EPTOn October 08 2013 12:38 Chairman Ray wrote:
Right now, my belief is that VA is the last banger, and the other scumteam is solstice/austinmcc/CC. I will be adding onto me previous read which is here:
Just a recap from my last read, I think that the whole solstice fake-cop claim was planned out, and it is a fair assumption that both other scum teammates are a part of the plan. There are two outcomes to the plan - solstice gets lynched, or someone random gets lynched. There's also the outcome that Koshi gets lynched, but at that point mafia has such a huge advantage, so no point analyzing that scenario.
I think the motivation behind the whole fake cop-claim was that the scumteam believed there was a good chance that solstice would be lynched by the end of the day. This plan would enable a better chance of solstice's survival, or it would make austinmcc and CC look more town. They had to pull it off at the beginning of the day because if solstice gets voted heavily on and then they try to pull it off, then it may look suspicious.
Firstly, the scenario where solstice does not get lynched, and the lynch gets pushed onto someone else. We have to go back and look at who has been pushing to lynch outside solstice/koshi, and who has been agreeing with it. Outside people who have already been confirmed as town, only austinmcc fits that bill. He was pushing pretty hard that the best case is for neither koshi nor solstice to be lynched. He posted a lot of math explaining why that's the best option, which ended up in this conclusion:
If austinmcc were scum with solstice, I would totally expect that the math would be correct, otherwise why would they go for it in the first place? That makes sense if they were both scum. But what if austinmcc was town? Would he support lynching outside of solstice? Personally, after I read the entire argument of why solstice is cop, it was still fairly obvious to me that solstice is the mafia, and I think it was fairly obvious to everyone else as well. But what happens if we leave them both alive? That would mean Koshi would probably die. Koshi's choices are to block KP, shoot solstice, bus solstice, or bus a random. Scum can shoot Koshi, shoot someone else, or shoot solstice in anticipation of a bus. For Koshi, blocking KP would only stall one turn in favor of scum, so that shouldn't be an option. Shooting solstice would leave him vulnerable to the bangers. Bussing with solstice leaves him vulnerable to the scum shooting solstice. Bussing with a random person would be countered by the scum shooting someone at random. Koshi will probably have to bus himself no matter what. No matter what option Koshi does, it will either be a coinflip or it will be bad for town. In all scenarios, either Koshi dies, or a few town die.
Just to sum that up, here's what I think the scum plan was:
1. Push for lynching someone other than Koshi and solstice
2. Since austinmcc is directing the vote, it will probably end up being a town, so 1 town lynched
3. During nighttime, either shoot solstice to gamble on a bus, or take the safe option and shoot VE, rayn, or oats. The other scumteam will probably shoot someone else. Since there may have been a driveby, someone else could die as well. As a result, that's up to 4 town dead at this point (one from lynch, and then 3 KP). Personally, if I was scum, I would take the safe option and shoot someone else. With VE's vest blown, and Koshi outed as cop, there's no reason for anyone else to use vest. Perfect night for a slaughter.
4. At this point, there is a very high chance that scum will win
Okay, onto the second scenario where solstice does get lynched, which is what happened.
Soltice gets lynched, CC looks good from it because he outed a scum. Austin's alignment is still neutral, despite opposing the solstice lynch. Now let's look a bit more into CC and see why he's on the same scumteam as solstice.
After he outed solstice, all his posts were very dismissive. A lot of other people were actively engaging information, but most of CC's posts were like this:
If you read through his filter, it's like he's clearly certain that solstice is the mafia and he's unwilling to obtain more information to change his mind. It was actually other people directing the discussion on solstice. Let's look at things from CC's position for a second. If CC is actually town, the first thing I would do is to wait around to get more information. Solstice said to standby. The information coming up would be about what night actions they are going to do, and maybe it would reveal what scumteam that solstice is on. There are plenty of ways that waiting for more information can be more helpful to town. But CC outed solstice right away. This doesn't make sense from a strategic perspective. Let's also look at how he responded. If I was CC, I would totally be excited about the whole thing and lead the interrogation on solstice. However we see the opposite. CC was basically just standing on the sidelines pitching in heckles. That doesn't make sense to me if CC was town. Now let's look at it if CC was mafia. That could totally work, because the naturally behavior for CC would be to be purely dismissive of solstice, and limit involvement. That would be the most obvious way to try to distance yourself from solstice the most, and prevent the worst case scenario where you make yourself seem to friendly with solstice. So my behavioral analysis is that CC is on the same scumteam as solstice.
My last read is on VA. I had thought all along that he's scum, but not sure on which scumteam. Tbh, back when I posted the few reads I had on VA, they might have been good indications on why VA is more likely scum than anyone else, but right now, 'more likely' is not good enough. But I can't really pull off my tunnel onto VA simply because his defense was that anyone who believes me is an idiot. It would be the incorrect play for me to let him come away as town with that kind of defense. Reading through his filter, he is still very scummy, and with the current information we have now, I don't feel comfortable lynching him yet, but I would definitely like to focus more on him after we see who dies during the night phase.
Right now, my belief is that VA is the last banger, and the other scumteam is solstice/austinmcc/CC. I will be adding onto me previous read which is here:
Just a recap from my last read, I think that the whole solstice fake-cop claim was planned out, and it is a fair assumption that both other scum teammates are a part of the plan. There are two outcomes to the plan - solstice gets lynched, or someone random gets lynched. There's also the outcome that Koshi gets lynched, but at that point mafia has such a huge advantage, so no point analyzing that scenario.
I think the motivation behind the whole fake cop-claim was that the scumteam believed there was a good chance that solstice would be lynched by the end of the day. This plan would enable a better chance of solstice's survival, or it would make austinmcc and CC look more town. They had to pull it off at the beginning of the day because if solstice gets voted heavily on and then they try to pull it off, then it may look suspicious.
Firstly, the scenario where solstice does not get lynched, and the lynch gets pushed onto someone else. We have to go back and look at who has been pushing to lynch outside solstice/koshi, and who has been agreeing with it. Outside people who have already been confirmed as town, only austinmcc fits that bill. He was pushing pretty hard that the best case is for neither koshi nor solstice to be lynched. He posted a lot of math explaining why that's the best option, which ended up in this conclusion:
If austinmcc were scum with solstice, I would totally expect that the math would be correct, otherwise why would they go for it in the first place? That makes sense if they were both scum. But what if austinmcc was town? Would he support lynching outside of solstice? Personally, after I read the entire argument of why solstice is cop, it was still fairly obvious to me that solstice is the mafia, and I think it was fairly obvious to everyone else as well. But what happens if we leave them both alive? That would mean Koshi would probably die. Koshi's choices are to block KP, shoot solstice, bus solstice, or bus a random. Scum can shoot Koshi, shoot someone else, or shoot solstice in anticipation of a bus. For Koshi, blocking KP would only stall one turn in favor of scum, so that shouldn't be an option. Shooting solstice would leave him vulnerable to the bangers. Bussing with solstice leaves him vulnerable to the scum shooting solstice. Bussing with a random person would be countered by the scum shooting someone at random. Koshi will probably have to bus himself no matter what. No matter what option Koshi does, it will either be a coinflip or it will be bad for town. In all scenarios, either Koshi dies, or a few town die.
Just to sum that up, here's what I think the scum plan was:
1. Push for lynching someone other than Koshi and solstice
2. Since austinmcc is directing the vote, it will probably end up being a town, so 1 town lynched
3. During nighttime, either shoot solstice to gamble on a bus, or take the safe option and shoot VE, rayn, or oats. The other scumteam will probably shoot someone else. Since there may have been a driveby, someone else could die as well. As a result, that's up to 4 town dead at this point (one from lynch, and then 3 KP). Personally, if I was scum, I would take the safe option and shoot someone else. With VE's vest blown, and Koshi outed as cop, there's no reason for anyone else to use vest. Perfect night for a slaughter.
4. At this point, there is a very high chance that scum will win
Okay, onto the second scenario where solstice does get lynched, which is what happened.
Soltice gets lynched, CC looks good from it because he outed a scum. Austin's alignment is still neutral, despite opposing the solstice lynch. Now let's look a bit more into CC and see why he's on the same scumteam as solstice.
After he outed solstice, all his posts were very dismissive. A lot of other people were actively engaging information, but most of CC's posts were like this:
If you read through his filter, it's like he's clearly certain that solstice is the mafia and he's unwilling to obtain more information to change his mind. It was actually other people directing the discussion on solstice. Let's look at things from CC's position for a second. If CC is actually town, the first thing I would do is to wait around to get more information. Solstice said to standby. The information coming up would be about what night actions they are going to do, and maybe it would reveal what scumteam that solstice is on. There are plenty of ways that waiting for more information can be more helpful to town. But CC outed solstice right away. This doesn't make sense from a strategic perspective. Let's also look at how he responded. If I was CC, I would totally be excited about the whole thing and lead the interrogation on solstice. However we see the opposite. CC was basically just standing on the sidelines pitching in heckles. That doesn't make sense to me if CC was town. Now let's look at it if CC was mafia. That could totally work, because the naturally behavior for CC would be to be purely dismissive of solstice, and limit involvement. That would be the most obvious way to try to distance yourself from solstice the most, and prevent the worst case scenario where you make yourself seem to friendly with solstice. So my behavioral analysis is that CC is on the same scumteam as solstice.
My last read is on VA. I had thought all along that he's scum, but not sure on which scumteam. Tbh, back when I posted the few reads I had on VA, they might have been good indications on why VA is more likely scum than anyone else, but right now, 'more likely' is not good enough. But I can't really pull off my tunnel onto VA simply because his defense was that anyone who believes me is an idiot. It would be the incorrect play for me to let him come away as town with that kind of defense. Reading through his filter, he is still very scummy, and with the current information we have now, I don't feel comfortable lynching him yet, but I would definitely like to focus more on him after we see who dies during the night phase.
This wasn't all that long.
First of all:
Why would you believe solstice pulled the fakeclaim plan because he was getting lynched? I don't really show much thread sentiment showing that was going to be the case. It could have been a lot of people.
Your read on CC's reasoning is hella weak. If I was town and caught scum in a lie I would 100% have been acting the way he did. Look at how I acted at the start in Basterd after catching Fuba when he tried to steal my survivor claim. No, I wasn't town then but I was acting for town. I had hella fun with it. I screamed at people to lynch him.
Your read on VA...he's scummy because......why?
This is what we waited for?
Really?
Definitely won't be joining another mafia game until I have more free time.
