Since this is Phase 3 now, the vote has to either pass on my turn or on rayn's turn due to me being confirmed town and rayn being pretty much confirmed town. The other confirmed town is Koshi. Let's plan it out:

If we pass this on my turn, we then pass the 4th mission on rayn's turn. Out of the 5 following players, Koshi is the confirmed town, so we have one chance to pass the 5th mission on his turn.

If we reject this on my turn, we then pass this mission on rayn's turn. Koshi will take the 4th mission, and then I have to take the last mission.

I think either way is fine.

Anyways, onto the team.

Right now, Koshi and I are confirmed town due to last mission's behavior as explained in my previous post. The only way that either of us is a spy is if two or more town decided to throw the game. If we're willing to go that far for reads, then there's a lot of other highly unlikely reads we can also make, and at that point we can't draw any conclusion at all. I have to put Koshi in the mission, and if Koshi turns out to be spy, the fault lies in those who threw the game for town. Koshi and I are in.

Next I would like to put Rayn in. For the entirety of the game, Rayn has not made a single action that is consistent with a spy agenda. Since the spies are 2 missions up, even if Rayn was a spy, there can't be any more information gained from missions and voting that can point him to being a spy. The only thing that can happen is that Rayn yay votes a guaranteed scumteam prior to there being 4 yay votes already on the field. I don't even mind saying it because there's no way he could make that mistake as spy. So due to Rayn not able to be proven as spy at this point, we have to put him in the mission assuming he is town.

Now we have to choose the last person on the mission. I can divide the remaining players into two groups - those that went on the last mission, and those who did not and yayed it.

Went on mission:
Grack, Corazon, VE

Yayed the mission:
Coag, Hopeless, Sentinel

I believe that there is one spy in the first group and two in the second. This is due to there being three yay votes outside the mission. A town could potentially give the first yay vote, but it's very bad to give the second yay vote, and completely throwing the game to give the third yay vote. On second thought, I'm just going to base the rest of the game assuming that there being 2 spies in the second group is confirmed. If I am wrong, it's their fault for confirming themselves as spy.

Firstly let's look at the second group. Hopeless has been confirmed as spy on multiple occasions. Sentinel has been confirmed as spy on the occasion where he gave the final yay vote on the failing mission when there were two yay votes from outside the mission. He claimed it was a mistake, so overall, I'm thinking the following spy probabilities:

Coagulation - low
Hopeless - guaranteed
Sentinel - high

The question now is do we pick someone from the first group to send and go with a 66.6% chance of hitting a town, or do we go with Coag?

We have to pick two people on mission 5 anyways, so the permutations include:

-Coag mission 3, someone from group 1 mission 5
-Someone from group 1 mission 3, Coag mission 5
-Someone from group 1 mission 3, another from group 1 mission 5

Either way, we have to include someone from group 1, so let's look at who the best choice is. What we know so far is Hopeless is on the spy team with one of them, and most likely Sentinel, possible Coag. So let's look at the history between every permutation.

Grack - Hopeless
Grack downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it. After Grack downvoted it, the votes were 5-4 in favor of passing, but then Adam changed his vote. Would make sense if Grack was town or if the spy team was Grack/Hopeless/Coag.
Hopeless yayed the second mission where Grack was in, making it 4-1. The mission included Grackaroni, Corazon, VisceraEyes, raynpelikoneet. If Grack wasn't the spy in the mission, one of the others has to be it.

Grack - Sentinel
Grack nay voted the second mission where the team was VE, Sentinel, Corazon, making the vote 4-4. Grack less likely to be spy with Sentinel.

Grack - Coag
Grack downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it. After Grack downvoted it, the votes were 5-4 in favor of passing, but then Adam changed his vote. Makes sense if Grack is town or if the spy team was Grack/Coag/Hopeless

Corazon - Hopeless
Corazon downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it, making the vote 5-3. Makes sense if Corazon is town if it Hopeless/Corazon/Coag is the spy team.
Corazon downvoted the second mission where it was Koshi/Hopeless/Rayn. Corazon was bussing Hopeless at this point so he has to anyways.

Corazon - Sentinel
In VE's team that was proposed with VE/Corazon/Sentinel, both of them yayed it.

Corazon - Coag
Corazon downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it, making the vote 5-3. Makes sense if Corazon is town, or if Coag/Corazon/Hopeless is the spy team.

VE - Hopeless
VE downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it, making the vote 3-2. Makes sense if VE is town, or if VE/Hopeless/Coag is the spy team.
Hopeless downvoted the team that VE proposed on mission two.

VE - Sentinel
VE put sentinel in the second mission when VE was leader. Both VE and Sentinel approved it. Less likely for these two to be spy together, but not by much.

VE- Coag
VE downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it, making the vote 3-2. Makes sense if VE is town, or if VE/Hopeless/Coag is the spy team.
Adam downvoted the second mission when VE proposed VE/Sentinel/Cora, making the vote 3-3. Adam less likely to be spy with Coag.

In all cases, there is possibility for spies being meta or bussing each other, which will be considered.

Will continue this tomorrow with permutation of 3 spies instead of just 2, and also look more into dialogue between people.

Team so far
Chairman Ray, Raynpelikoneet, Koshi

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 09 2014 08:13 GMT

#972

On January 09 2014 17:02 Koshi wrote:
CR so good. So good.

Show nested quote +

I don't understand this part.

The first part of that isn't a strong indication of much. If there were 5 yay votes already, if Corazon was expecting the vote to pass, he could put anything down.

The second part, I was referring to the mission:

Team: Koshi, Hopeless1der, raynpelikoneet

Team 3
Current Leader: Koshi

Current Vote Count:
Corazon: Nay
Hopeless1der: Yay
Coagulation: Yay
Chairman Ray: Yay
Koshi: Yay
[UoN]Sentinel: Yay
VisceraEyes: Yay
Raynpelikoneet: Yay

When looking at this vote and looking at how Corazon has been speaking to Hopeless for that portion of the game, it would seem that they are not spies together, but I've gone through Corazon's previous games as scum, and he is definitely capable of bussing teammates hard. So even though Corazon instantly nay voted a team that Hopeless was on, it doesn't make it less likely that they are spy together.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 09 2014 08:15 GMT

#974

Was there anything other than the vote on this mission that confirmed Sentinel as scum?

Proposed Team: Grackaroni, Corazon, VisceraEyes, raynpelikoneet

Team 1
Current Leader: Grackaroni

Final Vote Count:
VisceraEyes: Yay
Corazon: Yay
Koshi: Nay
Coagulation: Yay
Hopeless1der: Yay
[UoN] Sentinel: Yay
raynpelikoneet: Nay
Grackaroni: Nay
Chairman Ray: Nay

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 09 2014 08:28 GMT

#977

Just asking because I'm debating the possibility that Sentinel actually did screw up. So far not looking like it. My best read is from his reaction:

On January 06 2014 03:56 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Oh... was I #5?

I'm unsure of what's going on with Grack. I thought he was town for a while... maybe not... Adam/Coag-Hopeless-Grack might be the scumteam after all based on the voting.

On January 06 2014 08:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I really fucked this one up.

2 scummers from Coag/Hopeless/CR
1 scummer from the team (Grack?)

I'm thinking rayn/koshi/cora/VE

After that he never touched on the subject again, so not a lot of effort was spent defending himself even though we keep bringing up that he's confirmed spy. If I was in his position as town, I would definitely be spending a lot of effort trying to reprove that I am town. I guess that's good enough for me.

With Hopeless+Sentinel as confirmed spy, Coag should be going on the next mission then. Then it's between Grack, VE, and Cora for the last slot. 66.6% victory if we RNG it.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 09 2014 08:40 GMT

#981

VE doesn't seem like a bad choice atm. I guess Coag on mission 3 and then VE on mission 5 for now. Not gonna propose quite yet, still got 19 hours to think things over.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 10 2014 00:58 GMT

#997

On January 10 2014 06:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
Ray we need a team bruh.

Do you suggest we take someone from Grack/VE/Cora, or take Coag?

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 10 2014 01:54 GMT

#999

On January 10 2014 10:51 Coagulation wrote:
did u just ask ve if he wants to take ve?

Yes, do you think we should take Coag instead?

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 10 2014 04:51 GMT

#1007

o crap, sry

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 10 2014 20:20 GMT

#1077

Hopeless, there's a chance that Koshi or Rayn may be spy. I read through both their filters three times, looked through their vote patterns, and spent a lot of effort trying to prove it either way, but there's nothing I could find. In order to give cause to someone being a spy, we have to look at their vote patterns and how they are pushing teams. We look at when they are pushing themselves to be on a team, what teams they are against and what teams they are for, who else they are trying to get on a team, and who they are trying to remove from teams. If either Koshi or Rayn is a spy, then that means town has been very trigger happy with voting, and they have constantly fought against each other to make arbitrary, non-alignment-indicative changes to teams. Koshi or Rayn slipped by the entire game without ever needing to vote on a team when the votes still mattered, or fight to get the team changed. Town this game cockblocked every opportunity that we have for getting reads from either of them and conveniently put spies on every mission.

If you can find some evidence indicating that either Koshi or Rayn is the spy, then I'm willing to consider it, but at this point I did whatever I could do, and if Koshi or Rayn does turn out to be the spy, I'm okay with the game ending.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 11 2014 00:59 GMT

#1094

Hopeless and Sentinel were both town.

Cool

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 11 2014 01:16 GMT

#1098

TY for hosting!

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

January 11 2014 02:14 GMT

#1125

On January 11 2014 10:54 Koshi wrote:
Also big shout out to CR. I love his play. I just do. Lovely style. Low amounts of post but really a lot of effort in them. I would never be able to do that. Pretty unique player.

Thanks! I'll try to keep it up. However I still have many areas to improve upon though, for example, I wasn't open minded enough to consider the scenario where both Hopeless and Sentinel were town. There were definitely moments in their filter where they did seem town and I chose to ignore it.