Newbie Student Mafia XIII - Page 123

#2) Rels was roleblocked

It's been hypothesized that I could have roleblocked Rels because I was afraid that he was a Cop that was going to turn in a check on me. I find this absurd, because Rels said that if he was the Cop, he would...turn in a check on me. And he offered no other suggestions to the Cop. Have any of you ever made a post like that as the Cop, and then turned in an action that was exactly what you said you'd do? I never have. And I've never seen anyone else do it, either. And I don't expect I ever will. "Common sense" says I won't.

Further, it doesn't make any sense that I would spend Day 1 and Night 1 building a case on Rels, and then roleblock him, in a setup with a guaranteed Scum roleblocker and no Town roleblocker. It would undo all of the work I'd done up to that point to try and make him look suspicious, flushing all of that work down the toilet. It would also destroy my own credibility as a scum-hunter, because I look like a donkey for having scumread him all that time, once the roleblock makes him confirmed Town. People would be less likely to listen to who I think we should lynch, because I had been so wrong about Rels. This would make it harder to get the mislynches I would need to come back from the bad start. Scum does not give up control over future lynches just for the sake of WIFOM.

Rels had indicated that although roleblocking or killing him WOULD be terrible for a scum n00bKing, maybe I would have felt compelled to do it anyway, just to avoid the threat of him being a Cop that was about to get a redcheck on me. He phrased that like this:

But that's just bad math. Of course there is a choice of not doing that, even IF I think there's a chance that Rels might check me, if he were to be the Cop.

Roleblocking/killing Rels has a 100% chance of being bad for me if I'm Scum, because of how him becoming confirmed Town wrecks my credibility as a scum-hunter. Yes, the red check would suck MORE, but Rels becoming confirmed Town absolutely sucks. 100% chance that it sucks. Whereas, the chances of Rels being Cop were only 10%. And the chances of Rels being Cop and turning in a check on me (when that's exactly what he said he would do if he were the Cop) are even less than 10%.

If I'm Scum and lost Barakos on Day 1, I cannot do something that has a 100% chance of sucking for me. That's not how to make up ground. I have to take that less than 10% chance of Rels being the Cop and redchecking me (IF I'm the roleblocker and not the Godfather. Otherwise, that less than 10% chance is 0%.) So this is not a close call. This is not a tough decision. There is NO...WAY that I would roleblock Rels. Can't afford it.

Why is Rels more likely to be the Cop than other people who suggested a Cop check on me, anyway? As I've outlined, he's actually LESS likely to be Cop than other players. But he certainly isn't MORE likely. So why roleblock HIM, when that's the only roleblock target that destroys everything I've done up to that point?

As mentioned earlier in the thread, there were a total of 4 players who either mentioned the idea of me being a Cop check, or mentioned me as possible scum. They were: rayn, Rels, ruXxar, and Sulfurus.

I made this post:

+ Show Spoiler +

And none of my accusers ever made a PEEP in response to it. NOTHING. Because there's no explaining how I pick Rels as the potential Cop to roleblock, over the others. It doesn't make any sense. The roleblock on Rels is powerful evidence that I am Town.