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Oats, my problem here is that neither of the other three have played in a manner today which I can easily ascribe to townie motivation.
Coag dropped one or two comments in the thread then left. Then again, one of these was pretty interesting... I'll get to it in a second.
LoneMeow wandered into the thread, put a vote on Hopeless as "pressure" then wandered out. I feel like the time for solely "pressure" votes is well and truly over and this might have been Lone trying to not take some responsibility for this vote. Then again, he has at least justified his vote of Hopeless.
Hopeless tried to convince me to vote for LoneMeow with some BS argument, which notably included no analysis of his own alignment nor LoneMeow's. I feel like a town Hopeless should be at least kind of comfortable explaining what in his main scumread's play makes them scum, but the only reason I can find in Hopeless' filter for LM being scum is process of elimination.
I'd actually forgotten about this little exchange he had with Coag:
On February 17 2014 03:55 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 03:48 Hopeless1der wrote:
If I agree to lynch aqua (and he isn't scum) do you agree to lynch LM the next day, coag? This is the scummiest fucking post all game. Like how the fuck do I know whats going to happen between now and 2 lynches later. reads like the last scum setting up mislynches. Do you see how scummy that shit sounds?
So Hopeless tried to make some deal with Coag to lynch me, then LoneMeow.
AND he tried to make some deal with me to lynch LoneMeow.
I can kind of see how he might do this as a townie, if he was absolutely and positively convinced that Lone was scum and was willing to make any deal to see him lynched. Problem is, he doesn't have a case on Lone, just some PoE... I don't see how he can be sure enough about LM-scum to make this make sense from a townie point of view.
Oats, if you can see how this makes any kind of sense from a townie Hopeless let me know. In the meantime:
##Vote: Hopeless1der
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The thing about either of the situations Hopeless is trying to push is that I feel like they both involve him surviving through LYLO as a focus.
If he lynches me then Lone with Coag, he survives.
If he convinces me to vote Lone, he has a pretty good chance of surviving the Hopeless-Coag-Aqua LYLO.
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Hmm... I guess that isn't really the point, any townie would also not want to be lynched themselves.
But I feel like there's a fundamental disconnect between being willing to work with me to lynch LoneMeow and being willing to work with Coag to lynch me.
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On February 17 2014 22:21 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2014 17:22 LoneMeow wrote:Actually, now that I went back and checked the timing of things Aquanim looks very town for the D1 push on JonnyLaw, far more than I originally thought. When he made this big push to get JonnyLaw lynched the votes, if I'm not mistaken, were like this: Jaybrundage ( 3 ) : Balla24, Koshi, suki, Hopeless1der, Oatsmaster, Alakaslam JonnyLaw ( 3 ) : suki, Koshi, Aquanim, Balla24 Alakaslam ( 0 ) : jaybrundage Sidesprang ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster suki ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster, Balla24, Jaybrundage Koshi ( 1 ) : Jaybrundage, JonnyLaw Balla24 ( 0 ) : Jaybrundage, suki Aquanim ( 0 ) : Balla24There's always a slight chance it was a bus given how JonnyLaw was playing and how much suspicion he was getting, but I'd say that he looks town enough for now. So I checked, the following people were voicing suspicion on JonnyLaw before Aquanim posted his case: suki jaybrundage Balla24 Koshi myself So considering the timing, it could very well have been a bus but that's pretty inconclusive. Aquanim, were you voting Coagulation on D2 because you thought he was scum or because he was a liability?
Both. I thought he was reasonably likely to be scum, and if he was town would likely either be mislynched later or contribute to a mislynch at LYLO - hence, a liability. I'm sure my reasons are in my filter, if you look.
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Coag why do you think hopeless is town now? last I heard you were scum on him
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fuck you're gone and won't be back. Is ANYONE here.
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...okay.
Well, if I want to lynch you I can't even unvote otherwise precedence passes to LM. If I unvote, Lone gets lynched unless we both vote Coag.
Wonderful.
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If LoneMeow is scum I simply can't fathom this post:
On February 17 2014 22:21 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2014 17:22 LoneMeow wrote:Actually, now that I went back and checked the timing of things Aquanim looks very town for the D1 push on JonnyLaw, far more than I originally thought. When he made this big push to get JonnyLaw lynched the votes, if I'm not mistaken, were like this: Jaybrundage ( 3 ) : Balla24, Koshi, suki, Hopeless1der, Oatsmaster, Alakaslam JonnyLaw ( 3 ) : suki, Koshi, Aquanim, Balla24 Alakaslam ( 0 ) : jaybrundage Sidesprang ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster suki ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster, Balla24, Jaybrundage Koshi ( 1 ) : Jaybrundage, JonnyLaw Balla24 ( 0 ) : Jaybrundage, suki Aquanim ( 0 ) : Balla24There's always a slight chance it was a bus given how JonnyLaw was playing and how much suspicion he was getting, but I'd say that he looks town enough for now. So I checked, the following people were voicing suspicion on JonnyLaw before Aquanim posted his case: suki jaybrundage Balla24 Koshi myself So considering the timing, it could very well have been a bus but that's pretty inconclusive. Aquanim, were you voting Coagulation on D2 because you thought he was scum or because he was a liability?
Why would a scum come into the thread and start pressuring the only other person voting with them?
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On February 17 2014 22:57 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 22:42 Aquanim wrote:On February 17 2014 22:21 LoneMeow wrote:On February 14 2014 17:22 LoneMeow wrote:Actually, now that I went back and checked the timing of things Aquanim looks very town for the D1 push on JonnyLaw, far more than I originally thought. When he made this big push to get JonnyLaw lynched the votes, if I'm not mistaken, were like this: Jaybrundage ( 3 ) : Balla24, Koshi, suki, Hopeless1der, Oatsmaster, Alakaslam JonnyLaw ( 3 ) : suki, Koshi, Aquanim, Balla24 Alakaslam ( 0 ) : jaybrundage Sidesprang ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster suki ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster, Balla24, Jaybrundage Koshi ( 1 ) : Jaybrundage, JonnyLaw Balla24 ( 0 ) : Jaybrundage, suki Aquanim ( 0 ) : Balla24There's always a slight chance it was a bus given how JonnyLaw was playing and how much suspicion he was getting, but I'd say that he looks town enough for now. So I checked, the following people were voicing suspicion on JonnyLaw before Aquanim posted his case: suki jaybrundage Balla24 Koshi myself So considering the timing, it could very well have been a bus but that's pretty inconclusive. Aquanim, were you voting Coagulation on D2 because you thought he was scum or because he was a liability? Both. I thought he was reasonably likely to be scum, and if he was town would likely either be mislynched later or contribute to a mislynch at LYLO - hence, a liability. I'm sure my reasons are in my filter, if you look. This is the conclusion you came to after reading up on both players: Show nested quote +On February 12 2014 06:28 Aquanim wrote:On February 12 2014 04:16 Coagulation wrote:
Aquanim is defending sidesprang hard and making up illogical shit in the process. sidesprang Aquanim scum team
calling it now. You're hilarious Coag. Also, you disgust me... but the fact you're posting anything game-relevant at all is apparently a town-tell. (Much happier with the scum-meta from the PYP LoL game than the others I found.) Imma go take a quick look at Sidesprang again. Show nested quote +On February 12 2014 06:45 Aquanim wrote:
Ha! Do your worst Coag.
Reading his filter again, it's still marginal but I think there was a significant amount more thought going into his posts in the newbie, rather than just summarising the thread (which more accurately describes here).
Can't say I'm hugely confident in this one but
##Unvote
##Vote: Sidesprang Give me some kind of idea how strongly you thought each of them was scummy/towny at this point. Also, why did you feel a need to change your vote if you were unconfident about the lynch, given that it did not affect the outcome?
Pretty sure that's in my filter too. I thought Sidesprang was significantly more likely to flip scum at that point but it still wouldn't have utterly shocked me for Coag to do so.
As for why I changed my vote... pretty sure I've covered this too. Suffice it to say that I prefer my vote to be on the person I want to lynch at the end of the day, regardless of whether it's necessary. Keeps things simple.
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Coag's reason for being townier on hopeless is:
Honestly he has said some of the scummiest shit in this game but hes really putting a ton of visible effort and discomfort in figuring out who the last scum is.
to which I wonder if he's even reading the game. as far as I can tell since the Suki lynch Hopeless' total visible effort into figuring out the last scum is "well I guess it has to be lone by PoE, peace out".
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On February 17 2014 23:09 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +I can kind of see how he might do this as a townie, if he was absolutely and positively convinced that Lone was scum and was willing to make any deal to see him lynched. Problem is, he doesn't have a case on Lone, just some PoE... I don't see how he can be sure enough about LM-scum to make this make sense from a townie point of view.
Oats, if you can see how this makes any kind of sense from a townie Hopeless let me know. In the meantime:
Uh you just said it. He is convinced.
My point was "if Hopeless is convinced, why can't he tell me why LoneMeow is scum based on his play?"
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On February 18 2014 06:13 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 06:05 Aquanim wrote:On February 17 2014 23:09 Oatsmaster wrote:I can kind of see how he might do this as a townie, if he was absolutely and positively convinced that Lone was scum and was willing to make any deal to see him lynched. Problem is, he doesn't have a case on Lone, just some PoE... I don't see how he can be sure enough about LM-scum to make this make sense from a townie point of view.
Oats, if you can see how this makes any kind of sense from a townie Hopeless let me know. In the meantime:
Uh you just said it. He is convinced. My point was "if Hopeless is convinced, why can't he tell me why LoneMeow is scum based on his play?" which is a fair point, but the fact that I'm certain implies I cant be assed to actually assess the rest of the players since the game is effectively solved. (to me)
Problem with that strategy is I can't distinguish between "can't be assed to assess the thread" and "scum" at this point.
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On February 18 2014 06:14 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 06:00 Aquanim wrote:On February 17 2014 22:57 LoneMeow wrote:On February 17 2014 22:42 Aquanim wrote:On February 17 2014 22:21 LoneMeow wrote:On February 14 2014 17:22 LoneMeow wrote:Actually, now that I went back and checked the timing of things Aquanim looks very town for the D1 push on JonnyLaw, far more than I originally thought. When he made this big push to get JonnyLaw lynched the votes, if I'm not mistaken, were like this: Jaybrundage ( 3 ) : Balla24, Koshi, suki, Hopeless1der, Oatsmaster, Alakaslam JonnyLaw ( 3 ) : suki, Koshi, Aquanim, Balla24 Alakaslam ( 0 ) : jaybrundage Sidesprang ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster suki ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster, Balla24, Jaybrundage Koshi ( 1 ) : Jaybrundage, JonnyLaw Balla24 ( 0 ) : Jaybrundage, suki Aquanim ( 0 ) : Balla24There's always a slight chance it was a bus given how JonnyLaw was playing and how much suspicion he was getting, but I'd say that he looks town enough for now. So I checked, the following people were voicing suspicion on JonnyLaw before Aquanim posted his case: suki jaybrundage Balla24 Koshi myself So considering the timing, it could very well have been a bus but that's pretty inconclusive. Aquanim, were you voting Coagulation on D2 because you thought he was scum or because he was a liability? Both. I thought he was reasonably likely to be scum, and if he was town would likely either be mislynched later or contribute to a mislynch at LYLO - hence, a liability. I'm sure my reasons are in my filter, if you look. This is the conclusion you came to after reading up on both players: On February 12 2014 06:28 Aquanim wrote:On February 12 2014 04:16 Coagulation wrote:
Aquanim is defending sidesprang hard and making up illogical shit in the process. sidesprang Aquanim scum team
calling it now. You're hilarious Coag. Also, you disgust me... but the fact you're posting anything game-relevant at all is apparently a town-tell. (Much happier with the scum-meta from the PYP LoL game than the others I found.) Imma go take a quick look at Sidesprang again. On February 12 2014 06:45 Aquanim wrote:
Ha! Do your worst Coag.
Reading his filter again, it's still marginal but I think there was a significant amount more thought going into his posts in the newbie, rather than just summarising the thread (which more accurately describes here).
Can't say I'm hugely confident in this one but
##Unvote
##Vote: Sidesprang Give me some kind of idea how strongly you thought each of them was scummy/towny at this point. Also, why did you feel a need to change your vote if you were unconfident about the lynch, given that it did not affect the outcome? Pretty sure that's in my filter too. I thought Sidesprang was significantly more likely to flip scum at that point but it still wouldn't have utterly shocked me for Coag to do so. As for why I changed my vote... pretty sure I've covered this too. Suffice it to say that I prefer my vote to be on the person I want to lynch at the end of the day, regardless of whether it's necessary. Keeps things simple. Right, the story checks out, nothing here that would make you look scummy. Do you think there's a chance both wagons may have been on scum?
...Also in my filter. I think Oats asked me at some point.
I think it's conceivable - in that case there wouldn't have been any scum with thread presence trying to drive a lynch on a townie, so there's no exceptionally good reason why a two-scum-wagon day should be impossible.
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What is the purpose behind these questions LoneMeow?
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On February 18 2014 06:19 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 06:17 Aquanim wrote:On February 18 2014 06:14 LoneMeow wrote:On February 18 2014 06:00 Aquanim wrote:On February 17 2014 22:57 LoneMeow wrote:On February 17 2014 22:42 Aquanim wrote:On February 17 2014 22:21 LoneMeow wrote:On February 14 2014 17:22 LoneMeow wrote:Actually, now that I went back and checked the timing of things Aquanim looks very town for the D1 push on JonnyLaw, far more than I originally thought. When he made this big push to get JonnyLaw lynched the votes, if I'm not mistaken, were like this: Jaybrundage ( 3 ) : Balla24, Koshi, suki, Hopeless1der, Oatsmaster, Alakaslam JonnyLaw ( 3 ) : suki, Koshi, Aquanim, Balla24 Alakaslam ( 0 ) : jaybrundage Sidesprang ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster suki ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster, Balla24, Jaybrundage Koshi ( 1 ) : Jaybrundage, JonnyLaw Balla24 ( 0 ) : Jaybrundage, suki Aquanim ( 0 ) : Balla24There's always a slight chance it was a bus given how JonnyLaw was playing and how much suspicion he was getting, but I'd say that he looks town enough for now. So I checked, the following people were voicing suspicion on JonnyLaw before Aquanim posted his case: suki jaybrundage Balla24 Koshi myself So considering the timing, it could very well have been a bus but that's pretty inconclusive. Aquanim, were you voting Coagulation on D2 because you thought he was scum or because he was a liability? Both. I thought he was reasonably likely to be scum, and if he was town would likely either be mislynched later or contribute to a mislynch at LYLO - hence, a liability. I'm sure my reasons are in my filter, if you look. This is the conclusion you came to after reading up on both players: On February 12 2014 06:28 Aquanim wrote:On February 12 2014 04:16 Coagulation wrote:
Aquanim is defending sidesprang hard and making up illogical shit in the process. sidesprang Aquanim scum team
calling it now. You're hilarious Coag. Also, you disgust me... but the fact you're posting anything game-relevant at all is apparently a town-tell. (Much happier with the scum-meta from the PYP LoL game than the others I found.) Imma go take a quick look at Sidesprang again. On February 12 2014 06:45 Aquanim wrote:
Ha! Do your worst Coag.
Reading his filter again, it's still marginal but I think there was a significant amount more thought going into his posts in the newbie, rather than just summarising the thread (which more accurately describes here).
Can't say I'm hugely confident in this one but
##Unvote
##Vote: Sidesprang Give me some kind of idea how strongly you thought each of them was scummy/towny at this point. Also, why did you feel a need to change your vote if you were unconfident about the lynch, given that it did not affect the outcome? Pretty sure that's in my filter too. I thought Sidesprang was significantly more likely to flip scum at that point but it still wouldn't have utterly shocked me for Coag to do so. As for why I changed my vote... pretty sure I've covered this too. Suffice it to say that I prefer my vote to be on the person I want to lynch at the end of the day, regardless of whether it's necessary. Keeps things simple. Right, the story checks out, nothing here that would make you look scummy. Do you think there's a chance both wagons may have been on scum? ...Also in my filter. I think Oats asked me at some point. I think it's conceivable - in that case there wouldn't have been any scum with thread presence trying to drive a lynch on a townie, so there's no exceptionally good reason why a two-scum-wagon day should be impossible. Sorry, the question was a bit badly formed: What I meant to ask was whether there's anything about the play of Coagulation/sidesprang that would make it more/less likely?
I don't remember any association between their two slots and I'm too busy to go back and check right now.
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On February 18 2014 06:26 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'm not the type of player to cram my reads down your throat. I try to gently show you evidence and let you draw conclusions. Giving you the votecounts is a base point to then consider what the wagons show, and then weighing that against my scumreads.
On February 10 2014 01:16 Hopeless1der wrote:WARNING ** WARNING WALL OF CONFIRMATION BIAS INCOMING Subject: suki is scum
... ... ...
Well, that obviously isn't *always* true...
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...I just can't see any reason to lynch Lone over Hopeless here :/
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On February 18 2014 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 06:26 Hopeless1der wrote:WALL OF CONFIRMATION BIAS INCOMING thats me explicitly warning you my reads are biased
yeah, and IIRC you do that a lot as scum.
and that's not my point, the point was that you were in fact willing to "cram my reads down your throat".
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gah... Hopeless you have put forward a fair few reasons/excuses why you haven't really contributed any analysis to the thread for the last day or whatever. Some of them are plausible. But I just have no way to distinguish it from you being scum, and I have more reason to think everyone else is town than you.
If you're town... I apologise. But I can't bring myself to lynch anyone else today.
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EPT
