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Newbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 5

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 25 2014 02:59 GMT
#407
Alright, to present my thoughts for tonight.

If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also).

If I survive the night, I'll post analysis about what the opposing kill meant. Don't have the time to write four scenarios. I'm primarily writing about what happens when I die, which can't happen Day 4.


First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills.


Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority.

Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing.

Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post.

However, instead of looking for a hesitant player (Beneather and Amiko, the former was just ugh, should've voted on someone else).


It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill.

Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.

If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it.

Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0.


If I die, it could draw blame onto Amiko, but also be twisted by mafia to make it appear that Amiko is guilty. Thus, my death is unuseable for read purposes.


So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum.

I can do a scenario where I'm scum too, but I don't have the time atm.



And finally:
I fingered him in response

No context quote of the day from this thread.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 25 2014 03:12 GMT
#408
where da night kill post, I need to know mafia can't change it to circumvent my (feeble attempt at) a tarp.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 25 2014 03:14 GMT
#410
Goodbye everybody, I got to gooooo, gotta leave you all behind to face the truth!~
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
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