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On May 12 2015 00:43 Xatalos wrote:
About the RB thing... I think it's not good to not-push Javert just because RB'ing him hasn't apparently caused disruptions in KP delivery. It could well be that scum RB can't be interrupted when they're few enough in numbers, or he has an ability not to be interrupted when delivering KP? I guess it makes it slightly less likely for him to be scum but still the most likely out of anyone.
*Maybe* I could consider Chezinu instead....... It's just I have 0% idea how to read him so it'd be basically an RNG lynch (with some help from process of elimination).
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On May 12 2015 00:48 Xatalos wrote:
Well I'll have to check out the other game too but I'll drop by this thread when I can tonight. Anything specially important for the time being to talk about?
how breshke could be mafia and you've skirted around it to assume that mafia kp can't be rb'd for no reason and auto lynch bats 
yeh... much rather you'd focus on this game please
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I mean the only reason damdred thinks bats is mafia is because he has a theory that kp IS missing which i'm still waiting to hear about. I really hope he didn't think i'd just blindly accept what he was saying as truth.
Breshke..... could very well be mafia tbh since people keep taking increased dmg and bats 3p by virtue of not seeing his power at all other than the announcement thing and being a promoter when we had a town one already increases that. Especially with all these 1 dmg's flying about which doesn't fit with any of the claimed powers so far.
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^ especially with the claimed highest hp in the game with similar powers to people who already flipped with less hp, makes it likely he needs to survive or w/e
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give me a moment to get it all together, i'm pretty sure we should of had 3 KP last night and that I can block the mafia kp I "THINK".
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Actually I don't actually think I can block factionals. Let me show you in depth
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Back. Had to be AFK a bit.
Breshke... I've kind of liked his posting in recent days. I'll check what you wrote on him, might have missed something.
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his posting has all been setup speccy stuff, it's not particularly that great dude, just because someone puts in a modicum of effort does not a town make
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N1: HF takes 6 damage (factional kp assumption)
FF is tracked to Xatalos and Rsoultin (rolecheck possible on Rsoultin)
Rsoultin is hit for 2 dmg and Roleblocked (Matches up to my ability and not Vivax roleblock)
Xatalos is hit for 12 Dmg
Indignant is hit for 12 dmg
Marv is hit for 7 Dmg
Vivax claims 2 dmg and roleblocked (Damdred claims this block)
Night one this is the damage that we have going out.
HF takes 1 kp, Xatalos and JAT both take 2 kps. That's 5 kps total at that point.
The rub here is if Marv took a kp or not, i'm actually going to go with he did not take a factional. We are missing the random 1 damages and the random 2/3 damages from this night. Its just a theory but marv possibly took all of the small abilities that we are missing on this night. or they have a vig type role which is possible.
Right now the scum team is down sandroba and we have an unknown amount of 3p currently. Day 2 brings us to a bit more light, I did not role block scum FF is dead so they have one less kp to give out and we end up with this.
N2: Rsoultin Is Roleblocked and takes 0 dmg (?)
Sepu takes 2 dmg and Roleblock (Damdred claims dmg) Stutters redirects dmg from HF PGO to Sepu for 6-7 (?) HF claims dmg is missing.
HF takes 8 dmg (Stutters claims)
JAT receives 6 Dmg
Breshke receives 2 dmg
Shining receives 6 dmg
Marv receives 12 dmg (?)
(Marv Dies)
We see that Sepus dmg came from myself and stutters (?) (I would like hf to explain again why he thinks sepu is missing dmg here again if he doesn't mind)
HF takes damage from town
Jat Receives a scum/3p kp
Shining receives a scum/3p KP
Marv receives at least 12 dmg or 2 scum kp/3p shots.
and we have other random dmg going out
This leaves us at 4 kp for the night after FF died and I didn't rb scum.
So n1 I rb scum they had 5 kp n2 I rb town they had 4 after ff dies.
Vivax is lynched the next day brining it down to what should of been 3 kp
N3: HF disappears from game
Damdred takes 3 dmg
Rsoultin takes at least 10 dmg (?)
Shining takes at least 3 dmg
Lightninstrike takes 1 dmg
Yamato Roleblocked and takes 2 dmg
And this is where we are at. There should be 3 kp and I rb Yamato. I am under yamato so I should of been able to stop him as I act first on the playerlist.
We know what hp shining had we 100% know he said it in thread. But we are missing a kp Rsoultin probably took 2 kps here as he had a weird amount of hp left and scum I think knew how much hp by rolechecking him.
So the most obvious answer is that yamato actually kills shining with a kp instead of them just putting 3 dmg on him (?) This is speculation but it would follow the pattern of only 3 kp going out.
If we assume I can block factionals then n2 looks kinda weird and they put 3 kp on Marv and we are dealing with ( or 25 hp worth of damage) and we have 2 scum and one third party left.
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I think it's kind of a WIFOM argument that he would have used his power to save townies for credibility. I guess it's possible... Maybe, since it'd be just saving 5 HP or so, not their lives. Still the simpler answer is just that he did it because he's town IMO.
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So your assumption is something like that you can't block factional KP delivery, just other abilities like the random 3 damages etc. going around? I guess that would seem reasonably fair for the scumteam considering the huge amount of blue roles we have.
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Day 6 Vote Count
Inspector Javert (4): Breshke, Holyflare, Xatalos, Damdred
Damdred (1): Inspector Javert
Not voting (1): Chezinu
Given the current vote count, Inspector Javert is most likely to be knocked out.
The voting thread is located here.
Countdown:
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On May 12 2015 01:34 Xatalos wrote:
I think it's kind of a WIFOM argument that he would have used his power to save townies for credibility. I guess it's possible... Maybe, since it'd be just saving 5 HP or so, not their lives. Still the simpler answer is just that he did it because he's town IMO.
that's the least wifom arguement in this game dude, if a team consists sandroba/vivax/yamato/ff/breshke breshke is up shits creek with his entire team being caught in practically 1 cycle. He's either got to do a play and give himself town credit or get eventually poe'd down to dead, it's not likely he's town for it at all, in fact it's really rather null and it was the majority of what I had going for him. I, too, thought his posts were somewhat towny but then I re-read them and it's all very surface level and nothing to do with what people are doing and everything to do with power speculation and that's pretty much it
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On May 11 2015 09:55 Chezinu wrote:
Dear everybodies,
You all know that everyone would be glad if I won the game as 3P versus anyone else here. That is why Chez should live. It is best to lose against Chez than any other 3P. The second best 3P to lose against is HF. That is why he should live, cause fun!
SL died... He never got the bucket of water..
since he was modkilled... no one has the towel now...
... I think Chezinu just needs a policy lynch though. It's too bad we don't have a Vigi.
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On May 12 2015 01:41 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2015 01:34 Xatalos wrote:
I think it's kind of a WIFOM argument that he would have used his power to save townies for credibility. I guess it's possible... Maybe, since it'd be just saving 5 HP or so, not their lives. Still the simpler answer is just that he did it because he's town IMO. that's the least wifom arguement in this game dude, if a team consists sandroba/vivax/yamato/ff/breshke breshke is up shits creek with his entire team being caught in practically 1 cycle. He's either got to do a play and give himself town credit or get eventually poe'd down to dead, it's not likely he's town for it at all, in fact it's really rather null and it was the majority of what I had going for him. I, too, thought his posts were somewhat towny but then I re-read them and it's all very surface level and nothing to do with what people are doing and everything to do with power speculation and that's pretty much it
^ besides, this isn't even all of it, I remember making arguements for him being mafia earlier in the game based on his d1 play and him trying to force people to talk about their negative aspects of the roles (and me being shot because of it too).
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That took a bit to put together, but i'm pretty sure we are just dealing with 1 sk and 1 mafia. Maybe its two third parties but I kinda doubt it, and we might have other 3p doing the smaller dmg around as well.
I'm still leaning batsnacks maybe Xatalos and breshke
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ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Damdred (2): Inspector Javert
ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
die with fucking fire batsnacks
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On May 12 2015 01:47 Holyflare wrote:ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm die with fucking fire batsnacks
although this makes him very likely 3p since a mafia voter already flipped
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On May 10 2015 15:41 Breshke wrote:
Okay so i think this is where im going to be starting.
Inspector Javert - Could be scum/3p
Chezinu - Could be scum/3p
sicklucker - Could be 3p, I don't really think it is possible for him to be scum because looking at his herbs list I don't see how if he was scum he wouldn't jsut give them all to scummates since he already gave one to FF. I say he could be thrid party but it seems kind of out there since he obviously has this present giving like ability so if he is just meant to outlast everyone I don't see how we would ever catch him like ehh very very likely town.
Holyflare - could be 3p. something doesn't really add up for his early play when he first wanted fight prometer and said he would trade one for one with mafia yet when stutters redirected the damage of his pgo thing it only came out to be like damage which HF would know there isn't enough to kill someone since he obviously has more than 8 hp himself since stutters hit him for 8.
Xatalos - could be 3p. Scum go tracked to delivering kp to him which is like 99% sure so very very very unlikely he is scum.
Damdred - TOWN. Has very very likely roleblocked scum KP multiple times dont really see how he could be 3p
How are you even ment to catch 3p roles? I legit don't get it don't they just play the same as town. Like xata if he is third party either took a massive risk with mafia killing him because he has been townie most of the game but maybe he thought his ability would protect him enough idk whereas HF had his PGO dont target me thing which would be a good cover.
So yeah
TOWN
Damdred
SL
Xata (3p?)
HF(3p?)
Scum/3p
Bats
Chez
I don't even really have reasons for bats/chez being scum other than PoE.
Hm... I think this is the post that made me think "probably town" at the time. I basically agreed with everything he said there. It's not just a listpost either, there's some nice analysis and conclusions in there.
Only just Javert being scum only based on PoE... :/ Well to be honest that's a big part of why I think he's scum too. Another is his D1 behaviour and then there was maybe that weird 3 KP thing, not so sure about that argument though.
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Hahaha if that's not a host mistake... Really bad play from him to reveal his hand so early.
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EPT
