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On September 04 2013 01:45 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2013 01:33 Sn0_Man wrote:
I simply acknowledged that TO YOU any support from hapa probably doesn't even help my case.
There is a reason I quoted myself and left it at that. You are misconstruing me as paranoid and looking for weird motivations in simple posts. I know you think hapa is scum so while its important that my post was relevant to somebody who was at the time a town leader, I figured I'd let you know who it was so you can make your own judgements.
Stop tunnelling. Fair enough, what is so difficult regarding me then, what is scummy about me and what is townie?
Hopeless was scummy and played quite poorly. Then he disappeared. That is a lot of points against you. You yourself are spammy annoying and aren't trying to promote a town atmosphere (as in you do weird shit in the thread just for the hell of it).
On the other hand, you were townier than either of the people we lynched IMO. And I find it hard to get a real read on you past "not really doing anything helpful". And I can't really explain this exactly but I had thought at least the D1 voting would have gone down differently had you been scum. Seeing how D2 went though, that doesn't help your cause much.
I'm afraid to talk about "who I'd lynch" right now because we are gonna lose if we make any mislynch at all. Since we *must* lynch scum, I can't think "I would lynch X" it has to be "X is scum and we ARE lynching them". I'm not at that level of certainty with anybody at all right now. Its hard to invest too much into the game until this daypost though.
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On September 04 2013 02:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why don't you want to talk about scumreads now Sno?
Waiting for the win? Or in case you don't win you get to choose to buss or not to buss?
I'll talk to you when you can demonstrate civillity and a desire to help town by not fake-claiming at least 3 roles.
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You claimed dayvig (in-thread shot) and nightvig as well.
Claiming mason to save a townread who was then lynched anyways because he wasn't doing anything for town is only harming town tbh. I'd also have been less interested in lynching oats if you didn't mason-claim to save him. Also the game is unreadable when you maintain your posting rate of very nearly 1/4 the thread.
Not that you care, but I was happy to discuss reads and play the game Day 1. Weekends are simply AFK periods for me where I read but don't post.
Oops I forgot. I'm not talking to you.
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raynpelikoneet
Sylencia
Onegu
yamato77
Tutankoopa/Thrawn
marvellosity
For there almost certainly being 3 scum in those 6 players this game sure is hard.
Debears wanted to lynch rayn until he got modkilled, and I agree that rayn's vet claim makes *no* sense given the conditional nature of all the power roles we know of so far (admittedly the scum RB doesn't seem very conditional).
However, If we mislynch today the water level hits 1000 no matter what (based on my understanding of how the water mechanic is working) so... I feel like there are too many unknowns for a rayn lynch right now.
Lynching yamato is surprisingly attractive right now given that his 3-man scumteam of last night are all town, although I'm willing to see what he can come up with on the "mulligan". I mean, his activity has distinctly spiked compared to his last 3 consecutive scum-games which gives me a few misgivings, but I'm willing to believe that he is easily capable of putting on that one spat with marv/hapa at the start then calming down as scum.
My gut says sylencia is another real candidate, at least in part because of how smoothly the lynch slid off of him D1 when its clear that the only 2 lynch candidates D1 that could possibly be scum were thrawn and him.
Other than that, most of what I have to say is simply that this thread would be 18 million times easier to read and easier for town to solve if rayn didn't feel the need to ruin it constantly :/ Marv managed to inflate his filter by 3 or so pages purely calling rayn a dumbass, which is entirely correct but also makes it harder to really follow marv and it's hard not to have some suspicions there when the game has gone so poorly.
Sorry that post was mostly just me typing whatever came into my head.
PS: Useless setup speculation: It's safe to say that scum NK's are worth 50 water, since they achieved their NK tonight and it balanced-out perfectly with our doctor save. In addition, for balance reasons it prevents town losing D2 if town mislynches twice (which we did). As such, while I'm really unsure if it would help town much, a no-lynch isn't too unreasonable an option. Admittedly all that happens is we lose our doctor (ugh) but I'm willing to assume that he will be roleblocked and killed in fairly short order anyway so this isn't too huge a loss. The problem is that we need his insight for as long as possible. TL;DR we are at MyLo not Lylo or w/e. If we mislynch we lose but if we no-lynch we don't lose on the spot.
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Believe it or not I went through the filter of virtually every living player to make that. And really, what I found out was that rayn made the thread a disaster. I'm somewhat tempted to blame part of that on marv (and I guess myself) and call marv scum but I don't see any real tells beyond "failing miserably to catch scum". Which the entire thread is mostly guilty of (I can't deny, rayn is probably the only person who could potentially have been mostly correct so far, though I'm finding it hard to believe).
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A mafia doctor that makes the water level go *down*? or how else are you explaining the water level netting -100 last night after debears's action AND there being a "successful" NK?
Yeah ur full of it.
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From OP:
On August 22 2013 06:29 Dandel Ion wrote:
Nightkills affect the point total. There are roles with potential of affecting the point total
That is pretty clear lol. I certainly don't blindly trust claims (see: rayn's BS), but I do trust obviously true ones. Anyway, I find it disturbing that this is what you feel is the most important point to bring forward after your "mulligan".
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On September 05 2013 01:19 yamato77 wrote:
It's possible that this is a valid explanation, however. Still, one can never be too cautious. We lose on a mislynch.
Sure but trying to expand our lynch options to obvious town hapa is not "being cautious" its increasing our chances of a mislynch aka losing on the spot.
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I can wait, but so far your "mulligan" feels a lot more like:
Well of my 3 man "scum-team" (aka mislynch-roster), 2 have proven themselves or flipped town. I really need an excuse to 180 on everything so... "Mulligan" time.
It is true, town in the same situation does the same thing, but I really don't see town starting off with some BS about hapa not being confirmed town  .
Voting far less informative this game than I had hoped since Day 1 was fairly "runaway" with 8 votes to 3, and day 2 was a "close race" between 2 townies. However, if you can spot anything really useful I'd love to hear it. I do somewhat feel like Syl and Thrawn look a bit bad from day 1 voting, but nothing too conclusive.
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Oooo. Hows it compare/contrast to last game where the only scummer he ever had his vote on (as a townie) was you?
Either way, looking forward to this expose of yours.
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Any analysis on marv is plenty welcome. I agree that voting was kinda messed up. I had hoped it would be more informative but as I've said the fact that so many early candidates have been revealed as townies makes it hard to nail down scum motivation in any particular vote.
Rayn plays too fucked up as town for me to think he is certainly scum almost regardless, and I'm hoping to be very certain about today's lynch. As I've said, I don't see myself voting for his lynch today.
Regarding everybody else, well my stance is still basically "convince me". I honestly re-read a LOT of this game today and it isn't really becoming much clearer.
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Iunno, I can see his reasons for lynching tofu and slam and I can see why its hard for him to establish scum candidates. He plays like this pretty much every game yeah?
He certainly doesn't look good, but as we've covered, town needs a sure thing here. Sell me.
PS: WTF why is nobody else around? :/
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Rayn I've been saying I don't wish to lynch you. The thread isn't going very fast right now, you can afford to read it properly I think.
I agree with your perspective on marv.
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Yay hapa is here.
Hapa I need somebody to sheep. Yam and rayn aren't any good for that right now. Find me scum!
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Rayn, you are heavily misconstruing this again.
Yam's scumreads: me/hapa/slam
New information pertaining to that: hapa confirmed doctor, slam flipped town.
When 2/3 of one's scumteam becomes confirmed town some 180's become necessary since one clearly wasn't going in the right direction.
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Correct. I've read the thread and I'm pretty stumped.
The person I'm most sure about being scum is probably marv, but I have the least real reasons for that. It's part gut and part the fact that I feel like the thread ought to make more sense than it does and I'm laying that at his feet.
I thought Slam/Tofu/Oats were all scum and I came up dry 3 times :/
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Well its fairly clear who sciberbia thought was scum.
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@rayn:
Thrawn is admittedly AFK which isn't helping anything. I thought he had some contributions earlier though.
Your last post made more sense about yamato. PS If yamato is scum I'm thinking its him/thrawn/marv which makes u look disgustingly smart 
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On September 05 2013 06:34 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2013 06:28 Sn0_Man wrote:
Correct. I've read the thread and I'm pretty stumped.
The person I'm most sure about being scum is probably marv, but I have the least real reasons for that. It's part gut and part the fact that I feel like the thread ought to make more sense than it does and I'm laying that at his feet.
I thought Slam/Tofu/Oats were all scum and I came up dry 3 times :/ You seemed much more active in Persona 4 as town. Why the difference in activity this game? Also, when Yamato was tunneling me in the middle of the game, you basically said this: Show nested quote +On September 03 2013 06:57 Sn0_Man wrote:
Hmmm apologies all for nonexistant activity. Weekends and all that.
Lets lynch oats. Hapa seems like a terrible lynch. Slam is an acceptable substitute but I don't feel like we are learning as much if we lynch him. He feels coinflippy whereas Oats feels scummy.
##Vote: Oatsmaster ... and left it at that. There was very little explanation to your read, and you seemed more dismissive of the suspicions on me than anything else. Can you explain your thought process a bit more?
You will notice in persona I also afk'd an entire cycle over the weekend just like this game.
In persona we lacked intelligent townies so I put forth what I could. Town was swallowing rayn's garbage so I essentially fought rayn (another townie) for days until he was NK'd then the game was literally already solved based on voting and such. I just had to bash some of the dumber townies into seeing it. PS I was wildly off on my reads most of the game anyway.
This game there are plenty of smarter people so I don't need to get into shouting matches regarding awful lynches since nobody is dumb enough to listen to rayn very much. Unfortunately I'm not good at actually identifying scum from their play (see: persona) so I kinda suffer along and try to help where I can.
Re: your lynch of course you were a terrible lynch. A) you were town and B) you were present, helpful, and discussing stuff.
Oats wasn't the latter and didn't look the former. I would have defended marv in much the same way yesterday I think. No point in lynching potentially useful assets to town when there were options like oats.
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EPT
