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Shit, well least I know I had a solid read on KSC most of the game.
Ok, so based on what we now know regarding the day 2 lynch I find it super unlikely that there was any mafia on the rayn lynch.
JJ effectively preserved the wagon when KSC and rels switched off rayn and has been pretty towny all game.
I could probably tinfoil damdred and fidei being the last 2 mafia alive, but... Meh. Only paranoid thoughts and the notion that Damdred is totally willing to buss keep this thought alive, by and large these 2 have been contributing and helping to push the game forward.
So this leaves:
Obi
Rit
Geript
Now whats odd is that both geript and rit have had greenchecks on them, but something tells me that Obi flipping will not end the game. Rels was also fairly adiment about rit being mafia even though he said he had a green check on him.
I wonder why that is...
Personally I feel like I want to look at Rit and geript in greater depth today.
Also, what do we think... 2 mafia left or 1 ?
If theres 2 left I have a hard time seeing anyone on a team with Obi.
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On August 31 2015 09:15 JudgeJudy wrote:![[image loading]](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m9010sXDqf1qdhag9o1_500.gif) Just read through every remaining players filter this game. I think I have a preferred lynch for today, but I want to check on a few more things. I'll try to summarize my thoughts, but it's probably going to take a while since there are a lot of angles that I'm looking at. Stay tuned 
Please tell me it's damdred.
Just once I want one of my tin foil theories to be correct.
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On August 31 2015 16:02 geript wrote:
Deal with it. Ritoky and I are basically confirmed. Which I hate because it means I'm likely to be alive when we win or lose; regardless of win or lose, this game is going to look terrible on my track record.
Eh, I think at least one of you is confirmed.
It is true that you both have green checks from confirmed cops, however there is that slim chance of framer action.
Interestingly though, both of you were checked N2, so at least one of those checks is pure (no chance of meddling).
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So before I respond to anything else, I'll just repeat a point I said before.
If there is any chance of mafia being on the rayn wagon, JJ has the most likely vote to be a bus. That :59 vote with no thread presence... Besides of course a quality gif. Basically it looks like the switch of someone who sees a chance to grab towncred on a wagon they cannot stop.
Like anyone else on that wagon (myself included) would have had to have had the balls to go against everyone else on their team and go "Screw it, we don't need a PGO this game. Rayn sucks anyhow, I'mma get him lynched and roll in the towncred"
Possible, but all of this is degrees of unlikely.
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Obi is still floating in null land for me, nothing to truely push me either way on him. I don't like the fact that he waited so long with his nuke, but w/e trying to read alignment out of that is probably too deep in wifom to mean anything. Something about the way he is interacting and posting today has me leaning a little more town on him.
Besides, I honestly don't see getting much information out of his lynch.
I'm not happy that Fidei choose to watch me, but I think his thinking there shows more paranoid town than mafia since mafia would probably come up with a better lie.
Though idk what would lead anyone to think there is a medic this game.
I honestly like JJ's case a lot. 10/10 Would sheep. + Show Spoiler +
I'm not sure how many mafia are left, I'm really hoping it's one.
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Gerpit, is there any reason besides FF's greencheck on you to confirm you are town?
Also I don't get your mason thing. So you just get to open up a mason QT once per cycle with whomever you choose, whenever you care to open it up?
Interested in what meta you get for me... far as I know nobody has really tried to meta read me yet.
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On September 01 2015 00:08 Damdred wrote:
Tt tell me when you are here I have an important question for you
What up?
This?
On September 01 2015 05:22 Damdred wrote:
Anyway I just want to hear why tt claims he doesn't have an active ability but visited people last night.
And who he visited and why
I didn't who says I did?
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Also @JJ
I'm wondering why you think geript is more likely town than rit.
I mean I get your case on rit, but there seems to be a lot more solid reasons to think Rit is possibly town than geript who basically just has the greencheck.
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Overall I don't think lynching into the Rayn wagon is a good idea, so to me the only real lynch candidates today are:
Obi
Rit
Geript
I'm not sure which of those I most prefer to lynch, there are towny and scummy points about them all.
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I've said all I care to about my role tbh.
There is no reason why I would have been visiting someone, and I don't see my role coming with an unaware wanderer or anything.
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Actually Damdred I'd like to know your opinions of Geript and Rit disregarding the greenchecks.
You earlier mentioned that you were getting scummy vibes from Rit, but the check and him shooting yam both caused you to pause and reconsider. I'm just wondering if you'd be so sure about him being town without those points.
Same thing for geript
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On September 01 2015 08:33 Tictock wrote:
Overall I don't think lynching into the Rayn wagon is a good idea, so to me the only real lynch candidates today are:
Obi
Rit
Geript
I'm not sure which of those I most prefer to lynch, there are towny and scummy points about them all.
I'm prob just being silly here even considering Rit an geript. Obi is the obvious choice out of the 3, but somehow that feels too easy.
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On August 31 2015 22:41 JudgeJudy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 13:42 geript wrote:
Either way, if I lose my power, it's kinda moot. I guess there's a theoretical possibility that someone visited OWS before but idk who that'd be. His role does sound kinda mafia oriented considering the setup but eh. I still want JJ and TT to full claim if they haven't already. I don't really remember what if anything they've claimed.
![[image loading]](http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h177/DeppCollector/2010%20Alice%20in%20Wonderland/hatter%20gif-104_zpsnuccoidb.gif)
I'm a Mad Hatter. Not sure if TT has revealed more than that pic about his role. Really disappointed that I don't have something that I could put to better use, but it is what it is. Claiming whether I still have my bomb or where it currently may be doesn't have much benefit, so I'll leave it at that.
Now on to the ritoky stuff...[/QUOTE]
Why would you claim this?
Like it was pretty unlikely that you were going to be lynched, and now it's pretty unlikely that your going to be NK'd. Seems like claiming nullifies any potential benefit of your role whole also providing a good excuse to survive.
Maybe I'm just not familiar with how MH's work. Is it possible to lose your bomb if your current target dies?
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On September 01 2015 09:03 ritoky wrote:
@TT if geript is mafia, then there are two mafia alive since I roleblocked him last night and kp still occurred (also fid claimed rb so my rb wasn't magically rb'd). In the very unlikely scenario where geript is mafia, who's his most likely partner?
Honestly every time I try and imagine a world with 2 mafia left JJ keeps coming to mind as part of the team.
For some reason I have a hard time seeing you & Obi or Geript and Obi as a team, but it's possible.
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Ok, I'm gunna be busy the rest of tonight, but I'll be around for all of EoD tomorrow.
So after relooking at geript I'm willing to consider him pretty nearly confirmed town. His mason with Wave would make sense for how he survived KSC's Vig shot N1 and I'm not sure his ability makes much sense for a mafia role. Plus the grencheck and his early game anger at all the roleplay seemed legit.
Rit is a tough one. The RB on HtS seems like an off choice, however after some checking his point about mafia sending Tube to do the NK's is legit. His role stuff is the main thing that bugs me. Knowing that he needed to RNG vote to upgrade seems off, and it does look like a good cover. It's also interesting that Rels who had gotten the greencheck on rit was so willing to push Rit's lynch last night.
JJ is an interesting person to consider lynching. Looking back at the way D2 ended it seems even more off to me the way JJ switched onto rayn. The fact that he had no thread presence at all that EoD yet jumped on rayn when he was pretty much for sure getting lynched (nobody could know Rels would swap to Yam) yet had time to find that gif actually looks really bad to me now that I've thought about it more in depth. Other than hand though JJ has been pretty towny.
Maybe I'll get more reading done in the morning, but that's kinda where my head is at after reviewing some stuff.
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On September 01 2015 14:05 ritoky wrote:
here's my last bit of shit until i come back to vote:
JJ - wrong, pushing wrong for bad and falsified reasons, voted at 59 on rayn wagon but found gif in time; is wrong, what is end game when i flip town if mafia? not trying to get read on anyone else, claimed MH aka don't lynch me bro role
OWS - poe from rayn wagon, vanillizing not alignment indicative role would lean toward it being mafia sided but meh, play is more town than others
TT - stone nothing, literal 0 memory of his play since rayn lynch, suddenly now under pressure = more active, claims no active ability role when almost eveyone has had, will not talk about role even though everyone claimed and has not justified it, PoE cuz fid prob town, damd 3p, ger town, me town.
Heh, yea ok your prob mafia.
Scum reading me because I'm suddenly "more active" when being pushed and not wanting to discuss my role. Yet using the point's I've brought up against JJ against him at the same time.
Though I do agree about the 1 shot nullify thing from obi being nai and thus not a great reason to think him more town, but ignores that Obi was telling people to avoid him because something bad would happen.
Oddly enough I think a lot of people agree Obi could be scum here and he might very well be the best lynch. The reason I say I feel like his lynch isn't too informative is because there is less contention there. It's the mechanical easy play, (Everyone not on Rayn wagon - green checks = Obi) and it will still be there tomorrow so I'm inclined to leave him alone another day.
@ JJ
I'll respond to your stuff sometime in the morning
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On September 02 2015 02:37 Damdred wrote:
I really don't care to make a case just some of his posts seem mafia oriented like his post about having a good read on ksc but not pushing against his nuke.
Or how most of today has been about throwing shade on the other people who will be up for lynch soon and defending himself.
Also idk how today anyone can say he's really re evaluating its mostly sheeping and defending and shade... Though that could go either way tbh.
Mistly I'm just pretty sure that obi is town, I'm 3p and geript is town
Assuming this is in reference to me.
Defending, when? I honestly don't give a shit that you and rit are scum reading me, Obi sorta wanting to lynch me makes sense since I've been the main person questioning him, and Geript has been wrong most of this game so not too concerned with his opinion on me.
Sheeping yes, sorta.
Shade, I guess. I like to push people for reactions. It's interesting to me that JJ is sorta defending me when I've been off and on pushing him as mafia, and that pretty much seals him being town for me because if he is mafia he needs to find other people to mislynch after today and I'm clearly a good person to push on.
@ JJ
The best way I can think to reexplain (and it may not even be a very good point) is to look at the analogy of a lynch vs nuke. A nuke is static and doesn't offer much chance for discussion, whereas a lynch is dynamic and generates a lot of content. Look at how Obi has responded to pressure thus far, it doesn't seem like he'd offer much to discuss if we were all pushing on him.
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I'm down to last scum being Rit or Obi.
Nothing else really adds up to me.
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Lol Geript.
In Holy Guardians I got a semi-free pass from people, especially Scott, because they said the didn't believe I could pull off such a good scum game w/o coaching (was only my 3rd game of mafia every).
Now your going with the notion that I must be scum this game because I can't possibly have improved as much as you think I have.
Doubters gunna Doubt
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Kudos though for trying to put together a meta on me, you got the results I was sorta expecting though.
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EPT
