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On August 31 2015 12:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Trfel you're hurting my head. Why in the world is Palmar confirmed town? Why are you so ironclad on this fact? Please, please, please ignore this.
Imagine for a moment that I gave you indisputable evidence that I am in fact town, and Palmar is also town.
I'm telling you that the scum team is KelsierSC, Vivax, and deconduo. For reasons previously stated, though if you would like me to clarify or further explain anything, I can do so.
Do you agree, or do you disagree, and why?
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Just a brief post before bed.
KelsierSC is confirmed mafia because he voted less than 20 seconds before End of Day. Town simply doesn't do that. It was very intentional. There is absolutely no way that he is town.
deconduo
It's time I shared my reasons, I've been waiting to see how deconduo's behavior changed, but time has only confirmed my suspicions. Because some of you hate meta, I'll leave the meta for the end.
The main section of this post is fairly long. It's for those of you who can't seem to understand my posts, explained in great detail. There is a summary at the end.
Looking at Day 1, deconduo does three notable things. First, he votes for MoosyDoosy and then unvotes a day later and says that MoosyDoosy is probably town. I don't think that this is alignment indicative. Second, he says that he doesn't want to lynch justanothertownie because the case against him feels weak, but he says this after the wagon on justanothertownie loses steam (so I also don't think this is very alignment indicative). Third, he supports the Hopeless1der lynch. The rest of his posts are useless/filler.
On August 28 2015 03:25 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 03:16 KelsierSC wrote:On August 28 2015 03:13 deconduo wrote:On August 28 2015 03:09 KelsierSC wrote:On August 28 2015 03:05 deconduo wrote:
I'm pretty sure Kesier and Moosy are town. I like the cases against Hopeless and the trfel more than the one against JAT at the moment. I'm gonna read a bit more and make a decision. so you would only lynch between hopeless and trefl? At the moment yeah. The case against JAT just feels the same as the case against ruxxar in TSM. I mean why do you like the case on hopeless anyway, because wave is pushing it? do you town read him? Nope. Mainly because he lurked just as much in TSM and was scum there. Also this is pretty unforgivable: Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 01:11 Hopeless1der wrote:
Oh god the spampocalypse. I was not prepared for this. I'm going to go full blazinghand and use his RNG methods while I read the thread and then yolo it.
RNG being this (post's ID)Mod13 (0=decon, 1=wave, 2=vivax etc) Here's the basis of his read on Hopeless1der. Okay, sure. Then he makes a few posts about Hopeless1der:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 28 2015 04:57 deconduo wrote:
##Vote: Hopeless1der
I'm not quite sure how no one is actually voting for him right now. On August 28 2015 05:32 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 05:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On August 28 2015 05:26 marvellosity wrote:
i'm gonna end up spite lynching one of hopeless and bf and it will be terrible Well, or one of them is scum. (or both lol) Is there any reason to lynch BF over hopeless? Hopeless has been worse on every count as far as I can tell. On August 28 2015 05:35 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 05:33 Vivax wrote:On August 28 2015 05:32 deconduo wrote:On August 28 2015 05:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On August 28 2015 05:26 marvellosity wrote:
i'm gonna end up spite lynching one of hopeless and bf and it will be terrible Well, or one of them is scum. (or both lol) Is there any reason to lynch BF over hopeless? Hopeless has been worse on every count as far as I can tell. Do explain in detail, we need to consolidate. Can I warm you up for a Trfel lynch? BF and hopeless feel more craphshooty than him. BF has more posts, Hopeless has just come from a game where he lurked as scum, and Hopeless RNGd a vote whereas at least BF jumped on the wagon at the time. On August 28 2015 05:35 deconduo wrote:
Though at least hopeless is here now, and posting. On August 28 2015 05:56 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 05:54 rsoultin wrote:On August 28 2015 05:50 justanothertownie wrote:On August 28 2015 05:47 rsoultin wrote:
voting bf
found the cc read
jat talk to me about it kk cause i was just scanning and i do better realtime
what are all these inconsistencies and how do they make him mafia specifically? Read the fucking post. please work with me so we can consolidate -_- i've got a game i'm cohosting and this and i'm behind. surely you can get that Then consolidate on hopeless. There's no reason to vote for BF over hopeless: Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 05:35 deconduo wrote:On August 28 2015 05:33 Vivax wrote:On August 28 2015 05:32 deconduo wrote:On August 28 2015 05:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On August 28 2015 05:26 marvellosity wrote:
i'm gonna end up spite lynching one of hopeless and bf and it will be terrible Well, or one of them is scum. (or both lol) Is there any reason to lynch BF over hopeless? Hopeless has been worse on every count as far as I can tell. Do explain in detail, we need to consolidate. Can I warm you up for a Trfel lynch? BF and hopeless feel more craphshooty than him. BF has more posts, Hopeless has just come from a game where he lurked as scum, and Hopeless RNGd a vote whereas at least BF jumped on the wagon at the time. Then he shows up, posts this and fucks off agian: Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 05:42 Hopeless1der wrote:
We should lynch Mr.CC because RNGesus said so On August 28 2015 06:02 deconduo wrote:Nothing, but I think hopeless is a better lynch today. Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 06:00 rsoultin wrote:
this is literally the only read bf made all game
which granted it makes sense he votes who marv is voting so that at least can be explained but i find it fucking odd that he's read enough of the thread to have a read on marv but nothing else Yes but at least he's given a read, which hopeless hasn't. On August 28 2015 06:07 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 06:06 rsoultin wrote:On August 28 2015 06:05 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:On August 28 2015 06:04 rsoultin wrote:On August 28 2015 06:02 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:On August 28 2015 06:01 rsoultin wrote:On August 28 2015 06:00 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Moosy you really need to explain that vote before I get you lynched not lynching moosy Then someone needs to explain why moosy put me in his town circle, said he wasnt going to lynch me day 1 / 2 and then votes on me for no reason. ask him On August 28 2015 06:00 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Moosy you really need to explain that vote before I get you lynched You literally quoted that post. C'mon Rsoultin. lol yeah i realized that after the snap post xP i dunnae i just know i'm not lynching him for that decon...your issue with hopeless is specifically...rng? 1. Same meta as TSM 2. RNG'd a vote 3. Came back to the thread, posted a few things and stuck with the RNG vote. Also add VE to the town list. On August 28 2015 06:33 deconduo wrote:
I'd be OK with consolidating on BF, though I still think hopeless is a better lynch. Trfel would be OK with me as well, but might be harder to get votes for. And a few more. You get the idea, though. He makes a lot of posts saying that he'd rather lynch Hopeless1der than boxerfred.
So you have deconduo being invested in the game, and pushing for Hopeless1der instead of boxerfred in a reasonable way. What's the problem?
43 minutes before the deadline, deconduo says that he is switching to mobile and should still be around for the deadline. He drops in and makes three posts after this. However, even though Hopeless1der returns to the thread and makes a post 13 minutes before the deadline (a minute before deconduo's final post of the day), and another post a minute later, deconduo doesn't respond to this at all and vanishes. Because deconduo's vote on Hopeless1der is half based on Hopeless1der's meta of not posting as mafia, you would expect him to be interested.
Okay, so he was on mobile, he was busy. Something came up, and he couldn't be around for the deadline. What's the problem?
Deconduo returns about a day and 12 hours later, at the start of Day 2. He posts this:On August 29 2015 19:35 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 06:53 Trfel wrote:
Lynch Hopeless1der. He is much more likely to be scum than boxerfred.
Boxerfred's filter makes sense from the busy/frustrated town perspective, even if it's annoying.
Hopeless1der isn't completely clueless. He was around a lot more in the mafia QT last game than he was posting in the thread. He signed up for a large game, he confirmed for the game in reasonable time. He said he would play. He didn't. His few posts this game have been unconvincing and basically what I would expect from mafia.
I am confident that Hopeless1der is mafia, I am not confident in boxerfred.
Is this an issue of associations with my alignment, as I pushed Hopeless1der first? If hopeless flips scum (which I'm pretty sure he will) I think this post puts trfel in the towncamp. He was one of the people actually pushing for a hopeless lynch over boxer. So, he still thinks that Hopeless1der is mafia.
Imagine for a moment that you are town!deconduo here, early in Day 2. You have a confident scumread in Hopeless1der, largely due to his meta of not playing as mafia, which you observed last game. You made a bunch of posts trying to convince people to lynch Hopeless1der, and were actually invested in the lynch. Then something came up, and you came back over a day later. You look at the game, and realize that they didn't lynch Hopeless1der, they lynched boxerfred instead, and he flipped town. And you still think that Hopeless1der is mafia.
You might be frustrated here, you might be mad here. You might look at the people who supported lynching boxerfred and blame them for the mislynch. But your main priority is to figure out if Hopeless1der did anything to change your scumread on him, your top scumread. Then, you want to shout at people and make them actually lynch Hopeless1der this time.
Deconduo doesn't do this. Instead, he makes these two posts:On August 29 2015 19:35 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2015 06:53 Trfel wrote:
Lynch Hopeless1der. He is much more likely to be scum than boxerfred.
Boxerfred's filter makes sense from the busy/frustrated town perspective, even if it's annoying.
Hopeless1der isn't completely clueless. He was around a lot more in the mafia QT last game than he was posting in the thread. He signed up for a large game, he confirmed for the game in reasonable time. He said he would play. He didn't. His few posts this game have been unconvincing and basically what I would expect from mafia.
I am confident that Hopeless1der is mafia, I am not confident in boxerfred.
Is this an issue of associations with my alignment, as I pushed Hopeless1der first? If hopeless flips scum (which I'm pretty sure he will) I think this post puts trfel in the towncamp. He was one of the people actually pushing for a hopeless lynch over boxer. On August 30 2015 04:56 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2015 04:41 Trfel wrote:
How about, I think that Hopeless1der is very likely to be town and would be very sad if he were lynched today. What made you change your mind on him? And then vanishes until End of Day. He's not actually pushing for Hopeless1der to be lynched at all. He's not using any of the influence provided to him by the cop check, not making his voice heard. He doesn't even bother responding to why I changed my mind on Hopeless1der, which ought to be extremely interesting to him. He eventually ends up switching to Hopeless1der without ever commenting on my explanation.
His activity went down after the claimed green check on him, instead of being able to voice his opinions and have people trust him. This is not a town reaction (unless the person in question is perpetually lazy, more on this in the meta section).
In Summary
For those of you who couldn't follow the large amounts of words above, of which the intention was to try to make this as clear as possible, because people seem to have trouble comprehending my posts. What I'm trying to say is really quite simple.
1. Deconduo did not re-evaluate his top scumread, Hopeless1der, after the Day 1 lynch. He did not seem interested in following up the lynch or pushing Hopeless1der Day 2, despite seeming very invested in lynching Hopeless1der Day 1. This suggests that his desire to lynch Hopeless1der was fake.
2. Deconduo's activity plummeted after people stopped being suspicious of him, and after the green check. He's used the townreads to avoid playing the game instead of to make people listen.
Meta
This case falls apart if deconduo is actually an extremely lazy player who is more interested in not dying than finding scum, and is willing to use a green check to not read the thread and do nothing.
+ Show Spoiler +Here's a post from Artanis[Xp] (town) in Tropical Storm Mini Mafia, with regards to deconduo (also town). On August 12 2015 23:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2015 23:22 rsoultin wrote:
thoughts on condor, then?
or prp lol >< Deconduo is weird. His posts haven't had any focus. Actually he might be my preferred lynch candidate for today but something really silly is making me hedge, which is this: Show nested quote +On August 12 2015 06:01 deconduo wrote:On August 12 2015 05:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
deconduo could you please do something useful? Like tell people not to claim their hurricane name. Cos apparently that's pretty useful. The arrogance in that even when he hasn't really done much leads me to believe he actually believes he's contributing, so meh. He says that deconduo actually believes he is doing something useful, and he's right. Deconduo tried to prevent people from claiming something that could potentially get them killed by mafia, which he believed was extremely important. He was lynched Day 1 in this game. He came back and kept posting in the Obs QT, showing an actual interest and investment in the game.
Not entirely conclusive, but I don't feel like deconduo would be this lazy as town. He would actually investigate and push things.
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Mafia team is Vivax, KelsierSC, and deconduo. If that is wrong, next two most likely are justanothertownie and VisceraEyes.
ahahaha
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Look Trfel, if you are masons palmar will surely tell us at some point. There is ni reaaon to panic unless you aren't even though you are both terrible for not claiming earlier when I told you to. This scrambly lynch is your fault because you guys couldn't be towny and didn't claim before it was too late.
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I will humor you and consider you 2 masons for now but the first thing BOTH of you do day3 is hardclaim or whoever is alive needs to lynch you with fire.
So if we assume this then your early Palmar comment was cleary some sort of shitty breadcrumb and I noticed something that was in fact not natural. AND PALMAR FUCKING KNEW THIS AND STILL PUSHED ME FOR IT. That's even more retarded then his push would be otherwise. Literally bush league level of play.
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On August 31 2015 17:12 justanothertownie wrote:
I will humor you and consider you 2 masons for now but the first thing BOTH of you do day3 is hardclaim or whoever is alive needs to lynch you with fire.
So if we assume this then your early Palmar comment was cleary some sort of shitty breadcrumb and I noticed something that was in fact not natural. AND PALMAR FUCKING KNEW THIS AND STILL PUSHED ME FOR IT. That's even more retarded then his push would be otherwise. Literally bush league level of play.
such mad 
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Also not weekend anymore. I have a feeling I'll survive the night so I'm giving this game one more shot for solvage over the next 3 days.
there's like.... 10 people left, in the best of worlds 4 of them are confirmed (yes trfel and I are masons, I'm done trolling... sorry about that).
this means we literally have 3 mafia in 6 people. If we can't figure out the mafia in
Moosy
jat
CC
Vivax
VE
Ksc
we suck anyway.
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Re: tinfoil hats scenario.
If anyone doubts trfel and I are actually masons well... we have been hard, hard, hard defending each other for no good reasons since back on day 1. (if you want to know what's been going on in our mason qt, the answer is very little. we both seem to take the approach of mostly just posting our thoughts into the thread instead of keeping them secret).
marv/decon. The only scenario I'm worried about is if they're both mafia. If one of them is mafia it is probably statisically best to ignore them and search for 2/6 mafia in the group of remaining players.
I think we mass-claim tomorrow, with even doctors claiming, mostly because no one else should be blue than marv/trfel/I for the game to be balanced... in most situations.
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On August 31 2015 18:37 Palmar wrote:
Re: tinfoil hats scenario.
If anyone doubts trfel and I are actually masons well... we have been hard, hard, hard defending each other for no good reasons since back on day 1. (if you want to know what's been going on in our mason qt, the answer is very little. we both seem to take the approach of mostly just posting our thoughts into the thread instead of keeping them secret).
marv/decon. The only scenario I'm worried about is if they're both mafia. If one of them is mafia it is probably statisically best to ignore them and search for 2/6 mafia in the group of remaining players.
I think we mass-claim tomorrow, with even doctors claiming, mostly because no one else should be blue than marv/trfel/I for the game to be balanced... in most situations.
Marvs claim only makes sense as mafia if they are both scum anyways. Why would he remove lynchbait deconduo from the lynchpool? He doesn't need the towncred himself.
The possible scenarios are in my opinion
1) both town
2) both mafia
3) deconduo was framed/gf
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And yes, you 2 being masons makes a ton of sense hence why I thought it was the case n1 already. But you need to stick to this.
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On August 31 2015 18:48 justanothertownie wrote:
And yes, you 2 being masons makes a ton of sense hence why I thought it was the case n1 already. But you need to stick to this.
I might, I might also retract.
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I guess we re-read marv (sigh) tomorrow to figure out if there is even the slightest chance of him being mafia.
I kinda wanna say he's just town and I don't have to worry about it.
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There is a very easy way to verify you are both masons together. Pick a time, and within 5 seconds of each other post both:
- The solution to a relatively complicated equation
- And the equation itself.
For example something like:
On August 31 2015 13:00 Palmar wrote:
23
On August 31 2015 13:00 Trfel wrote:
((127 * 6) + 12 - 567) / (3 + (12/2))
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On August 31 2015 18:59 deconduo wrote:There is a very easy way to verify you are both masons together. Pick a time, and within 5 seconds of each other post both: - The solution to a relatively complicated equation - And the equation itself. For example something like:
Cool stuff. The problem is that they can do the same as mafia :p
And yes, it is tempting to just accept marv as town and move on from there because then we just leave Palmar/Trfel alive until LYLO and have a pretty small pool to pick out the mafia.
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On August 31 2015 18:59 deconduo wrote:There is a very easy way to verify you are both masons together. Pick a time, and within 5 seconds of each other post both: - The solution to a relatively complicated equation - And the equation itself. For example something like:
I think this is against the spirit of the game and I'm just not going to do it.
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On August 31 2015 19:44 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 18:59 deconduo wrote:There is a very easy way to verify you are both masons together. Pick a time, and within 5 seconds of each other post both: - The solution to a relatively complicated equation - And the equation itself. For example something like: On August 31 2015 13:00 Palmar wrote:
23 On August 31 2015 13:00 Trfel wrote:
((127 * 6) + 12 - 567) / (3 + (12/2))
I think this is against the spirit of the game and I'm just not going to do it.
It is irrelevant anyways. It would only reveal if at least one of you is town and VT instead of mason since this wouldn't prove if you are mason or mafia.
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On August 31 2015 12:47 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 12:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Trfel you're hurting my head. Why in the world is Palmar confirmed town? Why are you so ironclad on this fact? Please, please, please ignore this. Imagine for a moment that I gave you indisputable evidence that I am in fact town, and Palmar is also town. I'm telling you that the scum team is KelsierSC, Vivax, and deconduo. For reasons previously stated, though if you would like me to clarify or further explain anything, I can do so. Do you agree, or do you disagree, and why?
If I assume that you and Palmar are confirmed town then yes, I would have to say that your case against deconduo is very compelling.
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On August 31 2015 22:08 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 12:47 Trfel wrote:On August 31 2015 12:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Trfel you're hurting my head. Why in the world is Palmar confirmed town? Why are you so ironclad on this fact? Please, please, please ignore this. Imagine for a moment that I gave you indisputable evidence that I am in fact town, and Palmar is also town. I'm telling you that the scum team is KelsierSC, Vivax, and deconduo. For reasons previously stated, though if you would like me to clarify or further explain anything, I can do so. Do you agree, or do you disagree, and why? If I assume that you and Palmar are confirmed town then yes, I would have to say that your case against deconduo is very compelling.
Why don't you comment on the other 2 mafiareads instead of the greencheck?!
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On August 31 2015 22:09 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 22:08 MoosyDoosy wrote:On August 31 2015 12:47 Trfel wrote:On August 31 2015 12:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Trfel you're hurting my head. Why in the world is Palmar confirmed town? Why are you so ironclad on this fact? Please, please, please ignore this. Imagine for a moment that I gave you indisputable evidence that I am in fact town, and Palmar is also town. I'm telling you that the scum team is KelsierSC, Vivax, and deconduo. For reasons previously stated, though if you would like me to clarify or further explain anything, I can do so. Do you agree, or do you disagree, and why? If I assume that you and Palmar are confirmed town then yes, I would have to say that your case against deconduo is very compelling. Why don't you comment on the other 2 mafiareads instead of the greencheck?!
KSC certainly looks scummy for that last minute vote. I'll have to look at Vivax again tho. -.-
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On August 31 2015 22:08 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 12:47 Trfel wrote:On August 31 2015 12:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Trfel you're hurting my head. Why in the world is Palmar confirmed town? Why are you so ironclad on this fact? Please, please, please ignore this. Imagine for a moment that I gave you indisputable evidence that I am in fact town, and Palmar is also town. I'm telling you that the scum team is KelsierSC, Vivax, and deconduo. For reasons previously stated, though if you would like me to clarify or further explain anything, I can do so. Do you agree, or do you disagree, and why? If I assume that you and Palmar are confirmed town then yes, I would have to say that your case against deconduo is very compelling. Why does my alignment affect how compelling the case is? (actually curious what you're thinking, not criticizing)
(well okay, not criticizing yet, anyway)
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EPT
