EPTAperture Mafia 4: This Time it's Personal
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
This is a terrible opening post! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 29 2015 04:51 Half the Sky wrote: o.OSeeing Trfel's opening post now, Trfel's initial post is towny - he's just trying to have some fun, but the expectation is that he'll come back and give a slew of insights over time. That was not the reaction I expected to that post... On March 29 2015 04:51 Half the Sky wrote: Anyway, rsoultin is of the opinion that you (Half the Sky) always seem scummy when you're town, so I find it surprising that she is suspicious of you for looking scummy after only one post. Rsoultin does seem to be town for other things, though, but I need to check her filter to be sure.rsoultin also has a poor track record of reading me so again, not worried. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
LightningStrike + Show Spoiler + While I dont like his push on rsoultin, I feel that the way he did it makes him more likely to be town. I don't think that mafia!LightningStrike would show bias against a player before they start posting, and then continuously push that read. Also, LightningStrike does pay additional attention to rsoultin over everyone else, he showed this in Student Mafia V. batsnacks + Show Spoiler + I'm very comfortable with batsnacks as town. He's been pushing good things, and being helpful and sensible. sicklucker + Show Spoiler + See below. Slightly Town rsoultin + Show Spoiler + The reasons that LightningStrike used to scumread rsoultin are rather poor. In general, rsoultin has seemed carefree enough to be a town lean. ObiWanShinobi + Show Spoiler + Liked his early push on LightningStrike WaveofShadow + Show Spoiler + Said a lot of the same things that I felt, seems to be scumhunting. I'm liking his play. Slightly Mafia Damdred + Show Spoiler + His play hasn't been very memorable. He made a post townreading Holyflare for noticing and pushing all of the right things, but Holyflare later stated (and I agree) that he hadn't really done anything by that point. ExO_ + Show Spoiler + See below. Mafia Hapahauli + Show Spoiler + See below. Third Party Holyflare + Show Spoiler + See below. On the Adventuring Party + Show Spoiler [Thoughts on the Adventuring Party] + On March 23 2015 05:44 GreYMisT wrote: In addition to the above, the members of the adventuring party will receive some bonus powers. These powers cannot be used on the same night as any powers that player might also have. One thing that people seem to overlook is that the adventuring party is given additional abilities. Therefore, it is not beneficial to only elect someone who does actions that are favorable to town (a generally accepted lynch for the warrior, and letting the lynch go through for the rogue), but also electing people who are town and know how to use these abilities well. However, given the format of one vote per player, and the top three players are elected, I think it is almost impossible for mafia to be completely locked out of the adventuring party. They probably have enough people to take one of the three spots. Looking at the voting analysis could prove quite useful for this. However, scumhunting is definitely the most important thing, and the adventuring party should only be the focused on later in the day (when it does matter to elect the right people). ExO_ ExO_'s decision to run for the adventuring party was very delayed. Initially, he seemed to wonder about the game mechanics, and sit on the sidelines, but then he made a slight push for becoming the warrior. And then, he keeps posting campaign pictures, and then suddenly decides that he's willing to be second to someone else's campaign. The goal of his campaign seems to be constantly changing. It's not clear why he decided to run, and why he is so determined to get a spot on the adventuring party. This doesn't necessarily make ExO_ scum, but I am suspicious of him. I'm interested in seeing how he continues from here. I also don't want to elect ExO_ to the adventuring party because I'm not sure if I trust him with whatever additional abilities the adventuring party is given. I do not want to see ExO_ elected today. sicklucker I'm very confident that sicklucker is town here. His play seems to be an obvious fakeclaim. He does like to fakeclaim as town, so I'm comfortable with townreading sicklucker here. Holyflare I'm guessing that Holyflare is a third party in this game. His play doesn't show indications of extra information, but it appears that he isn't playing with the full force that he does as town. I'm guessing he's a third party with a survival goal. [red]Hapahauli Hapahauli seems to be inactive for quite some time. As many others have pointed out, this suggests that Hapahauli is mafia here. My guess is that he will come back to the thread and make a falsified case against someone to save himself. When he does this, you know that he is mafia, and you can lynch him. I have this feeling that justanothertownie, Holyflare, and rsoultin are going to be elected. And I'm pretty sure that Holyflare isn't town, so we shouldn't let this happen. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 29 2015 07:03 Koshi wrote: It's a small bit of meta on LightningStrike. LightningStrike generally is nice to people and townreads them as town. In addition, no one clearly proved why his claims were false (until rsoultin went through her past games), so he had no reason to drop the read from a town perspective. I find it more telling that he stuck with it because of his reasons, even though everyone else was saying it was a bad read (though not clearly showing why it was a bad read).Trfel, don't you think that it is more likely that scum wont adjust a read? I am talking about your LS townread. On March 29 2015 07:05 Holyflare wrote: And you expect me to be able to read one of the best scum players on the site less than 24 hours into the first day?like what trfel just sheeped all my reads and pretty much reasons and didn't even list me there broooooo? From the games I've played in where you were scum, you tended to spend some time discussing irrelevant things and weren't terribly serious for a while. However, as town, you sometimes start out seriously and lead the thread from the very beginning. This game, I'm seeing more of the former. I don't know if this is alignment indicative or not, and I'm not going to do a full meta analysis (it's too unlikely to give a false conclusion). So I have no read on you at this time. On March 29 2015 07:11 Keirathi wrote: I don't want to lynch ExO_ yet. But I definitely do not want him in the adventuring party.I'm not here trying to advocate that ExO should be in the party or anything if people don't agree with me (even though I'm right), but there's more than enough reason not to lynch him until he posts more. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm not convinced that LightningStrike is scum here. He made a bunch of null reads, but his early push on rsoultin was rather townie. He seems to be trying hard in this game, and I don't want to lynch him. For now, I think that Holyflare is the best vote. He seems very towny, and he has been actively leading the thread. He's also said many of the same thoughts that I have had. His lynch candidates also generally line up with mine. I also trust Holyflare with whatever abilities are given to him by the adventuring party role. ##vote Holyflare I personally like a sicklucker lynch. He's basically claimed third party. As for Hapahauli: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz......................... I don't want to lynch Half the Sky yet, either. I am fairly confident in reading her in a longer game, using the tell that Holyflare developed: "boring Half the Sky is mafia". I am not convinced that Half the Sky has been given enough time to be interesting in this game yet. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 29 2015 16:34 sicklucker wrote: Also claimed? So you're admitting that you claimed third party?I also claimed a power role. Of course you want to lynch me trefel.. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Is there anything I need to know/do before End of Day? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 30 2015 07:36 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Uh, why do people want to lynch me?Well you're our top lynch target, aside from someone that causes a domino effect of death apparently. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If you're wondering about my read progression on Holyflare, a lot of it I'm not allowed to discuss (ongoing games). But while Holyflare started out with some nonsense, he took control of the thread. I always expect Holyflare to be a voice of reason, but in this case he was actively leading and directing, and that makes me lean town on him. While he is capable of that as scum, he often leaves some tells that make me suspicious, but I don't see those this game. If you're wondering about sicklucker, town needs to get rid of third party players. Sure, lynching mafia is better than lynching third party, but I'd rather take an extremely high chance of lyncing third party than a coinflip at lynching mafia. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 30 2015 07:40 Half the Sky wrote: You're right, I don't know what third party win conditions are, but I do know that they have to be eliminated.Can you explain why you are wanting to lynch sicklucker for being/claiming third party when 1 presumably you don't know what the third party wincons are 2 if you are town, you should be lynching mafia, so why aren't/didn't you re-examining your other scumreads (Damdred and ExO) from your last post I haven't yet had a chance to examine my scumreads. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 30 2015 04:07 Hapahauli wrote: Wait, this is why I am being lynched???He wants to lynch sicklucker because he's 3rd party. That's a big nono. Mafia want to lynch 3rd parties. Town generally are looking for mafia first. It doesn't help that the rest of his post is basically summary and non-committal reads on LS, myself, and HtS. This makes no sense. Town needs to eliminate third party. And again, I would take a very good chance at killing third party over a random shot at killing mafia. I didn't make a read on Hapahauli, I didn't make a read on Half the Sky. My "zzzz" about Hapahauli both means that I was bored of his play (he wasn't doing anything), and I was extremely bored of all of the focus and discussion about him. As for Half the Sky, I want her to not be lynched so I have more time to read her. I feel that she is easy to read after some time, but with her being busy for the first portion of the game, that time wasn't provided. I stood up to the wave of people trying to lynch LightningStrike. And you call that non-committal? If LightningStrike is lynched and flips mafia, I look really bad for that. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 30 2015 07:53 Half the Sky wrote: Oh, that's a good point. I missed that.EBWOP - quote fixed I see what you're saying, but we don't fully know that. My understanding of this is that some can and some can't, but if you want to take a chance on SL, then I understand, and obviously you haven't had the time to explore anything else. If that's the case, I'm not so sure that lynching sicklucker is a good idea. The question would be, how much was he trying to hide his third party alignment from town. And although he was frustrated at me calling him third party, he seemed accepting of Holyflare calling him third party. So there's a fair chance that sicklucker is a third party who doesn't harm town that much. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 30 2015 08:43 Holyflare wrote: The dining hall closes in 15 minutes. I'd better run.trfel leave? I'll try to catch up when I can, but I'm currently playing in TL Mafia LXX, and that is a higher priority for me at this time. Sorry. If anyone cares to send me a PM, I'm happy to respond. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Please don't kill me? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 29 2015 06:25 Trfel wrote: Look at how good my predictions are. I really think you should keep me around.Probably Town LightningStrike + Show Spoiler + While I dont like his push on rsoultin, I feel that the way he did it makes him more likely to be town. I don't think that mafia!LightningStrike would show bias against a player before they start posting, and then continuously push that read. Also, LightningStrike does pay additional attention to rsoultin over everyone else, he showed this in Student Mafia V. batsnacks + Show Spoiler + I'm very comfortable with batsnacks as town. He's been pushing good things, and being helpful and sensible. sicklucker + Show Spoiler + See below. Slightly Town rsoultin + Show Spoiler + The reasons that LightningStrike used to scumread rsoultin are rather poor. In general, rsoultin has seemed carefree enough to be a town lean. ObiWanShinobi + Show Spoiler + Liked his early push on LightningStrike WaveofShadow + Show Spoiler + Said a lot of the same things that I felt, seems to be scumhunting. I'm liking his play. Slightly Mafia Damdred + Show Spoiler + His play hasn't been very memorable. He made a post townreading Holyflare for noticing and pushing all of the right things, but Holyflare later stated (and I agree) that he hadn't really done anything by that point. ExO_ + Show Spoiler + See below. Mafia Hapahauli + Show Spoiler + See below. Third Party Holyflare + Show Spoiler + See below. On the Adventuring Party + Show Spoiler [Thoughts on the Adventuring Party] + On March 23 2015 05:44 GreYMisT wrote: In addition to the above, the members of the adventuring party will receive some bonus powers. These powers cannot be used on the same night as any powers that player might also have. One thing that people seem to overlook is that the adventuring party is given additional abilities. Therefore, it is not beneficial to only elect someone who does actions that are favorable to town (a generally accepted lynch for the warrior, and letting the lynch go through for the rogue), but also electing people who are town and know how to use these abilities well. However, given the format of one vote per player, and the top three players are elected, I think it is almost impossible for mafia to be completely locked out of the adventuring party. They probably have enough people to take one of the three spots. Looking at the voting analysis could prove quite useful for this. However, scumhunting is definitely the most important thing, and the adventuring party should only be the focused on later in the day (when it does matter to elect the right people). ExO_ ExO_'s decision to run for the adventuring party was very delayed. Initially, he seemed to wonder about the game mechanics, and sit on the sidelines, but then he made a slight push for becoming the warrior. And then, he keeps posting campaign pictures, and then suddenly decides that he's willing to be second to someone else's campaign. The goal of his campaign seems to be constantly changing. It's not clear why he decided to run, and why he is so determined to get a spot on the adventuring party. This doesn't necessarily make ExO_ scum, but I am suspicious of him. I'm interested in seeing how he continues from here. I also don't want to elect ExO_ to the adventuring party because I'm not sure if I trust him with whatever additional abilities the adventuring party is given. I do not want to see ExO_ elected today. sicklucker I'm very confident that sicklucker is town here. His play seems to be an obvious fakeclaim. He does like to fakeclaim as town, so I'm comfortable with townreading sicklucker here. Holyflare I'm guessing that Holyflare is a third party in this game. His play doesn't show indications of extra information, but it appears that he isn't playing with the full force that he does as town. I'm guessing he's a third party with a survival goal. [red]Hapahauli Hapahauli seems to be inactive for quite some time. As many others have pointed out, this suggests that Hapahauli is mafia here. My guess is that he will come back to the thread and make a falsified case against someone to save himself. When he does this, you know that he is mafia, and you can lynch him. I have this feeling that justanothertownie, Holyflare, and rsoultin are going to be elected. And I'm pretty sure that Holyflare isn't town, so we shouldn't let this happen. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 31 2015 03:32 Holyflare wrote: I think that's fairly likely.um yeh hapa is mafia /discuss Regardless of my alignment, Hapahauli's case on me was low-effort and exaggerated. His goal was to survive, and not to actually lynch mafia. This makes me think that Hapahauli is quite likely to be mafia here. | ||
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