spy, it doesn't really make sense for him to send himself with another spy, though it's possible he didn't believe the mission would go through. He's hardballed on Vivax being town and on Sharkie being mafia leading me to believe he's most likely to be a spy with Grack. Though he went softer on sharkie later and scumread them about equally, I don't believe TW has the balls to hard townread AND send spy teammate Vivax on a mission with him.
What speaks in favour of TW being mafia is that EC voted for his mission. This is also something pointing towards one of Grack/Vivax being mafia rather than Sharkie. The two combinations I can see for TW/LS are TW/Grack/EC and to a lesser extent TW/Sharkie/EC.
Sicklucker
Sicklucker has been the punching bag for most of the game and has not been on any mission other than the unanimously rejected mission of RtaniSoul, sicklucker, Silverika, Vivax which provides little information. A large point in his favour is that EC nominated a Super/TW/Silver team, and with Silver being for all intents confirmed, we have to conclude that either EC sent an all-town team or SL is town.
In the scenario in which EC sent an all-town team, we have to dig a little deeper. Vivax mentioned halfway through the approval process of M1 that he will treat SL as perma scum. Half a day later, he's considering a scenario in which SL is town. His opinion change on SL to potentially add him on a mission as the first person to openly do so doesn't feel like a likely spy/spy scenario due to the favorable position Vivax was in at the time. Considering this combination unlikely.
I don't believe in a Sharkie/SL team because of this post:
Sharkie is talking to SL as if he thinks SL is town. Given the amount of suspicion ousted towards SL at the time, this combination seems exceedingly unlikely.
It's also hard to see a Grack/SL spy team due to the incredible certainty in which Grack put away SL as mafia, though possible. This post also doesn't feel spy on spy:
Unless we're talking Toad/VE TL Mafia LI kind of hate it seems rather unlikely, thus I consider SL to basically be town, with an outside chance of being mafia with Vivax or Grack.
Conclusions
Combinations that I view as plausible:
EC/Sharkie/Super
EC/Grack/LS
EC/Sharkie/LS
Combinations that I view as possible but unlikely:
EC/Vivax/SL
[gap]
EC/Vivax/Super
EC/Grack/SL
This excludes the scenario's in which two of the people in the second mission are mafia, and doesn't go into my personal feelings of the slots itself (other than EC/Silver/me).
Going forward
Myself/Silver/SL/Vivax is the mission with the highest probability of success. Presuming my analysis is correct, they are either both spies, or, far more likely, neither are spies. The only contingency I haven't looked at for this is whether it's likely Vivax is a spybuddy with Grack or Sharkie, though my initial experience throughout the thread suggests it isn't the case.
Alright, here's where I'm at.
Starting assumptions
Silver/me
Starting out with Silver and myself being in all effect confirmed town. I already had a very strong feeling on Silver being town before, and it's only compounded through dick move analysis after silver went emo on a mild amount of shade thrown on them by sharkie. We've put in too much effort to be a spy and that should be obvious by now. If Silver is spy, and to the rest if we're spy, the game is by all means over.
EC
Next, EC is confirmed mafia. Throughout the game he has taken very floaty stances as mentioned by I think silverika. His Grack townread came off a shaky SL scumread that when challenged, he almost immediately dropped. He's also dropped off the map and though some people really don't like this argument, the fact that the slot's been replaced twice already, including once from HtS whom has played through a game where she was quite sick as town all but condemns them in our eyes.
Summary
This leaves 2 spies in a group of 6, of which at least one is between sharkie/grack/vivax. To make things simpler, I will attempt to rule out certain combinations that don't make much sense and attempt to come to a set of scenario's where we can guarantee a win by mission 5.
Connections
Super
Super/EC seems unlikely at first, especially if the remaining mafia is not Vivax. They both voted against the first and second mission that went through, with the second one failing. It is important to note that spies don't have the ability to communicate with one another, but in a scenario in which Sharkie or Grack is mafia, 2 spies voted against a mission with a spy on it and all 6 resistance players plus the spy voted for it.
On the other hand, during EC's mission, he said:
For his nomination he didn't want to swap grack in for super despite thread pressure, for which there's little reason for him to do so unless that would change the spy total to either 2 or 0. This leads me to believe that Super and Grack are opposite alignments, and thus Super is never mafia with Grack. I still see it as a possibility however that Super is mafia with EC, which would suggest to me that the only viable combination with Super as mafia is Super/Sharkie/EC.
Tumblewood/LightningStrike
TW/LS is an interesting slot as well. His nomination was TW/Grack/Vivax. If he's a spy, it doesn't really make sense for him to send himself with another spy, though it's possible he didn't believe the mission would go through. He's hardballed on Vivax being town and on Sharkie being mafia leading me to believe he's most likely to be a spy with Grack. Though he went softer on sharkie later and scumread them about equally, I don't believe TW has the balls to hard townread AND send spy teammate Vivax on a mission with him.
What speaks in favour of TW being mafia is that EC voted for his mission. This is also something pointing towards one of Grack/Vivax being mafia rather than Sharkie. The two combinations I can see for TW/LS are TW/Grack/EC and to a lesser extent TW/Sharkie/EC.
Sicklucker
Sicklucker has been the punching bag for most of the game and has not been on any mission other than the unanimously rejected mission of RtaniSoul, sicklucker, Silverika, Vivax which provides little information. A large point in his favour is that EC nominated a Super/TW/Silver team, and with Silver being for all intents confirmed, we have to conclude that either EC sent an all-town team or SL is town.
In the scenario in which EC sent an all-town team, we have to dig a little deeper. Vivax mentioned halfway through the approval process of M1 that he will treat SL as perma scum. Half a day later, he's considering a scenario in which SL is town. His opinion change on SL to potentially add him on a mission as the first person to openly do so doesn't feel like a likely spy/spy scenario due to the favorable position Vivax was in at the time. Considering this combination unlikely.
I don't believe in a Sharkie/SL team because of this post:
Sharkie is talking to SL as if he thinks SL is town. Given the amount of suspicion ousted towards SL at the time, this combination seems exceedingly unlikely.
It's also hard to see a Grack/SL spy team due to the incredible certainty in which Grack put away SL as mafia, though possible. This post also doesn't feel spy on spy:
Unless we're talking Toad/VE TL Mafia LI kind of hate it seems rather unlikely, thus I consider SL to basically be town, with an outside chance of being mafia with Vivax or Grack.
Conclusions
Combinations that I view as plausible:
EC/Sharkie/Super
EC/Grack/LS
EC/Sharkie/LS
Combinations that I view as possible but unlikely:
EC/Vivax/SL
[gap]
EC/Vivax/Super
EC/Grack/SL
This excludes the scenario's in which two of the people in the second mission are mafia, and doesn't go into my personal feelings of the slots itself (other than EC/Silver/me).
Going forward
Myself/Silver/SL/Vivax is the mission with the highest probability of success. Presuming my analysis is correct, they are either both spies, or, far more likely, neither are spies. The only contingency I haven't looked at for this is whether it's likely Vivax is a spybuddy with Grack or Sharkie, though my initial experience throughout the thread suggests it isn't the case.
I can't speak for Tumblewood as he was the one playing before I replaced in but I am town this game and approving the team Superbia put in.
